Blake Rivera — OGILVIE

Blake Rivera P Richmond Flying Squirrels

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.93

FIP4.93

K%22.4%

BB%13.7%

K-BB%8.8%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	17	75	328	87	41	3	94%	4.2	20.3%	14.5%	5.8%	1.1%	4.32	3.85	—
2019	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	17	75	328	87	41	3	94%	4.2	26.5%	12.5%	14.0%	0.9%	4.32	2.94	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	4	24	109	31	8	3	40%	2.4	19.2%	8.5%	10.8%	3.5%	4.81	4.47	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	4	24	109	31	8	3	40%	2.4	28.4%	7.3%	21.1%	2.8%	4.81	3.14	—
2022	24	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	28	1	47	195	48	22	2	4%	1.7	19.9%	12.4%	7.5%	1.3%	2.70	3.72	—
2022	24	AA RAW	Richmond Flying Squirrels	28	1	47	195	48	22	2	4%	1.7	24.6%	11.3%	13.3%	1.0%	2.70	3.01	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	37	0	46	221	57	39	3	0%	1.2	20.9%	19.4%	1.5%	1.8%	4.93	4.78	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	37	0	46	221	57	39	3	0%	1.2	20.9%	19.4%	1.5%	1.8%	4.93	4.78	—
2023	25	AA RAW	Richmond Flying Squirrels	37	0	46	221	57	39	3	0%	1.2	25.8%	17.6%	8.1%	1.4%	4.93	4.02	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	SF	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	22.4%	13.7%	8.8%	2.9%	4.93	4.93	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	SF	24	0	26	109	24	15	3	0%	1.1	22.3%	13.4%	8.8%	3.1%	4.95	5.00	-0.1
2027	29	MLB CTX	SF	8	0	8	34	8	5	1	0%	1.0	22.3%	13.4%	8.8%	3.1%	4.95	5.00	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	8	34	8	5	1	0%	1.0	22.3%	13.4%	8.8%	3.1%	4.95	4.62	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	199	124	25	0%	1.1	22.3%	13.4%	8.8%	3.1%	4.95	4.62	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		93	22	192	853	173	124	14	24%	2.1	20.2%	14.5%	5.7%	1.7%	4.13	4.14	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		97	23	200	890	180	129	15	24%	2.1	20.2%	14.5%	5.7%	1.7%	4.13	4.14	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Blake Rivera (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.93	22.4%	13.7%	2.9%	—	5.00	22.3%	8.8%	26	+0.07	—	—	—
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	79
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	78
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	77
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	76
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	75
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	75
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	75
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	74
Josh Zeid R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	28	SU	4.12	16.6%	12.5%	1.6%	.302	5.19	16.9%	5.7%	194	+1.07	4.12	265	74
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	74
Jeff Ames R 2019 · 4.45 FIP	28	SU	4.45	25.6%	16.8%	2.5%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	272	73
Travis Hissong R 2017 · 4.17 FIP	26	SU	4.17	20.3%	13.5%	2.0%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	122	73
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	73
Luis Santos R 2019 · 4.31 FIP	28	SU	4.31	22.9%	10.0%	3.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	472	73
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	73
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	72
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	72
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	28	SU	4.43	23.3%	13.6%	2.9%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	2.64	315	72
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	159	72
Trevor Cahill R 2016 · 4.22 FIP	28	SU	4.22	23.2%	11.8%	2.9%	.274	4.60	21.1%	11.2%	310	+0.38	3.37	556	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	22.3%	13.5%	1.17	4.94
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64