Daniel Lynch IV — OGILVIE

Daniel Lynch IV P Kansas City Royals

Age 29 LHP 6'6" / 200 lbs MLB

2026 ROS PROJECTION72 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 96104vR 112

ERA4.02

FIP4.31

K%16.8%

BB%7.6%

K-BB%9.2%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 76 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5194.6

Whiff%

p3523.2%

p1216.6%

xwOBA vs

p480.314

CH+2.4 (24%)

SL+1.7 (20%)

SI (32%)

CU (9%)

FB-0.7 (47%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	51	200	61	8	1	100%	4.3	22.7%	4.6%	18.1%	0.8%	1.58	2.21	—
2018	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	12	51	200	61	8	1	100%	4.3	30.5%	4.0%	26.5%	0.5%	1.58	1.44	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	18	87	360	89	26	4	100%	4.9	18.1%	8.1%	10.0%	1.7%	2.89	3.54	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	18	87	360	89	26	4	100%	4.9	24.7%	7.2%	17.5%	1.1%	2.89	2.55	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	125	568	117	49	19	96%	4.6	19.3%	8.8%	10.5%	3.6%	5.76	4.56	+0.5
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	26	125	568	117	49	19	96%	4.6	20.6%	8.6%	12.0%	3.3%	5.76	4.38	+0.8
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	139	630	130	53	21	100%	4.8	20.3%	8.3%	12.0%	3.8%	5.06	4.52	+0.6
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	139	630	130	53	21	100%	4.8	20.6%	8.4%	12.2%	3.3%	5.06	4.34	+0.9
2023	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	15	75	317	58	21	13	100%	5.0	16.0%	6.4%	9.6%	4.3%	4.34	4.94	-0.0
2023	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	15	75	317	58	21	13	100%	5.0	16.0%	6.4%	9.6%	4.3%	4.34	4.94	-0.0
2023	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	15	75	317	58	21	13	100%	5.0	18.3%	6.6%	11.7%	4.1%	4.34	4.65	+0.2
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	24	163	668	134	46	21	65%	4.4	17.6%	6.4%	11.2%	3.2%	3.49	4.17	+1.4
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	24	163	668	134	46	21	65%	4.4	17.6%	6.4%	11.2%	3.2%	3.49	4.17	+1.4
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	24	163	668	134	46	21	65%	4.4	20.1%	6.9%	13.2%	3.1%	3.49	3.98	+1.8
2025	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	59	2	70	300	49	26	8	3%	1.2	15.6%	8.7%	6.9%	3.0%	3.20	4.52	+0.0
2025	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	59	2	70	300	49	26	8	3%	1.2	15.6%	8.7%	6.9%	3.0%	3.20	4.52	+0.0
2025	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	59	2	70	300	49	26	8	3%	1.2	16.3%	8.7%	7.7%	2.7%	3.20	4.29	+0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			177	63	435	1892	344	158	59	36%	2.5	18.2%	8.4%	9.8%	3.1%	4.39	4.37	+0.9
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	53	7	72	295	49	22	6	13%	1.4	16.6%	7.5%	9.2%	2.2%	3.52	3.85	+0.6
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	53	7	72	295	49	22	6	13%	1.4	16.6%	7.5%	9.2%	2.2%	3.52	3.85	+0.6
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	MLB RAW	KC	53	7	72	295	49	22	6	13%	1.4	16.6%	7.5%	9.2%	2.0%	3.52	3.76	+0.7
SO FAR	29	MLB RAW	KC	53	7	72	295	49	22	6	13%	1.4	16.6%	7.5%	9.2%	2.0%	3.52	3.76	+0.7
ROS	29	MLB MLE	KC	4	0	5	19	3	1	1	0%	1.1	16.8%	7.6%	9.2%	3.0%	4.02	4.31	+0.0
ROS	29	MLB CTX	KC	5	0	5	21	4	2	1	0%	1.0	16.8%	7.6%	9.2%	3.0%	4.02	4.31	+0.0
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	KC	—	—	76	314	52	23	7	—	—	16.6%	7.5%	9.2%	2.1%	3.55	3.88	+0.7
FULL	29	MLB A+C	KC	—	—	76	322	52	23	7	—	—	16.2%	7.3%	8.9%	2.0%	3.55	3.78	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	KC	48	0	51	214	35	17	6	0%	1.1	16.2%	7.9%	8.3%	2.9%	4.53	4.73	-0.1
