Sam Gardner — OGILVIE

Sam Gardner P Buffalo Bisons

Age 29 RHP 6'1" / 205 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 21 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA4.17

FIP4.17

K%26.5%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%15.6%

ROS IP22

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	26	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	21	0	45	191	59	25	3	0%	2.1	23.8%	15.1%	8.7%	1.9%	2.22	4.04	—
2023	26	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	21	0	45	191	59	25	3	0%	2.1	23.8%	15.1%	8.7%	1.9%	2.22	4.04	—
2023	26	A+ RAW	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	21	0	45	191	59	25	3	0%	2.1	30.9%	13.1%	17.8%	1.6%	2.22	3.01	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	0	37	137	53	12	1	0%	1.5	30.1%	10.2%	19.9%	0.8%	2.19	2.28	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	0	37	137	53	12	1	0%	1.5	30.1%	10.2%	19.9%	0.8%	2.19	2.28	—
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	0	37	137	53	12	1	0%	1.5	38.7%	8.8%	29.9%	0.7%	2.19	1.56	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	29	0	39	171	49	18	4	0%	1.3	23.6%	9.7%	13.9%	2.6%	6.05	3.78	—
YTD	29	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	29	0	39	171	49	18	4	0%	1.3	23.6%	9.7%	13.9%	2.6%	6.05	3.78	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	AA RAW	TOR	12	0	13	55	18	2	1	0%	1.1	32.7%	3.6%	29.1%	1.8%	5.68	1.79	—
2026	29	AAA RAW	TOR	17	0	26	116	31	16	3	0%	1.5	26.7%	13.8%	12.9%	2.6%	6.23	4.01	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	TOR	19	0	20	86	22	10	3	0%	1.1	25.9%	11.1%	14.8%	3.0%	4.29	4.36	+0.0
2027	30	MLB CTX	TOR	8	0	8	34	9	4	1	0%	1.0	25.9%	11.1%	14.8%	3.0%	4.29	4.36	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	8	32	8	4	1	0%	1.1	25.9%	11.1%	14.8%	3.0%	4.29	3.98	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	213	107	27	0%	1.1	25.9%	11.1%	14.8%	3.0%	4.29	3.98	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		74	0	120	499	127	59	9	0%	1.6	25.5%	11.9%	13.6%	1.8%	3.44	3.47	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		123	0	200	829	211	99	15	0%	1.6	25.5%	11.9%	13.6%	1.8%	3.44	3.47	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sam Gardner (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.17	26.5%	11.0%	2.8%	—	4.36	25.9%	14.8%	20	+0.19	—	—	—
Cody Hall R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	26.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.299	3.92	25.9%	8.4%	19	-0.11	3.51	134	86
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	83
Erik Davis R 2016 · 3.05 FIP	29	SU	3.05	24.4%	9.5%	1.5%	.329	3.88	19.8%	9.8%	129	+0.83	3.05	227	82
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	81
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	80
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	159	79
David Hernandez R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	30	SU	4.40	22.9%	7.6%	4.1%	.287	3.17	24.9%	18.4%	192	-1.23	2.60	268	79
Brad Brach R 2015 · 3.22 FIP	29	SU	3.22	27.5%	10.8%	1.9%	.259	3.13	25.6%	17.1%	210	-0.09	2.69	410	79
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	212	79
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	79
Ross Ohlendorf R 2015 · 3.30 FIP	32	SU	3.30	23.7%	7.2%	2.3%	.342	4.93	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.63	3.30	122	78
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	78
Carlos Fisher R 2015 · 3.45 FIP	32	SU	3.45	22.6%	11.6%	1.4%	.236	3.17	22.5%	11.1%	91	-0.28	2.48	147	78
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	77
Michael Dimock R 2018 · 3.37 FIP	28	SU	3.37	23.5%	10.7%	1.6%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	166	77
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	77
Tom Wilhelmsen R 2015 · 3.07 FIP	31	SU	3.07	22.5%	9.7%	1.1%	.298	5.78	13.8%	4.1%	86	+2.71	3.07	148	77
Cory Gearrin R 2015 · 3.52 FIP	29	SU	3.52	22.1%	7.5%	2.5%	.283	3.54	22.2%	13.6%	174	+0.02	3.15	272	77
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	76
J.J. Hoover R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	27.4%	12.7%	3.5%	.360	6.40	17.2%	8.0%	96	+2.08	4.22	258	76