Noah Murdock
P
Omaha Storm Chasers
+0.2
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'8" / 234 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA7.98
FIP4.48
xFIP6.27
SIERA5.75
K%21.8%
BB%13.8%
K-BB%8.0%
IP41
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
K†5050
FB Velo
p5194.6
Whiff%
p5325.8%
K%
p4521.4%
xwOBA vs
p100.360
SI (53%)
CT-2.2 (23%)
SL-2.8 (20%)
FB-3.2 (57%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 7 | 6 | 23 | 96 | 19 | 11 | 0 | 15.2% | 13.2% | 0.0% | 3.18 | 3.48 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 17 | 17 | 70 | 341 | 64 | 44 | 12 | 14.7% | 14.5% | 4.6% | 6.91 | 6.20 | -0.9 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 36 | 1 | 69 | 315 | 77 | 49 | 4 | 19.8% | 17.1% | 1.7% | 5.87 | 4.51 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 46 | 0 | 63 | 267 | 72 | 41 | 0 | 23.0% | 16.4% | 0.0% | 3.16 | 3.23 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Athletics | 30 | 0 | 38 | 197 | 41 | 30 | 2 | 19.6% | 15.6% | 1.1% | 9.24 | 4.03 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 38 | 24 | 3 | 21.8% | 13.8% | 2.0% | 7.98 | 4.48 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 41 | — | 41 | 171 | 38 | 23 | 4 | 21.9% | 13.4% | 2.1% | 5.88 | 4.49 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 40 | — | 40 | 168 | 36 | 22 | 4 | 21.6% | 13.2% | 2.2% | 5.07 | 4.55 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 38 | — | 38 | 163 | 34 | 21 | 4 | 21.1% | 13.1% | 2.3% | 4.80 | 4.63 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 32 | 21 | 4 | 20.6% | 13.1% | 2.4% | 4.75 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | OAK | 36 | — | 36 | 151 | 30 | 20 | 4 | 19.9% | 13.2% | 2.5% | 4.80 | 4.84 | +0.0 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 34 | — | 34 | 144 | 28 | 19 | 4 | 19.3% | 13.4% | 2.6% | 4.90 | 4.97 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | OAK | 32 | — | 32 | 137 | 25 | 19 | 4 | 18.6% | 13.6% | 2.7% | 5.02 | 5.11 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | OAK | 30 | — | 30 | 129 | 23 | 18 | 4 | 17.8% | 13.8% | 2.8% | 5.16 | 5.26 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | OAK | 28 | — | 28 | 120 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 17.1% | 14.1% | 2.9% | 5.32 | 5.42 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 136 | 24 | 263 | 1216 | 227 | 191 | 23 | 18.7% | 15.7% | 1.9% | 5.76 | 4.54 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 104 | 18 | 200 | 926 | 173 | 145 | 18 | 18.7% | 15.7% | 1.9% | 5.76 | 4.54 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Noah Murdock (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.48 | 21.8% | 13.8% | 2.0% | — | 4.56 | 21.5% | 8.3% | 119 | +0.08 | — | — | — |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 86 |
| Derek Eitel R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.34 | 18.1% | 13.9% | 1.8% | .338 | 4.29 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 113 | -0.05 | 4.00 | 138 | 86 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.1% | .265 | 3.87 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.98 | 3.45 | 315 | 85 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.60 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .328 | 3.47 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 170 | -0.13 | 3.16 | 254 | 84 |
| Tommy Nance R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.10 | 18.6% | 13.9% | 1.5% | .236 | 3.42 | 23.3% | 14.2% | 91 | -0.68 | 2.11 | 300 | 82 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2025 · 4.41 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.41 | 21.8% | 14.5% | 2.4% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 154 | 82 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.9% | .355 | 4.49 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | -0.08 | 3.70 | 187 | 81 |
| Matt Wivinis R 2025 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.83 | 19.5% | 12.2% | 1.5% | .262 | 5.90 | 14.5% | 6.2% | 17 | +2.07 | 1.61 | 124 | 81 |
| Theo Denlinger R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.34 | 20.2% | 16.4% | 1.6% | .266 | 4.24 | 15.3% | 9.9% | 41 | -0.10 | 2.90 | 140 | 81 |
| Cole McDonald R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.16 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 3.8% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.84 | 153 | 80 |
| Erik Davis R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.95 | 17.9% | 13.5% | 1.2% | .363 | 3.64 | 21.1% | 11.3% | 181 | -0.31 | 3.05 | 227 | 80 |
| Burch Smith R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.92 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .234 | 4.45 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 192 | +0.53 | 3.42 | 365 | 80 |
| Jacob Bosiokovic R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.93 | 26.4% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .274 | 4.99 | 22.1% | 8.9% | 69 | +1.06 | 3.83 | 181 | 80 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2029 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 80 |
| Armando Rivero R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.26 | 18.7% | 13.5% | 1.9% | .256 | 2.69 | 32.9% | 19.8% | 68 | -1.57 | 2.69 | 125 | 79 |
| Grant Black R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.46 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +1.00 | 4.46 | 215 | 79 |
| Michael Ynoa R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.68 | 23.1% | 13.8% | 3.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 142 | 79 |
| Sean Harney R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.34 | 16.9% | 14.8% | 1.4% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 123 | 79 |
| Cayne Ueckert R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.94 | 23.4% | 14.0% | 1.9% | .337 | 5.65 | 19.2% | 4.6% | 64 | +1.71 | 3.94 | 205 | 78 |
| Jeff Johnson R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.71 | 23.6% | 15.6% | 1.1% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.49 | 160 | 78 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.