Matt Merrill
P
Erie SeaWolves
Age 28
RHP
6'4" / 202 lbs
AA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 18 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123114vR 105
ERA4.59
FIP4.59
K%23.7%
BB%13.0%
K-BB%10.6%
ROS IP18
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 19 | ROK | GCL Astros | 6 | 2 | 9 | 51 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 33% | 1.6 | 8.0% | 17.2% | -9.2% | 2.7% | 11.57 | 6.10 | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK | GCL Astros | 6 | 2 | 9 | 51 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 33% | 1.6 | 11.8% | 13.7% | -2.0% | 2.0% | 11.57 | 5.46 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 18 | 7 | 46 | 207 | 71 | 22 | 2 | 39% | 2.6 | 25.4% | 12.5% | 12.8% | 1.0% | 4.66 | 3.07 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 18 | 7 | 46 | 207 | 71 | 22 | 2 | 39% | 2.6 | 34.3% | 10.6% | 23.7% | 1.0% | 4.66 | 2.02 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 20 | 7 | 41 | 200 | 53 | 39 | 6 | 35% | 2.0 | 20.4% | 22.4% | -2.0% | 3.1% | 6.86 | 5.89 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 20 | 7 | 41 | 200 | 53 | 39 | 6 | 35% | 2.0 | 26.5% | 19.5% | 7.0% | 3.0% | 6.86 | 5.29 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 0 | 37 | 167 | 59 | 20 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 26.5% | 14.0% | 12.5% | 1.9% | 3.86 | 3.66 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 0 | 37 | 167 | 59 | 20 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 35.3% | 12.0% | 23.4% | 1.2% | 3.86 | 2.24 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 36 | 0 | 50 | 209 | 70 | 38 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 25.8% | 20.9% | 4.9% | 0.8% | 1.79 | 3.99 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 36 | 0 | 50 | 209 | 70 | 38 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 33.5% | 18.2% | 15.3% | 0.5% | 1.79 | 2.84 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 15 | 1 | 21 | 86 | 24 | 16 | 1 | 7% | 1.4 | 22.6% | 20.5% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 3.48 | 4.47 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 15 | 1 | 21 | 86 | 24 | 16 | 1 | 7% | 1.4 | 27.9% | 18.6% | 9.3% | 1.2% | 3.48 | 3.73 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | DET | 18 | 0 | 18 | 78 | 18 | 10 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.7% | 13.0% | 10.6% | 2.7% | 4.59 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | DET | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 12.9% | 10.5% | 2.8% | 4.64 | 4.69 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | DET | 6 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 12.9% | 10.5% | 2.8% | 4.64 | 4.69 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 6 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 12.9% | 10.5% | 2.8% | 4.64 | 4.31 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 192 | 96 | 32 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 12.9% | 10.5% | 2.8% | 4.64 | 4.31 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 120 | 17 | 205 | 920 | 215 | 164 | 15 | 14% | 1.7 | 23.4% | 17.9% | 5.5% | 1.7% | 4.44 | 4.30 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 117 | 17 | 200 | 899 | 210 | 161 | 15 | 14% | 1.7 | 23.4% | 17.9% | 5.5% | 1.7% | 4.44 | 4.30 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Merrill (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.59 | 23.7% | 13.0% | 2.7% | — | 4.69 | 23.4% | 10.5% | 20 | +0.10 | — | — | — |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 82 |
| Javy Guerra R 2028 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 79 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2028 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 79 |
| Daniel Robert R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.60 | 23.3% | 12.5% | 1.6% | .310 | 3.16 | 25.8% | 16.6% | 87 | -0.44 | 2.16 | 186 | 79 |
| Joe Colón J R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 79 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2028 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 79 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.96 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .275 | 7.33 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +2.37 | 3.78 | 180 | 78 |
| Ronald Peña R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.51 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .355 | 4.54 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | +0.03 | 3.57 | 187 | 77 |
| Grant Sides R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.89 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.1% | .247 | 3.24 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 47 | -0.65 | 3.24 | 159 | 77 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.63 | 23.3% | 13.6% | 3.2% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 315 | 77 |
| Peyton Gray R 2024 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.31 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | 138 | 77 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.87 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .276 | 2.42 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 34 | -1.45 | 2.42 | 125 | 77 |
| Luis Mateo R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.33 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .309 | 5.34 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +1.01 | 3.43 | 160 | 76 |
| Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.83 | 22.7% | 14.1% | 3.4% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.87 | 232 | 76 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.18 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.40 | 2.76 | 228 | 76 |
| Cole McDonald R 2025 · 5.38 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.38 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 4.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 153 | 76 |
| Michael Ynoa R 2025 · 4.64 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.64 | 23.1% | 13.8% | 3.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 142 | 76 |
| Jeff Ames R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.45 | 25.6% | 16.8% | 2.5% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 272 | 75 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2027 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 75 |
| José Cisnero R 2025 · 4.40 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.40 | 26.1% | 11.7% | 3.7% | .367 | 4.02 | 24.5% | 13.3% | 75 | -0.38 | 2.28 | 279 | 75 |