Joey Cantillo
P
Cleveland Guardians
Age 26
LHP
6'4" / 225 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 1.0 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION101 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8998vR 107
ERA3.74
FIP3.98
K%24.9%
BB%11.2%
K-BB%13.7%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 166 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1592.0
Whiff%
p8030.0%
K%
p6224.4%
xwOBA vs
p560.306
FB+2.5 (36%)
CH+1.1 (27%)
CT (5%)
CU (26%)
SL (4%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | AZL Padres 2 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 37 | 14 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 37.8% | 16.2% | 21.6% | 0.0% | 4.50 | 1.96 | — |
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | AZL Padres 2 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 37 | 14 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 37.8% | 16.2% | 21.6% | 0.0% | 4.50 | 1.85 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 10 | 49 | 201 | 63 | 15 | 0 | 83% | 4.1 | 21.6% | 8.2% | 13.4% | 0.0% | 2.76 | 2.32 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 10 | 49 | 201 | 63 | 15 | 0 | 83% | 4.1 | 31.3% | 7.5% | 23.9% | 0.0% | 2.76 | 1.45 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 112 | 432 | 144 | 34 | 5 | 100% | 5.1 | 24.8% | 9.2% | 15.5% | 1.4% | 2.26 | 2.96 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 112 | 432 | 144 | 34 | 5 | 100% | 5.1 | 33.3% | 7.9% | 25.5% | 1.2% | 2.26 | 2.02 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 2 | 13 | 58 | 19 | 11 | 0 | 29% | 1.9 | 32.8% | 19.0% | 13.8% | 0.0% | 2.77 | 2.74 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 2 | 13 | 58 | 19 | 11 | 0 | 29% | 1.9 | 32.8% | 19.0% | 13.8% | 0.0% | 2.77 | 2.72 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | 14 | 13 | 61 | 245 | 87 | 28 | 2 | 93% | 4.3 | 28.8% | 12.6% | 16.2% | 1.0% | 1.93 | 2.79 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | 14 | 13 | 61 | 245 | 87 | 28 | 2 | 93% | 4.3 | 35.5% | 11.4% | 24.1% | 0.8% | 1.93 | 2.05 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 24 | 119 | 522 | 146 | 69 | 18 | 92% | 4.6 | 24.1% | 14.0% | 10.1% | 3.7% | 4.07 | 4.87 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 24 | 119 | 522 | 146 | 69 | 18 | 92% | 4.6 | 28.0% | 13.2% | 14.8% | 3.4% | 4.07 | 4.35 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 20 | 18 | 78 | 343 | 97 | 42 | 10 | 90% | 3.9 | 26.6% | 12.4% | 14.3% | 3.0% | 4.60 | 4.05 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 20 | 18 | 78 | 343 | 97 | 42 | 10 | 90% | 3.9 | 28.3% | 12.2% | 16.0% | 2.9% | 4.60 | 3.89 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 19 | 117 | 490 | 135 | 50 | 13 | 48% | 2.9 | 26.9% | 10.3% | 16.6% | 2.6% | 3.55 | 3.57 | +2.5 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 19 | 117 | 490 | 135 | 50 | 13 | 48% | 2.9 | 27.6% | 10.2% | 17.3% | 2.7% | 3.55 | 3.52 | +2.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 20 | 20 | 101 | 430 | 105 | 49 | 12 | 100% | 5.0 | 24.4% | 11.4% | 13.0% | 2.8% | 3.56 | 4.01 | +1.6 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CLE | 11 | 11 | 65 | 276 | 69 | 31 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.9% | 11.2% | 13.7% | 2.9% | 3.74 | 3.98 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CLE | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 68 | 31 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.9% | 11.2% | 13.7% | 2.8% | 3.74 | 3.98 | +0.5 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 166 | 706 | 174 | 80 | 20 | — | — | 24.6% | 11.3% | 13.3% | 2.8% | 3.63 | 4.00 | +2.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 166 | 703 | 174 | 80 | 20 | — | — | 24.7% | 11.4% | 13.4% | 2.8% | 3.63 | 4.00 | +2.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 13 | 13 | 75 | 318 | 79 | 36 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.0% | 11.2% | 13.7% | 2.9% | 4.28 | 4.39 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 12 | 12 | 73 | 308 | 77 | 35 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.9% | 11.4% | 13.5% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.47 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 12 | 12 | 72 | 304 | 76 | 34 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.0% | 11.2% | 13.7% | 2.9% | 4.28 | 4.39 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 12 | 12 | 69 | 291 | 72 | 33 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.9% | 11.4% | 13.5% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.47 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 99 | 77 | 441 | 1865 | 474 | 204 | 53 | 78% | 4.5 | 25.4% | 11.0% | 14.5% | 2.9% | 3.87 | 3.91 | +7.