Oswaldo Cabrera

3B Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 28 S/R 6'0" / 200 lbs AAA HR +14% Svc 3.396 · Ctrl thru 2029

Overview

AAA40-MANArb-1FA 2030

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	25	MLBNYY	326	.247/.299/.365	8	4	83	0.4
2025	26	MLBNYY	122	.243/.325/.308	1	0	82	-0.1
2026	27	AAAScranton/Wilk…	524	.288/.351/.444	19	12	80	—	.251/.296/.367
2026	27	MLBCIN	25	.182/.217/.273	0	1	24	0.0
2027PROJ10% MLB	28	MLBNYY	24	.230/.284/.343	1	0	75	-0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	29	MLBNYY	101	.227/.281/.336	2	1	72	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.4 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2029Service3.396First FA2030

2027Arb-1$0.2M2028Arb-2$0.4M2029Ext$0.6M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Speed42

Avg EV39

Bat Spd31

xwOBA29

Barrel%10

CompsSergio Alcántara (age 28) · Wilmer Difo (age 28) · Cristhian Adames (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 7575vR 75

AVG/OBP/SLG.230 / .284 / .343

PA24

HR1

K%25

BB%8

BABIP286

ISO182

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT50

xAVG

390.243

POWER35

Barrel%

102.6

Avg EV

3988.3

Bat Spd

3169.3

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED45

Sprint

4227.1

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 448 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

