Sam Gardner
P Buffalo Bisons| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | G | GS | IP | ERA | FIP | K% | BB% | WAR | MLE rates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 26 | A+MIL | 21 | 0 | 45 | 2.22 | 3.01 | 30.9% | 13.1% | — | K 23.8% · BB 15.1% · FIP 4.04 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX2 levels | 24 | 0 | 37 | 2.19 | 1.56 | 38.7% | 8.8% | — | K 30.1% · BB 10.2% · FIP 2.28 |
| 2026 | 29 | MIX2 levels | 31 | 0 | 41 | 6.31 | 3.63 | 28.2% | 11.2% | — | K 23.8% · BB 10.3% · FIP 4.03 |
| 2027PROJ | 30 | MLBTOR | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4.37 | 4.37 | 23.9% | 10.1% | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ37% MLB | 31 | MLBTOR | 7 | 0 | 7 | 4.49 | 4.57 | 23.4% | 10.3% | -0.0 |
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 26 | A+ MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 21 | 0 | 45 | 191 | 59 | 25 | 3 | 0% | 2.1 | 23.8% | 15.1% | 8.7% | 1.9% | 2.22 | 4.04 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | A+ RAW | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 21 | 0 | 45 | 191 | 59 | 25 | 3 | 0% | 2.1 | 30.9% | 13.1% | 17.8% | 1.6% | 2.22 | 3.01 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 24 | 0 | 37 | 137 | 53 | 12 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 30.1% | 10.2% | 19.9% | 0.8% | 2.19 | 2.28 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 24 | 0 | 37 | 137 | 53 | 12 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 30.1% | 10.2% | 19.9% | 0.8% | 2.19 | 2.28 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 24 | 0 | 37 | 137 | 53 | 12 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 38.7% | 8.8% | 29.9% | 0.7% | 2.19 | 1.56 | — |
| 2026 | 29 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 31 | 0 | 41 | 188 | 53 | 21 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.8% | 10.3% | 13.5% | 3.0% | 6.31 | 4.03 | — |
| 2026 | 29 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 31 | 0 | 41 | 188 | 53 | 21 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.8% | 10.3% | 13.5% | 3.0% | 6.31 | 4.03 | — |
| 2026 | 29 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 31 | 0 | 41 | 188 | 53 | 21 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 28.2% | 11.2% | 17.0% | 2.7% | 6.31 | 3.63 | — |
| ▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | TOR | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.9% | 10.1% | 13.8% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.37 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 31 | MLB MLE | TOR | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 10.3% | 13.1% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB CTX | TOR | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 10.3% | 13.1% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | RAW | 7 | 0 | 7 | 31 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 10.3% | 13.1% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.19 | +0.0 | |
| / 200 IP | — | RAW | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 191 | 82 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 10.3% | 13.1% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.19 | +0.9 | |
| Career | — | MLE | 76 | 0 | 123 | 516 | 131 | 62 | 10 | 0% | 1.6 | 25.5% | 12.0% | 13.4% | 2.0% | 3.59 | 3.57 | -0.0 | |
| / 200 IP | — | MLE | 124 | 0 | 200 | 839 | 214 | 101 | 17 | 0% | 1.6 | 25.5% | 12.0% | 13.4% | 2.0% | 3.59 | 3.57 | -0.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAABuffalo Bisons · 29 IPFIP 4.34 → 4.63 (+0.30)K% 26.3% → 22.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 26.32% | — | ×0.860 | 22.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 14.29% | — | ×0.900 | 12.86% |
| HR / BF /BF | 3.01% | ÷1.000 | ×1.100 | 3.31% |
Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).
Result: FIP 4.34 → 4.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 13 IPFIP 1.79 → 2.57 (+0.77)K% 32.7% → 26.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 32.73% | — | ×0.810 | 26.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 3.64% | — | ×1.100 | 4.00% |
| HR / BF /BF | 1.82% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | 2.18% |
Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).
Result: FIP 1.79 → 2.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AABiloxi Shuckers · 35 IPFIP 1.56 → 2.28 (+0.72)K% 37.2% → 30.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 37.21% | — | ×0.810 | 30.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 9.30% | — | ×1.100 | 10.23% |
| HR / BF /BF | 0.78% | ÷1.198 | ×1.200 | 0.78% |
Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 140).
Result: FIP 1.56 → 2.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 45 IPFIP 3.01 → 4.04 (+1.03)K% 30.9% → 23.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 30.89% | — | ×0.770 | 23.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 13.09% | — | ×1.150 | 15.05% |
| HR / BF /BF | 1.57% | ÷1.033 | ×1.250 | 1.90% |
Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).
Result: FIP 3.01 → 4.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).