Reynardo Cruz

P Dayton Dragons

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 165 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	20	ACIN	14	6	40	5.40	4.20	21.7%	15.4%	—	K 16.1% · BB 18.2% · FIP 5.44
2025	23	MIX2 levels	20	7	66	4.36	3.81	22.7%	14.6%	—	K 16.3% · BB 17.5% · FIP 4.85
2026	24	A+CIN	16	16	72	5.65	4.96	23.1%	15.7%	—	K 17.8% · BB 18.1% · FIP 6.01
2027PROJ	25	MLBCIN	—	—	0	6.37	6.37	16.0%	20.0%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBCIN	4	4	22	6.14	6.12	17.2%	18.9%	-0.2
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBCIN	5	5	28	6.02	6.02	17.6%	18.2%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control25Command30

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsJacob Meador (age 23) · Boone Whiting (age 25) · Oscar Verdugo (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 154146vR 138

ERA6.37

FIP6.37

K%16.0%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%-4.0%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL2525

CMD3030

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	11	6	38	169	56	20	2	55%	3.5	22.5%	14.8%	7.7%	1.6%	2.35	3.96	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	11	6	38	169	56	20	2	55%	3.5	33.1%	11.8%	21.3%	1.2%	2.35	2.42	—
2022	20	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	14	6	40	175	38	27	3	43%	2.9	16.1%	18.2%	-2.1%	2.5%	5.40	5.44	—
2022	20	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	14	6	40	175	38	27	3	43%	2.9	21.7%	15.4%	6.3%	1.7%	5.40	4.20	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	7	66	295	67	43	4	35%	3.3	16.3%	17.5%	-1.2%	1.7%	4.36	4.85	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	7	66	295	67	43	4	35%	3.3	16.3%	17.5%	-1.2%	1.7%	4.36	4.85	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	7	66	295	67	43	4	35%	3.3	22.7%	14.6%	8.1%	1.4%	4.36	3.81	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	16	16	72	324	75	51	10	100%	4.5	17.8%	18.1%	-0.3%	3.9%	5.65	6.01	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	16	16	72	324	75	51	10	100%	4.5	17.8%	18.1%	-0.3%	3.9%	5.65	6.01	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	16	16	72	324	75	51	10	100%	4.5	23.1%	15.7%	7.4%	3.1%	5.65	4.96	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	CIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.0%	20.0%	-4.0%	3.1%	6.37	6.37	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	CIN	9	9	52	220	38	42	7	100%	5.8	17.2%	18.9%	-1.7%	3.1%	6.14	6.12	-0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	CIN	7	7	45	190	33	35	6	100%	6.4	17.6%	18.2%	-0.6%	3.1%	6.02	6.02	-0.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	CIN	7	7	41	174	31	31	6	100%	5.9	17.8%	17.9%	-0.1%	3.2%	5.99	6.02	-0.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	CIN	6	6	38	162	29	29	5	100%	6.4	17.7%	17.9%	-0.3%	3.4%	6.05	6.11	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	CIN	4	4	22	93	16	18	3	100%	5.5	17.2%	18.9%	-1.7%	3.1%	6.14	6.12	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	CIN	5	5	28	118	21	22	4	100%	5.6	17.6%	18.2%	-0.6%	3.1%	6.02	6.02	-0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	CIN	5	5	31	131	23	23	4	100%	6.2	17.8%	17.9%	-0.1%	3.2%	5.99	6.02	-0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	CIN	5	5	31	131	23	23	4	100%	6.2	17.7%	17.9%	-0.3%	3.4%	6.05	6.11	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		19	19	113	476	84	87	15	100%	5.9	17.6%	18.2%	-0.6%	3.2%	6.04	5.69	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	149	154	27	100%	6.0	17.6%	18.2%	-0.6%	3.2%	6.04	5.69	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		61	35	216	963	172	167	25	57%	3.5	17.9%	17.4%	0.5%	2.5%	4.62	5.19	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	32	200	892	159	155	23	57%	3.5	17.9%	17.4%	0.5%	2.5%	4.62	5.19	-1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Dayton Dragons · 72 IPFIP 4.83 → 6.01 (+1.17)K% 23.1% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.15%	—	×0.770	17.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.74%	—	×1.150	18.10%
HR / BF /BF	3.09%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.86%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.83 → 6.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ADaytona Tortugas · 46 IPFIP 3.93 → 4.92 (+0.99)K% 21.1% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.05%	—	×0.740	15.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.35%	—	×1.180	16.94%
HR / BF /BF	1.44%	÷1.032	×1.300	1.81%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 106).

