Joey Cantillo — OGILVIE

Joey Cantillo P Cleveland Guardians

Age 26 LHP 6'4" / 225 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.8 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION148 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 92100vR 108

ERA3.78

FIP4.00

K%25.1%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%13.6%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 161 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$7M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL4040

CMD5555

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1892.2

Whiff%

p7729.6%

p6525.0%

xwOBA vs

p480.314

FB+2.5 (33%)

CH+1.1 (24%)

CT (8%)

CU (30%)

SL (4%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 0.942 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.6M	+$0.5M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$3M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2029	Arb-1	$3M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$3M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$3M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$8M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	17	ROK MLE	AZL Padres 2	7	0	8	37	14	6	0	0%	1.1	37.8%	16.2%	21.6%	0.0%	4.50	1.96	—
2017	17	ROK RAW	AZL Padres 2	7	0	8	37	14	6	0	0%	1.1	37.8%	16.2%	21.6%	0.0%	4.50	1.85	—
2018	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	10	49	201	63	15	0	83%	4.1	21.6%	8.2%	13.4%	0.0%	2.76	2.32	—
2018	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	10	49	201	63	15	0	83%	4.1	31.3%	7.5%	23.9%	0.0%	2.76	1.45	—
2019	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	112	432	144	34	5	100%	5.1	24.8%	9.2%	15.5%	1.4%	2.26	2.96	—
2019	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	112	432	144	34	5	100%	5.1	33.3%	7.9%	25.5%	1.2%	2.26	2.02	—
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	2	13	58	19	11	0	29%	1.9	32.8%	19.0%	13.8%	0.0%	2.77	2.74	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	2	13	58	19	11	0	29%	1.9	32.8%	19.0%	13.8%	0.0%	2.77	2.72	—
2022	22	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	14	13	61	245	87	28	2	93%	4.3	28.8%	12.6%	16.2%	1.0%	1.93	2.79	—
2022	22	AA RAW	Akron RubberDucks	14	13	61	245	87	28	2	93%	4.3	35.5%	11.4%	24.1%	0.8%	1.93	2.05	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	24	119	522	146	69	18	92%	4.6	23.1%	12.4%	10.6%	3.8%	4.07	4.79	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	24	119	522	146	69	18	92%	4.6	23.1%	12.4%	10.6%	3.8%	4.07	4.79	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	24	119	522	146	69	18	92%	4.6	28.0%	13.2%	14.8%	3.4%	4.07	4.35	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	18	78	343	97	42	10	90%	3.9	25.8%	11.2%	14.6%	3.0%	4.60	4.01	+0.8
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	18	78	343	97	42	10	90%	3.9	25.8%	11.2%	14.6%	3.0%	4.60	4.01	+0.8
2024	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	18	78	343	97	42	10	90%	3.9	28.3%	12.2%	16.0%	2.9%	4.60	3.89	+0.9
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	19	117	490	135	50	13	48%	2.9	26.6%	10.0%	16.6%	2.7%	3.55	3.59	+1.3
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	19	117	490	135	50	13	48%	2.9	26.6%	10.0%	16.6%	2.7%	3.55	3.59	+1.3
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	19	117	490	135	50	13	48%	2.9	27.6%	10.2%	17.3%	2.7%	3.55	3.52	+1.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			74	51	282	1213	314	135	33	69%	3.8	25.9%	11.1%	14.8%	2.7%	3.80	3.83	+3.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	31	30	148	649	162	78	17	97%	4.8	25.0%	12.0%	12.9%	2.6%	3.89	3.96	+1.7
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	31	30	148	649	162	78	17	97%	4.8	25.0%	12.0%	12.9%	2.6%	3.89	3.96	+1.7
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	MLB RAW	CLE	31	30	148	649	162	78	17	97%	4.8	25.0%	12.0%	12.9%	2.6%	3.89	3.95	+1.7
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	CLE	31	30	148	649	162	78	17	97%	4.8	25.0%	12.0%	12.9%	2.6%	3.89	3.95	+1.7
ROS	26	MLB MLE	CLE	2	2	13	55	14	6	2	100%	6.6	25.1%	11.5%	13.6%	2.9%	3.78	4.00	+0.1
ROS	26	MLB CTX	CLE	2	2	13	55	14	6	2	100%	6.5	25.1%	11.5%	13.6%	2.8%	3.77	3.99	+0.1
