Conor Larkin
P
Buffalo Bisons
Age 27
RHP
6'1" / 205 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION26 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132122vR 113
ERA4.99
FIP4.99
K%19.8%
BB%13.7%
K-BB%6.2%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 96 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 0 | 24 | 99 | 30 | 9 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 26.3% | 12.0% | 14.3% | 0.0% | 3.75 | 2.40 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 0 | 24 | 99 | 30 | 9 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 30.3% | 9.1% | 21.2% | 1.0% | 3.75 | 2.27 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 35 | 0 | 46 | 193 | 57 | 21 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.7% | 12.5% | 10.2% | 0.9% | 4.30 | 3.24 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 35 | 0 | 46 | 193 | 57 | 21 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 29.5% | 10.9% | 18.7% | 1.0% | 4.30 | 2.56 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 0 | 32 | 137 | 41 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.4% | 16.7% | 7.6% | 2.9% | 3.41 | 4.73 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 0 | 32 | 137 | 41 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.9% | 15.3% | 14.6% | 2.9% | 3.41 | 4.14 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 39 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 50 | 25 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 19.2% | 13.0% | 6.2% | 1.5% | 4.14 | 3.94 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 39 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 50 | 25 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.7% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 0.9% | 4.14 | 3.12 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 22 | 0 | 26 | 117 | 29 | 12 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.8% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 5.6% | 5.47 | 5.83 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | TOR | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 59 | 40 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.8% | 13.7% | 6.2% | 2.6% | 4.99 | 4.99 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | TOR | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.8% | 13.7% | 6.2% | 2.6% | 4.99 | 4.99 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 96 | 413 | 88 | 52 | 14 | — | — | 21.2% | 12.7% | 8.5% | 3.3% | 5.12 | 5.22 | +0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 19.8% | 13.7% | 6.2% | 2.6% | 4.99 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 58 | 38 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 13.4% | 6.7% | 2.8% | 4.97 | 5.01 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 55 | 36 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 13.3% | 6.8% | 2.9% | 5.02 | 5.09 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | TOR | 58 | 0 | 61 | 257 | 51 | 34 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 13.4% | 6.5% | 3.1% | 5.12 | 5.22 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 22 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 13.4% | 6.7% | 2.8% | 4.97 | 5.01 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 31 | 20 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.1% | 13.3% | 6.8% | 2.9% | 5.02 | 5.09 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | TOR | 39 | 0 | 41 | 173 | 34 | 23 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 13.4% | 6.5% | 3.1% | 5.12 | 5.22 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 99 | 0 | 104 | 441 | 88 | 59 | 13 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 13.4% | 6.6% | 3.0% | 5.05 | 4.74 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 169 | 113 | 25 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 13.4% | 6.6% | 3.0% | 5.05 | 4.74 | +1.5 | ||
| Career | — | 141 | 0 | 178 | 757 | 168 | 99 | 15 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.2% | 13.1% | 9.1% | 2.0% | 4.20 | 3.99 | +2.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 158 | 0 | 200 | 851 | 189 | 111 | 17 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.2% | 13.1% | 9.1% | 2.0% | 4.20 | 3.99 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Conor Larkin (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.99 | 19.8% | 13.7% | 2.6% | — | 5.10 | 20.0% | 6.7% | 194 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| Armando Rivero R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.39 | 18.7% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .256 | 2.81 | 32.9% | 19.8% | 68 | -1.58 | 2.81 | 125 | 92 |
| Gonzalez Germen R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.11 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 1.7% | .296 | 3.74 | 19.2% | 8.3% | 54 | -0.37 | 3.74 | 146 | 91 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 87 |
| Nolan Riggs R 2024 · 4.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.61 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 86 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.51 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .355 | 4.54 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | +0.03 | 3.57 | 187 | 85 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2027 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.39 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.65 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.26 | 4.39 | 101 | 85 |
| Cole Uvila R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.08 | 20.4% | 13.2% | 1.9% | .360 | 3.16 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 44 | -0.92 | 3.16 | 155 | 85 |
| Josh Zeid R 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.21 | 16.6% | 12.5% | 1.7% | .302 | 5.16 | 16.9% | 5.7% | 194 | +0.95 | 4.21 | 265 | 85 |
| J.J. Hoover R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.26 | 19.7% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .211 | 4.51 | 24.6% | 14.3% | 98 | +0.25 | 4.26 | 258 | 84 |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.33 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .309 | 5.34 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +1.01 | 3.43 | 160 | 84 |
| Nick Ernst R 2024 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.99 | 21.9% | 14.6% | 3.4% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 117 | 84 |
| Chris Beck R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.83 | 17.4% | 12.2% | 3.0% | .305 | 5.33 | 18.1% | 9.3% | 41 | +0.50 | 3.11 | 313 | 84 |
| Joe Record R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.86 | 20.1% | 13.0% | 1.5% | .333 | 3.63 | 21.6% | 8.8% | 112 | -0.23 | 2.59 | 280 | 83 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.69 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .297 | 4.04 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.65 | 4.04 | 102 | 83 |
| Grant Sides R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.89 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.1% | .247 | 3.24 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 47 | -0.65 | 3.24 | 159 | 83 |
| Cole McDonald R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.38 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 4.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 153 | 83 |
| Javy Guerra R 2029 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 83 |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 83 |
| Derek Eitel R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.32 | 18.1% | 13.9% | 1.8% | .338 | 4.21 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 113 | -0.11 | 3.85 | 138 | 83 |
| Julian Arballo R 2026 · 5.47 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.47 | 15.1% | 13.8% | 3.5% | .335 | 4.38 | 12.6% | 0.6% | 116 | -1.09 | 4.28 | 214 | 82 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 66 | 20.0% | 13.4% | 1.11 | 5.02 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |