Alexander Almonte

P FCL Yankees

Age 20 RHP 6'4" / 205 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.5 · 2032

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#795ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	18	ROKDSL NYY Bombe…	11	10	52	3.29	3.22	21.0%	9.2%	—	K 14.3% · BB 11.5% · FIP 4.27
2026	19	ROKNYY	12	1	23	7.15	5.39	12.6%	19.3%	—	K 8.6% · BB 24.2% · FIP 6.08
2027PROJ	20	MLBNYY	—	—	0	5.88	5.88	16.5%	17.4%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBNYY	7	7	37	5.75	5.70	17.3%	15.8%	-0.1
2029PROJ73% MLB	22	MLBNYY	12	12	69	5.38	5.22	19.6%	13.8%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$2M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsHunter Parks (age 21) · Reynardo Cruz (age 20) · Kyle Larsen (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145137vR 129

ERA5.88

FIP5.88

K%16.5%

BB%17.4%

K-BB%-0.9%

Proj IP68

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$35M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+1.1	$5M	+$4M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$19M	+$17M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	9	9	26	109	26	12	3	100%	2.9	16.2%	13.8%	2.5%	4.0%	3.51	5.69	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	9	9	26	109	26	12	3	100%	2.9	16.2%	13.8%	2.5%	4.0%	3.51	5.69	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Yankees	9	9	26	109	26	12	3	100%	2.9	23.9%	11.0%	12.8%	2.8%	3.51	4.00	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	11	10	52	229	48	21	3	91%	4.7	14.3%	11.5%	2.8%	1.7%	3.29	4.27	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	11	10	52	229	48	21	3	91%	4.7	14.3%	11.5%	2.8%	1.7%	3.29	4.27	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Bombers	11	10	52	229	48	21	3	91%	4.7	21.0%	9.2%	11.8%	1.3%	3.29	3.22	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	12	1	23	119	15	23	1	8%	1.9	8.6%	24.2%	-15.6%	1.2%	7.15	6.08	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	12	1	23	119	15	23	1	8%	1.9	8.6%	24.2%	-15.6%	1.2%	7.15	6.08	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	FCL Yankees	12	1	23	119	15	23	1	8%	1.9	12.6%	19.3%	-6.7%	0.8%	7.15	5.39	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	NYY	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.5%	17.4%	-0.9%	2.9%	5.88	5.88	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	NYY	13	13	76	320	55	50	9	100%	5.8	17.3%	15.8%	1.5%	2.9%	5.64	5.59	-0.2
2029	22	MLB MLE	NYY	17	17	94	399	78	55	11	100%	5.6	19.6%	13.8%	5.8%	2.8%	5.28	5.12	+0.3
2030	23	MLB MLE	NYY	20	20	110	466	99	59	13	100%	5.5	21.2%	12.6%	8.6%	2.8%	4.98	4.81	+0.7
2031	24	MLB MLE	NYY	20	20	112	475	105	56	13	100%	5.6	22.2%	11.8%	10.4%	2.7%	4.75	4.61	+1.0
2032	25	MLB MLE	NYY	19	19	112	472	107	54	13	100%	5.9	22.8%	11.3%	11.4%	2.7%	4.60	4.50	+1.2
2033	26	MLB MLE	NYY	19	19	112	473	109	53	13	100%	5.9	23.1%	11.3%	11.7%	2.7%	4.52	4.47	+1.2
