Blake Rivera
P
Richmond Flying Squirrels
+0.2
WAR
Age 28
RHP
6'4" / 225 lbs
AA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.44
FIP4.44
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.2%
BB%10.3%
K-BB%12.9%
IP38
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 21 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 18 | 17 | 75 | 328 | 87 | 41 | 3 | 20.3% | 14.5% | 1.1% | 4.32 | 3.84 | +1.1 |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | 10 | 4 | 24 | 109 | 31 | 8 | 3 | 19.2% | 8.5% | 3.5% | 4.81 | 4.49 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 28 | 1 | 47 | 195 | 48 | 22 | 2 | 19.9% | 12.4% | 1.3% | 2.70 | 3.71 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 37 | 0 | 46 | 221 | 57 | 39 | 3 | 20.9% | 19.4% | 1.8% | 4.93 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | SF | 38 | — | 38 | 162 | 38 | 17 | 5 | 23.2% | 10.3% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | SF | 38 | — | 38 | 158 | 36 | 16 | 5 | 23.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.46 | 4.48 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | SF | 36 | — | 36 | 154 | 35 | 16 | 5 | 22.9% | 10.3% | 3.1% | 4.49 | 4.53 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | SF | 35 | — | 35 | 148 | 34 | 15 | 5 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 3.1% | 4.54 | 4.59 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | SF | 34 | — | 34 | 142 | 32 | 15 | 5 | 22.4% | 10.5% | 3.2% | 4.61 | 4.67 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | SF | 32 | — | 32 | 136 | 30 | 14 | 4 | 22.1% | 10.6% | 3.3% | 4.70 | 4.77 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | SF | 31 | — | 31 | 129 | 28 | 14 | 4 | 21.8% | 10.8% | 3.4% | 4.81 | 4.88 | +0.0 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | SF | 29 | — | 29 | 122 | 26 | 13 | 4 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 3.5% | 4.92 | 5.00 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 93 | 22 | 192 | 853 | 173 | 124 | 14 | 20.2% | 14.5% | 1.7% | 4.13 | 4.14 | +2.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 97 | 23 | 200 | 890 | 181 | 129 | 15 | 20.2% | 14.5% | 1.7% | 4.13 | 4.14 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Blake Rivera (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.44 | 23.2% | 10.3% | 2.9% | — | 4.53 | 22.9% | 12.6% | 109 | +0.09 | — | — | — |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.76 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.0% | .276 | 2.42 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 34 | -1.34 | 2.42 | 125 | 89 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.47 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.57 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.10 | 2.59 | 137 | 86 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2027 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | .241 | 3.99 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.34 | 3.47 | 149 | 85 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.34 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.07 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.73 | 3.25 | 150 | 82 |
| Michael Dimock R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.39 | 23.5% | 10.7% | 1.7% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 166 | 82 |
| Joe Colón J R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 81 |
| David Hernandez R 2028 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 81 |
| Marc Magliaro R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.01 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 125 | 81 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.1% | .265 | 3.87 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.98 | 3.45 | 315 | 81 |
| Casey Legumina R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.01 | 25.1% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 283 | 81 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2028 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 81 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.56 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.23 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.33 | 2.83 | 228 | 81 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2027 · 3.52 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.52 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .283 | 3.61 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | +0.09 | 3.17 | 272 | 81 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.52 | 22.6% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .327 | 4.82 | 20.9% | 11.8% | 74 | +1.30 | 2.39 | 676 | 81 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 80 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.72 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .333 | 4.05 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.33 | 3.70 | 147 | 80 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.25 | 22.2% | 7.9% | 1.9% | .247 | 4.33 | 23.4% | 14.6% | 39 | +1.08 | 3.25 | 160 | 80 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.82 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .275 | 6.70 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +1.88 | 3.88 | 180 | 80 |
| Rob Scahill R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.75 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 2.0% | .288 | 3.35 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 171 | -0.40 | 3.08 | 201 | 80 |
| Blake Treinen R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.30 | 24.0% | 9.5% | 1.8% | .271 | 2.97 | 26.0% | 17.7% | 215 | -0.33 | 1.54 | 521 | 80 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.