Noah Murdock

P Indianapolis Indians

Age 28 RHP 6'8" / 234 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	46	0	63	3.16	2.76	27.0%	15.4%	—	K 22.7% · BB 14.9% · FIP 3.08
2025	26	MIX2 levels	30	0	38	9.24	3.99	20.8%	15.2%	0.2	K 19.4% · BB 14.6% · FIP 3.92
2026	27	MIX4 levels	43	4	55	3.58	2.21	30.4%	11.3%	1.6	K 26.7% · BB 11.0% · FIP 2.57
2027PROJ	28	MLBPIT	18	0	19	4.21	4.10	24.3%	12.4%	0.1
2028PROJ78% MLB	29	MLBPIT	16	0	17	4.26	4.28	23.6%	12.3%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.8 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

FB Velo51

K%45

xwOBA vs10

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsDaniel Robert (age 28) · Josh Lueke (age 28) · Michael Dimock (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111103vR 95

ERA4.21

FIP4.10

K%24.3%

BB%12.4%

K-BB%11.9%

Proj IP27

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5194.6

Whiff%

p5325.8%

p4521.4%

xwOBA vs

p100.360

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	7	6	23	96	19	11	0	86%	3.2	15.2%	13.2%	2.1%	0.0%	3.18	3.48	—
2021	22	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	7	6	23	96	19	11	0	86%	3.2	19.8%	11.5%	8.3%	0.0%	3.18	2.88	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	70	341	64	44	12	100%	4.1	14.7%	14.5%	0.2%	4.5%	6.91	6.19	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	17	70	341	64	44	12	100%	4.1	18.8%	12.9%	5.9%	3.5%	6.91	5.37	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	36	1	69	315	77	49	4	3%	1.9	19.8%	17.1%	2.7%	1.7%	5.87	4.56	—
2023	24	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	36	1	69	315	77	49	4	3%	1.9	24.4%	15.6%	8.9%	1.3%	5.87	3.75	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	63	267	72	41	0	0%	1.4	22.7%	14.9%	7.8%	0.0%	3.16	3.08	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	63	267	72	41	0	0%	1.4	22.7%	14.9%	7.8%	0.0%	3.16	3.08	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	63	267	72	41	0	0%	1.4	27.0%	15.4%	11.6%	0.0%	3.16	2.76	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	38	197	41	30	2	0%	1.3	19.4%	14.6%	4.8%	1.1%	9.24	3.92	+0.3
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	38	197	41	30	2	0%	1.3	19.4%	14.6%	4.8%	1.1%	9.24	3.92	+0.3
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	0	38	197	41	30	2	0%	1.3	20.8%	15.2%	5.6%	1.0%	9.24	3.99	+0.2
2026	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	43	4	55	230	70	26	1	9%	1.3	26.7%	11.0%	15.7%	0.6%	3.58	2.57	+1.3
2026	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	43	4	55	230	70	26	1	9%	1.3	26.7%	11.0%	15.7%	0.6%	3.58	2.57	+1.3
2026	27	MIX RAW	4 levels	43	4	55	230	70	26	1	9%	1.3	30.4%	11.3%	19.1%	0.4%	3.58	2.21	+1.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			17	0	20	113	25	20	0	0%	1.2	22.1%	17.7%	4.4%	0.0%	11.07	3.59	+0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	PIT	18	0	19	80	19	10	2	0%	1.1	24.3%	12.4%	11.9%	2.0%	4.21	4.10	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	PIT	21	0	22	94	22	12	2	0%	1.1	23.6%	12.3%	11.3%	2.3%	4.26	4.28	+0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	PIT	16	0	17	72	17	9	2	0%	1.1	23.6%	12.3%	11.3%	2.3%	4.26	4.28	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		34	0	38	186	42	29	2	0%	1.1	22.7%	15.6%	7.1%	0.9%	7.93	3.64	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		178	0	200	988	223	154	11	0%	1.1	22.7%	15.6%	7.1%	0.9%	7.93	3.64	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		179	28	318	1446	288	210	25	16%	1.8	19.9%	14.5%	5.4%	1.7%	5.38	4.20	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		113	18	200	909	181	132	15	16%	1.8	19.9%	14.5%	5.4%	1.7%	5.38	4.20	+1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 34 IPFIP 1.87 → 2.10 (+0.24)K% 33.3% → 28.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.860	28.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.50%	—	×0.900	11.25%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.87 → 2.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAltoona Curve · 14 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.85 (+0.75)K% 26.4% → 21.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.42%	—	×0.810	21.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.43%	—	×1.100	10.38%
HR / BF /BF	1.89%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.26%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 21 IPFIP 4.17 → 4.35 (+0.18)K% 20.2% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.20%	—	×0.860	17.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.13%	—	×0.900	11.82%
HR / BF /BF	2.02%	÷1.003	×1.100	2.22%