105

343

—

wRC+

▶▶R

wOBA

234

309

▶▶R

ISO

040

123

▶▶R

BABIP

283

293

▶R

22.9%

18.7%

▶▶R

BB%

4.8%

7.9%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2022

Service 3.396 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$0.2M	+0.0	$0.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2016	17	ROK	Pulaski Yankees	—	218	197	68	15	4	4	14	21	4	7	3	345	400	523	923	178	368	10	6	401	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	353	318	77	11	0	4	26	46	1	6	0	242	301	314	616	72	268	13	7	276	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	526	485	111	24	1	6	28	66	3	4	9	229	275	320	595	91	251	13	5	264	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A+	Tampa Tarpons	—	493	450	117	29	0	8	33	105	2	10	8	260	313	378	691	118	318	21	7	306	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	36	30	15	2	1	5	5	9	1	1	0	500	583	1.133	1.717	633	625	25	14	698	245	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	478	437	112	29	1	24	36	118	0	20	5	256	313	492	805	236	295	25	8	348	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	MLB	New York Yankees	—	171	154	38	8	1	6	15	44	0	3	2	247	314	429	742	182	305	26	9	325	104	+1	-0	+4	-4	+4	0.4
2022	23	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	208	183	48	12	3	8	19	55	3	10	3	262	341	492	833	230	331	26	9	361	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	MLB	New York Yankees	—	330	298	63	11	0	5	25	72	2	8	0	211	277	299	576	87	260	22	8	261	60	-16	+2	-2	-5	+7	-1.5
2023	24	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	46	40	9	1	0	2	5	9	1	2	1	225	326	400	726	175	241	20	11	328	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	INTL	Tiburones de La Guaira	—	98	86	23	3	2	0	9	12	2	1	1	267	351	349	699	81	311	12	9	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	MLB	New York Yankees	—	326	299	74	11	0	8	21	63	1	4	2	247	299	365	664	117	286	19	6	294	83	-6	+0	+2	+1	+7	0.4
2025	26	MLB	New York Yankees	—	122	107	26	4	0	1	11	25	2	0	1	243	325	308	633	65	305	20	9	290	82	-3	-0	-1	+0	+3	-0.1
2026	27	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	25	22	4	2	0	0	1	9	0	1	0	182	217	273	490	91	308	36	4	203	24	-2	+0	+0	+2	+1	0.0
2026	27	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	524	466	134	14	1	19	45	107	1	12	1	288	351	444	795	157	330	20	9	347	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	974	880	205	36	1	20	73	213	5	16	5	233	295	344	640	111	283	22	7	285	79	-24	+1	+3	-6	+21	-0.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2016	17	ROK MLE	Pulaski Yankees	—	218	202	57	12	3	3	9	30	4	7	3	282	326	416	741	134	311	14	4	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	353	327	74	9	0	4	17	64	1	6	0	226	267	291	557	64	257	18	5	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	526	495	105	22	1	6	18	89	3	4	9	212	244	297	541	85	237	17	3	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A+ MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	493	459	96	27	0	7	24	151	2	10	8	209	252	314	565	105	282	31	5	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	36	31	13	2	1	3	4	11	1	1	0	419	500	839	1.339	419	548	31	11	531	245	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	—	478	448	99	27	1	18	25	141	0	20	5	221	262	406	668	185	275	29	5	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	171	154	38	8	1	6	15	44	0	3	2	247	314	429	742	182	305	26	9	322	104	+1	-0	+4	-4	+4	0.4
2022	23	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	208	189	42	10	3	6	13	66	3	10	3	222	283	402	685	180	294	32	6	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	330	299	63	11	0	5	24	72	2	8	0	211	274	298	572	87	260	22	7	257	60	-16	+2	-2	-5	+7	-1.5
2023	24	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	46	42	8	1	0	1	3	11	1	2	1	190	261	286	547	95	225	24	7	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	326	299	73	11	0	7	21	63	1	4	2	244	296	351	647	107	286	19	6	292	83	-6	+0	+2	+1	+7	0.4
2025	26	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	122	107	26	4	0	1	11	25	2	0	1	243	325	308	633	65	305	20	9	289	82	-3	-0	-1	+0	+3	-0.1
2026	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	25	22	4	2	0	0	1	9	0	1	0	182	217	273	490	91	308	36	4	204	24	-2	+0	+0	+2	+1	0.0
2026	27	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	524	482	121	12	1	14	30	128	1	12	1	251	296	367	664	116	297	24	6	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	17	ROK MLE	Pulaski Yankees	—	218	202	57	12	3	3	9	30	4	7	3	282	326	416	741	134	316	14	4	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	17	ROK RAW	Pulaski Yankees	—	218	197	68	15	4	4	14	21	4	7	3	345	400	523	923	178	368	10	6	401	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	353	327	74	9	0	4	17	64	1	6	0	226	267	291	557	64	266	18	5	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	—	353	318	77	11	0	4	26	46	1	6	0	242	301	314	616	72	268	13	7	276	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	526	495	105	22	1	6	18	89	3	4	9	212	244	297	541	85	244	17	3	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	—	526	485	111	24	1	6	28	66	3	4	9	229	275	320	595	91	251	13	5	264	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A+ MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	493	459	96	27	0	7	24	151	2	10	8	209	252	314	565	105	290	31	5	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A+ RAW	Tampa Tarpons	—	493	450	117	29	0	8	33	105	2	10	8	260	313	378	691	118	318	21	7	306	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	514	479	112	29	2	21	29	151	1	21	5	234	279	434	713	200	294	29	6	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	514	467	127	31	2	29	41	127	1	21	5	272	332	533	865	261	312	25	8	373	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	379	343	79	18	4	11	28	110	3	13	5	230	294	402	696	172	304	29	7	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	379	337	86	20	4	14	34	99	3	13	5	255	329	463	792	208	319	26	9	345	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	474	428	89	15	0	8	35	104	5	11	2	208	276	299	575	91	255	22	7	258	61	-22	+1	-2	-5	+10	-1.8