2034	27	MLB MLE	NYY	18	18	110	462	107	53	13	100%	6.1	23.0%	11.4%	11.6%	2.8%	4.51	4.50	+1.1
2035	28	MLB MLE	NYY	17	17	105	442	101	51	13	100%	6.2	22.9%	11.5%	11.4%	2.9%	4.56	4.59	+1.0
2036	29	MLB MLE	NYY	16	16	98	413	94	49	13	100%	6.1	22.7%	11.8%	10.9%	3.0%	4.66	4.72	+0.8
2037	30	MLB MLE	NYY	15	15	89	377	84	46	12	100%	6.0	22.3%	12.1%	10.2%	3.2%	4.80	4.90	+0.5
2038	31	MLB MLE	NYY	14	14	81	342	75	42	12	100%	5.8	21.9%	12.4%	9.5%	3.5%	4.98	5.10	+0.3
2028	21	MLB CTX	NYY	7	7	37	156	27	25	5	100%	5.3	17.3%	15.8%	1.5%	3.0%	5.75	5.70	-0.1
2029	22	MLB CTX	NYY	12	12	69	291	57	40	9	100%	5.8	19.6%	13.8%	5.8%	3.0%	5.38	5.22	+0.2
2030	23	MLB CTX	NYY	16	16	93	393	83	49	12	100%	5.8	21.2%	12.6%	8.6%	3.0%	5.08	4.91	+0.6
2031	24	MLB CTX	NYY	18	18	100	422	94	50	12	100%	5.6	22.2%	11.8%	10.4%	2.9%	4.85	4.71	+0.9
2032	25	MLB CTX	NYY	18	18	103	435	99	49	13	100%	5.7	22.8%	11.3%	11.4%	2.9%	4.70	4.60	+1.1
2033	26	MLB CTX	NYY	17	17	104	439	101	50	13	100%	6.1	23.1%	11.3%	11.7%	2.9%	4.62	4.57	+1.1
2034	27	MLB CTX	NYY	17	17	104	439	101	50	13	100%	6.1	23.0%	11.4%	11.6%	3.0%	4.61	4.60	+1.1
2035	28	MLB CTX	NYY	16	16	99	418	96	48	13	100%	6.2	22.9%	11.5%	11.4%	3.1%	4.67	4.70	+0.9
2036	29	MLB CTX	NYY	16	16	93	393	89	46	13	100%	5.8	22.7%	11.8%	10.9%	3.2%	4.77	4.83	+0.7
2037	30	MLB CTX	NYY	14	14	85	359	80	43	12	100%	6.1	22.3%	12.1%	10.2%	3.5%	4.92	5.02	+0.5
2038	31	MLB CTX	NYY	13	13	77	325	71	40	12	100%	5.9	21.9%	12.4%	9.5%	3.7%	5.11	5.23	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		164	164	964	4072	899	492	126	100%	5.9	22.1%	12.1%	10.0%	3.1%	4.88	4.46	+10.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	186	102	26	100%	5.9	22.1%	12.1%	10.0%	3.1%	4.88	4.46	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		32	20	100	457	61	70	10	62%	3.1	13.2%	15.3%	-2.1%	2.1%	4.22	5.08	+8.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	40	200	911	121	140	19	62%	3.1	13.2%	15.3%	-2.1%	2.1%	4.22	5.08	+1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKFCL Yankees · 23 IPFIP 4.95 → 6.08 (+1.14)K% 12.6% → 8.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.61%	—	×0.680	8.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.33%	—	×1.250	24.16%
HR / BF /BF	0.84%	÷1.000	×1.400	1.18%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.95 → 6.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKDSL NYY Bombers · 52 IPFIP 3.21 → 4.27 (+1.06)K% 21.0% → 14.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.96%	—	×0.680	14.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.17%	—	×1.250	11.46%
HR / BF /BF	1.31%	÷1.090	×1.400	1.68%

Result: FIP 3.21 → 4.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKDSL NYY Yankees · 26 IPFIP 3.99 → 5.69 (+1.70)K% 23.9% → 16.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.85%	—	×0.680	16.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.01%	—	×1.250	13.76%
HR / BF /BF	2.75%	÷0.952	×1.400	4.05%

