Jacob Webb — OGILVIE

Jacob Webb P Worcester Red Sox

Age 27 RHP 6'5" / 246 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 28 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.75

FIP4.75

K%19.2%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%9.2%

ROS IP29

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	1	12	51	17	6	0	12%	1.5	33.3%	11.8%	21.6%	0.0%	0.75	1.78	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	1	12	51	17	6	0	12%	1.5	33.3%	11.8%	21.6%	0.0%	0.75	1.77	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	44	0	57	251	88	26	4	0%	1.3	26.7%	12.8%	13.9%	1.6%	3.18	3.33	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	44	0	57	251	88	26	4	0%	1.3	35.1%	10.4%	24.7%	1.6%	3.18	2.29	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	41	0	59	266	65	37	5	0%	1.4	19.8%	15.3%	4.5%	2.2%	5.03	4.55	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	41	0	59	266	65	37	5	0%	1.4	19.8%	15.3%	4.5%	2.2%	5.03	4.55	—
2023	24	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	41	0	59	266	65	37	5	0%	1.4	24.4%	13.9%	10.5%	1.9%	5.03	3.88	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	7	84	374	81	29	11	17%	2.0	17.8%	8.2%	9.6%	3.7%	4.95	4.66	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	7	84	374	81	29	11	17%	2.0	17.8%	8.2%	9.6%	3.7%	4.95	4.66	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	7	84	374	81	29	11	17%	2.0	21.7%	7.8%	13.9%	2.9%	4.95	3.91	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	0	40	179	46	20	3	0%	1.6	19.8%	10.8%	9.0%	2.3%	3.57	4.07	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	0	40	179	46	20	3	0%	1.6	19.8%	10.8%	9.0%	2.3%	3.57	4.07	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	0	40	179	46	20	3	0%	1.6	25.7%	11.2%	14.5%	1.7%	3.57	3.27	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	30	1	44	220	53	33	5	3%	1.5	19.8%	14.7%	5.1%	2.6%	6.90	4.71	—
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	30	1	44	220	53	33	5	3%	1.5	19.8%	14.7%	5.1%	2.6%	6.90	4.71	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AA RAW	BOS	14	0	16	82	20	13	2	0%	1.1	24.4%	15.9%	8.5%	2.4%	7.88	4.39	—
2026	27	AAA RAW	BOS	16	1	28	138	33	20	3	6%	1.8	23.9%	14.5%	9.4%	2.2%	6.35	4.11	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	BOS	26	0	28	117	23	12	4	0%	1.1	19.5%	10.0%	9.5%	3.1%	4.76	4.79	-0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	BOS	11	0	12	51	10	5	2	0%	1.1	19.5%	10.0%	9.5%	3.1%	4.76	4.79	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	12	50	10	5	2	0%	1.1	19.5%	10.0%	9.5%	3.1%	4.76	4.41	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	169	85	34	0%	1.1	19.5%	10.0%	9.5%	3.1%	4.76	4.41	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		189	9	296	1341	282	161	33	5%	1.6	21.1%	12.0%	9.1%	2.5%	4.56	4.21	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		128	6	200	906	191	109	23	5%	1.6	21.1%	12.0%	9.1%	2.5%	4.56	4.21	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jacob Webb (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.75	19.2%	10.0%	3.0%	—	4.79	19.5%	9.5%	28	+0.04	—	—	—
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	86
Rob Scahill R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	28	SU	3.91	16.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.288	3.34	17.9%	10.1%	171	-0.57	3.06	201	86
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	86
Michael Dimock R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	27	SU	4.12	18.9%	7.8%	2.9%	.339	3.37	23.5%	12.8%	29	-0.75	3.08	166	85
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	85
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	84
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	83
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	83
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	83
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	83
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	83
Jonathan Hughes R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	17.1%	9.2%	2.7%	.283	3.54	17.1%	4.9%	50	-0.77	3.44	219	82
Guido Knudson R 2016 · 4.69 FIP	26	SU	4.69	17.5%	10.8%	3.1%	.235	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	106	82
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	82
Ryan Doolittle R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	27	SU	4.03	15.1%	6.7%	2.5%	.315	4.38	13.9%	6.8%	44	+0.35	4.03	101	82
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	82
Adrian Ramirez R 2015 · 3.59 FIP	27	SU	3.59	17.4%	10.0%	1.3%	.317	3.04	17.5%	13.1%	49	-0.55	3.04	137	81
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	81
Michael Blazek R 2016 · 4.92 FIP	27	SU	4.92	17.9%	11.9%	3.3%	.336	4.43	17.5%	8.0%	124	-0.49	2.99	221	81
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	28	19.3%	10.0%	1.17	4.75
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86