Manuel Perez

P ACL Athletics

Age 21 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs ROK peak 0.1 · 2031

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	19	ROKOAK	14	11	56	6.14	2.60	17.9%	8.4%	—	K 12.2% · BB 10.5% · FIP 3.40
2026	20	ROKOAK	16	1	22	6.04	6.64	25.2%	13.1%	—	K 17.2% · BB 16.4% · FIP 8.75
2027PROJ	21	MLBOAK	—	—	0	6.02	6.02	13.2%	15.6%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBOAK	17	0	18	5.68	5.56	15.8%	13.9%	-0.2
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBOAK	26	0	27	5.39	5.27	17.4%	12.9%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff25Control40Command30

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsJuan Perez (age 21) · Seth McClung (age 22) · Mason McGwire (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 147139vR 131

ERA6.02

FIP6.02

K%13.2%

BB%15.6%

K-BB%-2.4%

Proj IP36

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF2525

CTRL4040

CMD3030

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	16	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	11	7	38	170	29	15	1	64%	3.4	11.6%	11.0%	0.6%	0.9%	3.58	4.02	—
2022	16	ROK RAW	DSL Athletics	11	7	38	170	29	15	1	64%	3.4	17.1%	8.8%	8.2%	0.6%	3.58	3.10	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	10	6	33	159	41	15	2	60%	3.3	17.5%	11.8%	5.7%	1.7%	5.13	4.04	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Athletics	10	6	33	159	41	15	2	60%	3.3	25.8%	9.4%	16.4%	1.3%	5.13	2.77	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Athletics	13	6	39	189	38	30	2	46%	3.0	13.7%	19.8%	-6.2%	1.7%	6.64	5.41	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Athletics	13	6	39	189	38	30	2	46%	3.0	13.7%	19.8%	-6.2%	1.7%	6.64	5.41	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	ACL Athletics	13	6	39	189	38	30	2	46%	3.0	20.1%	15.9%	4.2%	1.1%	6.64	4.12	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Athletics	14	11	56	262	47	22	0	79%	4.0	12.2%	10.5%	1.7%	0.0%	6.14	3.40	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Athletics	14	11	56	262	47	22	0	79%	4.0	12.2%	10.5%	1.7%	0.0%	6.14	3.40	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	ACL Athletics	14	11	56	262	47	22	0	79%	4.0	17.9%	8.4%	9.5%	0.0%	6.14	2.60	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	ACL Athletics	16	1	22	107	27	14	7	6%	1.4	17.2%	16.4%	0.8%	9.2%	6.04	8.75	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	ACL Athletics	16	1	22	107	27	14	7	6%	1.4	17.2%	16.4%	0.8%	9.2%	6.04	8.75	—
2026	20	ROK RAW	ACL Athletics	16	1	22	107	27	14	7	6%	1.4	25.2%	13.1%	12.1%	6.5%	6.04	6.64	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	OAK	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	13.2%	15.6%	-2.4%	3.1%	6.02	6.02	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	OAK	35	0	37	156	25	22	5	0%	1.1	15.8%	13.9%	1.8%	3.0%	5.68	5.56	-0.4
2029	23	MLB MLE	OAK	35	0	37	156	27	20	5	0%	1.1	17.4%	12.9%	4.5%	2.9%	5.39	5.27	-0.3
2028	22	MLB CTX	OAK	17	0	18	76	12	11	2	0%	1.1	15.8%	13.9%	1.8%	3.0%	5.68	5.56	-0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	OAK	26	0	27	114	20	15	3	0%	1.0	17.4%	12.9%	4.5%	2.9%	5.39	5.27	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		43	0	45	190	32	25	6	0%	1.0	16.7%	13.3%	3.4%	3.0%	5.51	5.00	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	142	111	27	0%	1.1	16.7%	13.3%	3.4%	3.0%	5.51	5.00	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		64	31	188	887	124	120	17	48%	2.9	14.0%	13.5%	0.4%	2.0%	5.54	4.71	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		68	33	200	942	131	127	18	48%	2.9	14.0%	13.5%	0.4%	2.0%	5.54	4.71	-2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKACL Athletics · 22 IPFIP 6.22 → 8.75 (+2.53)K% 25.2% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.23%	—	×0.680	17.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.08%	—	×1.250	16.36%
HR / BF /BF	6.54%	÷1.000	×1.400	9.16%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 6.22 → 8.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Athletics · 56 IPFIP 2.65 → 3.40 (+0.75)K% 17.9% → 12.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.94%	—	×0.680	12.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.40%	—	×1.250	10.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.926	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.65 → 3.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Athletics · 39 IPFIP 3.99 → 5.41 (+1.42)K% 20.1% → 13.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.11%	—	×0.680	13.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.87%	—	×1.250	19.84%
HR / BF /BF	1.06%	÷0.852	×1.400	1.74%

