Conor Larkin

P Arkansas Travelers

Age 28 RHP 6'1" / 205 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	28	32	3.41	4.14	29.9%	15.3%	—	K 24.4% · BB 16.7% · FIP 4.82
2025	26	AATOR	39	50	4.14	3.12	23.7%	11.8%	—	K 19.2% · BB 13.0% · FIP 3.84
2026	27	MIX2 levels	37	40	9.60	5.58	19.9%	12.6%	—	K 16.4% · BB 12.5% · FIP 5.67
2027PROJ	28	MLBTOR	1	1	5.59	5.59	16.8%	13.5%	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBTOR	12	13	5.54	5.59	17.2%	13.3%	-0.1
2029PROJ51% MLB	30	MLBTOR	16	17	5.59	5.68	17.4%	13.3%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control40Command45

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsKevin Gryboski (age 28) · Spencer Bivens (age 28) · Beck Wheeler (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139131vR 123

ERA5.59

FIP5.59

K%16.8%

BB%13.5%

K-BB%3.4%

Proj IP59

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	0	24	99	30	9	1	0%	1.4	26.3%	12.0%	14.3%	0.0%	3.75	2.40	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	0	24	99	30	9	1	0%	1.4	30.3%	9.1%	21.2%	1.0%	3.75	2.27	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	35	0	46	193	57	21	2	0%	1.3	22.7%	12.5%	10.2%	1.0%	4.30	3.33	—
2023	24	A+ RAW	Vancouver Canadians	35	0	46	193	57	21	2	0%	1.3	29.5%	10.9%	18.7%	1.0%	4.30	2.56	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	32	137	41	21	4	0%	1.1	24.4%	16.7%	7.6%	3.0%	3.41	4.82	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	32	137	41	21	4	0%	1.1	24.4%	16.7%	7.6%	3.0%	3.41	4.82	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	0	32	137	41	21	4	0%	1.1	29.9%	15.3%	14.6%	2.9%	3.41	4.14	—
2025	26	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	39	0	50	211	50	25	2	0%	1.3	19.2%	13.0%	6.2%	1.3%	4.14	3.84	—
2025	26	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	39	0	50	211	50	25	2	0%	1.3	19.2%	13.0%	6.2%	1.3%	4.14	3.84	—
2025	26	AA RAW	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	39	0	50	211	50	25	2	0%	1.3	23.7%	11.8%	11.8%	0.9%	4.14	3.12	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	40	206	41	26	8	0%	1.1	16.4%	12.5%	3.9%	4.3%	9.60	5.67	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	40	206	41	26	8	0%	1.1	16.4%	12.5%	3.9%	4.3%	9.60	5.67	—
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	40	206	41	26	8	0%	1.1	19.9%	12.6%	7.3%	3.9%	9.60	5.58	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	TOR	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	16.8%	13.5%	3.4%	3.3%	5.59	5.59	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	TOR	40	0	42	175	30	23	6	0%	1.0	17.2%	13.3%	4.0%	3.4%	5.54	5.59	-0.5
2029	30	MLB MLE	TOR	32	0	34	142	25	19	5	0%	1.1	17.4%	13.3%	4.1%	3.6%	5.59	5.68	-0.4
2028	29	MLB CTX	TOR	12	0	13	55	9	7	2	0%	1.1	17.2%	13.3%	4.0%	3.4%	5.54	5.59	-0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	TOR	16	0	17	72	12	10	3	0%	1.1	17.4%	13.3%	4.1%	3.6%	5.59	5.68	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		29	0	30	128	22	17	5	0%	1.0	17.3%	13.3%	4.0%	3.5%	5.57	5.26	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	145	112	33	0%	1.1	17.3%	13.3%	4.0%	3.5%	5.57	5.26	-1.7
Career	—	MLE		156	0	192	846	178	112	18	0%	1.2	21.0%	13.3%	7.7%	2.1%	5.16	4.16	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		162	0	200	881	185	117	18	0%	1.2	21.0%	13.3%	7.7%	2.1%	5.16	4.16	-2.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAArkansas Travelers · 26 IPFIP 2.85 → 3.45 (+0.59)K% 23.3% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.33%	—	×0.810	18.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×1.100	11.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.83%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.85 → 3.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAABuffalo Bisons · 14 IPFIP 8.35 → 8.77 (+0.42)K% 15.1% → 13.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.12%	—	×0.860	13.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.28%	—	×0.900	14.65%
HR / BF /BF	8.14%	÷1.000	×1.100	8.95%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 8.35 → 8.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 50 IPFIP 3.12 → 3.84 (+0.72)K% 23.7% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.70%	—	×0.810	19.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.85%	—	×1.100	13.03%
HR / BF /BF	0.95%	÷0.885	×1.200	1.28%