2023	24	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	474	424	95	15	2	7	39	93	5	11	2	224	297	318	615	94	270	20	8	279	61	-22	+1	-2	-5	+10	-1.8
2024	25	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	326	299	73	11	0	7	21	63	1	4	2	244	296	351	647	107	284	19	6	292	83	-6	+0	+2	+1	+7	0.4
2024	25	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	—	326	299	74	11	0	8	21	63	1	4	2	247	299	365	664	117	286	19	6	294	83	-6	+0	+2	+1	+7	0.4
2025	26	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	122	107	26	4	0	1	11	25	2	0	1	243	325	308	633	65	305	20	9	289	82	-3	-0	-1	+0	+3	-0.1
2025	26	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	—	122	107	26	4	0	1	11	25	2	0	1	243	325	308	633	65	305	20	9	290	82	-3	-0	-1	+0	+3	-0.1
2026	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	549	504	125	14	1	14	31	137	1	13	1	248	293	363	656	115	307	25	6	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	549	488	138	16	1	19	46	116	1	13	1	283	345	436	782	154	329	21	8	340	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	17	ROK MLE	Pulaski Yankees	—	218	203	57	12	3	3	9	30	4	7	3	281	326	414	739	133	311	14	4	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	353	332	74	9	0	4	17	64	1	6	0	223	267	286	553	63	257	18	5	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	526	500	105	22	1	6	18	89	3	4	9	210	244	294	538	84	237	17	3	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A+ MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	493	464	96	27	0	7	24	151	2	10	8	207	252	310	562	103	282	31	5	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	514	479	112	29	2	21	29	151	1	21	5	234	279	434	713	200	294	29	6	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	379	345	79	18	4	11	28	110	3	13	5	229	294	400	694	171	299	29	7	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	474	431	89	15	0	8	35	104	5	11	2	206	276	297	573	90	256	22	7	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	326	301	73	11	0	7	21	63	1	4	2	243	296	349	645	106	286	19	6	292	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	122	108	26	4	0	1	11	25	2	0	1	241	325	306	631	65	305	20	9	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	549	512	125	14	1	14	31	137	1	13	1	244	293	357	650	113	297	25	6	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	25	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	326	301	73	11	0	7	21	63	1	4	2	243	296	349	645	106	286	19	6	292	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	122	108	26	4	0	1	11	25	2	0	1	241	325	306	631	65	305	20	9	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	549	512	125	14	1	14	31	137	1	13	1	244	293	357	650	113	297	25	6	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	28	MLB MLE	NYY	10%	469	433	98	13	1	10	31	116	2	8	2	229	283	337	621	109	286	25	7	279	75	-14	+1	+0	+2	+10	0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	28	MLB CTX	NYY	10%	24	22	6	1	0	1	2	6	0	0	0	230	284	343	628	113	286	25	8	281	75	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	NYY	27%	368	339	77	10	1	8	24	92	2	5	2	226	280	331	611	105	284	25	7	275	72	-12	+0	-1	+1	+8	-0.4
2028	29	MLB CTX	NYY	27%	101	93	21	3	0	2	7	25	0	1	0	227	281	336	618	109	284	25	7	277	72	-3	+0	-0	+0	+2	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1075	973	226	39	1	22	80	238	5	17	5	232	294	342	636	110	283	22	7	285	71	-27	+1	+3	-5	+23	-0.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	588	137	24	1	13	48	144	3	10	3	233	294	344	637	111	284	22	7	285	71	-17	+1	+2	-3	+14	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	4560	4201	964	178	13	95	263	1075	26	98	39	229	279	346	625	116	283	24	6	273	71	-43	+2	+2	-3	+34	-0.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	599	138	25	2	14	37	153	4	14	6	230	280	349	629	119	283	24	6	273	71	-18	+1	+1	-1	+14	-0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 524 PAwOBA .343 → .287 (−55)K% 20.4% → 24.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.42%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	24.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.40%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.003	5.81%
HBP% /PA	0.19%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.18%
Singles /BIP	27.86%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.994	×1.003	25.81%
Doubles /BIP	3.90%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.994	×1.003	3.23%
Triples /BIP	0.28%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.994	×1.003	0.27%
Home runs /BIP	5.29%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.003	3.72%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.

