Orlando Gonzalez

P Clearwater Threshers

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 220 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	MIX2 levels	13	7	43	1.67	4.87	19.8%	15.3%	—	K 13.8% · BB 18.8% · FIP 6.34
2025	22	MIX2 levels	28	2	49	4.22	2.88	21.6%	8.7%	—	K 16.0% · BB 10.8% · FIP 3.83
2026	23	MIX2 levels	19	0	29	3.77	3.20	32.3%	15.3%	—	K 23.2% · BB 18.7% · FIP 4.70
2027PROJ	24	MLBPHI	—	—	0	5.56	5.56	18.5%	16.2%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBPHI	17	0	18	5.33	5.25	19.4%	14.4%	-0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBPHI	23	0	24	5.20	5.16	19.9%	14.0%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control40Command40

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsBrett Lockwood (age 24) · Cole Hillier (age 23) · Hayden Snelsire (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139131vR 123

ERA5.56

FIP5.56

K%18.5%

BB%16.2%

K-BB%2.2%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	7	43	177	35	27	5	54%	3.3	13.8%	18.8%	-5.0%	3.7%	1.67	6.34	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	7	43	177	35	27	5	54%	3.3	13.8%	18.8%	-5.0%	3.7%	1.67	6.34	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	7	43	177	35	27	5	54%	3.3	19.8%	15.3%	4.5%	2.8%	1.67	4.87	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	2	49	218	47	19	2	7%	1.8	16.0%	10.8%	5.2%	1.3%	4.22	3.83	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	2	49	218	47	19	2	7%	1.8	16.0%	10.8%	5.2%	1.3%	4.22	3.83	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	2	49	218	47	19	2	7%	1.8	21.6%	8.7%	12.8%	0.9%	4.22	2.88	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	0	29	124	40	19	2	0%	1.5	23.2%	18.7%	4.5%	2.2%	3.77	4.70	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	0	29	124	40	19	2	0%	1.5	23.2%	18.7%	4.5%	2.2%	3.77	4.70	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	0	29	124	40	19	2	0%	1.5	32.3%	15.3%	16.9%	1.6%	3.77	3.20	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	PHI	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.5%	16.2%	2.2%	2.9%	5.56	5.56	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	PHI	40	0	42	176	34	25	5	0%	1.0	19.4%	14.4%	4.9%	2.9%	5.33	5.25	-0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	PHI	35	0	36	154	31	22	4	0%	1.0	19.9%	14.0%	5.9%	2.9%	5.20	5.16	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	PHI	17	0	18	76	15	11	2	0%	1.1	19.4%	14.4%	4.9%	2.9%	5.33	5.25	-0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	PHI	23	0	24	101	20	14	3	0%	1.0	19.9%	14.0%	5.9%	2.9%	5.20	5.16	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		40	0	42	177	35	25	5	0%	1.0	19.6%	14.2%	5.5%	2.9%	5.26	4.82	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	167	119	24	0%	1.1	19.6%	14.2%	5.5%	2.9%	5.26	4.82	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		60	9	121	519	88	80	12	15%	2.0	17.0%	15.4%	1.5%	2.3%	3.21	4.90	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		99	15	200	860	146	133	20	15%	2.0	17.0%	15.4%	1.5%	2.3%	3.21	4.90	-1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AClearwater Threshers · 18 IPFIP 2.12 → 3.40 (+1.29)K% 37.0% → 27.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.99%	—	×0.740	27.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.96%	—	×1.180	12.93%
HR / BF /BF	1.37%	÷1.000	×1.300	1.78%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.12 → 3.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKFCL Phillies · 11 IPFIP 4.76 → 6.56 (+1.80)K% 25.5% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.49%	—	×0.680	17.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	21.57%	—	×1.250	26.96%
HR / BF /BF	1.96%	÷1.000	×1.400	2.75%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.76 → 6.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AClearwater Threshers · 42 IPFIP 3.03 → 3.83 (+0.80)K% 21.6% → 16.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.62%	—	×0.740	16.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.19%	—	×1.180	10.84%
HR / BF /BF	1.08%	÷1.083	×1.300	1.30%

Result: FIP 3.03 → 3.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Phillies · 7 IPFIP 2.08 → 2.84 (+0.77)K% 21.2% → 14.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.21%	—	×0.680	14.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.06%	—	×1.250	7.58%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.917	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.08 → 2.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Phillies · 29 IPFIP 4.54 → 6.11 (+1.57)K% 20.0% → 13.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.680	13.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.50%	—	×1.250	21.88%
HR / BF /BF	1.67%	÷0.924	×1.400	2.53%

Result: FIP 4.54 → 6.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AClearwater Threshers · 14 IPFIP 5.69 → 6.84 (+1.14)K% 19.3% → 14.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.30%	—	×0.740	14.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.53%	—	×1.180	12.42%
HR / BF /BF	5.26%	÷1.115	×1.300	6.14%

Result: FIP 5.69 → 6.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Orlando Gonzalez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.56	18.5%	16.2%	2.9%	—	5.21	19.6%	5.4%	78	-0.35	—	—	—
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	89
Cole Hillier R 2024 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	16.9%	14.7%	2.0%	.297	4.45	18.1%	4.5%	111	-0.19	3.80	169	87
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	87
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	87
Kris Hall R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	18.3%	17.8%	1.5%	.281	7.01	12.7%	-7.8%	34	+2.38	4.63	106	86
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	86
David Trexler R 2015 · 4.62 FIP	24	SU	4.62	17.7%	13.4%	2.4%	.313	4.44	18.3%	4.8%	31	-0.18	4.44	100	86
Jacob Webb R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SU	4.55	19.8%	15.3%	2.1%	.283	4.54	19.0%	8.4%	155	-0.01	3.33	268	86
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	85
Jeff Soptic R 2015 · 5.30 FIP	24	SU	5.30	15.5%	17.2%	2.5%	.237	5.52	13.6%	-1.7%	68	+0.22	5.30	124	84
Tanner Duncan R 2019 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	17.5%	14.8%	3.4%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	123	84
Josh Harlow R 2024 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	13.5%	3.5%	.266	5.73	17.1%	-4.2%	51	+0.56	5.17	107	84
Noah Murdock R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	19.8%	17.1%	1.8%	.314	3.13	23.1%	9.6%	148	-1.43	2.57	310	84
Taylor Floyd R 2022 · 4.84 FIP	24	SU	4.84	19.6%	18.4%	1.9%	.305	4.30	19.8%	10.2%	184	-0.54	3.48	359	84
Marc Brakeman R 2018 · 4.67 FIP	24	SU	4.67	18.3%	13.7%	2.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	156	84
Everhett Hazelwood R 2023 · 5.70 FIP	24	SU	5.70	19.0%	15.4%	4.1%	.343	9.36	17.5%	0.6%	14	+3.66	5.23	117	84
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.78	21.8%	10.2%	115	-0.60	4.73	183	84
Dylan Spacke R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	24	SU	5.24	16.1%	13.9%	3.2%	.297	4.79	13.6%	0.2%	52	-0.45	2.08	205	84
Jacob Morris R 2015 · 5.43 FIP	24	SU	5.43	18.0%	19.6%	2.5%	.218	4.77	18.7%	-2.4%	46	-0.66	4.77	102	83
Billy Seidl R 2024 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	18.3%	14.2%	2.2%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	102	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	45	19.1%	15.1%	1.12	5.39
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*