Result: FIP 3.93 → 4.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Reds · 20 IPFIP 3.39 → 4.67 (+1.28)K% 26.7% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.74%	—	×0.680	18.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.12%	—	×1.250	18.90%
HR / BF /BF	1.16%	÷1.252	×1.400	1.30%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 150).

Result: FIP 3.39 → 4.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ADaytona Tortugas · 40 IPFIP 4.16 → 5.44 (+1.27)K% 21.7% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.71%	—	×0.740	16.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.43%	—	×1.180	18.21%
HR / BF /BF	1.71%	÷0.883	×1.300	2.53%

Result: FIP 4.16 → 5.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKACL Reds · 38 IPFIP 2.45 → 3.96 (+1.51)K% 33.1% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.14%	—	×0.680	22.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.83%	—	×1.250	14.79%
HR / BF /BF	1.18%	÷1.026	×1.400	1.62%

Result: FIP 2.45 → 3.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Reynardo Cruz (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.37	16.0%	20.0%	3.1%	—	6.06	17.5%	-0.9%	138	-0.31	—	—	—
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	80
Boone Whiting R 2015 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP-	5.33	11.3%	13.9%	2.6%	.337	4.88	10.9%	4.8%	132	-0.45	4.88	227	78
Oscar Verdugo R 2015 · 6.33 FIP	25	SP-	6.33	10.5%	13.9%	4.3%	.241	5.78	10.8%	-1.8%	74	-0.55	5.01	144	77
Bryce Conley R 2019 · 5.40 FIP	24	SP-	5.40	17.0%	16.0%	3.1%	.227	4.28	17.4%	5.6%	142	-1.12	4.22	560	75
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	74
Deylen Miley R 2023 · 5.34 FIP	25	SP-	5.34	22.3%	17.5%	3.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.07	185	74
Drew Conover R 2024 · 6.25 FIP	23	SW	6.25	15.6%	29.8%	1.3%	.272	5.19	12.6%	-3.4%	106	-1.06	4.49	145	74
Octavio Acosta R 2016 · 5.42 FIP	25	SP-	5.42	13.8%	16.1%	2.6%	.328	4.03	16.2%	7.5%	245	-1.39	3.88	333	73
Joel Hanrahan R 2007 · 5.58 FIP	25	SP	5.58	17.4%	15.4%	3.6%	.318	3.06	27.8%	18.1%	218	-2.52	2.08	397	73
Joe Nathan R 2000 · 5.19 FIP	25	SP-	5.19	14.3%	13.8%	2.8%	.262	3.30	26.3%	16.8%	79	-1.89	1.25	929	73
Drew Gagnon R 2015 · 5.56 FIP	25	SP-	5.56	11.6%	12.6%	3.4%	.313	4.02	20.4%	12.2%	311	-1.54	3.71	534	71
Tyler Brashears R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	23	SW	5.47	12.1%	13.0%	3.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	156	71
Johnny Hellweg R 2013 · 5.63 FIP	24	SP	5.63	5.6%	16.0%	1.8%	.298	5.82	9.6%	-8.1%	82	+0.19	2.98	140	70
Jorge Sosa R 2002 · 5.77 FIP	25	SW	5.77	11.1%	12.4%	3.7%	.228	4.55	15.7%	5.5%	362	-1.22	4.06	773	70
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	70
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	69
Noah Song R 2023 · 6.06 FIP	26	SP	6.06	12.0%	13.2%	4.2%	.239	3.80	19.8%	8.3%	116	-2.26	3.68	138	68
Jake Bray R 2018 · 5.37 FIP	25	SP-	5.37	15.4%	11.2%	3.9%	.294	5.65	20.5%	7.7%	61	+0.28	2.51	198	68
David Whitehead R 2016 · 6.00 FIP	24	SW	6.00	10.7%	19.2%	2.5%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	4.35	217	67
Levi Stoudt R 2023 · 6.22 FIP	25	SP-	6.22	13.4%	12.1%	5.0%	.280	6.13	15.4%	4.5%	110	-0.09	4.35	395	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	49	17.1%	18.8%	1.23	6.14
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*