Result: FIP 4.17 → 4.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 38 IPFIP 2.74 → 2.87 (+0.13)K% 27.9% → 24.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.88%	—	×0.860	23.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.76%	—	×0.900	14.18%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.111	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.74 → 2.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 24 IPFIP 2.81 → 3.41 (+0.60)K% 25.5% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.49%	—	×0.810	20.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.71%	—	×1.100	16.18%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.920	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.81 → 3.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 69 IPFIP 3.70 → 4.56 (+0.85)K% 24.4% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.44%	—	×0.810	19.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.56%	—	×1.100	17.11%
HR / BF /BF	1.27%	÷0.872	×1.200	1.75%

Result: FIP 3.70 → 4.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 40 IPFIP 3.84 → 4.66 (+0.82)K% 20.7% → 16.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.74%	—	×0.770	15.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.77%	—	×1.150	14.68%
HR / BF /BF	1.60%	÷1.047	×1.250	1.91%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 109).

Result: FIP 3.84 → 4.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 30 IPFIP 6.60 → 8.08 (+1.48)K% 16.3% → 13.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.34%	—	×0.810	13.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.07%	—	×1.100	14.38%
HR / BF /BF	5.88%	÷0.905	×1.200	7.80%

Result: FIP 6.60 → 8.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Noah Murdock (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.10	24.3%	12.4%	2.0%	—	4.28	23.6%	11.3%	22	+0.18	—	—	—
Daniel Robert R 2023 · 3.45 FIP	28	SU	3.45	22.7%	10.7%	1.7%	.310	3.02	25.4%	17.1%	87	-0.43	2.32	186	80
Josh Lueke R 2013 · 4.09 FIP	28	SU	4.09	25.3%	11.1%	3.1%	.333	3.28	24.6%	20.9%	90	-0.81	2.29	191	78
Michael Dimock R 2018 · 3.37 FIP	28	SU	3.37	23.5%	10.7%	1.6%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	166	77
Marcos Mateo R 2011 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	25.5%	10.2%	2.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	104	77
Jason Boyd R 2000 · 3.68 FIP	27	SU	3.68	19.9%	12.4%	1.2%	.346	4.86	13.9%	2.8%	81	+1.18	3.68	128	76
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	76
Zach Franklin R 2024 · 3.24 FIP	25	SU	3.24	26.4%	10.9%	1.8%	.301	4.15	27.5%	18.3%	117	+0.91	3.24	158	76
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	76
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	76
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	76
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	75
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	75
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	74
Chuck King R 2024 · 3.17 FIP	26	SU	3.17	19.4%	9.9%	0.8%	.308	4.25	15.8%	8.7%	256	+1.08	3.17	294	74
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	73
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	73
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	160	73
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	73
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	28	SU	4.43	23.3%	13.6%	2.9%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	2.64	315	73
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	35	23.3%	15.1%	0.53	6.22
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Lloyd Allen ('69-'75, -5 WAR*)	1.5	59	19.8%*	13.9%*	0.79*	5.99*
Denny Bautista ('10)	1.1	45	17.3%	12.7%	0.85	5.89
Charlie Kerfeld ('85-'90, -0 WAR*)	1.0	50	22.3%*	12.7%*	0.72*	4.84*
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19