Reynardo Cruz — OGILVIE

Reynardo Cruz P Dayton Dragons

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 165 lbs A+ peak 0.3 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION72 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 151143vR 135

ERA6.22

FIP6.22

K%15.3%

BB%19.6%

K-BB%-4.3%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 78 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL2525

CMD3030

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	11	6	38	169	56	20	2	55%	3.5	22.5%	14.8%	7.7%	1.6%	2.35	3.96	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	11	6	38	169	56	20	2	55%	3.5	33.1%	11.8%	21.3%	1.2%	2.35	2.42	—
2022	20	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	14	6	40	175	38	27	3	43%	2.9	16.1%	18.2%	-2.1%	2.5%	5.40	5.44	—
2022	20	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	14	6	40	175	38	27	3	43%	2.9	21.7%	15.4%	6.3%	1.7%	5.40	4.20	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	7	66	295	67	43	4	35%	3.3	16.3%	17.5%	-1.2%	1.7%	4.36	4.85	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	7	66	295	67	43	4	35%	3.3	16.3%	17.5%	-1.2%	1.7%	4.36	4.85	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	7	66	295	67	43	4	35%	3.3	22.7%	14.6%	8.1%	1.4%	4.36	3.81	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	16	16	72	324	75	51	10	100%	4.5	17.8%	18.1%	-0.3%	3.9%	5.65	6.01	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	16	16	72	324	75	51	10	100%	4.5	17.8%	18.1%	-0.3%	3.9%	5.65	6.01	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	CIN	16	16	72	324	75	51	10	100%	4.5	23.1%	15.7%	7.4%	3.1%	5.65	4.83	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	CIN	1	1	6	26	4	5	1	100%	6.1	15.3%	19.6%	-4.3%	2.8%	6.22	6.22	-0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	CIN	—	—	78	350	79	56	11	—	—	22.6%	16.0%	6.5%	3.1%	5.70	6.02	-1.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	CIN	12	12	71	300	50	51	9	100%	5.9	16.8%	17.1%	-0.3%	2.8%	5.89	5.79	-0.7
2028	26	MLB MLE	CIN	12	12	71	300	53	50	9	100%	5.9	17.6%	16.5%	1.1%	2.9%	5.70	5.65	-0.6
2029	27	MLB MLE	CIN	12	12	70	296	53	48	9	100%	5.8	17.9%	16.2%	1.7%	2.9%	5.62	5.62	-0.6
2030	28	MLB MLE	CIN	11	11	68	287	51	46	9	100%	6.2	17.9%	16.2%	1.7%	3.0%	5.64	5.67	-0.6
2031	29	MLB MLE	CIN	11	11	65	274	48	45	9	100%	5.9	17.7%	16.4%	1.3%	3.2%	5.74	5.80	-0.6
2027	25	MLB CTX	CIN	5	5	31	131	22	22	4	100%	6.2	16.8%	17.1%	-0.3%	2.8%	5.89	5.79	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	CIN	8	8	47	198	35	33	6	100%	5.9	17.6%	16.5%	1.1%	2.9%	5.70	5.65	-0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	CIN	9	9	54	228	41	37	7	100%	6.0	17.9%	16.2%	1.7%	2.9%	5.62	5.62	-0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	CIN	10	10	57	241	43	39	7	100%	5.7	17.9%	16.2%	1.7%	3.0%	5.64	5.67	-0.5
2031	29	MLB CTX	CIN	10	10	57	241	43	39	8	100%	5.7	17.7%	16.4%	1.3%	3.2%	5.74	5.80	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		41	41	246	1038	183	170	31	100%	6.0	17.7%	16.4%	1.2%	3.0%	5.70	5.32	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	149	138	25	100%	6.0	17.7%	16.4%	1.2%	3.0%	5.70	5.32	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		61	35	216	963	172	167	25	57%	3.5	17.9%	17.4%	0.5%	2.5%	4.62	5.19	-3.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	32	200	892	159	155	23	57%	3.5	17.9%	17.4%	0.5%	2.5%	4.62	5.19	-1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Reynardo Cruz (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.22	15.3%	19.6%	2.8%	—	5.69	17.4%	0.8%	212	-0.53	—	—	—
Andrew Thurman R 2016 · 6.31 FIP	24	SP-	6.31	14.4%	16.9%	4.2%	.291	2.59	16.8%	9.6%	25	-3.72	2.59	264	85
Mason Pelio R 2023 · 6.38 FIP	23	SP-	6.38	13.3%	17.4%	4.0%	.255	5.88	9.0%	-12.8%	26	-0.50	5.88	122	82
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	81
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	80
Holt Jones R 2023 · 5.06 FIP	24	SP-	5.06	16.1%	17.9%	1.9%	.285	4.01	21.7%	7.0%	161	-1.05	3.37	241	79
Boone Whiting R 2015 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP-	5.33	11.3%	13.9%	2.6%	.337	4.88	10.9%	4.8%	132	-0.45	4.88	227	78
Oscar Verdugo R 2015 · 6.33 FIP	25	SP-	6.33	10.5%	13.9%	4.3%	.241	5.78	10.8%	-1.8%	74	-0.55	5.01	144	77
Bryce Conley R 2019 · 5.40 FIP	24	SP-	5.40	17.0%	16.0%	3.1%	.227	4.28	17.4%	5.6%	142	-1.12	4.22	560	76
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	75
Will Childers R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	22	SP-	5.41	11.8%	12.1%	3.2%	.305	4.45	19.3%	8.7%	150	-0.96	3.60	209	75
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	73
Carlos Tavera R 2023 · 5.86 FIP	24	SP-	5.86	19.6%	17.3%	4.0%	.267	5.23	18.9%	5.6%	114	-0.63	3.91	263	73
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	247	73
Tyler Brashears R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	23	SW	5.47	12.1%	13.0%	3.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	156	73
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.16	23.1%	9.1%	200	-1.68	3.51	223	72
Drew Gagnon R 2015 · 5.56 FIP	25	SP-	5.56	11.6%	12.6%	3.4%	.313	4.02	20.4%	12.2%	311	-1.54	3.71	534	71
Ted Stuka R 2021 · 5.72 FIP	24	SW	5.72	12.4%	23.4%	1.3%	.262	6.22	15.9%	-13.1%	41	+0.50	5.36	105	71
Wirkin Estevez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	24	SW	5.39	10.7%	13.4%	2.7%	.316	4.46	12.3%	3.5%	179	-0.93	4.37	238	70
M.D. Johnson R 2021 · 5.30 FIP	24	SP	5.30	19.1%	17.3%	2.9%	.201	4.63	17.9%	7.9%	293	-0.67	3.52	395	70
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.41	25.9%	11.8%	106	-0.76	3.84	202	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	69	17.2%	17.0%	1.13	5.80
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91