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	CLE	—	—	161	704	176	84	19	—	—	25.0%	12.0%	13.0%	2.6%	3.88	3.96	+1.8
FULL	26	MLB A+C	CLE	—	—	161	680	176	84	19	—	—	25.9%	12.4%	13.5%	2.7%	3.88	3.99	+1.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CLE	24	24	147	619	156	71	17	100%	6.1	25.1%	11.5%	13.6%	2.8%	4.26	4.36	+0.9
2028	28	MLB MLE	CLE	24	24	147	619	155	72	18	100%	6.1	25.0%	11.7%	13.3%	2.9%	4.37	4.44	+0.8
2029	29	MLB MLE	CLE	23	23	140	592	144	71	18	100%	6.1	24.4%	11.9%	12.5%	3.0%	4.51	4.60	+0.5
2030	30	MLB MLE	CLE	22	22	132	556	132	68	18	100%	6.0	23.7%	12.2%	11.5%	3.2%	4.69	4.81	+0.1
2031	31	MLB MLE	CLE	20	20	123	518	119	65	18	100%	6.1	22.9%	12.6%	10.4%	3.5%	4.90	5.04	-0.2
2032	32	MLB MLE	CLE	19	19	114	480	106	62	18	100%	6.0	22.1%	13.0%	9.2%	3.7%	5.14	5.30	-0.5
2027	27	MLB CTX	CLE	23	23	139	587	147	68	16	100%	6.0	25.1%	11.5%	13.6%	2.8%	4.26	4.36	+0.9
2028	28	MLB CTX	CLE	23	23	139	587	147	69	17	100%	6.0	25.0%	11.7%	13.3%	2.9%	4.37	4.44	+0.7
2029	29	MLB CTX	CLE	22	22	133	562	137	67	17	100%	6.0	24.4%	11.9%	12.5%	3.0%	4.51	4.60	+0.5
2030	30	MLB CTX	CLE	21	21	125	528	125	64	17	100%	6.0	23.7%	12.2%	11.5%	3.2%	4.69	4.81	+0.1
2031	31	MLB CTX	CLE	20	20	117	494	113	62	17	100%	5.8	22.9%	12.6%	10.4%	3.5%	4.90	5.04	-0.2
2032	32	MLB CTX	CLE	18	18	108	456	101	59	17	100%	6.0	22.1%	13.0%	9.2%	3.7%	5.13	5.29	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		204	181	1057	4484	1099	531	136	89%	5.2	24.5%	11.8%	12.7%	3.0%	4.38	4.20	+8.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	34	200	849	208	101	26	89%	5.2	24.5%	11.8%	12.7%	3.0%	4.38	4.20	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		179	138	705	2977	755	335	69	77%	3.9	25.4%	11.2%	14.1%	2.3%	3.42	3.65	+5.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	39	200	845	214	95	19	77%	3.9	25.4%	11.2%	14.1%	2.3%	3.42	3.65	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joey Cantillo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.25	25.5%	10.4%	2.9%	—	4.46	24.8%	13.1%	434	+0.21	—	—	—
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	74
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	69
Ken Waldichuk L 2023 · 5.01 FIP	25	SP-	5.01	20.7%	11.0%	4.1%	.303	5.84	21.0%	6.1%	51	+0.83	3.51	432	69
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	68
David Peterson L 2022 · 3.23 FIP	26	SP-	3.23	27.2%	10.0%	2.1%	.331	3.63	21.9%	12.3%	438	+0.40	2.81	1,061	68
Cole Ragans L 2023 · 3.14 FIP	25	SP-	3.14	28.1%	10.6%	1.9%	.283	3.24	31.3%	22.0%	283	+0.10	2.48	623	67
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	67
Felix Doubront L 2015 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP	3.92	18.0%	8.4%	2.3%	.304	4.12	23.7%	14.7%	42	+0.20	3.44	291	67
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	67
Avery Weems L 2022 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	21.3%	8.6%	4.5%	.323	5.13	20.5%	12.3%	38	+0.26	2.46	227	66
Caleb Smith L 2017 · 3.43 FIP	26	SP-	3.43	21.5%	8.0%	2.1%	.268	4.70	26.3%	16.5%	245	+1.27	3.31	784	66
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.89	17.8%	10.2%	362	-0.29	3.77	475	66
Tyler Skaggs L 2017 · 4.23 FIP	26	SP	4.23	20.8%	7.7%	3.5%	.310	3.51	23.9%	16.0%	205	-0.72	3.18	372	65
Brant Hurter L 2023 · 3.07 FIP	24	SP	3.07	21.6%	7.3%	1.6%	.311	3.51	20.6%	13.6%	207	+0.44	2.84	432	65
Austin Krob L 2023 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP	3.59	19.9%	10.7%	1.5%	.329	4.00	17.4%	7.1%	171	+0.41	3.59	280	64
Tommy Shirley L 2015 · 3.35 FIP	26	SP-	3.35	19.6%	7.0%	1.9%	.252	4.93	13.0%	4.2%	106	+1.58	3.35	147	64
Taylor Varnell L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	20.1%	10.3%	3.2%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	248	64
Matt Moore L 2015 · 4.17 FIP	26	SP	4.17	21.9%	7.8%	3.5%	.323	4.44	19.7%	11.3%	475	+0.27	2.80	861	64
Colton Gordon L 2023 · 4.36 FIP	24	SP	4.36	22.1%	10.7%	3.2%	.293	4.51	18.6%	13.2%	399	+0.15	2.73	581	64
James Paxton L 2015 · 4.22 FIP	26	SP	4.22	18.9%	9.4%	2.8%	.288	2.95	27.7%	21.7%	468	-1.27	2.46	924	64

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.4	125	24.1%	12.0%	1.22	4.57
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Caleb Smith ('22)	2.1	104	25.1%	11.0%	1.67	4.47
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04