Result: FIP 3.99 → 5.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKDSL Athletics · 33 IPFIP 2.81 → 4.04 (+1.24)K% 25.8% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.79%	—	×0.680	17.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.43%	—	×1.250	11.79%
HR / BF /BF	1.26%	÷1.039	×1.400	1.69%

Result: FIP 2.81 → 4.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKDSL Athletics · 38 IPFIP 3.10 → 4.02 (+0.92)K% 17.1% → 11.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.06%	—	×0.680	11.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.82%	—	×1.250	11.03%
HR / BF /BF	0.59%	÷0.902	×1.400	0.91%

Result: FIP 3.10 → 4.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Manuel Perez (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.02	13.2%	15.6%	3.1%	—	5.41	16.6%	3.2%	74	-0.61	—	—	—
Juan Perez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	21	SW	5.39	15.4%	14.1%	3.3%	.321	4.52	10.8%	0.0%	56	-0.87	4.52	113	88
Seth McClung R 2003 · 5.63 FIP	22	SW	5.63	15.0%	14.4%	3.6%	.241	5.29	15.3%	2.8%	212	-0.34	2.52	430	86
Mason McGwire R 2024 · 6.46 FIP	20	SP-	6.46	11.7%	21.2%	3.0%	.298	4.11	21.4%	10.7%	79	-2.35	4.11	155	85
Reynardo Cruz R 2022 · 5.44 FIP	20	SW	5.44	16.1%	18.2%	2.5%	.252	4.85	16.3%	-1.2%	66	-0.59	3.96	216	85
Johan Moreno R 2024 · 6.25 FIP	21	SW	6.25	13.2%	16.7%	3.9%	.325	4.36	20.7%	8.0%	115	-1.89	3.09	216	84
Kamdyn Perry R 2024 · 5.61 FIP	18	SW	5.61	12.3%	18.4%	2.2%	.300	5.55	14.9%	1.0%	116	-0.06	5.31	142	82
Garrett Nuss R 2015 · 5.71 FIP	22	SW	5.71	14.1%	14.9%	3.5%	.352	4.58	15.0%	5.3%	92	-1.13	4.57	174	82
Wirkin Estevez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	24	SW	5.39	10.7%	13.4%	2.7%	.316	4.46	12.3%	3.5%	179	-0.93	4.37	238	82
Rubén Menes R 2023 · 6.12 FIP	21	SP-	6.12	13.1%	21.9%	2.5%	.257	4.94	15.6%	2.1%	100	-1.18	3.39	112	81
Jol Concepcion R 2021 · 6.54 FIP	22	SW	6.54	12.2%	20.0%	3.5%	.272	4.60	23.9%	3.9%	50	-1.94	4.60	154	81
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	81
Jhon Vergara R 2019 · 5.75 FIP	19	SW	5.75	11.1%	13.1%	3.5%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	106	80
Joe Barlow R 2016 · 6.15 FIP	20	SW	6.15	13.6%	16.4%	3.9%	.269	3.72	29.5%	10.7%	116	-2.43	2.99	354	80
Orlando Gonzalez R 2024 · 6.34 FIP	21	SP-	6.34	13.8%	18.8%	3.7%	.155	4.18	18.9%	4.9%	71	-2.16	3.83	114	80
Xavier Moore R 2019 · 4.93 FIP	20	SW	4.93	12.5%	15.8%	1.6%	.288	4.35	27.6%	13.0%	71	-0.58	2.31	135	80
Drew Conover R 2024 · 6.25 FIP	23	SW	6.25	15.6%	29.8%	1.3%	.272	5.19	12.6%	-3.4%	106	-1.06	4.49	145	80
Bryant Salgado R 2021 · 5.65 FIP	21	SW	5.65	14.2%	20.4%	2.1%	.219	4.83	15.9%	3.5%	89	-0.82	4.83	110	79
Gillian Wernet R 2018 · 5.46 FIP	19	SP-	5.46	11.2%	16.6%	2.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	107	79
Pedro González R 2021 · 5.23 FIP	21	SW	5.23	13.9%	16.0%	2.3%	.321	4.26	11.0%	3.4%	109	-0.97	4.06	285	79
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.5	36	15.5%	14.1%	1.16	5.69
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Denny Bautista ('10)	1.1	45	17.3%	12.7%	0.85	5.89
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*