Result: FIP 3.12 → 3.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Vancouver Canadians · 28 IPFIP 3.68 → 4.82 (+1.14)K% 31.6% → 24.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.62%	—	×0.770	24.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.53%	—	×1.150	16.71%
HR / BF /BF	2.56%	÷1.062	×1.250	3.02%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).

Result: FIP 3.68 → 4.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 4 IPFIP 6.69 → 7.39 (+0.71)K% 20.0% → 16.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.810	16.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.00%	—	×1.100	22.00%
HR / BF /BF	5.00%	÷1.145	×1.200	5.24%

Result: FIP 6.69 → 7.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Vancouver Canadians · 46 IPFIP 2.55 → 3.33 (+0.78)K% 29.5% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.53%	—	×0.770	22.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.88%	—	×1.150	12.51%
HR / BF /BF	1.04%	÷1.253	×1.250	1.03%

Result: FIP 2.55 → 3.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ADunedin Blue Jays · 15 IPFIP 1.38 → 2.40 (+1.01)K% 35.6% → 26.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.59%	—	×0.740	26.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.17%	—	×1.180	12.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.916	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).

Result: FIP 1.38 → 2.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Vancouver Canadians · 9 IPFIP 3.52 → 4.53 (+1.01)K% 22.5% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.50%	—	×0.770	17.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.50%	—	×1.150	8.62%
HR / BF /BF	2.50%	÷0.952	×1.250	3.28%

Result: FIP 3.52 → 4.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Conor Larkin (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.59	16.8%	13.5%	3.3%	—	5.63	17.3%	4.0%	75	+0.04	—	—	—
Kevin Gryboski R 2002 · 5.02 FIP	28	SU	5.02	13.9%	13.4%	2.5%	.263	3.83	12.0%	2.9%	126	-1.19	3.67	178	88
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	87
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	86
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	86
Jose Veras R 2009 · 5.13 FIP	28	SU	5.13	17.8%	12.4%	3.6%	.228	3.57	26.3%	14.0%	186	-1.56	3.37	422	85
Chris Jefferson R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	27	SU	5.65	16.4%	13.6%	4.0%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	140	84
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	83
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	83
Gregory Infante R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	28	SU	4.54	16.9%	15.7%	1.6%	.290	3.78	21.3%	12.7%	181	-0.76	2.97	230	83
David Goforth R 2017 · 5.09 FIP	28	SU	5.09	13.6%	10.2%	3.4%	.282	4.07	14.1%	5.5%	68	-1.02	3.98	256	83
Roman Phansalkar R 2024 · 5.39 FIP	26	SU	5.39	15.8%	13.2%	3.6%	.294	4.33	18.2%	3.7%	31	-1.06	4.33	164	83
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	82
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	82
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	81
Tyler Mizenko R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	26	SU	5.15	13.3%	10.2%	3.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	104	81
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	81
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	80
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	80
Jake Haberer R 2023 · 5.10 FIP	28	SU	5.10	16.4%	14.7%	2.8%	.262	5.03	16.2%	-1.4%	15	-0.07	3.46	183	80
Eder Llamas R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	29	SU	4.84	12.3%	8.8%	3.0%	.261	3.64	11.3%	4.6%	120	-1.20	3.23	171	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	45	17.1%	13.4%	1.33	5.57
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*