Hudson Leach

P Corpus Christi Hooks

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 211 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX3 levels	27	1	39	3.26	3.98	29.3%	18.6%	—	K 20.5% · BB 20.0% · FIP 5.37
2025	23	MIX4 levels	34	0	39	5.54	2.72	36.6%	14.0%	—	K 31.0% · BB 13.2% · FIP 2.77
2026	24	MIX2 levels	50	0	50	7.51	4.95	20.5%	19.3%	—	K 16.8% · BB 19.6% · FIP 5.25
2027PROJ	25	MLBHOU	1	0	1	5.72	5.72	20.2%	19.9%	-0.0
2028PROJ32% MLB	26	MLBHOU	15	0	16	5.48	5.42	22.4%	18.8%	-0.2
2029PROJ49% MLB	27	MLBHOU	20	0	21	5.38	5.37	22.4%	18.2%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 0.9, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsJeff Ames (age 25) · Kevin Kopps (age 25) · Zane Russell (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 142134vR 126

ERA5.72

FIP5.72

K%20.2%

BB%19.9%

K-BB%0.2%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	1	39	167	49	31	3	4%	1.4	20.5%	20.0%	0.5%	2.7%	3.26	5.37	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	1	39	167	49	31	3	4%	1.4	20.5%	20.0%	0.5%	2.7%	3.26	5.37	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	1	39	167	49	31	3	4%	1.4	29.3%	18.6%	10.8%	1.8%	3.26	3.98	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	34	0	39	172	63	24	3	0%	1.1	31.0%	13.2%	17.8%	1.1%	5.54	2.77	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	34	0	39	172	63	24	3	0%	1.1	31.0%	13.2%	17.8%	1.1%	5.54	2.77	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	34	0	39	172	63	24	3	0%	1.1	36.6%	14.0%	22.7%	1.7%	5.54	2.72	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	50	244	50	47	4	0%	1.0	16.8%	19.6%	-2.8%	2.0%	7.51	5.25	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	50	244	50	47	4	0%	1.0	16.8%	19.6%	-2.8%	2.0%	7.51	5.25	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	0	50	244	50	47	4	0%	1.0	20.5%	19.3%	1.2%	1.6%	7.51	4.95	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	HOU	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	20.2%	19.9%	0.2%	2.6%	5.72	5.72	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	HOU	48	0	50	212	48	40	6	0%	1.0	22.4%	18.8%	3.6%	2.6%	5.48	5.42	-0.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	HOU	41	0	43	182	41	33	5	0%	1.0	22.4%	18.2%	4.3%	2.7%	5.38	5.37	-0.4
2030	28	MLB MLE	HOU	38	0	39	166	37	30	5	0%	1.0	22.4%	17.9%	4.5%	2.8%	5.37	5.40	-0.4
2031	29	MLB MLE	HOU	35	0	36	154	34	27	5	0%	1.0	22.2%	17.9%	4.3%	3.0%	5.44	5.51	-0.4
2028	26	MLB CTX	HOU	15	0	16	68	15	13	2	0%	1.1	22.4%	18.8%	3.6%	2.6%	5.48	5.42	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	HOU	20	0	21	89	20	16	2	0%	1.1	22.4%	18.2%	4.3%	2.7%	5.38	5.37	-0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	HOU	23	0	24	101	23	18	3	0%	1.0	22.4%	17.9%	4.5%	2.8%	5.37	5.40	-0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	HOU	24	0	25	106	23	19	3	0%	1.0	22.2%	17.9%	4.3%	3.0%	5.44	5.51	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		82	0	86	365	81	66	10	0%	1.1	22.3%	18.1%	4.2%	2.8%	5.41	5.05	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	188	153	23	0%	1.1	22.3%	18.1%	4.2%	2.8%	5.41	5.05	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		111	1	128	583	129	104	11	1%	1.2	22.0%	17.8%	4.2%	1.9%	5.63	4.55	-1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		173	2	200	911	201	162	17	1%	1.2	22.0%	17.8%	4.2%	1.9%	5.63	4.55	-2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 38 IPFIP 4.48 → 5.32 (+0.84)K% 23.4% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.39%	—	×0.810	18.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.37%	—	×1.100	18.01%
HR / BF /BF	2.34%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.81%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.48 → 5.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 13 IPFIP 5.24 → 5.07 (−0.17)K% 13.7% → 11.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.70%	—	×0.860	11.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	26.03%	—	×0.900	23.42%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.24 → 5.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Asheville Tourists · 20 IPFIP 1.79 → 2.77 (+0.98)K% 40.2% → 31.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.23%	—	×0.770	30.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.49%	—	×1.150	13.22%
HR / BF /BF	1.15%	÷1.297	×1.250	1.11%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 159).