Result: wOBA .343 → .287; ISO .157 → .117; BABIP .330 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 46 PAwOBA .320 → .263 (−57)K% 19.6% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.57%	÷0.998	×1.200	—	—	23.53%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.87%	÷1.059	×0.690	—	×1.048	7.42%
HBP% /PA	2.17%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	2.14%
Singles /BIP	19.35%	÷1.029	×0.930	—	×1.048	18.32%
Doubles /BIP	3.23%	÷0.903	×0.830	—	×1.048	3.11%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.048	×0.970	—	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.45%	÷1.017	×0.700	—	×1.048	4.65%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 106, 2B 81, 3B 110, K 100, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .320 → .263; ISO .175 → .131; BABIP .241 → .225. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 208 PAwOBA .352 → .289 (−64)K% 26.4% → 31.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.44%	÷1.001	×1.200	—	—	31.69%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.13%	÷1.066	×0.690	—	×1.050	6.21%
HBP% /PA	1.44%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	1.42%
Singles /BIP	19.53%	÷1.047	×0.930	×0.981	×1.050	17.86%
Doubles /BIP	9.38%	÷0.988	×0.830	×0.981	×1.050	8.11%
Triples /BIP	2.34%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.981	×1.050	2.34%
Home runs /BIP	6.25%	÷1.006	×0.700	—	×1.050	4.57%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 109, 2B 98, 3B 100, K 100, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.

