Manuel Perez — OGILVIE

Manuel Perez P ACL Athletics

+0.0 WAR

Age 20 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.7 · 2030

ERA4.46

FIP4.46

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.3%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%11.3%

IP48

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.7peak

2030

K†5060

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	16	ROK	DSL Athletics	11	7	38	170	29	15	1	11.6%	11.0%	0.9%	3.58	4.02	+0.4
2023	17	ROK	DSL Athletics	10	6	33	159	41	15	2	17.5%	11.8%	1.7%	5.13	4.02	+0.4
2024	18	ROK	ACL Athletics	13	6	39	189	38	30	2	13.7%	19.8%	1.8%	6.64	5.45	-0.2
2025	19	ROK	ACL Athletics	14	11	56	262	47	22	0	12.2%	10.5%	0.0%	6.14	3.40	+1.0
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	MLB	OAK	48	—	48	205	44	20	6	21.3%	10.0%	2.8%	4.46	4.46	+0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	21	MLB	OAK	51	—	51	215	47	20	6	21.9%	9.5%	2.7%	4.37	4.32	+0.4
2028	22	MLB	OAK	53	—	53	225	52	20	6	22.9%	8.9%	2.7%	4.24	4.14	+0.5
2029	23	MLB	OAK	55	—	55	234	55	20	6	23.6%	8.5%	2.7%	4.11	4.02	+0.6
2030	24	MLB	OAK	57	—	57	240	58	20	6	24.2%	8.3%	2.6%	4.01	3.93	+0.7
2031	25	MLB	OAK	58	—	58	243	60	20	6	24.6%	8.2%	2.6%	3.93	3.88	+0.7
2032	26	MLB	OAK	58	—	58	243	60	20	6	24.8%	8.1%	2.6%	3.89	3.86	+0.7
2033	27	MLB	OAK	57	—	57	241	60	20	6	24.8%	8.2%	2.6%	3.88	3.87	+0.7
2034	28	MLB	OAK	56	—	56	237	59	19	6	24.7%	8.2%	2.7%	3.89	3.89	+0.7
2035	29	MLB	OAK	55	—	55	232	57	19	6	24.6%	8.3%	2.7%	3.92	3.94	+0.6
2036	30	MLB	OAK	53	—	53	225	55	19	6	24.4%	8.4%	2.8%	3.97	4.00	+0.6
2037	31	MLB	OAK	51	—	51	217	52	18	6	24.2%	8.5%	2.8%	4.03	4.08	+0.5
2038	32	MLB	OAK	49	—	49	208	50	18	6	23.9%	8.7%	2.9%	4.11	4.16	+0.4
2039	33	MLB	OAK	47	—	47	199	47	18	6	23.6%	8.8%	3.0%	4.20	4.26	+0.4
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			48	30	166	780	105	102	8	13.5%	13.1%	1.0%	5.48	4.16	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—			58	36	200	940	127	123	10	13.5%	13.1%	1.0%	5.48	4.16	+2.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Manuel Perez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.46	21.3%	10.0%	2.8%	—	4.16	22.8%	13.9%	160	-0.30	—	—	—
Eccel Correa R 2026 · 4.34 FIP	20	SU	4.34	19.4%	11.9%	2.5%	.316	4.01	14.2%	3.6%	122	-0.33	3.99	157	94
Brandon Komar R 2026 · 4.74 FIP	20	SU	4.74	17.7%	11.6%	3.0%	.327	4.93	16.7%	5.7%	198	+0.19	3.03	538	93
Tyler Gray R 2027 · 4.49 FIP	21	SU	4.49	18.2%	11.7%	2.6%	.333	4.39	11.9%	3.6%	72	-0.10	4.39	119	93
Austin Mason R 2027 · 4.41 FIP	21	SU	4.41	17.1%	11.6%	2.4%	.289	4.06	16.2%	6.5%	151	-0.35	3.60	179	91
Alec Kisena R 2025 · 4.01 FIP	19	SU	4.01	17.6%	11.8%	1.7%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	248	90
Audry Lugo R 2026 · 4.05 FIP	20	SU	4.05	18.5%	11.4%	2.0%	.247	5.31	15.6%	-0.4%	77	+1.26	4.05	113	90
Aneudy Duarte R 2026 · 4.79 FIP	20	SU	4.79	17.1%	11.7%	3.0%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.26	102	89
Luis Hernandez R 2027 · 4.90 FIP	21	SU	4.90	16.7%	14.0%	2.6%	.311	5.68	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.78	4.10	109	89
Logan Lombana R 2027 · 4.63 FIP	21	SU	4.63	16.9%	10.0%	3.1%	.315	4.01	15.7%	8.1%	123	-0.62	3.80	155	89
Felix Arronde R 2026 · 4.42 FIP	20	SU	4.42	20.2%	12.1%	2.7%	.275	4.19	16.1%	7.1%	239	-0.23	4.15	337	89
Joshua Quezada R 2026 · 4.38 FIP	20	SU	4.38	18.3%	11.7%	2.4%	.293	4.30	15.8%	7.4%	35	-0.08	3.53	116	89
Reibyn Corona R 2025 · 4.93 FIP	19	SU	4.93	17.0%	13.1%	2.9%	.290	5.58	14.5%	1.7%	63	+0.65	4.46	190	89
Luis Cohen R 2026 · 4.12 FIP	20	SU	4.12	17.2%	11.4%	1.9%	.263	4.68	13.7%	3.7%	189	+0.56	3.00	275	89
Jharold Clemente R 2026 · 5.08 FIP	20	SU	5.08	17.5%	13.6%	3.1%	.258	5.28	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.20	3.92	116	88
Gerson Moreno R 2026 · 4.48 FIP	20	SU	4.48	18.6%	14.8%	2.0%	.278	4.13	23.0%	9.1%	67	-0.35	3.66	349	88
Ulices Campos R 2026 · 4.60 FIP	20	SU	4.60	17.9%	11.5%	2.8%	.253	5.37	12.0%	1.0%	65	+0.77	4.11	153	88
Bryan Polanco R 2026 · 5.27 FIP	20	SU	5.27	18.2%	14.3%	3.5%	.248	5.60	13.0%	1.2%	243	+0.33	5.27	284	88
Darlin Saladin R 2026 · 4.98 FIP	20	SU	4.98	16.2%	13.3%	2.8%	.280	3.87	18.3%	8.1%	218	-1.11	2.91	351	88
Luke Stofel R 2028 · 4.27 FIP	22	SU	4.27	17.6%	12.4%	2.0%	.328	4.31	12.8%	0.9%	97	+0.04	4.27	139	88
Josnier Parra R 2027 · 4.53 FIP	21	SU	4.53	15.9%	9.8%	2.8%	.319	4.37	9.8%	1.9%	70	-0.16	3.79	102	88

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.7	$4M	+$3M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	+0.6	$3M	+$3M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$13M	+$10M