Hudson Leach — OGILVIE

Hudson Leach P Corpus Christi Hooks

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 211 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION50 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.74

FIP4.74

K%29.3%

BB%17.1%

K-BB%12.2%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF7065

CTRL—40

CMD3030

K†6565

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	1	39	167	49	31	3	4%	1.4	20.5%	20.0%	0.5%	2.7%	3.26	5.37	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	1	39	167	49	31	3	4%	1.4	20.5%	20.0%	0.5%	2.7%	3.26	5.37	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	1	39	167	49	31	3	4%	1.4	29.3%	18.6%	10.8%	1.8%	3.26	3.98	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	34	0	39	172	63	24	3	0%	1.1	31.0%	13.2%	17.8%	1.1%	5.54	2.77	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	34	0	39	172	63	24	3	0%	1.1	31.0%	13.2%	17.8%	1.1%	5.54	2.77	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	34	0	39	172	63	24	3	0%	1.1	36.6%	14.0%	22.7%	1.7%	5.54	2.72	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	50	0	50	244	50	47	4	0%	1.0	16.7%	19.6%	-3.0%	2.0%	7.51	5.26	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	50	0	50	244	50	47	4	0%	1.0	16.7%	19.6%	-3.0%	2.0%	7.51	5.26	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	HOU	36	0	38	171	40	28	4	0%	1.0	23.4%	16.4%	7.0%	2.3%	6.45	4.48	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	HOU	14	0	13	73	10	19	0	0%	0.9	13.7%	26.0%	-12.3%	0.0%	10.66	5.24	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	HOU	6	0	6	25	7	4	1	0%	1.0	29.3%	17.1%	12.2%	2.9%	4.74	4.74	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	HOU	—	—	56	269	57	51	5	—	—	21.3%	19.1%	2.2%	1.8%	7.22	5.20	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	HOU	87	0	91	385	111	58	11	0%	1.0	29.0%	15.2%	13.8%	2.9%	4.59	4.53	+0.0
2028	26	MLB MLE	HOU	87	0	91	385	110	56	11	0%	1.0	28.7%	14.6%	14.1%	2.9%	4.51	4.48	+0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	HOU	85	0	90	379	107	54	11	0%	1.1	28.3%	14.3%	14.0%	2.9%	4.50	4.51	+0.0
2030	28	MLB MLE	HOU	83	0	87	367	103	52	11	0%	1.0	28.0%	14.3%	13.7%	3.0%	4.55	4.59	-0.0
2031	29	MLB MLE	HOU	79	0	83	351	98	51	11	0%	1.1	27.8%	14.5%	13.3%	3.2%	4.65	4.72	-0.2
2032	30	MLB MLE	HOU	74	0	78	330	97	46	11	0%	1.1	29.4%	14.0%	15.4%	3.4%	4.63	4.62	-0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	HOU	38	0	40	169	49	26	5	0%	1.1	29.0%	15.2%	13.8%	2.9%	4.59	4.53	+0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	HOU	58	0	61	258	74	38	7	0%	1.1	28.7%	14.6%	14.1%	2.9%	4.51	4.48	+0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	HOU	67	0	70	296	84	42	9	0%	1.0	28.3%	14.3%	14.0%	2.9%	4.50	4.51	+0.0
2030	28	MLB CTX	HOU	70	0	73	308	86	44	9	0%	1.0	28.0%	14.3%	13.7%	3.0%	4.55	4.59	-0.0
2031	29	MLB CTX	HOU	70	0	73	308	86	45	10	0%	1.0	27.8%	14.5%	13.3%	3.2%	4.65	4.72	-0.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	HOU	67	0	70	296	87	41	10	0%	1.0	29.4%	14.0%	15.4%	3.4%	4.63	4.62	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		369	0	387	1634	466	236	50	0%	1.0	28.5%	14.4%	14.1%	3.1%	4.57	4.20	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	241	122	26	0%	1.0	28.5%	14.4%	14.1%	3.1%	4.57	4.20	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		111	1	128	583	128	104	11	1%	1.2	22.0%	17.8%	4.2%	1.9%	5.63	4.56	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		173	2	200	911	200	162	17	1%	1.2	22.0%	17.8%	4.2%	1.9%	5.63	4.56	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hudson Leach (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.74	29.3%	17.1%	2.9%	—	4.51	28.7%	14.0%	272	-0.23	—	—	—
Nick Ernst R 2021 · 3.56 FIP	24	SU	3.56	30.5%	15.3%	2.0%	.292	5.05	21.9%	7.3%	60	+1.49	3.56	117	84
Andrew McInvale R 2021 · 4.92 FIP	24	SU	4.92	26.4%	16.3%	3.6%	.278	5.66	20.3%	5.0%	58	+0.74	4.92	103	82
Justin Yeager R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	29.6%	15.8%	3.6%	.230	3.39	19.5%	9.1%	108	-1.19	3.32	262	81
Jackson Kelley R 2023 · 3.80 FIP	23	SU	3.80	26.5%	13.1%	2.3%	.313	3.65	21.6%	10.7%	165	-0.15	3.21	218	80
Christopher Troye R 2023 · 3.76 FIP	24	SU	3.76	31.4%	18.2%	1.8%	.287	5.52	22.2%	2.8%	75	+1.76	3.42	158	80
Tommy Kahnle R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	23.8%	14.8%	2.1%	.284	2.58	30.9%	21.0%	165	-1.55	1.53	458	79
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	78
Shane Broyles R 2016 · 4.03 FIP	24	SU	4.03	24.3%	15.3%	1.9%	.328	3.62	26.4%	17.1%	108	-0.41	3.34	218	78
Peter Tago R 2016 · 3.65 FIP	24	SU	3.65	24.4%	14.0%	1.5%	.303	3.44	23.6%	8.3%	39	-0.21	3.26	207	77
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	77
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	77
Jonathan Sprinkle R 2022 · 4.18 FIP	24	SU	4.18	24.8%	16.3%	2.0%	.331	6.20	17.4%	-5.5%	26	+2.02	3.81	109	77
Tyler Thornton R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	23	SU	4.42	29.0%	17.1%	2.9%	.188	4.89	22.2%	4.8%	63	+0.47	3.73	148	77
Tyler Vogel R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	22	SU	4.93	23.4%	14.3%	3.6%	.305	4.48	19.1%	6.1%	135	-0.45	3.84	200	76
Riley Ferrell R 2018 · 4.38 FIP	24	SU	4.38	24.1%	15.6%	2.5%	.333	4.21	23.1%	7.4%	55	-0.17	2.85	175	76
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	159	76
Dakota Mekkes R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	23.1%	15.4%	2.7%	.290	4.85	16.7%	1.8%	70	+0.27	2.94	246	76
Carlos Contreras R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	24	SU	4.29	22.2%	15.6%	2.0%	.271	4.46	11.9%	2.4%	40	+0.17	4.29	107	76
Matt Keating R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	22	SU	4.34	23.3%	14.8%	2.4%	.346	4.63	23.2%	9.1%	157	+0.29	3.38	222	76
Zack Jones R 2015 · 3.57 FIP	24	SU	3.57	23.9%	14.0%	1.3%	.280	3.64	28.1%	10.9%	57	+0.07	2.57	109	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	87	28.7%	14.9%	1.16	4.59
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15
Dinelson Lamet ('23)	1.8	61	30.0%	10.7%	1.29	4.66
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Caleb Smith ('22)	2.1	104	25.1%	11.0%	1.67	4.47