Grayson Thurman — OGILVIE

Grayson Thurman P New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.91

FIP4.91

K%19.4%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%9.0%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	1	49	218	56	26	6	3%	1.3	19.5%	14.1%	5.4%	2.5%	4.78	4.63	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	1	49	218	56	26	6	3%	1.3	19.5%	14.1%	5.4%	2.5%	4.78	4.63	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	1	49	218	56	26	6	3%	1.3	25.7%	11.9%	13.8%	2.8%	4.78	4.00	—
2024	25	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	48	0	61	254	72	18	9	0%	1.3	21.8%	8.1%	13.7%	4.2%	3.82	4.58	—
2024	25	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	48	0	61	254	72	18	9	0%	1.3	21.8%	8.1%	13.7%	4.2%	3.82	4.58	—
2024	25	A+ RAW	Vancouver Canadians	48	0	61	254	72	18	9	0%	1.3	28.3%	7.1%	21.3%	3.5%	3.82	3.54	—
2025	26	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	23	0	25	106	20	12	3	0%	1.1	15.3%	12.5%	2.8%	3.8%	4.62	5.49	—
2025	26	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	23	0	25	106	20	12	3	0%	1.1	15.3%	12.5%	2.8%	3.8%	4.62	5.49	—
2025	26	AA RAW	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	23	0	25	106	20	12	3	0%	1.1	18.9%	11.3%	7.5%	2.8%	4.62	4.48	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	TOR	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	19.4%	10.4%	9.0%	3.2%	4.91	4.91	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	TOR	21	0	22	93	18	10	3	0%	1.0	19.7%	10.4%	9.2%	3.3%	4.90	4.93	-0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	TOR	8	0	8	34	7	4	1	0%	1.0	19.7%	10.4%	9.2%	3.3%	4.90	4.93	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	8	35	7	4	1	0%	1.0	19.7%	10.4%	9.2%	3.3%	4.90	4.55	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	169	97	24	0%	1.1	19.7%	10.4%	9.2%	3.3%	4.90	4.55	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		108	1	136	578	114	65	20	1%	1.3	19.8%	11.2%	8.6%	3.5%	4.31	4.76	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		159	1	200	852	168	95	30	1%	1.3	19.8%	11.2%	8.6%	3.5%	4.31	4.76	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Grayson Thurman (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.91	19.4%	10.4%	3.2%	—	4.93	19.7%	9.2%	22	+0.02	—	—	—
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	87
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	86
Rob Scahill R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	28	SU	3.91	16.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.288	3.34	17.9%	10.1%	171	-0.57	3.06	201	86
Michael Dimock R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	27	SU	4.12	18.9%	7.8%	2.9%	.339	3.37	23.5%	12.8%	29	-0.75	3.08	166	85
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	84
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	84
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	84
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	84
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	83
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	83
Michael Blazek R 2016 · 4.92 FIP	27	SU	4.92	17.9%	11.9%	3.3%	.336	4.43	17.5%	8.0%	124	-0.49	2.99	221	83
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	83
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	82
Adrian Garza R 2015 · 5.47 FIP	27	SU	5.47	14.9%	10.5%	4.2%	.360	4.17	13.1%	6.5%	84	-1.30	3.94	229	82
Guido Knudson R 2016 · 4.69 FIP	26	SU	4.69	17.5%	10.8%	3.1%	.235	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	106	82
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	81
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	81
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	81
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	81
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	81