Result: wOBA .352 → .289; ISO .230 → .183; BABIP .331 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AASomerset Patriots · 478 PAwOBA .340 → .287 (−54)K% 24.7% → 29.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.69%	÷1.024	×1.220	—	—	29.42%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.53%	÷1.036	×0.690	—	×1.042	5.23%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.850	—	×1.042	0.00%
Singles /BIP	18.18%	÷1.008	×0.940	×0.964	×1.042	17.04%
Doubles /BIP	9.09%	÷0.905	×0.870	×0.964	×1.042	8.78%
Triples /BIP	0.31%	÷0.900	×0.920	×0.964	×1.042	0.32%
Home runs /BIP	7.52%	÷1.053	×0.780	—	×1.042	5.81%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 102, 2B 81, 3B 80, K 105, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.

Result: wOBA .340 → .287; ISO .236 → .192; BABIP .295 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 36 PAwOBA .678 → .531 (−147)K% 25.0% → 30.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.00%	÷0.993	×1.200	—	—	30.20%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.89%	÷0.973	×0.690	—	×1.050	10.34%
HBP% /PA	2.78%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	2.74%
Singles /BIP	33.33%	÷0.974	×0.930	—	×1.050	33.42%
Doubles /BIP	9.52%	÷0.915	×0.830	—	×1.050	9.07%
Triples /BIP	4.76%	÷1.150	×0.920	—	×1.050	4.00%
Home runs /BIP	23.81%	÷1.149	×0.700	—	×1.050	15.23%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 130, 1B 95, 2B 83, 3B 130, K 99, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .678 → .531; ISO .633 → .427; BABIP .625 → .548. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Tampa Tarpons · 493 PAwOBA .301 → .246 (−54)K% 21.3% → 30.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.30%	÷0.989	×1.420	—	—	30.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.49%	÷1.055	×0.750	—	×1.042	4.81%
HBP% /PA	0.41%	—	×0.930	—	×1.042	0.39%
Singles /BIP	23.19%	÷1.072	×0.920	×0.950	×1.042	19.69%
Doubles /BIP	8.41%	÷0.954	×0.960	×0.950	×1.042	8.38%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.810	×0.950	×1.042	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.32%	÷0.960	×0.880	—	×1.042	2.21%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 114, 2B 91, 3B 80, K 98, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .301 → .246; ISO .118 → .106; BABIP .318 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ACharleston RiverDogs · 526 PAwOBA .260 → .233 (−27)K% 12.5% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.55%	÷0.991	×1.340	—	—	16.97%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.32%	÷1.092	×0.660	—	×1.045	3.36%
HBP% /PA	0.57%	—	×0.770	—	×1.045	0.46%
Singles /BIP	19.09%	÷1.020	×0.920	×1.012	×1.045	18.21%
Doubles /BIP	5.73%	÷0.961	×0.820	×1.012	×1.045	5.17%
Triples /BIP	0.24%	÷1.150	×0.940	×1.012	×1.045	0.21%
Home runs /BIP	1.43%	÷0.811	×0.820	—	×1.045	1.51%

Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 62, 1B 104, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 98, BB 118 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.

