Alexander Almonte
P
FCL Yankees
Age 19
RHP
6'4" / 205 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.8 · 2032
2026 ROS PROJECTION21 act + 73 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133123vR 114
ERA5.04
FIP5.04
K%18.3%
BB%11.8%
K-BB%6.5%
ROS IP73
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 95 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL NYY Yankees | 9 | 9 | 26 | 109 | 26 | 12 | 3 | 100% | 2.9 | 16.2% | 13.8% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 3.51 | 5.81 | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL NYY Yankees | 9 | 9 | 26 | 109 | 26 | 12 | 3 | 100% | 2.9 | 23.9% | 11.0% | 12.8% | 2.8% | 3.51 | 4.00 | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | DSL NYY Bombers | 11 | 10 | 52 | 229 | 48 | 21 | 3 | 91% | 4.7 | 14.3% | 11.5% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 3.29 | 4.20 | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | DSL NYY Bombers | 11 | 10 | 52 | 229 | 48 | 21 | 3 | 91% | 4.7 | 21.0% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 1.3% | 3.29 | 3.22 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 19 | ROK | FCL Yankees | 11 | 1 | 21 | 108 | 14 | 18 | 1 | 9% | 1.9 | 8.8% | 20.8% | -12.0% | 1.3% | 6.33 | 5.71 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 19 | MLB | NYY | 70 | 0 | 73 | 309 | 56 | 36 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.3% | 11.8% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 5.04 | 5.04 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 19 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 18.3% | 11.8% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 5.10 | 5.10 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 19 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 95 | 417 | 70 | 54 | 10 | — | — | 16.9% | 13.0% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 5.33 | 5.19 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | NYY | 18 | 18 | 107 | 451 | 84 | 52 | 13 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.6% | 11.6% | 6.9% | 2.9% | 4.96 | 4.96 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 21 | MLB | NYY | 25 | 25 | 146 | 617 | 124 | 67 | 17 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.1% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 4.79 | 4.71 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB | NYY | 30 | 30 | 175 | 739 | 161 | 75 | 21 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.7% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 2.8% | 4.58 | 4.46 | +1.9 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB | NYY | 31 | 31 | 180 | 760 | 173 | 74 | 21 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.8% | 9.8% | 13.0% | 2.7% | 4.41 | 4.30 | +2.3 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB | NYY | 31 | 31 | 180 | 760 | 178 | 73 | 21 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.4% | 9.6% | 13.9% | 2.7% | 4.28 | 4.20 | +2.5 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB | NYY | 31 | 31 | 180 | 760 | 181 | 72 | 20 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 14.4% | 2.7% | 4.20 | 4.14 | +2.7 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 30 | 30 | 180 | 760 | 183 | 72 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.0% | 9.4% | 14.6% | 2.7% | 4.15 | 4.12 | +2.7 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 30 | 30 | 177 | 749 | 180 | 71 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.0% | 9.5% | 14.5% | 2.7% | 4.16 | 4.16 | +2.6 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 29 | 29 | 172 | 726 | 173 | 70 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.9% | 9.6% | 14.3% | 2.8% | 4.21 | 4.24 | +2.3 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 27 | 27 | 164 | 694 | 164 | 68 | 21 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.6% | 9.9% | 13.8% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 4.37 | +2.0 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 26 | 26 | 154 | 652 | 152 | 66 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.3% | 10.2% | 13.1% | 3.2% | 4.46 | 4.55 | +1.5 |
| 2038 | 31 | MLB | NYY | 24 | 24 | 144 | 608 | 139 | 64 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.9% | 10.5% | 12.4% | 3.4% | 4.64 | 4.75 | +1.1 |
| 2039 | 32 | MLB | NYY | 22 | 22 | 133 | 562 | 126 | 61 | 21 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 11.5% | 3.7% | 4.84 | 4.98 | +0.7 |
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | NYY | 9 | 9 | 53 | 224 | 42 | 26 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.6% | 11.6% | 6.9% | 3.0% | 5.02 | 5.02 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 21 | MLB | NYY | 18 | 18 | 107 | 452 | 91 | 49 | 13 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.1% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.85 | 4.77 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB | NYY | 25 | 25 | 148 | 625 | 136 | 64 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.7% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 2.9% | 4.64 | 4.52 | +1.5 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB | NYY | 28 | 28 | 162 | 684 | 156 | 67 | 19 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.8% | 9.8% | 13.0% | 2.8% | 4.47 | 4.36 | +2.0 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB | NYY | 28 | 28 | 166 | 701 | 164 | 67 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.4% | 9.6% | 13.9% | 2.8% | 4.34 | 4.26 | +2.2 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB | NYY | 29 | 29 | 168 | 709 | 169 | 67 | 20 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 14.4% | 2.8% | 4.26 | 4.20 | +2.4 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 28 | 28 | 171 | 722 | 173 | 68 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.0% | 9.4% | 14.6% | 2.8% | 4.21 | 4.18 | +2.4 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 28 | 28 | 168 | 709 | 170 | 67 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.0% | 9.5% | 14.5% | 2.8% | 4.22 | 4.22 | +2.3 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 27 | 27 | 163 | 688 | 164 | 66 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.9% | 9.6% | 14.3% | 2.9% | 4.27 | 4.30 | +2.1 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 26 | 26 | 156 | 659 | 156 | 65 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.6% | 9.9% | 13.8% | 3.1% | 4.37 | 4.43 | +1.8 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 24 | 24 | 147 | 621 | 145 | 63 | 21 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.3% | 10.2% | 13.1% | 3.3% | 4.53 | 4.62 | +1.3 |
