Christopher Troye

P Portland Sea Dogs

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	24	MIX2 levels	38	0	49	3.10	2.55	39.5%	16.4%	—	K 31.4% · BB 18.2% · FIP 3.76
2024	25	AABOS	28	0	45	4.60	4.52	29.9%	15.4%	—	K 24.2% · BB 17.0% · FIP 5.46
2025	26	AABOS	20	0	30	7.20	5.13	23.6%	20.8%	—	K 19.1% · BB 22.9% · FIP 5.61
2026	27	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	28	MLBBOS	—	—	0	5.48	5.48	21.6%	17.3%	—
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBBOS	5	0	5	5.45	5.50	21.6%	16.8%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsSpencer Bivens (age 28) · Tyler Davis (age 25) · Gregory Infante (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 121

ERA5.48

FIP5.48

K%21.6%

BB%17.3%

K-BB%4.3%

Proj IP20

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	2	0	2	9	5	0	0	0%	1.0	55.6%	0.0%	55.6%	0.0%	4.50	-1.59	—
2021	22	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	2	0	2	9	5	0	0	0%	1.0	55.6%	0.0%	55.6%	0.0%	4.50	-1.90	—
2022	23	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	26	0	33	143	50	24	0	0%	1.3	25.9%	19.8%	6.1%	0.0%	4.86	3.42	—
2022	23	A RAW	Salem Red Sox	26	0	33	143	50	24	0	0%	1.3	35.0%	16.8%	18.2%	0.0%	4.86	2.26	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	49	220	87	36	3	0%	1.3	31.4%	18.2%	13.2%	1.8%	3.10	3.76	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	49	220	87	36	3	0%	1.3	39.5%	16.4%	23.2%	1.4%	3.10	2.55	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	28	0	45	201	60	31	7	0%	1.6	24.2%	17.0%	7.2%	4.1%	4.60	5.46	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	28	0	45	201	60	31	7	0%	1.6	24.2%	17.0%	7.2%	4.1%	4.60	5.46	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	28	0	45	201	60	31	7	0%	1.6	29.9%	15.4%	14.4%	3.5%	4.60	4.52	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	20	0	30	144	34	30	3	0%	1.5	19.1%	22.9%	-3.8%	2.2%	7.20	5.61	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	20	0	30	144	34	30	3	0%	1.5	19.1%	22.9%	-3.8%	2.2%	7.20	5.61	—
2025	26	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	20	0	30	144	34	30	3	0%	1.5	23.6%	20.8%	2.8%	2.1%	7.20	5.13	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	BOS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.6%	17.3%	4.3%	3.0%	5.48	5.48	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	BOS	14	0	15	64	14	11	2	0%	1.1	21.6%	16.8%	4.8%	3.1%	5.45	5.50	-0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	BOS	5	0	5	21	5	4	1	0%	1.0	21.6%	16.8%	4.8%	3.1%	5.45	5.50	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		5	0	5	20	4	3	1	0%	1.0	21.6%	16.8%	4.8%	3.1%	5.45	5.12	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	168	126	42	0%	1.1	21.6%	16.8%	4.8%	3.1%	5.45	5.12	-1.3
Career	—	MLE		114	0	160	717	187	135	16	0%	1.4	26.1%	18.9%	7.2%	2.2%	4.68	4.48	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		143	0	200	898	234	170	19	0%	1.4	26.1%	18.9%	7.2%	2.2%	4.68	4.48	-2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 30 IPFIP 4.89 → 5.61 (+0.73)K% 23.6% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.61%	—	×0.810	19.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.83%	—	×1.100	22.92%
HR / BF /BF	2.08%	÷1.119	×1.200	2.23%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 124).

Result: FIP 4.89 → 5.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 45 IPFIP 4.44 → 5.46 (+1.02)K% 29.9% → 24.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.85%	—	×0.810	24.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.42%	—	×1.100	16.97%
HR / BF /BF	3.48%	÷1.018	×1.200	4.11%

Result: FIP 4.44 → 5.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 31 IPFIP 2.54 → 3.34 (+0.79)K% 34.7% → 28.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.72%	—	×0.810	28.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.75%	—	×1.100	20.62%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.048	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.54 → 3.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Greenville Drive · 18 IPFIP 2.66 → 4.57 (+1.91)K% 48.7% → 37.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	48.68%	—	×0.770	37.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.84%	—	×1.150	13.62%
HR / BF /BF	3.95%	÷0.931	×1.250	5.30%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 86).

Result: FIP 2.66 → 4.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ASalem Red Sox · 33 IPFIP 2.27 → 3.42 (+1.15)K% 35.0% → 25.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.97%	—	×0.740	25.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.78%	—	×1.180	19.80%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.873	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 75).

Result: FIP 2.27 → 3.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Christopher Troye (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.48	21.6%	17.3%	3.0%	—	5.50	21.6%	4.8%	15	+0.02	—	—	—
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	83
Tyler Davis R 2024 · 6.02 FIP	25	SU	6.02	21.0%	18.8%	4.2%	.317	3.78	21.9%	10.2%	111	-2.24	3.20	137	79
Gregory Infante R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	28	SU	4.54	16.9%	15.7%	1.6%	.290	3.78	21.3%	12.7%	181	-0.76	2.97	230	79
Jose De La Torre R 2013 · 5.22 FIP	27	SU	5.22	28.3%	18.9%	3.9%	.308	3.87	17.6%	6.6%	110	-1.35	2.64	141	79
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	79
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	79
Stevie Branche R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	27	SU	5.67	19.3%	17.6%	3.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	3.23	162	78
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	77
Kevin Lenik R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	27	SU	4.91	21.7%	14.9%	3.2%	.205	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	107	77
Jeff Ames R 2019 · 4.45 FIP	28	SU	4.45	25.6%	16.8%	2.5%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	272	76
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	76
Vic Black R 2015 · 5.28 FIP	27	SU	5.28	17.5%	19.3%	2.2%	.358	6.03	9.0%	-11.6%	29	+0.75	3.16	107	76
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	76
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	75
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	28	SU	4.43	23.3%	13.6%	2.9%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	2.64	315	75
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	75
Jose Veras R 2009 · 5.13 FIP	28	SU	5.13	17.8%	12.4%	3.6%	.228	3.57	26.3%	14.0%	186	-1.56	3.37	422	74
Chris Jefferson R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	27	SU	5.65	16.4%	13.6%	4.0%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	140	74
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	74
Jake Haberer R 2023 · 5.10 FIP	28	SU	5.10	16.4%	14.7%	2.8%	.262	5.03	16.2%	-1.4%	15	-0.07	3.46	183	74