Result: FIP 3.99 → 5.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alexander Almonte (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	5.13	19.6%	5.7%	281	-0.75	—	—	—
Hunter Parks R 2022 · 5.17 FIP	21	SP-	5.17	18.7%	16.8%	2.8%	.312	5.23	17.7%	-0.3%	163	+0.06	4.42	301	88
Reynardo Cruz R 2022 · 5.44 FIP	20	SW	5.44	16.1%	18.2%	2.5%	.252	4.85	16.3%	-1.2%	66	-0.59	3.96	216	87
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	85
Juan Perez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	21	SW	5.39	15.4%	14.1%	3.3%	.321	4.52	10.8%	0.0%	56	-0.87	4.52	113	85
Mason McGwire R 2024 · 6.46 FIP	20	SP-	6.46	11.7%	21.2%	3.0%	.298	4.11	21.4%	10.7%	79	-2.35	4.11	155	83
Jacob Cravey R 2024 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP-	5.15	14.4%	18.0%	1.8%	.333	5.84	14.7%	1.0%	124	+0.69	4.97	208	82
Jefferson Medina R 2015 · 5.12 FIP	21	SP-	5.12	13.1%	16.1%	2.0%	.279	3.89	14.1%	2.6%	187	-1.23	3.56	350	82
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.48	352	82
Jose Alberto Rivera R 2017 · 5.65 FIP	20	SW	5.65	16.1%	19.2%	2.7%	.185	3.68	20.3%	9.9%	115	-1.97	3.39	163	82
Yeury Tatiz R 2021 · 5.54 FIP	20	SP-	5.54	17.4%	15.6%	3.5%	.295	5.10	13.0%	-1.0%	100	-0.44	3.73	221	82
Keegan Zinn R 2024 · 6.40 FIP	19	SP-	6.40	19.1%	19.5%	4.4%	.318	5.80	19.0%	-1.9%	112	-0.60	4.88	145	81
Garrett Nuss R 2015 · 5.71 FIP	22	SW	5.71	14.1%	14.9%	3.5%	.352	4.58	15.0%	5.3%	92	-1.13	4.57	174	81
Lisander Brito R 2022 · 5.62 FIP	20	SP-	5.62	14.1%	15.0%	3.3%	.309	3.23	18.9%	5.3%	21	-2.39	3.23	101	81
Manuel Perez R 2024 · 5.41 FIP	18	SW	5.41	13.7%	19.8%	1.7%	.319	4.93	13.6%	1.4%	78	-0.48	3.40	188	81
Kolton Curtis R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	20	SP-	4.91	17.2%	14.4%	2.6%	.236	4.41	19.9%	2.5%	66	-0.50	4.41	148	80
Alejandro Hidalgo R 2023 · 6.05 FIP	20	SW	6.05	16.0%	21.7%	2.8%	.283	6.42	22.0%	9.7%	151	+0.37	4.03	275	80
Erick Reynoso R 2023 · 6.37 FIP	20	SP-	6.37	10.7%	20.4%	2.9%	.305	6.44	14.9%	-7.7%	146	+0.07	6.06	180	80
Michele Vassalotti R 2021 · 5.31 FIP	20	SP-	5.31	17.8%	20.8%	2.0%	.280	4.22	19.1%	2.6%	82	-1.09	2.60	238	80
Seth McClung R 2003 · 5.63 FIP	22	SW	5.63	15.0%	14.4%	3.6%	.241	5.29	15.3%	2.8%	212	-0.34	2.52	430	80
Orlando Gonzalez R 2024 · 6.34 FIP	21	SP-	6.34	13.8%	18.8%	3.7%	.155	4.18	18.9%	4.9%	71	-2.16	3.83	114	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.8	97	21.5%	12.5%	1.12	4.87
Tom Griffin ('69-'82, 1 WAR*)	7.5	107	22.6%*	11.4%*	1.21*	4.93*
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
David West ('88-'98, 1 WAR*)	2.8	71	22.1%*	12.1%*	1.28*	4.79*
Gerry Arrigo ('61-'70, 1 WAR*)	3.1	103	20.0%*	11.6%*	1.17*	4.98*
Jorge De La Rosa ('18)	7.6	109	19.1%	10.3%	1.05	4.58
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	4.4	98	17.2%	12.0%	0.90	4.45