Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 56 | 227 | 84 | 23 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 27.7% | 12.1% | 15.6% | 1.9% | 2.89 | 3.34 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 56 | 227 | 84 | 23 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 37.0% | 10.1% | 26.9% | 1.8% | 2.89 | 2.26 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 57 | 269 | 67 | 44 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 19.6% | 18.4% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 5.49 | 4.92 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 57 | 269 | 67 | 44 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 24.9% | 16.4% | 8.6% | 1.5% | 5.49 | 3.97 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 61 | 267 | 73 | 26 | 8 | 0% | 1.4 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 2.7% | 4.84 | 4.14 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 61 | 267 | 73 | 26 | 8 | 0% | 1.4 | 27.3% | 9.7% | 17.6% | 3.0% | 4.84 | 3.69 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 44 | 1 | 65 | 280 | 59 | 26 | 3 | 2% | 1.5 | 17.1% | 10.2% | 6.9% | 1.9% | 4.04 | 3.97 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 44 | 1 | 65 | 280 | 59 | 26 | 3 | 2% | 1.5 | 21.1% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 1.1% | 4.04 | 3.08 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 45 | 0 | 58 | 263 | 68 | 19 | 8 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.9% | 7.9% | 13.0% | 6.1% | 4.53 | 5.67 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 45 | 0 | 58 | 263 | 68 | 19 | 8 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.9% | 7.2% | 18.6% | 3.0% | 4.53 | 3.53 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 21 | 0 | 45 | 188 | 37 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 2.1 | 15.9% | 10.5% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 4.63 | 5.19 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | CIN | 66 | 0 | 69 | 293 | 58 | 24 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 8.3% | 11.7% | 3.5% | 4.78 | 4.78 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | CIN | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.9% | 8.3% | 11.7% | 3.5% | 4.78 | 4.78 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 114 | 481 | 95 | 42 | 16 | — | — | 19.8% | 8.8% | 11.0% | 3.4% | 4.72 | 4.94 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 19.9% | 8.3% | 11.6% | 3.5% | 4.78 | 4.40 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 63 | 0 | 66 | 280 | 56 | 24 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 8.6% | 11.4% | 3.6% | 4.81 | 4.86 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 59 | 0 | 62 | 263 | 52 | 24 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 3.8% | 4.91 | 5.00 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 20 | 0 | 21 | 89 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 8.6% | 11.4% | 3.6% | 4.81 | 4.86 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 30 | 0 | 32 | 135 | 27 | 12 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 3.8% | 4.91 | 5.00 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 46 | 20 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 3.7% | 4.87 | 4.56 | -0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 170 | 74 | 30 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 3.7% | 4.87 | 4.56 | +2.0 | ||
| Career | — | 234 | 1 | 342 | 1494 | 306 | 175 | 46 | 0% | 1.5 | 20.5% | 11.7% | 8.8% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.53 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 137 | 1 | 200 | 875 | 179 | 103 | 27 | 0% | 1.5 | 20.5% | 11.7% | 8.8% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.53 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Taylor Floyd (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.78 | 19.9% | 8.3% | 3.5% | — | 4.93 | 20.0% | 11.2% | 128 | +0.15 | — | — | — |
| A.J. Schugel R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.18 | 20.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .307 | 6.22 | 17.6% | 10.6% | 13 | +2.04 | 2.75 | 299 | 87 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.84 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 3.2% | .324 | 3.81 | 22.0% | 12.8% | 135 | -0.03 | 3.57 | 224 | 85 |
| Francisco Mendoza R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.11 | 17.9% | 7.7% | 2.8% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 120 | 84 |
| J.J. Hoover R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.69 | 22.6% | 8.6% | 4.4% | .350 | 5.85 | 20.3% | 10.0% | 137 | +1.16 | 4.26 | 258 | 84 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 1.8% | .333 | 4.06 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.44 | 3.62 | 147 | 84 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.69 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .297 | 4.04 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.65 | 4.04 | 102 | 84 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2029 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 84 |
| Bo Schultz R 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.31 | 18.3% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .218 | 3.45 | 15.1% | 8.9% | 77 | -0.86 | 2.73 | 141 | 84 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.20 | 21.9% | 8.4% | 3.4% | .275 | 3.73 | 22.1% | 12.1% | 103 | -0.47 | 2.59 | 309 | 83 |
| Marc Magliaro R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.72 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 125 | 83 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.96 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .275 | 7.33 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +2.37 | 3.78 | 180 | 83 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.87 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .276 | 2.42 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 34 | -1.45 | 2.42 | 125 | 83 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.99 | 17.2% | 8.8% | 2.2% | .309 | 4.16 | 21.2% | 13.3% | 48 | +0.17 | 3.23 | 253 | 83 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 82 |
| Blake Smith R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.66 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 124 | 82 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2027 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 81 |
| Rob Scahill R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.83 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 2.1% | .288 | 3.34 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 171 | -0.49 | 2.93 | 201 | 81 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 80 |
| Roman Mendez R 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.21 | 21.0% | 9.2% | 5.0% | .268 | 4.58 | 20.8% | 9.7% | 62 | -0.63 | 4.12 | 230 | 80 |
| Erik Goeddel R 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.24 | 21.5% | 8.4% | 5.3% | .296 | 3.59 | 28.4% | 17.4% | 37 | -1.65 | 2.01 | 193 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 66 | 20.0% | 8.6% | 1.41 | 4.83 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |