Daniel Lynch IV
P
Kansas City Royals
+0.1
WAR
Age 29
LHP
6'6" / 200 lbs
MLB
peak 0.2 · 2027
ERA4.26
FIP4.68
xFIP3.04
SIERA2.31
K%18.0%
BB%8.1%
K-BB%9.9%
IP58
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2027
STUF5050
CTRL4545
CMD4040
K†4045
FB Velo
p4494.1
Whiff%
p2922.3%
K%
p1015.6%
xwOBA vs
p360.328
CH+2.4 (19%)
SL+1.7 (26%)
SI (30%)
CU (8%)
FB-0.7 (46%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | A | Lexington Legends | 12 | 12 | 51 | 200 | 61 | 8 | 1 | 22.7% | 4.6% | 0.8% | 1.58 | 2.21 | +1.6 |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 18 | 18 | 87 | 360 | 89 | 26 | 4 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 1.8% | 2.89 | 3.56 | +1.6 |
| 2021 | 24 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 27 | 26 | 125 | 568 | 117 | 49 | 19 | 19.3% | 8.8% | 3.5% | 5.76 | 4.52 | +1.1 |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 29 | 29 | 139 | 630 | 130 | 53 | 21 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 3.5% | 5.06 | 4.38 | +1.4 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 15 | 15 | 75 | 317 | 58 | 21 | 13 | 16.3% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 4.34 | 4.74 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 37 | 24 | 163 | 668 | 134 | 46 | 21 | 18.4% | 7.1% | 3.2% | 3.49 | 4.18 | +2.1 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 59 | 2 | 70 | 300 | 49 | 26 | 8 | 15.6% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 3.20 | 4.48 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 7 | 0 | 8 | 30 | 10 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.17 | — | — |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | KC | 46 | — | 46 | 194 | 35 | 16 | 6 | 17.9% | 8.2% | 3.1% | 4.30 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 29 | MLB | KC | — | — | 54 | 224 | 45 | 19 | 6 | 19.9% | 8.4% | 2.7% | 3.85 | 4.05 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | KC | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 40 | 17 | 6 | 19.3% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.56 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | KC | 43 | — | 43 | 183 | 34 | 16 | 6 | 18.8% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 4.54 | 4.66 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | KC | 39 | — | 39 | 163 | 30 | 14 | 5 | 18.1% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 4.68 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | KC | 34 | — | 34 | 145 | 25 | 13 | 5 | 17.5% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 4.82 | 4.91 | +0.0 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | KC | 30 | — | 30 | 128 | 22 | 12 | 4 | 16.8% | 9.1% | 3.3% | 4.96 | 5.05 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | KC | 27 | — | 27 | 112 | 18 | 10 | 4 | 16.0% | 9.3% | 3.4% | 5.10 | 5.20 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 204 | 126 | 718 | 3073 | 580 | 238 | 93 | 18.9% | 7.8% | 3.0% | 4.01 | 4.15 | +9.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 57 | 35 | 200 | 856 | 162 | 66 | 26 | 18.9% | 7.8% | 3.0% | 4.01 | 4.15 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Daniel Lynch IV (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.72 | 17.9% | 8.2% | 3.1% | — | 4.66 | 18.8% | 10.2% | 130 | -0.06 | — | — | — |
| Ross Detwiler L 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.45 | 14.2% | 12.2% | 3.7% | .356 | 4.80 | 14.1% | 5.9% | 242 | -0.65 | 3.45 | 512 | 73 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .291 | 3.71 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.41 | 3.71 | 108 | 73 |
| Jimmy Reyes L 2025 · 4.88 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.88 | 13.8% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 200 | 72 |
| Brian Flynn L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.49 | 17.7% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 277 | 71 |
| Kyle Hunter L 2025 · 4.50 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.50 | 14.0% | 6.1% | 3.3% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 188 | 71 |
| Sam Freeman L 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.22 | 16.3% | 11.8% | 1.8% | .345 | 4.06 | 22.1% | 10.5% | 169 | -0.16 | 3.06 | 299 | 71 |
| Josh Osich L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.73 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.6% | .377 | 5.02 | 22.2% | 15.9% | 115 | +1.29 | 3.41 | 315 | 71 |
| Brandon Mann L 2029 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 3.99 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.74 | 3.59 | 190 | 71 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.68 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 3.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 175 | 71 |
| Marlon Arias L 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .330 | 3.73 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.57 | 3.73 | 154 | 71 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.44 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 126 | 70 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2025 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.61 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.36 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.25 | 3.36 | 153 | 70 |
| John King L 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.58 | 15.3% | 5.2% | 2.0% | .276 | 4.95 | 12.6% | 6.3% | 48 | +1.37 | 2.83 | 390 | 69 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.43 | 18.9% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .300 | 3.46 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 112 | -0.97 | 2.83 | 223 | 69 |
| Kraig Sitton L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.89 | 14.7% | 6.1% | 2.3% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 166 | 69 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.66 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 2.2% | .342 | 2.89 | 20.6% | 17.2% | 29 | -0.77 | 2.89 | 101 | 69 |
| Brian Duensing L 2029 · 4.46 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.46 | 11.5% | 8.1% | 2.4% | .252 | 3.76 | 20.2% | 11.8% | 137 | -0.70 | 2.63 | 198 | 68 |
| Jose Meraz L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.31 | 16.4% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .282 | 3.80 | 10.5% | -2.0% | 30 | -0.51 | 3.70 | 110 | 68 |
| Matt Lujan L 2025 · 4.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.61 | 14.3% | 6.4% | 3.5% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.09 | 227 | 67 |
| Lucas Luetge L 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.66 | 21.0% | 10.8% | 1.8% | .346 | 3.60 | 22.0% | 14.2% | 100 | -0.06 | 2.60 | 430 | 67 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.