Result: FIP 1.79 → 2.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 10 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.98 (+0.88)K% 34.1% → 27.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.15%	—	×0.810	27.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.20%	—	×1.100	13.41%
HR / BF /BF	2.44%	÷1.057	×1.200	2.77%

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 6 IPFIP 4.41 → 4.84 (+0.42)K% 27.6% → 23.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.59%	—	×0.860	23.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.79%	—	×0.900	12.41%
HR / BF /BF	3.45%	÷0.961	×1.100	3.95%

Result: FIP 4.41 → 4.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 30 IPFIP 4.17 → 5.37 (+1.20)K% 27.7% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.69%	—	×0.740	20.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.92%	—	×1.180	19.97%
HR / BF /BF	2.31%	÷1.118	×1.300	2.68%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 124).

Result: FIP 4.17 → 5.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Asheville Tourists · 5 IPFIP 2.89 → 4.14 (+1.25)K% 40.0% → 30.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.00%	—	×0.770	30.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	25.00%	—	×1.150	28.75%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.073	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.89 → 4.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hudson Leach (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.6%	—	5.40	22.4%	4.1%	133	-0.32	—	—	—
Jeff Ames R 2016 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	18.0%	16.1%	2.8%	.229	4.34	25.2%	11.2%	142	-0.83	3.85	272	86
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	86
Zane Russell R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	22.7%	18.3%	2.6%	.314	5.36	18.2%	6.7%	71	+0.41	4.63	108	85
Ray Gaither R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	25	SU	4.89	18.1%	16.4%	2.3%	.278	4.13	18.4%	7.3%	90	-0.76	3.84	164	84
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	84
Aroni Nina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	25	SU	4.90	16.8%	20.5%	1.1%	.312	3.04	18.8%	8.7%	64	-1.86	2.68	115	84
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	84
Christian Ruebeck R 2024 · 6.03 FIP	23	SU	6.03	20.6%	24.4%	2.9%	.265	4.57	21.6%	1.9%	70	-1.46	4.35	104	84
Ryan Jensen R 2023 · 4.61 FIP	25	SU	4.61	20.9%	17.0%	2.0%	.329	4.12	24.4%	7.6%	107	-0.49	3.92	311	83
Lukas Schiraldi R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	25	SU	5.00	18.7%	19.3%	1.9%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	319	83
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	83
Ryan Sublette R 2024 · 5.72 FIP	25	SU	5.72	19.9%	17.5%	3.8%	.214	4.47	18.6%	5.0%	53	-1.25	3.74	203	82
Andrew McInvale R 2022 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	17.6%	15.9%	2.8%	.324	6.44	24.5%	10.0%	23	+1.29	4.92	103	81
Jacob Morris R 2016 · 4.77 FIP	25	SU	4.77	18.7%	21.1%	1.0%	.236	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	102	81
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	81
Kyle Wilcox R 2019 · 5.16 FIP	25	SU	5.16	25.1%	21.2%	2.7%	.310	5.57	25.1%	-1.5%	13	+0.41	2.78	310	81
Blake Rivera R 2023 · 4.78 FIP	25	SU	4.78	20.9%	19.4%	1.8%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	179	81
Danny Reynolds R 2016 · 4.72 FIP	25	SU	4.72	16.6%	16.8%	1.6%	.263	3.71	16.0%	4.3%	88	-1.01	3.29	165	80
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	80
José A. Váldez R 2015 · 4.55 FIP	25	SU	4.55	15.3%	15.3%	1.5%	.279	4.32	22.3%	9.9%	167	-0.23	4.02	328	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	48	21.7%	18.7%	1.05	5.51
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*