| 2038 | 31 | MLB | NYY | 23 | 23 | 137 | 578 | 132 | 61 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.9% | 10.5% | 12.4% | 3.5% | 4.71 | 4.82 | +0.9 |
| 2039 | 32 | MLB | NYY | 21 | 21 | 127 | 536 | 120 | 59 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 11.5% | 3.8% | 4.92 | 5.06 | +0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 315 | 315 | 1871 | 7902 | 1817 | 789 | 239 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.0% | 10.0% | 13.0% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.08 | +28.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 194 | 84 | 26 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.0% | 10.0% | 13.0% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.08 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 31 | 20 | 99 | 446 | 60 | 64 | 10 | 65% | 3.2 | 13.4% | 14.3% | -0.9% | 2.2% | 4.00 | 4.96 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 63 | 40 | 200 | 901 | 121 | 129 | 19 | 65% | 3.2 | 13.4% | 14.3% | -0.9% | 2.2% | 4.00 | 4.96 | +1.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alexander Almonte (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.04 | 18.3% | 11.8% | 2.9% | — | 4.67 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 428 | -0.37 | — | — | — |
| Edward Escoboza R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.73 | 15.3% | 11.7% | 2.6% | .345 | 4.05 | 17.4% | 9.9% | 157 | -0.68 | 3.44 | 213 | 87 |
| Ruben Galindo R 2027 · 5.13 FIP | 20 | SW | 5.13 | 15.9% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .345 | 3.57 | 19.0% | 7.7% | 149 | -1.56 | 2.91 | 239 | 86 |
| Luis Garcia R 2028 · 4.33 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.33 | 17.9% | 13.4% | 1.9% | .295 | 3.59 | 27.4% | 17.5% | 264 | -0.74 | 3.28 | 535 | 85 |
| Luis Victorino R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.27 | 18.9% | 12.8% | 2.1% | .301 | 4.95 | 15.9% | -5.0% | 84 | +0.68 | 4.27 | 148 | 85 |
| Shane Davis R 2028 · 5.14 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.14 | 17.3% | 9.8% | 4.1% | .313 | 4.08 | 20.9% | 6.7% | 55 | -1.06 | 4.08 | 129 | 83 |
| Ryan Long R 2029 · 4.20 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.20 | 17.1% | 11.6% | 2.0% | .263 | 4.46 | 16.6% | 7.3% | 292 | +0.26 | 4.13 | 405 | 83 |
| Reibyn Corona R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.94 | 17.0% | 13.1% | 2.9% | .290 | 5.61 | 14.5% | 1.7% | 63 | +0.67 | 4.38 | 190 | 83 |
| Jose Morban R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.42 | 18.7% | 11.2% | 2.7% | .333 | 3.98 | 16.9% | 5.8% | 61 | -0.44 | 3.98 | 178 | 83 |
| Eccel Correa R 2027 · 4.35 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.35 | 19.4% | 11.9% | 2.5% | .316 | 4.40 | 14.2% | 2.3% | 151 | +0.05 | 3.96 | 186 | 82 |
| JeanPierre Ortiz R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.26 | 16.1% | 10.2% | 2.2% | .270 | 4.93 | 15.9% | 4.4% | 37 | +0.67 | 4.26 | 129 | 82 |
| Nick Garcia R 2029 · 4.31 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.31 | 18.3% | 12.3% | 2.2% | .274 | 4.88 | 17.3% | 5.9% | 265 | +0.57 | 4.27 | 384 | 82 |
| Joel Díaz R 2025 · 5.57 FIP | 18 | SP- | 5.57 | 15.3% | 11.9% | 4.1% | .335 | 5.17 | 16.2% | 8.2% | 174 | -0.40 | 1.98 | 308 | 82 |
| Julio Goff R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 19 | SW | 4.80 | 16.1% | 11.9% | 2.8% | .364 | 4.84 | 16.4% | 5.9% | 207 | +0.04 | 4.43 | 251 | 82 |
| Kolton Curtis R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.2% | 14.4% | 2.6% | .236 | 4.29 | 19.9% | 2.5% | 66 | -0.61 | 4.29 | 148 | 82 |
| Tanner Hall R 2029 · 4.56 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.56 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 3.0% | .295 | 5.39 | 10.1% | -4.6% | 72 | +0.83 | 4.56 | 137 | 82 |
| Devereaux Harrison R 2029 · 4.70 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.70 | 17.6% | 11.3% | 3.0% | .252 | 4.78 | 16.9% | 4.2% | 272 | +0.08 | 4.52 | 366 | 81 |
| Luis Aguilar R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 19 | SW | 4.54 | 17.6% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .356 | 4.26 | 16.7% | 6.7% | 111 | -0.28 | 3.52 | 146 | 81 |
| Mike Garcia R 2024 · 4.11 FIP | 17 | SP- | 4.11 | 17.7% | 10.6% | 2.1% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 125 | 81 |
| Reese Olson R 2027 · 4.80 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.80 | 14.6% | 13.0% | 2.3% | .336 | 4.25 | 23.7% | 13.2% | 224 | -0.55 | 3.07 | 640 | 81 |
| Adolfo Oviedo R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 19 | SP- | 3.98 | 17.2% | 8.1% | 2.4% | .272 | 4.74 | 13.4% | 8.0% | 90 | +0.76 | 3.79 | 201 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 14 | 155 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 1.13 | 4.45 |
| Kyle Gibson ('24) | 10 | 164 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.14 | 4.46 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |
| Lance Lynn ('24) | 9 | 154 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 3.86 |
| Zach Davies ('23) | 9 | 116 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 1.16 | 4.36 |
| Chase Anderson ('24) | 10 | 99 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 1.50 | 4.45 |
| Wade Miley ('23) | 8 | 136 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 1.07 | 4.20 |