Daniel Lynch IV
P
Kansas City Royals
Age 29
LHP
6'6" / 200 lbs
MLB
2026 ROS PROJECTION38 act + 16 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8392vR 101
ERA3.67
FIP3.95
K%19.2%
BB%7.9%
K-BB%11.3%
ROS IP16
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5594.9
Whiff%
p7929.9%
K%
p4521.4%
xwOBA vs
p780.285
CH+2.4 (24%)
SL+1.7 (24%)
SI (29%)
CU (7%)
FB-0.7 (46%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 12 | 51 | 200 | 61 | 8 | 1 | 100% | 4.3 | 22.7% | 4.6% | 18.1% | 0.8% | 1.58 | 2.19 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 12 | 51 | 200 | 61 | 8 | 1 | 100% | 4.3 | 30.5% | 4.0% | 26.5% | 0.5% | 1.58 | 1.44 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 18 | 87 | 360 | 89 | 26 | 4 | 100% | 4.9 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 2.0% | 2.89 | 3.69 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 18 | 87 | 360 | 89 | 26 | 4 | 100% | 4.9 | 24.7% | 7.2% | 17.5% | 1.1% | 2.89 | 2.55 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 26 | 125 | 568 | 117 | 49 | 19 | 96% | 4.6 | 19.3% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 3.5% | 5.76 | 4.52 | +1.3 |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 26 | 125 | 568 | 117 | 49 | 19 | 96% | 4.6 | 20.6% | 8.6% | 12.0% | 3.3% | 5.76 | 4.38 | +1.5 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 29 | 139 | 630 | 130 | 53 | 21 | 100% | 4.8 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 12.0% | 3.7% | 5.06 | 4.49 | +1.5 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 29 | 139 | 630 | 130 | 53 | 21 | 100% | 4.8 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 12.2% | 3.3% | 5.06 | 4.34 | +1.7 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 15 | 15 | 75 | 317 | 58 | 21 | 13 | 100% | 5.0 | 16.3% | 6.6% | 9.7% | 4.4% | 4.34 | 4.96 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 15 | 15 | 75 | 317 | 58 | 21 | 13 | 100% | 5.0 | 18.3% | 6.6% | 11.7% | 4.1% | 4.34 | 4.65 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 24 | 163 | 668 | 134 | 46 | 21 | 65% | 4.4 | 18.4% | 7.1% | 11.2% | 3.0% | 3.49 | 4.09 | +2.5 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 24 | 163 | 668 | 134 | 46 | 21 | 65% | 4.4 | 20.1% | 6.9% | 13.2% | 3.1% | 3.49 | 3.98 | +2.7 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 59 | 2 | 70 | 300 | 49 | 26 | 8 | 3% | 1.2 | 15.6% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 3.0% | 3.20 | 4.51 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 59 | 2 | 70 | 300 | 49 | 26 | 8 | 3% | 1.2 | 16.3% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 2.7% | 3.20 | 4.29 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 39 | 0 | 38 | 154 | 33 | 12 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 7.8% | 13.6% | 1.3% | 2.35 | 2.99 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | KC | 15 | 0 | 16 | 66 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.2% | 7.9% | 11.3% | 2.7% | 3.67 | 3.95 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | KC | 15 | 0 | 16 | 68 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.2% | 7.9% | 11.3% | 2.7% | 3.67 | 3.95 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | KC | — | — | 54 | 220 | 46 | 17 | 4 | — | — | 20.8% | 7.8% | 12.9% | 1.7% | 2.73 | 3.27 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | KC | — | — | 54 | 228 | 46 | 17 | 4 | — | — | 20.0% | 7.6% | 12.5% | 1.6% | 2.73 | 3.27 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | KC | 48 | 0 | 51 | 214 | 39 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.1% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | KC | 45 | 0 | 47 | 200 | 35 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.3% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 4.64 | 4.81 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | KC | 42 | 0 | 44 | 185 | 31 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.5% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 3.4% | 4.90 | 5.07 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | KC | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 39 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.1% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | KC | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 34 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.3% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 4.64 | 4.81 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | KC | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 31 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.5% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 3.4% | 4.90 | 5.07 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 313 | 56 | 559 | 2415 | 444 | 205 | 75 | 18% | 1.8 | 18.4% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.33 | +7.