LJ McDonough — OGILVIE

LJ McDonough P Columbus Clingstones

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 26 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.98

FIP4.98

K%19.8%

BB%13.1%

K-BB%6.7%

ROS IP26

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	0	7	39	8	5	0	0%	1.2	20.5%	12.8%	7.7%	0.0%	4.91	2.99	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	0	7	39	8	5	0	0%	1.2	20.5%	12.8%	7.7%	0.0%	4.91	2.99	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	0	7	39	8	5	0	0%	1.2	20.5%	12.8%	7.7%	0.0%	4.91	2.96	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	47	215	66	33	3	0%	1.4	22.6%	16.7%	6.0%	2.3%	4.21	4.54	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	47	215	66	33	3	0%	1.4	22.6%	16.7%	6.0%	2.3%	4.21	4.54	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	47	215	66	33	3	0%	1.4	30.7%	15.3%	15.3%	1.4%	4.21	3.23	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	47	220	51	25	3	0%	1.2	18.5%	12.6%	5.8%	1.9%	4.60	4.16	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	47	220	51	25	3	0%	1.2	18.5%	12.6%	5.8%	1.9%	4.60	4.16	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	47	220	51	25	3	0%	1.2	23.2%	11.4%	11.8%	1.4%	4.60	3.36	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AA MLE	Columbus Clingstones	35	0	43	218	58	44	5	0%	1.2	21.6%	22.2%	-0.7%	2.8%	7.59	5.60	—
YTD	26	AA MLE	Columbus Clingstones	35	0	43	218	58	44	5	0%	1.2	21.6%	22.2%	-0.7%	2.8%	7.59	5.60	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	ATL	35	0	43	218	58	44	5	0%	1.2	26.6%	20.2%	6.4%	2.3%	7.59	4.67	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	ATL	40	0	42	176	35	23	5	0%	1.0	20.1%	12.8%	7.3%	2.8%	4.93	4.95	-0.2
2027	27	MLB CTX	ATL	15	0	16	68	14	9	2	0%	1.1	20.1%	12.8%	7.3%	2.8%	4.93	4.95	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		15	0	16	66	13	8	2	0%	1.0	20.1%	12.8%	7.3%	2.8%	4.93	4.57	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	166	102	26	0%	1.1	20.1%	12.8%	7.3%	2.8%	4.93	4.57	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		113	0	144	692	144	117	15	0%	1.3	20.8%	16.9%	3.9%	2.2%	5.38	4.67	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		157	0	200	961	200	162	21	0%	1.3	20.8%	16.9%	3.9%	2.2%	5.38	4.67	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
LJ McDonough (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.98	19.8%	13.1%	2.7%	—	4.95	20.1%	7.3%	42	-0.03	—	—	—
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	88
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	88
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	87
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	87
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	86
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	86
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	86
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	86
Matt Wivinis R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	19.5%	12.2%	1.5%	.262	5.95	14.5%	6.2%	17	+2.11	1.61	124	85
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	299	85
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	84
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	84
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	17.2%	9.8%	1.7%	.289	4.21	24.7%	12.1%	62	+0.37	3.84	181	84
Jake Johansen R 2017 · 4.65 FIP	26	SU	4.65	15.9%	12.1%	2.5%	.273	3.65	12.8%	4.9%	48	-1.00	3.65	162	84
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	84
Grant Sides R 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SU	3.96	17.2%	13.2%	1.2%	.266	3.83	22.4%	10.5%	62	-0.13	3.31	159	84
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	84
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	83
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	83
Davison Palermo R 2023 · 4.32 FIP	23	SU	4.32	19.0%	12.4%	2.3%	.246	5.02	18.8%	6.8%	174	+0.70	4.32	218	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	34	20.0%	12.9%	1.08	4.95
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78