Result: wOBA .260 → .233; ISO .091 → .087; BABIP .251 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 ACharleston RiverDogs · 353 PAwOBA .272 → .242 (−30)K% 13.0% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.03%	÷0.958	×1.340	—	—	18.22%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.37%	÷1.051	×0.660	—	×1.050	4.86%
HBP% /PA	0.28%	—	×0.770	—	×1.050	0.23%
Singles /BIP	22.79%	÷0.978	×0.920	×0.994	×1.050	22.36%
Doubles /BIP	4.04%	÷1.010	×0.820	×0.994	×1.050	3.42%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.940	×0.994	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.47%	÷0.945	×0.820	—	×1.050	1.34%

Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 96, 2B 102, 3B 80, K 92, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.0 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.

Result: wOBA .272 → .242; ISO .072 → .063; BABIP .268 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#2Scott Leius'90-'99 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,727 PA	2.6	1,727	28	16	237*	306*	358*	+5	+5	1.5	2.1
/162	664	11	6	+2.0	+1.9	0.6	pk7: 3
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	1.6	1,073	23	17	233	291	344	+4	+4	0.9	0.9
/162	664	14	10	+2.4	+2.5	0.5	pk7: 1
#4Phil Linz'62-'68 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,518 PA	2.3	1,518	11	13	238*	301*	338*	+10	-0	0.7	0.7
/162	664	5	6	+4.3	-0.2	0.3	pk7: 1
#5Joe McEwing'98-'06 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,963 PA	3.0	1,963	25	33	240*	289*	341*	-4	+8	-1.1	-0.3
/162	664	8	11	-1.2	+2.9	-0.4	pk7: 0
#6Abraham Torolast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,561 PA	2.4	1,561	39	16	220	282	351	-1	-8	-0.5	-0.5
/162	664	17	7	-0.2	-3.2	-0.2	pk7: -0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Oswaldo Cabrera (OGILVIE)	28	50	35	45	50	227/281/334	108	286	5	4	25%	7%	75	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Sergio Alcántara 2024 · MLB	28	45→55	44→45	46→50	47	220/289/332	112	295	12	4	28%	9%	77	-0.3	218/300/316	98	291	7	7	25%	10%	77	-0.3	211/302/300	89	282	4	8	24%	11%	72	-0.4
✕Wilmer Difo 2020 · MLB	28	48→56	41→45	52→55	47	233/288/335	102	287	9	14	22%	7%	76	-0.4	234/290/338	104	291	10	9	22%	7%	78	-0.3	216/273/305	88	267	8	15	21%	7%	63	-0.7
✕Cristhian Adames 2019 · MLB	28	46→56	41→45	44→50	46	224/272/326	102	267	9	7	20%	6%	68	-1.0	229/286/364	135	282	14	8	23%	7%	83	+0.1	219/288/386	166	271	17	4	25%	9%	86	+0.1
✕Tommy Murphy 2008 · MLB	28	48→53	43→45	49→60	40	232/274/349	116	297	9	18	25%	5%	74	-0.5	225/277/314	89	300	6	28	25%	6%	68	-1.0	223/279/299	76	298	5	36	25%	7%	61	-1.1
✕Jeff Bianchi 2015 · MLB	28	47→57	40→45	45→50	42	230/268/317	87	281	8	10	21%	5%	64	-1.3	219/264/294	75	281	6	9	23%	6%	57	-1.8	213/257/256	43	279	2	7	23%	6%	43	-0.9
✕Alejandro Gonzalez 2014 · AAA	28	49→52	42→45	42→50	46	235/307/339	104	299	9	8	24%	7%	85	+0.2	232/299/331	99	306	9	6	26%	6%	80	-0.1	227/291/310	83	311	7	4	27%	5%	71	-0.5
✕Pedro Florimón 2014 · MLB	27	47→53	42→45	48→55	43	227/278/328	101	297	9	15	26%	6%	71	-0.8	209/261/311	102	293	8	20	30%	6%	61	-1.5	217/272/330	113	320	10	11	33%	6%	68	-0.5
✕Dan Nelson 2011 · AAA	27	46→48	44→45	45→50	48	227/286/343	116	274	11	10	21%	7%	78	-0.3	238/292/342	104	288	9	7	20%	7%	80	-0.2	252/303/342	90	298	7	2	17%	6%	82	-0.0
✕Mitchell Tolman 2022 · AAA	28	45→47	44→45	47→50	42	221/286/344	123	291	11	8	27%	6%	78	-0.3	229/299/360	131	293	12	9	25%	8%	87	+0.4	226/302/356	130	284	11	7	23%	8%	85	+0.2
✕Manuel Bobadilla 2012 · AAA	28	48	41→40	42→45	50	233/300/328	95	280	9	5	20%	8%	80	-0.2	219/292/311	92	292	8	7	26%	7%	74	-0.6	205/269/292	87	265	9	1	25%	6%	59	-0.5
✕Chuckie Robinson 2023 · MLB	28	43→53	45	45	41	216/266/332	116	273	13	7	26%	6%	68	-1.0	225/272/327	102	293	11	6	26%	5%	69	-0.9	224/272/312	88	296	10	4	27%	5%	63	-0.8
✕Andrew Beattie 2006 · AAA	28	50→51	43→45	46→50	48	239/303/359	120	312	9	10	25%	8%	88	+0.4	227/288/353	126	291	13	11	25%	8%	81	-0.1	221/279/344	123	277	14	11	25%	7%	74	-0.3
✕Rafael Ynoa 2015 · MLB	27	51→55	38→40	44→55	46	241/285/329	88	292	5	11	19%	6%	74	-0.6	224/265/302	78	286	3	9	22%	5%	59	-1.6	211/253/275	64	273	2	8	22%	5%	47	-1.8
✕Charles Thomas 2007 · MLB	28	46→49	42→45	46→50	46	227/290/323	97	279	10	13	22%	7%	75	-0.5	216/271/307	91	281	9	13	25%	6%	63	-1.3	193/240/253	60	258	5	14	26%	5%	37	-1.6
✕Jan Vázquez 2018 · AAA	27	48	41→40	45	45	230/300/327	98	299	8	9	25%	7%	80	-0.2	220/295/329	109	301	10	7	28%	7%	79	-0.2	176/270/261	86	251	9	0	31%	8%	54	-0.6
✕Jaime Pedroza 2016 · AAA	29	48→54	42→45	46→50	42	235/279/345	110	297	9	10	24%	5%	75	-0.5	233/297/347	114	301	10	10	24%	7%	83	+0.1	227/300/331	104	290	9	8	24%	8%	83	+0.0
✕Juan Gonzalez 2010 · AAA	28	47→53	42→45	48→50	49	226/298/329	103	287	9	6	24%	8%	80	-0.2	211/283/297	86	286	6	8	26%	8%	67	-1.1	160/244/193	32	228	0	0	27%	7%	28	-0.8
✕Yariel Gonzalez 2022 · AAA	28	44→51	48→45	41→45	43	224/273/354	129	277	17	5	26%	6%	76	-0.4	211/261/325	114	268	13	8	26%	6%	65	-1.2	186/234/280	94	231	11	7	24%	5%	42	-1.9
✕Danny Mendick 2022 · MLB	28	46→47	43→45	43→50	47	229/290/338	109	280	12	8	22%	7%	78	-0.3	232/292/351	119	285	13	12	22%	7%	82	+0.0	224/281/347	123	270	13	15	22%	6%	75	-0.3
✕Blake Davis 2012 · MLB	28	46→56	41→40	45→50	43	225/265/319	95	275	8	10	22%	5%	63	-1.3	219/253/306	87	276	6	9	22%	4%	56	-1.9	212/241/286	75	267	3	7	21%	3%	44	-1.5

Oswaldo Cabrera

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps