Brett Lockwood — OGILVIE

Brett Lockwood P Daytona Tortugas

Age 29 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs A

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.06

FIP5.06

K%21.2%

BB%13.8%

K-BB%7.4%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 1 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	24	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	29	0	53	251	55	33	6	0%	1.8	16.2%	15.5%	0.7%	3.2%	4.89	5.46	—
2021	24	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	29	0	53	251	55	33	6	0%	1.8	21.9%	13.1%	8.8%	2.4%	4.89	4.36	—
2022	25	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	25	0	51	243	38	29	1	0%	2.0	11.6%	14.1%	-2.5%	0.6%	5.82	4.24	—
2022	25	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	25	0	51	243	38	29	1	0%	2.0	15.6%	11.9%	3.7%	0.4%	5.82	3.57	—
2023	26	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	18	0	28	143	19	28	0	0%	1.6	9.8%	23.1%	-13.3%	0.0%	5.79	5.20	—
2023	26	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	18	0	28	143	19	28	0	0%	1.6	9.8%	23.1%	-13.3%	0.0%	5.79	5.20	—
2023	26	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	18	0	28	143	19	28	0	0%	1.6	13.3%	19.6%	-6.3%	0.0%	5.79	4.74	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	CIN	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	21.2%	13.8%	7.4%	3.0%	5.06	5.06	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	CIN	19	0	20	84	18	12	3	0%	1.1	21.1%	13.7%	7.4%	3.2%	5.10	5.17	-0.1
2027	30	MLB CTX	CIN	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	21.1%	13.7%	7.4%	3.2%	5.10	5.17	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	21.1%	13.7%	7.4%	3.2%	5.10	4.79	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	167	100	33	0%	1.1	21.1%	13.7%	7.4%	3.2%	5.10	4.79	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		72	0	132	637	83	106	10	0%	1.8	13.0%	16.7%	-3.7%	1.5%	5.44	4.93	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		109	0	200	963	125	161	14	0%	1.8	13.0%	16.7%	-3.7%	1.5%	5.44	4.93	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brett Lockwood (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.06	21.2%	13.8%	3.0%	—	5.17	21.1%	7.4%	20	+0.11	—	—	—
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	85
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	82
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	80
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	78
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	78
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	77
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	76
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	76
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	76
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	76
Theo Denlinger R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	27	SU	4.21	19.8%	15.1%	1.6%	.266	4.23	15.3%	9.9%	41	+0.02	2.92	140	75
Dan Winkler R 2019 · 4.99 FIP	29	SU	4.99	20.6%	15.2%	3.1%	.237	4.44	23.0%	8.4%	104	-0.55	2.40	231	74
Kevin Lenik R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	27	SU	4.91	21.7%	14.9%	3.2%	.205	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	107	74
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	73
Ronald Peña R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	29	SU	4.49	16.5%	10.4%	2.7%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	187	73
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	72
Roman Mendez R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	29	SU	4.42	20.8%	11.1%	3.0%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	230	72
André Rienzo R 2017 · 4.40 FIP	29	SW	4.40	18.9%	15.6%	1.7%	.301	5.33	17.9%	6.1%	29	+0.93	3.53	200	72
Louis Head R 2019 · 4.85 FIP	29	SU	4.85	21.2%	12.7%	3.5%	.450	3.54	23.7%	13.1%	108	-1.31	2.76	336	72
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	72