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 35 | 200 | 845 | 215 | 92 | 24 | 78% | 4.4 | 25.4% | 11.0% | 14.5% | 2.9% | 3.87 | 3.91 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 168 | 128 | 658 | 2758 | 708 | 319 | 63 | 76% | 3.9 | 25.7% | 11.6% | 14.1% | 2.3% | 3.34 | 3.65 | +13.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 39 | 200 | 839 | 215 | 97 | 19 | 76% | 3.9 | 25.7% | 11.6% | 14.1% | 2.3% | 3.34 | 3.65 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joey Cantillo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.27 | 25.8% | 10.9% | 2.9% | — | 4.43 | 24.9% | 13.6% | 148 | +0.16 | — | — | — |
| Tyler Alexander L 2027 · 5.27 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.27 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 5.0% | .289 | 5.37 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 26 | +0.10 | 5.27 | 128 | 70 |
| Ken Waldichuk L 2025 · 4.90 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.90 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 3.9% | .303 | 5.70 | 22.3% | 4.9% | 51 | +0.80 | 3.42 | 432 | 68 |
| Zach Thornton L 2024 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.22 | 20.9% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.95 | 221 | 68 |
| Zack Thompson L 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.75 | 24.1% | 14.0% | 3.5% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.03 | 402 | 68 |
| Felix Doubront L 2027 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.87 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 2.2% | .304 | 4.45 | 23.7% | 14.7% | 42 | +0.58 | 3.39 | 291 | 67 |
| Ryan Webb L 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.13 | 20.1% | 12.3% | 2.1% | .267 | 6.88 | 16.9% | -6.5% | 57 | +2.75 | 3.28 | 443 | 66 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.39 | 18.5% | 6.0% | 2.0% | .282 | 4.13 | 16.2% | 7.0% | 87 | +0.74 | 3.39 | 300 | 66 |
| Caleb Smith L 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.31 | 21.5% | 8.0% | 1.8% | .268 | 4.70 | 26.3% | 16.5% | 245 | +1.39 | 3.30 | 784 | 66 |
| Avery Weems L 2025 · 5.13 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.13 | 21.3% | 8.6% | 5.0% | .323 | 5.19 | 20.5% | 12.3% | 38 | +0.06 | 2.46 | 227 | 66 |
| Connor Prielipp L 2025 · 3.55 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.55 | 25.3% | 9.4% | 2.5% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.72 | 184 | 65 |
| Tommy Shirley L 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.30 | 19.6% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .252 | 4.86 | 13.0% | 4.2% | 106 | +1.56 | 3.30 | 147 | 65 |
| David Peterson L 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.23 | 27.2% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .331 | 3.65 | 22.0% | 12.2% | 438 | +0.42 | 2.80 | 1,080 | 65 |
| Dylan Dodd L 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.88 | 17.9% | 7.0% | 4.4% | .338 | 4.05 | 26.4% | 21.5% | 100 | -0.83 | 3.41 | 452 | 65 |
| Taylor Varnell L 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.52 | 20.1% | 10.3% | 3.3% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.89 | 248 | 64 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2024 · 4.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.93 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.93 | 116 | 64 |
| Connor Oliver L 2025 · 4.91 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.91 | 19.6% | 13.9% | 3.1% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 200 | 64 |
| Eric Surkamp L 2028 · 4.29 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.29 | 18.2% | 6.7% | 3.4% | .308 | 5.15 | 16.4% | 7.1% | 68 | +0.86 | 4.29 | 182 | 64 |
| Justin Marks L 2027 · 4.56 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .323 | 3.78 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.78 | 3.75 | 324 | 64 |
| Matt Moore L 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.18 | 21.9% | 7.8% | 3.5% | .323 | 4.45 | 19.7% | 11.3% | 475 | +0.27 | 2.82 | 845 | 63 |
| Chipper Smith L 2025 · 3.83 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.83 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 109 | 63 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 75 | 25.2% | 11.2% | 1.14 | 4.23 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |