Erick Reynoso

P Visalia Rawhide

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 185 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	AARI	21	16	76	4.40	5.32	20.2%	17.2%	—	K 14.9% · BB 20.3% · FIP 6.06
2026	23	AARI	24	1	31	4.88	5.08	23.1%	23.8%	—	K 17.1% · BB 28.1% · FIP 6.21
2027PROJ	24	MLBARI	—	—	0	6.37	6.37	14.9%	20.0%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBARI	20	0	21	6.03	5.93	16.5%	17.7%	-0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBARI	27	0	28	5.83	5.78	17.4%	17.0%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control20Command20

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsTed Stuka (age 24) · Drew Conover (age 23) · Wirkin Estevez (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 154146vR 138

ERA6.37

FIP6.37

K%14.9%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%-5.1%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL2020

CMD2020

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	20	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs Red	12	7	34	159	25	26	3	58%	2.8	10.7%	20.4%	-9.7%	2.9%	6.95	6.37	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs Red	12	7	34	159	25	26	3	58%	2.8	15.7%	16.4%	-0.6%	1.9%	6.95	5.09	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	11	7	39	177	34	32	5	64%	3.6	13.1%	22.6%	-9.5%	4.5%	5.03	7.34	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	11	7	39	177	34	32	5	64%	3.6	13.1%	22.6%	-9.5%	4.5%	5.03	7.34	—
2024	21	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	11	7	39	177	34	32	5	64%	3.6	19.2%	18.1%	1.1%	2.8%	5.03	5.46	—
2025	22	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	21	16	76	337	68	58	10	76%	3.6	14.9%	20.3%	-5.4%	3.0%	4.40	6.06	—
2025	22	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	21	16	76	337	68	58	10	76%	3.6	14.9%	20.3%	-5.4%	3.0%	4.40	6.06	—
2025	22	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	21	16	76	337	68	58	10	76%	3.6	20.2%	17.2%	3.0%	3.0%	4.40	5.32	—
2026	23	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	24	1	31	143	33	34	2	4%	1.3	17.1%	28.1%	-11.0%	1.8%	4.88	6.21	—
2026	23	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	24	1	31	143	33	34	2	4%	1.3	17.1%	28.1%	-11.0%	1.8%	4.88	6.21	—
2026	23	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	24	1	31	143	33	34	2	4%	1.3	23.1%	23.8%	-0.7%	1.4%	4.88	5.08	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	ARI	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	14.9%	20.0%	-5.1%	2.9%	6.37	6.37	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	ARI	46	0	48	204	34	36	6	0%	1.1	16.5%	17.7%	-1.2%	2.9%	6.03	5.93	-0.7
2029	26	MLB MLE	ARI	40	0	42	176	31	30	5	0%	1.0	17.4%	17.0%	0.4%	2.9%	5.83	5.78	-0.6
2030	27	MLB MLE	ARI	37	0	39	163	29	27	5	0%	1.0	17.7%	16.7%	1.0%	3.0%	5.75	5.74	-0.5
2031	28	MLB MLE	ARI	35	0	36	154	27	26	5	0%	1.0	17.7%	16.7%	1.0%	3.1%	5.76	5.79	-0.5
2032	29	MLB MLE	ARI	33	0	34	145	25	25	5	0%	1.0	17.5%	16.9%	0.6%	3.2%	5.86	5.92	-0.5
2028	25	MLB CTX	ARI	20	0	21	89	15	16	3	0%	1.1	16.5%	17.7%	-1.2%	2.9%	6.03	5.93	-0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	ARI	27	0	28	118	21	20	3	0%	1.0	17.4%	17.0%	0.4%	2.9%	5.83	5.78	-0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	ARI	29	0	30	127	22	21	4	0%	1.0	17.7%	16.7%	1.0%	3.0%	5.75	5.74	-0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	ARI	30	0	31	131	23	22	4	0%	1.0	17.7%	16.7%	1.0%	3.1%	5.76	5.79	-0.4
2032	29	MLB CTX	ARI	29	0	30	127	22	21	4	0%	1.0	17.5%	16.9%	0.6%	3.2%	5.86	5.92	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		132	0	139	586	102	99	18	0%	1.1	17.4%	17.0%	0.4%	3.0%	5.83	5.45	-1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	147	143	26	0%	1.1	17.4%	17.0%	0.4%	3.0%	5.83	5.45	-2.1
Career	—	MLE		68	31	180	816	115	181	25	46%	2.6	14.1%	22.2%	-8.1%	3.1%	5.10	6.42	-2.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		76	34	200	907	128	201	28	46%	2.6	14.1%	22.2%	-8.1%	3.1%	5.10	6.42	-2.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AVisalia Rawhide · 31 IPFIP 4.93 → 6.21 (+1.28)K% 23.1% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.08%	—	×0.740	17.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	23.78%	—	×1.180	28.06%
HR / BF /BF	1.40%	÷1.000	×1.300	1.82%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.93 → 6.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AVisalia Rawhide · 76 IPFIP 5.20 → 6.06 (+0.86)K% 20.2% → 14.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.18%	—	×0.740	14.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.21%	—	×1.180	20.31%
HR / BF /BF	2.97%	÷1.283	×1.300	3.01%

Result: FIP 5.20 → 6.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL D-backs · 39 IPFIP 5.32 → 7.34 (+2.02)K% 19.2% → 13.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.21%	—	×0.680	13.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.08%	—	×1.250	22.60%
HR / BF /BF	2.82%	÷0.875	×1.400	4.52%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 75).

Result: FIP 5.32 → 7.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL D-backs Red · 34 IPFIP 4.88 → 6.37 (+1.49)K% 15.7% → 10.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.72%	—	×0.680	10.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.35%	—	×1.250	20.44%
HR / BF /BF	1.89%	÷0.918	×1.400	2.88%

Result: FIP 4.88 → 6.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Erick Reynoso (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.37	14.9%	20.0%	2.9%	—	5.82	17.2%	-0.0%	129	-0.55	—	—	—
Ted Stuka R 2021 · 5.72 FIP	24	SW	5.72	12.4%	23.4%	1.3%	.262	6.22	15.9%	-13.1%	41	+0.50	5.36	105	84
Drew Conover R 2024 · 6.25 FIP	23	SW	6.25	15.6%	29.8%	1.3%	.272	5.19	12.6%	-3.4%	106	-1.06	4.49	145	81
Wirkin Estevez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	24	SW	5.39	10.7%	13.4%	2.7%	.316	4.46	12.3%	3.5%	179	-0.93	4.37	238	81
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	78
Blake Hickman R 2018 · 6.57 FIP	24	SW	6.57	12.9%	17.8%	4.2%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	4.19	156	77
Carlos Polanco R 2017 · 5.71 FIP	23	SU	5.71	13.9%	20.0%	2.3%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	3.70	276	77
Robbie Peto R 2022 · 5.39 FIP	24	SU	5.39	15.6%	19.4%	2.1%	.242	5.75	15.3%	1.9%	80	+0.36	5.39	232	77
Pedro Garcia R 2018 · 6.06 FIP	23	SW	6.06	12.6%	24.0%	1.8%	.242	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	144	77
Tom Reisinger R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	23	SW	5.44	12.1%	14.6%	2.8%	.381	6.49	10.3%	-5.6%	47	+1.05	5.44	110	76
Alex Makarewich R 2024 · 6.15 FIP	22	SP-	6.15	19.7%	26.7%	2.4%	.425	5.15	26.4%	-3.3%	83	-1.00	4.26	110	75
Elian Rodriguez R 2021 · 5.60 FIP	24	SW	5.60	18.3%	21.9%	2.3%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	5.60	109	74
Orlando Gonzalez R 2024 · 6.34 FIP	21	SP-	6.34	13.8%	18.8%	3.7%	.155	4.18	18.9%	4.9%	71	-2.16	3.83	114	74
Dylan Spacke R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	24	SU	5.24	16.1%	13.9%	3.2%	.297	4.79	13.6%	0.2%	52	-0.45	2.08	205	74
Cooper Adams R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SW	5.42	13.0%	12.2%	3.4%	.275	4.32	21.7%	10.4%	141	-1.10	3.05	221	74
Matt Merrill R 2022 · 6.06 FIP	24	SW	6.06	20.4%	22.4%	3.4%	.314	3.92	25.4%	7.0%	108	-2.14	3.14	205	73
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	73
Drake Fellows R 2023 · 5.66 FIP	25	SW	5.66	17.1%	20.4%	2.6%	.367	4.88	14.6%	5.6%	271	-0.78	4.28	282	73
Ruben Castillo R 2024 · 5.40 FIP	23	SW	5.40	15.0%	15.5%	2.9%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.33	140	72
Tyler Brashears R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	23	SW	5.47	12.1%	13.0%	3.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	156	72
Kane Davis R 2000 · 7.22 FIP	25	SW	7.22	4.7%	15.3%	4.7%	.359	4.70	18.8%	8.9%	82	-2.52	3.40	125	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	43	16.8%	17.7%	1.16	5.97
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*