Grayson Thurman

P New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 28 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	24	MIX2 levels	37	1	49	4.78	4.00	25.7%	11.9%	—	K 19.5% · BB 14.1% · FIP 4.63
2024	25	A+TOR	48	0	61	3.82	3.54	28.3%	7.1%	—	K 21.8% · BB 8.1% · FIP 4.58
2025	26	AATOR	23	0	25	4.62	4.48	18.9%	11.3%	—	K 15.3% · BB 12.5% · FIP 5.49
2026	27	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	28	MLBTOR	—	—	0	4.77	4.77	19.9%	10.1%	—
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBTOR	5	0	5	4.80	4.86	20.0%	10.2%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsNeil Wagner (age 29) · Wirfin Obispo (age 30) · Tyler Sturdevant (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.77

FIP4.77

K%19.9%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%9.8%

Proj IP20

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	1	49	218	56	26	6	3%	1.3	19.5%	14.1%	5.4%	2.5%	4.78	4.63	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	1	49	218	56	26	6	3%	1.3	25.7%	11.9%	13.8%	2.8%	4.78	4.00	—
2024	25	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	48	0	61	254	72	18	9	0%	1.3	21.8%	8.1%	13.7%	4.2%	3.82	4.58	—
2024	25	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	48	0	61	254	72	18	9	0%	1.3	21.8%	8.1%	13.7%	4.2%	3.82	4.58	—
2024	25	A+ RAW	Vancouver Canadians	48	0	61	254	72	18	9	0%	1.3	28.3%	7.1%	21.3%	3.5%	3.82	3.54	—
2025	26	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	23	0	25	106	20	12	3	0%	1.1	15.3%	12.5%	2.8%	3.8%	4.62	5.49	—
2025	26	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	23	0	25	106	20	12	3	0%	1.1	15.3%	12.5%	2.8%	3.8%	4.62	5.49	—
2025	26	AA RAW	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	23	0	25	106	20	12	3	0%	1.1	18.9%	11.3%	7.5%	2.8%	4.62	4.48	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	TOR	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.9%	10.1%	9.8%	3.1%	4.77	4.77	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	TOR	16	0	17	71	14	7	2	0%	1.1	20.0%	10.2%	9.8%	3.2%	4.80	4.86	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	TOR	5	0	5	21	4	2	1	0%	1.0	20.0%	10.2%	9.8%	3.2%	4.80	4.86	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		5	0	5	22	4	2	1	0%	1.1	20.0%	10.2%	9.8%	3.2%	4.80	4.48	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	151	76	38	0%	1.1	20.0%	10.2%	9.8%	3.2%	4.80	4.48	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		108	1	136	578	114	65	20	1%	1.3	19.8%	11.2%	8.6%	3.5%	4.31	4.76	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		159	1	200	852	168	95	30	1%	1.3	19.8%	11.2%	8.6%	3.5%	4.31	4.76	-0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 25 IPFIP 4.49 → 5.49 (+1.00)K% 18.9% → 15.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.87%	—	×0.810	15.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.32%	—	×1.100	12.45%
HR / BF /BF	2.83%	÷0.885	×1.200	3.84%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 77).

Result: FIP 4.49 → 5.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Vancouver Canadians · 61 IPFIP 3.55 → 4.58 (+1.03)K% 28.3% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.35%	—	×0.770	21.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.09%	—	×1.150	8.15%
HR / BF /BF	3.54%	÷1.062	×1.250	4.17%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).

Result: FIP 3.55 → 4.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ADunedin Blue Jays · 45 IPFIP 3.75 → 4.63 (+0.87)K% 26.4% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.37%	—	×0.740	19.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.94%	—	×1.180	14.09%
HR / BF /BF	2.49%	÷1.279	×1.300	2.53%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 156).

Result: FIP 3.75 → 4.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Grayson Thurman (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.77	19.9%	10.1%	3.1%	—	4.86	20.0%	9.8%	17	+0.09	—	—	—
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	86
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	86
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	84
Tyler Yates R 2006 · 4.17 FIP	28	SU	4.17	21.2%	10.6%	2.8%	.254	3.70	20.7%	11.1%	151	-0.47	3.23	248	84
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	84
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	84
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	84
Jeff Fulchino R 2008 · 4.62 FIP	28	SU	4.62	16.7%	11.1%	2.8%	.380	3.86	21.0%	12.4%	164	-0.76	3.36	178	83
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	83
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	83
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	83
Santiago Casilla R 2008 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	18.8%	7.9%	2.2%	.337	3.37	20.6%	10.4%	155	-0.34	2.76	647	83
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	83
Carlos Fisher R 2011 · 4.33 FIP	28	SU	4.33	15.5%	9.1%	2.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	245	82
J.J. Putz R 2005 · 4.36 FIP	28	SU	4.36	17.4%	8.1%	3.1%	.270	2.24	31.4%	25.1%	196	-2.12	1.43	563	82
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	82
Greg Burke R 2009 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	16.2%	8.8%	2.0%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	139	82
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	81
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	81
Jason Boyd R 2000 · 3.68 FIP	27	SU	3.68	19.9%	12.4%	1.2%	.346	4.86	13.9%	2.8%	81	+1.18	3.68	128	81