Joey Cantillo — OGILVIE

Joey Cantillo P Cleveland Guardians

+0.7 WAR

Age 26 LHP 6'4" / 225 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.8 · 2027

ERA3.98

FIP4.17

xFIP3.73

SIERA3.66

K%26.1%

BB%10.7%

K-BB%15.4%

IP76

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.8peak

2027

K†6060

FB Velo

p1191.7

Whiff%

p6928.3%

p8729.1%

xwOBA vs

p550.307

FB+2.5 (45%)

CH+1.1 (26%)

CU (16%)

SL (9%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2017	17	ROK	AZL Padres 2	7	0	8	37	14	6	0	—	—	—	4.50	—	—
2018	18	A	Fort Wayne TinCaps	12	10	49	201	63	15	0	21.6%	8.2%	0.0%	2.76	2.32	+1.5
2019	19	A+	Lake Elsinore Storm	22	22	112	432	144	34	5	24.8%	9.2%	1.4%	2.26	2.97	+3.0
2021	21	AA	Akron RubberDucks	7	2	13	58	19	11	0	—	—	—	2.77	—	—
2022	22	AA	Akron RubberDucks	14	13	61	245	87	28	2	28.8%	12.6%	1.0%	1.93	2.79	+1.5
2023	23	AAA	Columbus Clippers	26	24	119	522	146	69	18	24.1%	14.0%	3.8%	4.07	4.90	+0.5
2024	24	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	20	18	78	343	97	42	10	26.6%	12.4%	2.9%	4.60	4.02	+1.0
2025	25	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	40	19	117	490	135	50	13	26.9%	10.3%	2.6%	3.55	3.55	+2.3
▸ 2026 Season
2026	26	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	4	4	21	81	24	9	2	29.6%	11.1%	2.5%	2.61	3.36	+0.4
ROS	26	MLB	CLE	56	—	56	235	61	25	7	26.0%	10.8%	2.8%	3.41	3.82	+0.7
2026 Total	26	MLB	CLE	—	—	76	316	85	34	9	26.9%	10.9%	2.7%	3.19	3.69	+1.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	27	MLB	CLE	14	14	76	320	83	35	9	26.0%	10.8%	2.8%	4.05	4.22	+0.7
2028	28	MLB	CLE	14	14	75	315	82	34	9	25.9%	10.8%	2.9%	4.17	4.24	+0.7
2029	29	MLB	CLE	13	13	73	308	78	34	9	25.4%	10.9%	2.9%	4.26	4.32	+0.6
2030	30	MLB	CLE	13	13	71	299	74	33	9	24.9%	11.0%	3.0%	4.35	4.41	+0.5
2031	31	MLB	CLE	12	12	68	288	70	32	9	24.3%	11.1%	3.0%	4.45	4.51	+0.4
2032	32	MLB	CLE	12	12	66	277	66	31	9	23.7%	11.3%	3.1%	4.56	4.63	+0.3
2033	33	MLB	CLE	11	11	63	264	61	30	9	23.0%	11.5%	3.2%	4.68	4.76	+0.2
2034	34	MLB	CLE	60	—	60	251	56	29	8	22.3%	11.7%	3.3%	4.81	4.89	+0.0
2035	35	MLB	CLE	56	—	56	237	51	28	8	21.6%	11.9%	3.4%	4.95	5.05	-0.1
2036	36	MLB	CLE	52	—	52	222	46	27	8	20.8%	12.2%	3.5%	5.11	5.21	-0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			152	112	577	2409	627	279	53	26.0%	11.6%	2.2%	3.27	3.57	+11.3
/ 200 IP	—			53	39	200	835	217	97	18	26.0%	11.6%	2.2%	3.27	3.57	+3.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joey Cantillo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.35	24.4%	10.7%	2.9%	—	4.26	25.8%	14.9%	224	-0.09	—	—	—
James Paxton L 2026 · 4.31 FIP	26	SW	4.31	18.9%	9.4%	2.9%	.288	2.87	27.7%	21.7%	468	-1.44	2.40	924	80
Adam Kolarek L 2026 · 3.81 FIP	26	SW	3.81	17.2%	10.3%	1.6%	.281	2.61	20.9%	12.0%	183	-1.20	2.20	504	79
Brian Flynn L 2026 · 3.82 FIP	26	SW	3.82	21.3%	11.1%	2.0%	.258	4.38	16.6%	8.2%	198	+0.56	3.82	277	78
Aríel Miranda L 2026 · 3.47 FIP	26	SW	3.47	18.3%	10.2%	1.1%	.280	5.07	19.2%	10.2%	364	+1.60	3.47	431	76
Dylan Phillips L 2026 · 4.27 FIP	26	SW	4.27	16.9%	10.3%	2.4%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.64	172	75
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2026 · 5.03 FIP	26	SW	5.03	13.6%	10.5%	3.2%	.257	4.47	14.0%	5.3%	193	-0.56	3.08	264	75
Harrison Musgrave L 2026 · 4.61 FIP	26	SW	4.61	18.1%	10.0%	3.2%	.279	4.84	15.5%	6.7%	24	+0.23	4.05	440	75
Colton Johnson L 2026 · 3.91 FIP	26	SW	3.91	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.62	3.91	106	75
Juan Grullon L 2026 · 4.67 FIP	26	SW	4.67	19.8%	10.9%	3.4%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	134	75
Cam Alldred L 2026 · 3.70 FIP	26	SW	3.70	19.2%	9.2%	1.9%	.318	4.65	19.0%	8.0%	140	+0.95	3.70	332	75
Matt Purke L 2026 · 4.28 FIP	26	SW	4.28	19.1%	13.9%	1.9%	.284	3.54	21.4%	8.8%	112	-0.74	3.00	226	74
Ryan Verdugo L 2028 · 3.61 FIP	28	SW	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	74
Irwin Delgado L 2026 · 4.74 FIP	26	SW	4.74	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.52	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.22	3.50	383	74
Stephen Peterson L 2027 · 4.60 FIP	27	SW	4.60	13.0%	9.5%	2.5%	.284	3.04	17.3%	6.3%	55	-1.56	3.04	120	74
Jack Snodgrass L 2027 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.04	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.37	4.67	118	74
Patrick McCoy L 2026 · 3.80 FIP	26	SW	3.80	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.336	4.31	15.4%	1.6%	44	+0.51	3.80	113	73
Jordan Carr L 2026 · 3.48 FIP	26	SW	3.48	17.2%	8.5%	1.4%	.270	4.47	13.1%	4.3%	91	+0.99	3.48	223	73
Jeremy Horst L 2029 · 4.12 FIP	29	SW	4.12	18.8%	11.2%	2.2%	.291	3.71	15.1%	2.7%	48	-0.41	3.71	108	73
Ben Holmes L 2026 · 4.05 FIP	26	SW	4.05	19.1%	9.3%	2.5%	.264	5.57	19.7%	8.6%	61	+1.52	3.09	451	73
Rob Zastryzny L 2026 · 4.34 FIP	26	SW	4.34	18.4%	11.0%	2.5%	.264	4.84	19.8%	10.8%	142	+0.50	3.30	634	73

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 0.942 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2029	Arb-1	$1M	+0.6	$3M	+$1M
2030	Arb-2	$2M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.4M
2031	Arb-3	$2M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$15M	+$8M