Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 15 | 82 | 337 | 86 | 37 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 19.9% | 12.5% | 7.4% | 2.8% | 3.31 | 4.56 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 15 | 82 | 337 | 86 | 37 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 25.5% | 11.0% | 14.5% | 2.4% | 3.31 | 3.63 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 111 | 471 | 103 | 32 | 13 | 100% | 4.4 | 17.9% | 7.4% | 10.6% | 3.4% | 4.70 | 4.37 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 111 | 471 | 103 | 32 | 13 | 100% | 4.4 | 21.9% | 6.8% | 15.1% | 2.8% | 4.70 | 3.63 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 21 | 93 | 439 | 67 | 58 | 21 | 72% | 3.2 | 13.7% | 13.8% | -0.1% | 4.7% | 6.60 | 6.29 | -1.1 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 21 | 93 | 439 | 67 | 58 | 21 | 72% | 3.2 | 15.3% | 13.2% | 2.1% | 4.8% | 6.60 | 6.48 | -1.3 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 11 | 85 | 382 | 73 | 44 | 21 | 32% | 2.5 | 16.4% | 12.2% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 5.72 | 6.56 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 11 | 85 | 382 | 73 | 44 | 21 | 32% | 2.5 | 19.1% | 11.5% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 5.72 | 6.15 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 0 | 29 | 127 | 21 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 13.5% | 13.2% | 0.2% | 3.3% | 6.14 | 5.47 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 0 | 29 | 127 | 21 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 16.5% | 11.0% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 6.14 | 4.87 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 17 | 2 | 23 | 85 | 23 | 8 | 0 | 12% | 1.3 | — | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | PHI | 28 | 0 | 29 | 123 | 22 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.9% | 11.6% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 5.06 | 5.58 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | PHI | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.9% | 11.6% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 5.06 | 5.58 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 52 | 208 | 45 | 22 | 5 | — | — | 21.7% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 2.3% | 2.85 | 3.14 | +0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 17.9% | 11.6% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 5.06 | 5.20 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 27 | 0 | 28 | 118 | 21 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.9% | 11.6% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 5.34 | 5.61 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 9 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.9% | 11.6% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 5.34 | 5.61 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 13 | 2 | 20 | 94 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 15% | 1.5 | 17.0% | 13.3% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 7.56 | 4.84 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 131 | 20 | 200 | 960 | 163 | 132 | 31 | 16% | 1.5 | 17.0% | 13.3% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 7.56 | 4.84 | +1.3 | ||
| Career | — | 141 | 74 | 422 | 1841 | 314 | 209 | 73 | 52% | 3.0 | 17.1% | 11.3% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 4.90 | 5.29 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 67 | 35 | 200 | 872 | 149 | 99 | 35 | 52% | 3.0 | 17.1% | 11.3% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 4.90 | 5.29 | +0.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Levi Stoudt (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.58 | 17.9% | 11.6% | 3.9% | — | 5.61 | 17.9% | 6.3% | 28 | +0.03 | — | — | — |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.49 | 15.9% | 7.4% | 5.1% | .244 | 5.53 | 11.2% | 2.3% | 115 | +0.04 | 4.54 | 224 | 74 |
| Ramon Delgado R 2027 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.73 | 13.8% | 5.9% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.45 | 11.2% | 7.2% | 74 | -0.28 | 4.45 | 135 | 73 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2026 · 6.03 FIP | 28 | SW | 6.03 | 17.0% | 10.1% | 5.6% | .289 | 4.41 | 8.3% | -7.5% | 10 | -1.62 | 3.92 | 233 | 73 |
| Nelson Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.72 | 19.2% | 8.2% | 4.0% | .311 | 5.88 | 16.9% | 4.6% | 74 | +1.16 | 3.33 | 258 | 73 |
| Bud Norris R 2028 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 72 |
| Josh Roeder R 2024 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.75 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 175 | 72 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2024 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 72 |
| Alex Caldera R 2027 · 5.56 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.56 | 10.4% | 13.1% | 3.1% | .333 | 4.61 | 11.9% | 0.8% | 84 | -0.95 | 4.61 | 120 | 71 |
| Orlando Rodriguez R 2025 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.53 | 13.7% | 10.6% | 2.3% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.50 | 119 | 70 |
| Jefry Rodriguez R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.06 | 19.4% | 13.5% | 3.4% | .287 | 4.47 | 19.8% | 6.8% | 64 | -0.59 | 3.21 | 578 | 70 |
| Jason García R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.64 | 17.7% | 13.5% | 2.4% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 356 | 69 |
| Chris Leroux R 2029 · 4.50 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.50 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .279 | 3.94 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.56 | 3.94 | 219 | 69 |
| Wily Peralta R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.78 | 17.9% | 11.9% | 3.1% | .333 | 4.69 | 19.4% | 6.9% | 110 | -0.09 | 4.02 | 748 | 68 |
| Kaleb Roper R 2024 · 5.54 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.54 | 17.3% | 11.8% | 4.4% | .398 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.54 | 146 | 68 |
| Aldo Montes R 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.65 | 12.4% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .322 | 4.41 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 75 | -0.24 | 4.41 | 210 | 68 |
| Mike Adams R 2025 · 5.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.26 | 17.1% | 11.2% | 4.0% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 109 | 68 |
| Bradin Hagens R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.85 | 14.9% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .341 | 5.33 | 13.2% | 0.6% | 66 | +0.48 | 3.78 | 254 | 68 |
| Lindsey Caughel R 2025 · 5.33 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.33 | 13.3% | 8.3% | 4.2% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.45 | 187 | 67 |
| Shay Schanaman R 2024 · 6.44 FIP | 26 | SW | 6.44 | 17.6% | 11.3% | 6.2% | .255 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 127 | 67 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.88 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.28 | 3.25 | 221 | 67 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 29 | 17.9% | 11.6% | 1.52 | 5.20 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Jharel Cotton ('22) | 4 | 58 | 19.8% | 9.2% | 1.59 | 4.50 |