Conor Larkin — OGILVIE

Conor Larkin P Arkansas Travelers

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 205 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION40 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 112

ERA5.03

FIP5.03

K%19.8%

BB%14.1%

K-BB%5.7%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 46 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	0	24	99	30	9	1	0%	1.4	26.3%	12.0%	14.3%	0.0%	3.75	2.40	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	0	24	99	30	9	1	0%	1.4	30.3%	9.1%	21.2%	1.0%	3.75	2.27	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	35	0	46	193	57	21	2	0%	1.3	22.7%	12.5%	10.2%	1.0%	4.30	3.33	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	35	0	46	193	57	21	2	0%	1.3	22.7%	12.5%	10.2%	1.0%	4.30	3.33	—
2023	24	A+ RAW	Vancouver Canadians	35	0	46	193	57	21	2	0%	1.3	29.5%	10.9%	18.7%	1.0%	4.30	2.56	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	32	137	41	21	4	0%	1.1	24.4%	16.7%	7.6%	3.0%	3.41	4.82	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	32	137	41	21	4	0%	1.1	24.4%	16.7%	7.6%	3.0%	3.41	4.82	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	0	32	137	41	21	4	0%	1.1	29.9%	15.3%	14.6%	2.9%	3.41	4.14	—
2025	26	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	39	0	50	211	50	25	2	0%	1.3	19.2%	13.0%	6.2%	1.3%	4.14	3.84	—
2025	26	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	39	0	50	211	50	25	2	0%	1.3	19.2%	13.0%	6.2%	1.3%	4.14	3.84	—
2025	26	AA RAW	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	39	0	50	211	50	25	2	0%	1.3	23.7%	11.8%	11.8%	0.9%	4.14	3.12	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	37	0	40	206	41	26	8	0%	1.1	16.2%	12.5%	3.7%	4.3%	9.60	5.69	—
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	37	0	40	206	41	26	8	0%	1.1	16.2%	12.5%	3.7%	4.3%	9.60	5.69	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AA RAW	TOR	21	0	26	120	28	12	1	0%	1.2	23.3%	10.0%	13.3%	0.8%	7.62	2.85	—
2026	27	AAA RAW	TOR	16	0	14	86	13	14	7	0%	0.9	15.1%	16.3%	-1.2%	8.1%	13.19	8.35	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	TOR	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	19.8%	14.1%	5.7%	2.6%	5.03	5.03	-0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	TOR	—	—	46	231	46	29	9	—	—	19.9%	12.8%	7.1%	3.7%	9.02	5.60	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	TOR	65	0	68	287	58	39	8	0%	1.0	20.1%	13.8%	6.3%	2.8%	5.01	5.04	-0.4
2028	29	MLB MLE	TOR	62	0	65	274	55	37	8	0%	1.0	20.1%	13.7%	6.4%	2.9%	5.05	5.12	-0.4
2027	28	MLB CTX	TOR	25	0	26	110	22	15	3	0%	1.0	20.1%	13.8%	6.3%	2.8%	5.01	5.04	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	TOR	34	0	36	152	31	21	4	0%	1.1	20.1%	13.7%	6.4%	2.9%	5.05	5.12	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		59	0	62	261	52	36	7	0%	1.0	20.1%	13.7%	6.4%	2.9%	5.03	4.71	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	169	117	23	0%	1.1	20.1%	13.7%	6.4%	2.9%	5.03	4.71	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		156	0	192	846	177	112	18	0%	1.2	21.0%	13.3%	7.7%	2.1%	5.16	4.16	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		162	0	200	881	185	117	18	0%	1.2	21.0%	13.3%	7.7%	2.1%	5.16	4.16	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Conor Larkin (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.03	19.8%	14.1%	2.6%	—	5.08	20.1%	6.4%	133	+0.05	—	—	—
Gonzalez Germen R 2015 · 4.24 FIP	27	SU	4.24	18.0%	12.5%	1.9%	.296	3.88	19.2%	8.3%	54	-0.36	3.70	146	91
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	91
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	87
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	86
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	85
Cole Uvila R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	27	SU	4.06	20.4%	13.2%	1.8%	.360	3.16	20.2%	6.3%	44	-0.90	3.16	155	85
Theo Denlinger R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	27	SU	4.21	19.8%	15.1%	1.6%	.266	4.23	15.3%	9.9%	41	+0.02	2.92	140	84
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	84
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	84
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	84
Josh Zeid R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	28	SU	4.12	16.6%	12.5%	1.6%	.302	5.19	16.9%	5.7%	194	+1.07	4.12	265	84
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	84
J.J. Hoover R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	27	SU	4.22	19.7%	11.4%	2.5%	.211	4.46	24.6%	14.3%	98	+0.24	4.22	258	83
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	83
Chase Plymell R 2023 · 4.23 FIP	25	SU	4.23	19.2%	13.0%	2.0%	.330	4.53	13.6%	5.9%	162	+0.30	3.85	291	83
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	83
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	83
Gregory Infante R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	28	SU	4.54	16.9%	15.7%	1.6%	.290	3.78	21.3%	12.7%	181	-0.76	2.97	230	83
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	83
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	20.0%	13.8%	1.07	5.03
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78