Daniel Lynch IV

P Kansas City Royals

Age 30 LHP 6'6" / 200 lbs MLB

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	27	MIX2 levels	37	24	163	3.49	3.98	20.1%	6.9%	2.8	K 18.1% · BB 6.4% · FIP 4.14
2025	28	MIX3 levels	59	2	70	3.20	4.29	16.3%	8.7%	0.2	K 15.6% · BB 8.7% · FIP 4.52
2026	29	MLBKC	56	10	86	4.08	4.37	15.7%	7.3%	0.2
2027PROJ	30	MLBKC	52	0	55	4.48	4.78	16.8%	7.6%	-0.1
2028PROJ	31	MLBKC	30	0	32	4.80	5.01	16.0%	8.0%	-0.2
2029PROJ	32	MLBKC	18	0	19	5.08	5.27	15.2%	8.4%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.1 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo50

xwOBA vs35

K%10

Form6.51 ERA (proj 4.48) · K 10.7% (proj 16.8%) · BB 7.4% (proj 7.6%) ▼ last 60d · 28 IP through Oct 27

CompsDanny Wirchansky (age 27) · John Rheinecker (age 28) · Mike Montgomery (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 105113vR 122

ERA4.48

FIP4.78

K%16.8%

BB%7.6%

K-BB%9.1%

Proj IP55

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5094.5

Whiff%

p2722.1%

p1015.7%

xwOBA vs

p350.329

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	51	200	61	8	1	100%	4.3	22.7%	4.6%	18.1%	0.8%	1.58	2.21	—
2018	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	12	51	200	61	8	1	100%	4.3	30.5%	4.0%	26.5%	0.5%	1.58	1.44	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	18	87	360	89	26	4	100%	4.9	18.1%	8.1%	10.0%	1.7%	2.89	3.54	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	18	87	360	89	26	4	100%	4.9	24.7%	7.2%	17.5%	1.1%	2.89	2.55	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	125	568	117	49	19	96%	4.6	19.3%	8.8%	10.5%	3.6%	5.76	4.56	+1.2
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	26	125	568	117	49	19	96%	4.6	20.6%	8.6%	12.0%	3.3%	5.76	4.38	+1.5
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	139	630	130	53	21	100%	4.8	20.3%	8.3%	12.0%	3.8%	5.06	4.52	+1.4
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	139	630	130	53	21	100%	4.8	20.6%	8.4%	12.2%	3.3%	5.06	4.34	+1.7
2023	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	15	75	317	58	21	13	100%	5.0	16.2%	6.4%	9.8%	4.3%	4.34	4.93	+0.4
2023	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	15	75	317	58	21	13	100%	5.0	18.3%	6.6%	11.7%	4.1%	4.34	4.65	+0.6
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	24	163	668	134	46	21	65%	4.4	18.1%	6.4%	11.7%	3.2%	3.49	4.14	+2.4
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	24	163	668	134	46	21	65%	4.4	18.1%	6.4%	11.7%	3.2%	3.49	4.14	+2.4
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	24	163	668	134	46	21	65%	4.4	20.1%	6.9%	13.2%	3.1%	3.49	3.98	+2.8
2025	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	59	2	70	300	49	26	8	3%	1.2	15.6%	8.7%	6.9%	3.0%	3.20	4.52	+0.0
2025	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	59	2	70	300	49	26	8	3%	1.2	15.6%	8.7%	6.9%	3.0%	3.20	4.52	+0.0
2025	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	59	2	70	300	49	26	8	3%	1.2	16.3%	8.7%	7.7%	2.7%	3.20	4.29	+0.2
2026	29	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	56	10	86	356	56	26	11	18%	1.5	15.7%	7.3%	8.4%	3.3%	4.08	4.53	+0.0
2026	29	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	56	10	86	356	56	26	11	18%	1.5	15.7%	7.3%	8.4%	3.3%	4.08	4.53	+0.0
2026	29	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	56	10	86	356	56	26	11	18%	1.5	15.7%	7.3%	8.4%	3.1%	4.08	4.37	+0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			180	66	449	1953	351	162	64	37%	2.5	18.0%	8.3%	9.7%	3.3%	4.47	4.47	+0.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	KC	52	0	55	232	39	18	7	0%	1.1	16.8%	7.6%	9.1%	3.2%	4.48	4.78	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	KC	30	0	32	133	21	11	5	0%	1.1	16.0%	8.0%	8.0%	3.4%	4.80	5.01	-0.2
2029	32	MLB MLE	KC	18	0	19	79	12	7	3	0%	1.0	15.2%	8.4%	6.8%	3.7%	5.08	5.27	-0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	KC	30	0	32	135	22	11	5	0%	1.1	16.0%	8.0%	8.0%	3.4%	4.80	5.01	-0.2
2029	32	MLB CTX	KC	18	0	19	80	12	7	3	0%	1.1	15.2%	8.4%	6.8%	3.7%	5.08	5.27	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		228	66	499	2165	384	179	71	29%	2.2	17.8%	8.3%	9.5%	3.3%	4.51	4.46	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		91	26	200	867	154	72	28	29%	2.2	17.8%	8.3%	9.5%	3.3%	4.51	4.46	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		253	136	796	3399	623	256	108	54%	3.1	18.3%	7.5%	10.8%	3.2%	4.05	4.25	+5.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	34	200	854	157	64	27	54%	3.1	18.3%	7.5%	10.8%	3.2%	4.05	4.25	+2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 119 IPFIP 3.96 → 4.09 (+0.13)K% 19.2% → 16.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.23%	—	×0.860	16.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.48%	—	×0.900	5.83%
HR / BF /BF	3.04%	÷1.111	×1.100	3.01%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 122).

