Matt Merrill
P
Erie SeaWolves
+0.1
WAR
Age 28
RHP
6'4" / 202 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.59
FIP4.59
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.7%
BB%13.0%
K-BB%10.6%
IP26
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 19 | ROK | GCL Astros | 6 | 2 | 9 | 51 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 8.0% | 17.2% | 2.7% | 11.57 | 6.10 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 23 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 18 | 7 | 46 | 207 | 71 | 22 | 2 | 25.4% | 12.5% | 1.0% | 4.66 | 3.12 | +1.0 |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 20 | 7 | 41 | 200 | 53 | 39 | 6 | 20.4% | 22.4% | 3.3% | 6.86 | 6.02 | -0.5 |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 25 | 0 | 37 | 167 | 59 | 20 | 2 | 26.5% | 14.0% | 1.7% | 3.86 | 3.56 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 26 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 36 | 0 | 50 | 209 | 70 | 38 | 1 | 25.8% | 20.9% | 0.7% | 1.79 | 3.95 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 15 | 1 | 21 | 86 | 24 | 16 | 1 | 22.6% | 20.5% | 1.3% | 3.48 | 4.50 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | DET | 26 | — | 26 | 111 | 26 | 14 | 3 | 23.7% | 13.0% | 2.7% | 4.59 | 4.59 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | DET | 26 | — | 26 | 109 | 26 | 14 | 3 | 23.5% | 12.7% | 2.7% | 4.59 | 4.61 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 120 | 17 | 205 | 920 | 215 | 164 | 16 | 23.4% | 17.9% | 1.7% | 4.44 | 4.31 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 117 | 17 | 200 | 899 | 210 | 160 | 16 | 23.4% | 17.9% | 1.7% | 4.44 | 4.31 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Merrill (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.59 | 23.7% | 13.0% | 2.7% | — | 4.61 | 23.5% | 10.8% | 26 | +0.02 | — | — | — |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.1% | .265 | 3.87 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.98 | 3.45 | 315 | 85 |
| Joe Colón J R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 83 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2028 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 82 |
| Cole McDonald R 2025 · 5.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.16 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 3.8% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.84 | 153 | 82 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.51 | 23.3% | 13.6% | 3.0% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.65 | 315 | 81 |
| Michael Dimock R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.39 | 23.5% | 10.7% | 1.7% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 166 | 81 |
| Ronald Peña R 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.9% | .355 | 4.49 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | -0.08 | 3.70 | 187 | 81 |
| Peyton Gray R 2024 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.26 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 104 | 80 |
| Daniel Robert R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.63 | 23.3% | 12.5% | 1.7% | .310 | 3.09 | 25.8% | 16.6% | 87 | -0.54 | 2.28 | 186 | 80 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.76 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.0% | .276 | 2.42 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 34 | -1.34 | 2.42 | 125 | 80 |
| Javy Guerra R 2028 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .303 | 3.87 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.43 | 3.01 | 260 | 80 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2024 · 4.41 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.41 | 21.8% | 14.5% | 2.4% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 154 | 79 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2028 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.72 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.6% | .287 | 3.88 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 129 | 79 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.47 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.57 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.10 | 2.59 | 137 | 79 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.56 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.23 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.33 | 2.83 | 228 | 79 |
| José Cisnero R 2025 · 4.50 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.50 | 26.1% | 11.7% | 3.9% | .367 | 3.92 | 24.5% | 13.3% | 75 | -0.58 | 2.26 | 279 | 79 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.82 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .275 | 6.70 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +1.88 | 3.88 | 180 | 79 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2024 · 3.76 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.76 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 117 | 79 |
| Michael Ynoa R 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.68 | 23.1% | 13.8% | 3.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 142 | 78 |
| Grant Sides R 2025 · 3.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.83 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.0% | .247 | 3.31 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 47 | -0.52 | 3.31 | 159 | 78 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.