Alex Makarewich — OGILVIE

Alex Makarewich P Great Lakes Loons

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 185 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 22 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 146138vR 130

ERA5.94

FIP5.94

K%24.9%

BB%24.8%

K-BB%0.1%

ROS IP23

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	10	32	174	45	37	4	59%	1.9	19.7%	26.7%	-7.0%	2.4%	9.28	6.15	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	10	32	174	45	37	4	59%	1.9	19.7%	26.7%	-7.0%	2.4%	9.28	6.15	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	10	32	174	45	37	4	59%	1.9	25.9%	21.3%	4.6%	2.3%	9.28	5.38	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	44	204	75	49	0	0%	1.1	27.9%	27.7%	0.2%	0.0%	3.07	4.26	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	44	204	75	49	0	0%	1.1	27.9%	27.7%	0.2%	0.0%	3.07	4.26	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	44	204	75	49	0	0%	1.1	36.8%	24.0%	12.7%	0.0%	3.07	3.03	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	34	0	39	187	60	52	3	0%	1.1	24.7%	32.0%	-7.3%	2.0%	4.89	6.17	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	34	0	39	187	60	52	3	0%	1.1	24.7%	32.0%	-7.3%	2.0%	4.89	6.17	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	LAD	34	0	39	187	60	52	3	0%	1.1	32.1%	27.8%	4.3%	1.6%	4.89	4.79	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	LAD	38	0	40	169	43	35	4	0%	1.1	25.1%	20.5%	4.7%	2.6%	5.54	5.38	-0.4
2027	25	MLB CTX	LAD	16	0	17	72	18	15	2	0%	1.1	25.1%	20.5%	4.7%	2.6%	5.54	5.38	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		16	0	17	73	18	15	2	0%	1.1	25.1%	20.5%	4.7%	2.6%	5.54	5.00	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	209	174	23	0%	1.1	25.1%	20.5%	4.7%	2.6%	5.54	5.00	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		92	10	115	565	137	163	8	11%	1.2	24.3%	28.8%	-4.5%	1.4%	5.42	5.47	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		160	17	200	985	240	284	14	11%	1.2	24.3%	28.8%	-4.5%	1.4%	5.42	5.47	-1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex Makarewich (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.94	24.9%	24.8%	2.6%	—	5.38	25.1%	4.7%	40	-0.56	—	—	—
Ryan Sublette R 2023 · 5.72 FIP	24	SU	5.72	21.4%	22.3%	2.9%	.278	5.09	18.9%	3.4%	102	-0.63	3.74	203	86
Andrew Baker R 2023 · 5.99 FIP	23	SU	5.99	24.7%	25.1%	3.3%	.315	3.65	25.3%	12.2%	161	-2.34	3.44	256	85
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	80
Taylor Floyd R 2022 · 4.84 FIP	24	SU	4.84	19.6%	18.4%	1.9%	.305	4.30	19.8%	10.2%	184	-0.54	3.48	359	80
Andrew McInvale R 2021 · 4.92 FIP	24	SU	4.92	26.4%	16.3%	3.6%	.278	5.66	20.3%	5.0%	58	+0.74	4.92	103	80
Will McAffer R 2021 · 6.40 FIP	24	SU	6.40	21.5%	24.2%	3.7%	.343	5.37	14.5%	-5.7%	33	-1.03	4.68	133	80
Luis Mora R 2019 · 5.27 FIP	24	SU	5.27	23.9%	22.7%	2.4%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	119	79
Yoel Espinal R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	21.4%	23.1%	2.1%	.255	4.24	22.9%	10.0%	99	-1.13	3.86	231	79
Tommy DeJuneas R 2019 · 5.15 FIP	23	SU	5.15	20.8%	18.8%	2.6%	.324	5.65	13.7%	-3.9%	51	+0.50	3.93	178	79
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.80	21.5%	10.0%	115	-0.58	4.73	183	79
Colin McKee R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	24	SU	5.00	24.2%	14.7%	3.8%	.330	4.35	27.7%	12.9%	97	-0.65	4.18	148	78
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	78
Yunior Montero R 2017 · 5.21 FIP	24	SU	5.21	21.3%	17.6%	3.1%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	127	77
Spencer Mraz R 2022 · 5.62 FIP	24	SU	5.62	21.5%	18.4%	3.6%	.295	4.68	15.1%	-4.2%	35	-0.94	3.61	155	77
Sal Biasi R 2019 · 5.22 FIP	23	SU	5.22	20.1%	15.8%	3.3%	.295	7.66	15.3%	-0.2%	23	+2.44	4.68	188	77
John McMillon R 2022 · 5.92 FIP	24	SU	5.92	22.8%	30.7%	1.6%	.246	4.70	26.1%	11.5%	108	-1.22	2.28	152	76
Indigo Diaz R 2023 · 5.05 FIP	24	SU	5.05	23.7%	16.2%	3.5%	.355	4.99	16.6%	3.8%	76	-0.06	1.70	202	76
Kasey Ford R 2022 · 5.12 FIP	24	SU	5.12	21.3%	14.7%	3.6%	.302	3.83	22.2%	5.5%	65	-1.29	2.53	114	76
Alec Hansen R 2019 · 5.74 FIP	24	SU	5.74	18.8%	19.8%	3.1%	.349	4.98	29.5%	-5.0%	22	-0.76	3.34	288	76
Jacob Morris R 2015 · 5.43 FIP	24	SU	5.43	18.0%	19.6%	2.5%	.218	4.77	18.7%	-2.4%	46	-0.66	4.77	102	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	31	25.0%	22.0%	1.01	5.68
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91