Result: FIP 3.96 → 4.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 20 IPFIP 3.87 → 4.41 (+0.53)K% 22.0% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.95%	—	×0.860	18.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.88%	—	×0.900	4.39%
HR / BF /BF	3.66%	÷0.942	×1.100	4.27%

Result: FIP 3.87 → 4.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 7 IPFIP 2.11 → 2.45 (+0.33)K% 26.7% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.67%	—	×0.880	23.47%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×1.050	10.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.984	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 97).

Result: FIP 2.11 → 2.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 57 IPFIP 4.09 → 4.53 (+0.44)K% 24.1% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.12%	—	×0.880	21.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.00%	—	×1.050	7.35%
HR / BF /BF	3.89%	÷1.027	×1.100	4.17%

Result: FIP 4.09 → 4.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 78 IPFIP 2.67 → 3.54 (+0.87)K% 23.5% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.55%	—	×0.770	18.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.03%	—	×1.150	8.09%
HR / BF /BF	1.22%	÷0.884	×1.250	1.73%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 77).

Result: FIP 2.67 → 3.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ROKAZL Royals · 9 IPFIP 1.18 → 2.45 (+1.27)K% 36.4% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.36%	—	×0.680	24.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×1.250	11.36%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.18 → 2.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ALexington Legends · 40 IPFIP 1.36 → 2.21 (+0.85)K% 30.7% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.72%	—	×0.740	22.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.92%	—	×1.180	4.63%
HR / BF /BF	0.65%	÷1.051	×1.300	0.81%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 110).

Result: FIP 1.36 → 2.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ROKBurlington Royals · 11 IPFIP 1.12 → 2.06 (+0.94)K% 29.8% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.79%	—	×0.680	20.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.26%	—	×1.250	5.32%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.12 → 2.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Daniel Lynch IV (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.2%	—	5.11	15.7%	7.6%	50	+0.33	—	—	—
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	64
John Rheinecker L 2007 · 5.13 FIP	28	SW	5.13	16.7%	10.9%	3.8%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	121	63
Mike Montgomery L 2019 · 5.35 FIP	30	SW	5.35	17.2%	8.2%	4.8%	.337	4.80	15.6%	4.4%	86	-0.55	3.43	764	63
Kelvin Marte L 2017 · 4.74 FIP	29	SW	4.74	16.1%	11.4%	2.8%	.300	5.25	12.0%	1.2%	71	+0.51	3.44	360	62
Chris Michalak L 2001 · 4.92 FIP	30	SP-	4.92	11.0%	8.2%	3.1%	.291	4.71	7.0%	-4.3%	14	-0.21	4.71	186	61
John Halama L 2002 · 3.69 FIP	30	SW	3.69	16.0%	6.4%	2.1%	.311	4.59	11.3%	5.8%	292	+0.90	3.01	911	60
Enrique Lechuga L 2015 · 4.70 FIP	29	SP-	4.70	10.0%	10.5%	2.0%	.354	3.78	10.5%	4.4%	59	-0.92	3.78	137	60
Kyle Hunter L 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SU	4.50	14.0%	6.1%	3.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	188	59
Luke Westphal L 2021 · 4.70 FIP	32	SP-	4.70	22.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.321	4.58	21.9%	7.6%	95	-0.12	2.97	294	59
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	208	58
Miguel Pena L 2019 · 5.08 FIP	28	SW	5.08	16.0%	7.0%	4.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	2.98	282	57
Andy Otero L 2022 · 4.36 FIP	30	SW	4.36	14.5%	8.9%	2.5%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	2.86	200	56
Tyler Alexander L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	29	SW	5.27	15.7%	10.7%	3.9%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	5.27	128	56
Roy Merritt L 2016 · 3.93 FIP	30	SP-	3.93	13.3%	5.9%	2.2%	.293	3.95	16.2%	10.4%	116	+0.02	3.93	129	56
Tommy Phelps L 2004 · 4.80 FIP	30	SW	4.80	19.4%	8.3%	4.2%	.286	3.98	13.2%	5.7%	23	-0.82	3.39	120	56
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	55
Cesár Ramos L 2014 · 3.93 FIP	30	SU	3.93	18.3%	8.9%	2.3%	.256	4.24	16.7%	9.0%	225	+0.31	2.56	463	55
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	55
Randy Keisler L 2005 · 5.07 FIP	29	SW	5.07	16.4%	9.9%	3.8%	.295	5.51	6.5%	0.0%	17	+0.44	5.07	135	55
Ron Villone L 2000 · 5.44 FIP	30	SP-	5.44	12.0%	11.7%	3.4%	.281	4.35	18.9%	9.6%	314	-1.09	3.26	1,168	55

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	62	17.6%	8.3%	1.27	4.51
Anthony Swarzak ('21)	3.3	73	17.8%	7.3%	1.20	4.42
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Bob Priddy ('62-'71, -1 WAR*)	2.7	77	16.3%*	9.0%*	1.43*	4.80*
Adrian Devine ('73-'80, 2 WAR*)	1.9	65	16.7%*	7.8%*	1.12*	4.45*
Lerrin LaGrow ('70-'80, 2 WAR*)	3.9	87	16.8%*	9.1%*	1.23*	4.50*
Donne Wall ('02)	2.4	59	16.1%	7.7%	1.18	4.20