Christopher Troye
P
Portland Sea Dogs
+0.0
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'4" / 225 lbs
AA
ERA5.00
FIP5.00
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.9%
BB%14.4%
K-BB%8.5%
IP31
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 4.50 | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A | Salem Red Sox | 26 | 0 | 33 | 143 | 50 | 24 | 0 | 25.9% | 19.8% | 0.0% | 4.86 | 3.42 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 38 | 0 | 49 | 220 | 87 | 36 | 3 | 31.4% | 18.2% | 1.8% | 3.10 | 3.75 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 28 | 0 | 45 | 201 | 60 | 31 | 7 | 24.2% | 17.0% | 4.1% | 4.60 | 5.47 | -0.3 |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 20 | 0 | 30 | 144 | 34 | 30 | 3 | 19.1% | 22.9% | 2.3% | 7.20 | 5.65 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 31 | — | 31 | 131 | 30 | 19 | 4 | 22.9% | 14.4% | 3.0% | 5.00 | 5.00 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 30 | — | 30 | 129 | 29 | 18 | 4 | 22.9% | 14.0% | 3.0% | 4.95 | 4.96 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 30 | — | 30 | 126 | 29 | 17 | 4 | 22.8% | 13.7% | 3.0% | 4.93 | 4.95 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 114 | 0 | 160 | 717 | 187 | 135 | 16 | 26.1% | 18.9% | 2.2% | 4.68 | 4.48 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 143 | 0 | 200 | 898 | 234 | 169 | 20 | 26.1% | 18.9% | 2.2% | 4.68 | 4.48 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Christopher Troye (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.00 | 22.9% | 14.4% | 3.0% | — | 4.96 | 22.9% | 9.0% | 60 | -0.04 | — | — | — |
| Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.1% | .265 | 3.87 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.98 | 3.45 | 315 | 88 |
| Cole McDonald R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.16 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 3.8% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.84 | 153 | 88 |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 86 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2025 · 4.41 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.41 | 21.8% | 14.5% | 2.4% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 154 | 85 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.9% | .355 | 4.49 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | -0.08 | 3.70 | 187 | 84 |
| Jacob Bosiokovic R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.93 | 26.4% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .274 | 4.99 | 22.1% | 8.9% | 69 | +1.06 | 3.83 | 181 | 84 |
| Derek Eitel R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.34 | 18.1% | 13.9% | 1.8% | .338 | 4.29 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 113 | -0.05 | 4.00 | 138 | 83 |
| Michael Ynoa R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.68 | 23.1% | 13.8% | 3.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 142 | 82 |
| Beck Wheeler R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.41 | 24.9% | 14.5% | 2.9% | .360 | 5.38 | 15.3% | 3.1% | 58 | +0.97 | 3.46 | 173 | 82 |
| Jake Haberer R 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.24 | 24.3% | 16.0% | 4.0% | .324 | 5.10 | 16.4% | 0.9% | 62 | -0.14 | 3.46 | 183 | 82 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2029 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 81 |
| Grant Black R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.46 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +1.00 | 4.46 | 215 | 80 |
| Theo Denlinger R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.34 | 20.2% | 16.4% | 1.6% | .266 | 4.24 | 15.3% | 9.9% | 41 | -0.10 | 2.90 | 140 | 80 |
| Preston Johnson R 2024 · 5.12 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.12 | 21.1% | 17.2% | 2.9% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.94 | 104 | 80 |
| Kevin Lenik R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.90 | 21.7% | 14.9% | 3.2% | .205 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | 107 | 80 |
| Nick Ernst R 2024 · 5.04 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.04 | 21.9% | 14.6% | 3.5% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 117 | 80 |
| Peyton Gray R 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.26 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 104 | 80 |
| Michael Blazek R 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.97 | 17.9% | 11.9% | 3.4% | .336 | 4.43 | 17.5% | 8.0% | 124 | -0.54 | 3.06 | 221 | 80 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.00 | 22.2% | 11.4% | 4.2% | .256 | 4.51 | 23.3% | 9.7% | 39 | -0.49 | 2.65 | 315 | 80 |
| Armando Rivero R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.26 | 18.7% | 13.5% | 1.9% | .256 | 2.69 | 32.9% | 19.8% | 68 | -1.57 | 2.69 | 125 | 79 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.