Sam Gardner
P
Biloxi Shuckers
+0.3
WAR
Age 29
RHP
6'1" / 205 lbs
AA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.18
FIP4.18
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%24.5%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%14.8%
IP31
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
K†6060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 26 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 21 | 0 | 45 | 191 | 59 | 25 | 3 | 23.8% | 15.1% | 1.9% | 2.22 | 4.03 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 27 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 24 | 0 | 37 | 137 | 53 | 12 | 1 | 30.1% | 10.2% | 0.8% | 2.19 | 2.26 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 31 | — | 31 | 131 | 32 | 13 | 4 | 24.5% | 9.7% | 2.8% | 4.18 | 4.18 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 30 | — | 30 | 127 | 31 | 12 | 4 | 24.1% | 9.7% | 2.9% | 4.23 | 4.26 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 29 | — | 29 | 122 | 29 | 12 | 4 | 23.9% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 4.29 | 4.33 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 45 | 0 | 82 | 328 | 87 | 43 | 5 | 26.4% | 13.0% | 1.4% | 2.20 | 3.30 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 110 | 0 | 200 | 803 | 213 | 105 | 12 | 26.4% | 13.0% | 1.4% | 2.20 | 3.30 | +4.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Sam Gardner (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.18 | 24.5% | 9.7% | 2.8% | — | 4.29 | 24.0% | 14.2% | 59 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| Cody Hall R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.95 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 3.4% | .299 | 3.92 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 19 | -0.03 | 3.51 | 134 | 86 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | .241 | 3.99 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.34 | 3.47 | 149 | 84 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.75 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 3.12 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.63 | 2.31 | 187 | 84 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.47 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.57 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.10 | 2.59 | 137 | 84 |
| David Hernandez R 2027 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 84 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 82 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.52 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .283 | 3.61 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | +0.09 | 3.17 | 272 | 82 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 3.05 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.05 | 24.4% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .329 | 3.89 | 19.8% | 9.8% | 129 | +0.84 | 3.05 | 227 | 82 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 81 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.03 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 2.9% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.65 | 2.38 | 160 | 81 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 160 | 80 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2029 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 80 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.10 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 253 | 80 |
| Michael Dimock R 2025 · 3.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.39 | 23.5% | 10.7% | 1.7% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 166 | 79 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2028 · 3.38 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.38 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.98 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.60 | 3.38 | 212 | 79 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2028 · 3.11 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.11 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .298 | 5.81 | 13.8% | 4.1% | 86 | +2.70 | 3.11 | 148 | 79 |
| Grant Sides R 2027 · 3.31 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.31 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 1.5% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.31 | 159 | 78 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.56 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.23 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.33 | 2.83 | 228 | 78 |
| Stephen Fife R 2026 · 3.10 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.10 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 1.0% | .329 | 3.65 | 14.1% | 8.3% | 152 | +0.55 | 3.10 | 179 | 78 |
| J.J. Hoover R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.26 | 27.4% | 12.7% | 3.4% | .360 | 6.40 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 96 | +2.14 | 4.26 | 258 | 78 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.