2028	31	MLB MLE	KC	45	0	47	200	31	16	6	0%	1.1	15.4%	8.2%	7.2%	3.2%	4.79	4.96	-0.2
2029	32	MLB MLE	KC	42	0	44	185	27	16	6	0%	1.0	14.6%	8.6%	6.0%	3.4%	5.05	5.22	-0.3
2027	30	MLB CTX	KC	49	0	51	215	35	17	6	0%	1.0	16.2%	7.9%	8.3%	2.9%	4.53	4.73	-0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	KC	45	0	47	198	31	16	6	0%	1.0	15.4%	8.2%	7.2%	3.2%	4.79	4.96	-0.2
2029	32	MLB CTX	KC	42	0	44	186	27	16	6	0%	1.0	14.6%	8.6%	6.0%	3.4%	5.05	5.22	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		316	63	581	2510	440	209	79	20%	1.8	17.5%	8.3%	9.2%	3.1%	4.48	4.39	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		109	22	200	864	151	72	27	20%	1.8	17.5%	8.3%	9.2%	3.1%	4.48	4.39	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		250	133	782	3338	613	252	103	53%	3.1	18.4%	7.5%	10.8%	3.1%	4.00	4.19	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	34	200	854	157	64	26	53%	3.1	18.4%	7.5%	10.8%	3.1%	4.00	4.19	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Daniel Lynch IV (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.75	17.1%	7.7%	3.2%	—	4.96	15.4%	7.2%	142	+0.21	—	—	—
Brian Flynn L 2019 · 4.49 FIP	29	SW	4.49	17.7%	10.1%	2.9%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	277	71
Kelvin Marte L 2017 · 4.74 FIP	29	SW	4.74	16.1%	11.4%	2.8%	.300	5.25	12.0%	1.2%	71	+0.51	3.44	360	67
Kyle Hunter L 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SU	4.50	14.0%	6.1%	3.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	188	67
Aaron Laffey L 2015 · 4.12 FIP	30	SW	4.12	13.5%	9.7%	1.7%	.318	4.39	12.5%	5.2%	192	+0.27	3.51	282	67
Mike Montgomery L 2018 · 3.64 FIP	29	SP-	3.64	16.1%	6.6%	1.9%	.300	5.22	17.4%	8.6%	108	+1.58	3.43	764	66
Matt Whitehouse L 2019 · 4.07 FIP	28	SW	4.07	20.1%	10.9%	2.3%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	353	66
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	65
Travis Blackley L 2015 · 4.91 FIP	32	SP-	4.91	15.4%	6.4%	4.2%	.324	4.45	10.5%	0.0%	137	-0.46	3.85	225	65
Sam Freeman L 2016 · 4.22 FIP	29	SU	4.22	16.3%	11.8%	1.8%	.345	4.02	22.1%	10.5%	169	-0.20	3.03	299	65
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	64
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.43	16.3%	8.9%	346	-0.44	3.70	569	64
Edgar Olmos L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	27	SW	3.64	18.9%	9.7%	1.7%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	203	63
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	63
Ross Detwiler L 2015 · 5.50 FIP	29	SW	5.50	14.2%	12.2%	3.8%	.356	4.80	14.1%	5.9%	242	-0.70	3.49	512	62
Kyle Hart L 2022 · 5.24 FIP	29	SW	5.24	17.4%	9.9%	4.3%	.286	4.33	17.9%	9.0%	196	-0.91	3.60	884	62
Clayton Richard L 2015 · 3.56 FIP	31	SW	3.56	10.8%	4.2%	1.5%	.264	4.05	16.3%	8.6%	424	+0.49	3.56	574	61
Josh Osich L 2018 · 3.73 FIP	29	SU	3.73	17.3%	9.5%	1.6%	.377	5.05	22.2%	15.9%	115	+1.32	3.41	315	61
Tyler Alexander L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	29	SW	5.27	15.7%	10.7%	3.9%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	5.27	128	60
Chad Bell L 2018 · 4.38 FIP	29	SU	4.38	18.8%	7.4%	3.5%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	393	60
Miguel Pena L 2019 · 5.08 FIP	28	SW	5.08	16.0%	7.0%	4.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	2.98	282	60

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	49	15.9%	8.1%	1.23	4.69
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45