Noah Murdock — OGILVIE

Noah Murdock P Indianapolis Indians

Age 27 RHP 6'8" / 234 lbs AAA ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION51 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.55

FIP4.67

K%20.8%

BB%14.7%

K-BB%6.2%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5194.6

Whiff%

p5325.8%

p4521.4%

xwOBA vs

p100.360

SI (53%)

CT-2.2 (23%)

SL-2.8 (20%)

FB-3.2 (57%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	7	6	23	96	19	11	0	86%	3.2	15.2%	13.2%	2.1%	0.0%	3.18	3.48	—
2021	22	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	7	6	23	96	19	11	0	86%	3.2	19.8%	11.5%	8.3%	0.0%	3.18	2.88	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	70	341	64	44	12	100%	4.1	14.7%	14.5%	0.2%	4.5%	6.91	6.19	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	17	70	341	64	44	12	100%	4.1	18.8%	12.9%	5.9%	3.5%	6.91	5.37	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	36	1	69	315	77	49	4	3%	1.9	19.8%	17.1%	2.7%	1.7%	5.87	4.56	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	36	1	69	315	77	49	4	3%	1.9	19.8%	17.1%	2.7%	1.7%	5.87	4.56	—
2023	24	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	36	1	69	315	77	49	4	3%	1.9	24.4%	15.6%	8.9%	1.3%	5.87	3.75	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	63	267	72	41	0	0%	1.4	22.2%	14.9%	7.2%	0.0%	3.16	3.12	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	63	267	72	41	0	0%	1.4	22.2%	14.9%	7.2%	0.0%	3.16	3.12	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	63	267	72	41	0	0%	1.4	27.0%	15.4%	11.6%	0.0%	3.16	2.76	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	38	197	41	30	2	0%	1.3	19.1%	14.6%	4.5%	1.1%	9.24	3.94	+0.3
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	38	197	41	30	2	0%	1.3	19.1%	14.6%	4.5%	1.1%	9.24	3.94	+0.3
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	0	38	197	41	30	2	0%	1.3	20.8%	15.2%	5.6%	1.0%	9.24	3.99	+0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			17	0	20	113	25	20	0	0%	1.2	22.1%	17.7%	4.4%	0.0%	11.07	3.59	+0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	40	4	51	213	65	23	1	10%	1.3	26.1%	10.6%	15.6%	0.7%	3.91	2.60	—
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	40	4	51	213	65	23	1	10%	1.3	26.1%	10.6%	15.6%	0.7%	3.91	2.60	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	A RAW	PIT	4	0	4	18	4	0	0	0%	1.1	22.2%	0.0%	22.2%	0.0%	2.08	1.22	—
2026	27	AA RAW	PIT	9	1	14	53	14	5	1	11%	1.5	26.4%	9.4%	17.0%	1.9%	4.61	3.10	—
2026	27	AAA RAW	PIT	24	3	29	127	43	15	0	12%	1.2	33.9%	11.8%	22.0%	0.0%	4.30	1.74	—
2026	27	MLB RAW	PIT	3	0	3	15	4	3	0	0%	1.1	26.7%	20.0%	6.7%	0.0%	0.00	3.38	—
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	PIT	3	0	3	15	4	3	0	0%	1.1	26.7%	20.0%	6.7%	0.0%	0.00	3.38	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	PIT	2	0	2	10	2	2	0	0%	1.2	20.8%	14.7%	6.2%	2.0%	4.55	4.67	-0.0
ROS	27	MLB CTX	PIT	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	20.8%	14.7%	6.2%	2.0%	4.55	4.67	-0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	PIT	—	—	53	223	67	25	1	—	—	30.1%	11.0%	19.1%	0.5%	3.94	2.69	+1.3
FULL	27	MLB A+C	PIT	—	—	6	24	67	25	1	—	—	275.5%	100.6%	174.9%	4.9%	36.22	-4.71	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	PIT	27	0	28	118	25	17	3	0%	1.0	20.9%	14.3%	6.7%	2.2%	4.64	4.72	-0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	PIT	26	0	27	114	24	16	2	0%	1.0	20.9%	14.3%	6.7%	2.2%	4.64	4.72	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		45	0	49	236	51	38	3	0%	1.1	21.5%	15.9%	5.6%	1.1%	7.28	3.92	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		181	0	200	954	207	154	12	0%	1.1	21.5%	15.9%	5.6%	1.1%	7.28	3.92	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		176	28	313	1429	280	207	25	16%	1.8	19.6%	14.5%	5.1%	1.7%	5.46	4.23	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		112	18	200	912	179	132	16	16%	1.8	19.6%	14.5%	5.1%	1.7%	5.46	4.23	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Noah Murdock (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.67	20.8%	14.7%	2.0%	—	4.72	20.9%	6.7%	28	+0.05	—	—	—
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	84
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	83
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	82
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	82
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	81
Theo Denlinger R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	27	SU	4.21	19.8%	15.1%	1.6%	.266	4.23	15.3%	9.9%	41	+0.02	2.92	140	81
Tommy Nance R 2018 · 4.09 FIP	27	SU	4.09	18.6%	13.9%	1.5%	.236	3.47	23.3%	14.2%	91	-0.62	2.12	354	81
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	80
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	80
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	79
Erik Davis R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	28	SU	3.95	17.9%	13.5%	1.2%	.363	3.64	21.1%	11.3%	181	-0.31	3.05	227	79
Cole Uvila R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	27	SU	4.06	20.4%	13.2%	1.8%	.360	3.16	20.2%	6.3%	44	-0.90	3.16	155	79
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	78
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	78
Gregory Infante R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	28	SU	4.54	16.9%	15.7%	1.6%	.290	3.78	21.3%	12.7%	181	-0.76	2.97	230	78
Brad Goldberg R 2017 · 4.38 FIP	27	SU	4.38	18.4%	15.4%	1.6%	.331	3.14	30.3%	13.3%	36	-1.24	3.14	197	78
Jeff Johnson R 2017 · 3.69 FIP	27	SU	3.69	23.6%	15.6%	1.1%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	160	78
Matt Wivinis R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	19.5%	12.2%	1.5%	.262	5.95	14.5%	6.2%	17	+2.11	1.61	124	78
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	78
Cody Scroggins R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	25	SU	4.50	20.5%	16.2%	2.0%	.351	3.78	14.2%	4.6%	18	-0.72	3.78	108	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	27	20.9%	14.5%	0.81	4.60
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10