Matt Merrill — OGILVIE

Matt Merrill P Erie SeaWolves

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 202 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132123vR 115

ERA5.18

FIP5.18

K%24.0%

BB%17.9%

K-BB%6.1%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	19	ROK MLE	GCL Astros	6	2	9	51	6	7	1	33%	1.6	8.0%	17.2%	-9.2%	2.7%	11.57	6.10	—
2017	19	ROK RAW	GCL Astros	6	2	9	51	6	7	1	33%	1.6	11.8%	13.7%	-2.0%	2.0%	11.57	5.46	—
2021	23	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	18	7	46	207	71	22	2	39%	2.6	25.4%	12.5%	12.8%	1.1%	4.66	3.14	—
2021	23	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	18	7	46	207	71	22	2	39%	2.6	34.3%	10.6%	23.7%	1.0%	4.66	2.02	—
2022	24	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	20	7	41	200	53	39	6	35%	2.0	20.4%	22.4%	-2.0%	3.4%	6.86	6.06	—
2022	24	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	20	7	41	200	53	39	6	35%	2.0	26.5%	19.5%	7.0%	3.0%	6.86	5.29	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	0	37	167	59	20	2	0%	1.5	26.5%	14.0%	12.5%	1.7%	3.86	3.57	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	0	37	167	59	20	2	0%	1.5	26.5%	14.0%	12.5%	1.7%	3.86	3.57	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	0	37	167	59	20	2	0%	1.5	35.3%	12.0%	23.4%	1.2%	3.86	2.24	—
2024	26	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	36	0	50	209	70	38	1	0%	1.4	25.8%	20.9%	4.9%	0.7%	1.79	3.94	—
2024	26	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	36	0	50	209	70	38	1	0%	1.4	25.8%	20.9%	4.9%	0.7%	1.79	3.94	—
2024	26	A+ RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	36	0	50	209	70	38	1	0%	1.4	33.5%	18.2%	15.3%	0.5%	1.79	2.84	—
2025	27	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	15	1	21	86	24	16	1	7%	1.4	22.6%	20.5%	2.1%	1.3%	3.48	4.51	—
2025	27	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	15	1	21	86	24	16	1	7%	1.4	22.6%	20.5%	2.1%	1.3%	3.48	4.51	—
2025	27	AA RAW	Erie SeaWolves	15	1	21	86	24	16	1	7%	1.4	27.9%	18.6%	9.3%	1.2%	3.48	3.73	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	DET	2	0	2	8	2	2	0	0%	1.0	24.0%	17.9%	6.1%	2.7%	5.18	5.18	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	DET	19	0	20	84	20	15	2	0%	1.1	23.7%	17.3%	6.4%	2.8%	5.17	5.23	-0.2
2027	29	MLB CTX	DET	6	0	6	25	6	4	1	0%	1.0	23.7%	17.3%	6.4%	2.8%	5.17	5.23	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	6	5	1	0%	1.0	23.7%	17.3%	6.4%	2.8%	5.17	4.85	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	192	160	32	0%	1.1	23.7%	17.3%	6.4%	2.8%	5.17	4.85	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		120	17	205	920	215	164	16	14%	1.7	23.4%	17.9%	5.5%	1.7%	4.44	4.33	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		117	17	200	899	210	161	15	14%	1.7	23.4%	17.9%	5.5%	1.7%	4.44	4.33	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Merrill (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.18	24.0%	17.9%	2.7%	—	5.23	23.7%	6.4%	20	+0.05	—	—	—
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	80
Jeff Ames R 2019 · 4.45 FIP	28	SU	4.45	25.6%	16.8%	2.5%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	272	78
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	77
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	76
Stevie Branche R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	25.6%	19.1%	1.2%	.274	5.73	18.6%	1.0%	28	+1.69	3.23	162	76
José A. Váldez R 2018 · 4.02 FIP	28	SU	4.02	23.1%	16.2%	1.5%	.325	4.21	16.8%	6.2%	103	+0.19	4.02	328	75
Theo Denlinger R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	27	SU	4.21	19.8%	15.1%	1.6%	.266	4.23	15.3%	9.9%	41	+0.02	2.92	140	75
Zack Jones R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	27	SU	5.00	27.7%	24.1%	2.2%	.167	—	—	—	—	—	2.57	109	74
Caleb Simpson R 2019 · 4.02 FIP	27	SU	4.02	24.7%	17.3%	1.5%	.189	4.23	22.4%	9.7%	54	+0.21	3.57	197	74
Chris Perry R 2016 · 4.24 FIP	26	SU	4.24	21.3%	19.3%	0.9%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	113	74
Dario Beltre R 2019 · 4.24 FIP	26	SU	4.24	21.4%	17.0%	1.4%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	2.71	110	73
Kevin Lenik R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	27	SU	4.91	21.7%	14.9%	3.2%	.205	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	107	73
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	28	SU	4.43	23.3%	13.6%	2.9%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	2.64	315	73
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	72
Mitchell Stumpo R 2023 · 6.35 FIP	27	SU	6.35	20.6%	20.8%	4.3%	.368	4.77	22.6%	15.5%	34	-1.58	3.97	158	72
Gregory Infante R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	28	SU	4.54	16.9%	15.7%	1.6%	.290	3.78	21.3%	12.7%	181	-0.76	2.97	230	72
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	159	72
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	72
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	71
Michael Ynoa R 2019 · 4.68 FIP	27	SU	4.68	23.1%	13.8%	3.3%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	142	71