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 112 | 20 | 200 | 865 | 159 | 73 | 27 | 18% | 1.8 | 18.4% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.33 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 236 | 126 | 748 | 3197 | 603 | 247 | 97 | 53% | 3.2 | 18.8% | 7.7% | 11.1% | 3.0% | 3.96 | 4.15 | +10.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 63 | 34 | 200 | 854 | 161 | 66 | 26 | 53% | 3.2 | 18.8% | 7.7% | 11.1% | 3.0% | 3.96 | 4.15 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Daniel Lynch IV (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.73 | 17.4% | 8.0% | 3.1% | — | 4.81 | 17.3% | 8.8% | 142 | +0.08 | — | — | — |
| Matt Whitehouse L 2025 · 4.02 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.02 | 20.1% | 10.9% | 2.2% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 353 | 67 |
| Brian Flynn L 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.46 | 17.7% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.78 | 277 | 66 |
| Kelvin Marte L 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.87 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 3.1% | .300 | 5.18 | 12.0% | 1.2% | 71 | +0.31 | 3.50 | 360 | 66 |
| Hector Hernandez L 2025 · 3.57 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.57 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 1.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 121 | 65 |
| Kyle Hunter L 2025 · 4.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.47 | 14.0% | 6.1% | 3.2% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.44 | 188 | 65 |
| Matt Moore L 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.79 | 18.3% | 8.5% | 3.9% | .334 | 5.49 | 19.6% | 8.8% | 92 | +0.70 | 2.82 | 845 | 65 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.83 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 175 | 65 |
| Mike Montgomery L 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.57 | 16.1% | 6.6% | 1.8% | .300 | 5.17 | 17.4% | 8.6% | 108 | +1.60 | 3.36 | 764 | 65 |
| David Huff L 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.63 | 17.1% | 3.8% | 2.7% | .271 | 4.00 | 19.5% | 14.6% | 52 | +0.37 | 3.63 | 158 | 65 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2025 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.41 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.21 | 3.41 | 153 | 64 |
| Aaron Laffey L 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.04 | 13.5% | 9.7% | 1.6% | .318 | 4.37 | 12.5% | 5.2% | 192 | +0.33 | 3.53 | 282 | 64 |
| Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.44 | 17.9% | 8.2% | 3.3% | .336 | 4.86 | 17.6% | 10.1% | 69 | +0.42 | 3.88 | 523 | 64 |
| Edgar Olmos L 2024 · 3.56 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.56 | 18.9% | 9.7% | 1.5% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 203 | 63 |
| Travis Blackley L 2029 · 4.97 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.97 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.3% | .324 | 4.50 | 10.5% | 0.0% | 137 | -0.47 | 3.84 | 225 | 63 |
| Jimmy Reyes L 2025 · 4.73 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.73 | 13.8% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | 200 | 63 |
| Sam Freeman L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.25 | 16.3% | 11.8% | 1.9% | .345 | 4.05 | 22.1% | 10.5% | 169 | -0.20 | 3.03 | 299 | 62 |
| Ross Detwiler L 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.34 | 14.2% | 12.2% | 3.5% | .356 | 5.01 | 14.1% | 5.9% | 242 | -0.33 | 3.47 | 512 | 60 |
| Justin Marks L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.84 | 18.7% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 324 | 60 |
| Kyle Hart L 2026 · 5.32 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.32 | 17.4% | 9.9% | 4.4% | .286 | 4.42 | 18.7% | 8.6% | 196 | -0.90 | 3.64 | 856 | 60 |
| Chad Bell L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.44 | 18.8% | 7.4% | 3.6% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 393 | 58 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 49 | 17.3% | 8.4% | 1.20 | 4.58 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |