Joe Barlow — OGILVIE

Joe Barlow P Round Rock Express

Age 30 RHP 6'2" / 210 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.88

FIP4.77

K%21.6%

BB%8.1%

K-BB%13.6%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5094.5

Whiff%

p6227.2%

p3019.2%

xwOBA vs

p100.360

SL-1.8

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	20	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	13	3	33	145	29	19	4	23%	2.5	13.6%	16.4%	-2.8%	3.9%	4.41	6.15	—
2016	20	ROK RAW	AZL Rangers	13	3	33	145	29	19	4	23%	2.5	20.0%	13.1%	6.9%	2.8%	4.41	4.66	—
2018	22	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	38	0	59	238	91	38	3	0%	1.6	28.3%	18.8%	9.5%	1.4%	1.68	3.84	—
2018	22	A RAW	Hickory Crawdads	38	0	59	238	91	38	3	0%	1.6	38.2%	16.0%	22.3%	1.3%	1.68	2.61	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	49	0	57	244	93	42	3	0%	1.2	30.8%	18.8%	12.0%	1.3%	3.16	3.60	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	49	0	57	244	93	42	3	0%	1.2	38.1%	17.2%	20.9%	1.2%	3.16	2.73	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	50	190	56	20	3	0%	1.0	27.6%	10.7%	16.9%	1.6%	1.98	2.99	+0.9
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	50	190	56	20	3	0%	1.0	29.5%	10.5%	18.9%	1.6%	1.98	2.84	+1.0
2022	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	42	172	35	16	5	0%	1.0	19.2%	8.9%	10.3%	3.2%	3.46	4.36	+0.1
2022	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	0	42	172	35	16	5	0%	1.0	20.3%	9.3%	11.0%	2.9%	3.46	4.13	+0.2
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	1	54	244	50	21	12	2%	1.2	18.3%	8.6%	9.7%	5.8%	5.37	5.85	-0.8
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	1	54	244	50	21	12	2%	1.2	18.3%	8.6%	9.7%	5.8%	5.37	5.85	-0.8
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	1	54	244	50	21	12	2%	1.2	20.5%	8.6%	11.9%	4.9%	5.37	5.32	-0.5
2024	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	0	15	73	18	9	5	0%	1.0	19.4%	12.0%	7.4%	9.0%	9.20	7.94	—
2024	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	0	15	73	18	9	5	0%	1.0	19.4%	12.0%	7.4%	9.0%	9.20	7.94	—
2024	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	0	15	73	18	9	5	0%	1.0	24.7%	12.3%	12.3%	6.8%	9.20	6.92	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	50	0	65	284	73	25	11	0%	1.3	21.3%	7.9%	13.4%	4.7%	4.57	4.86	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	50	0	65	284	73	25	11	0%	1.3	21.3%	7.9%	13.4%	4.7%	4.57	4.86	—
2025	29	AAA RAW	Round Rock Express	50	0	65	284	73	25	11	0%	1.3	25.7%	8.8%	16.9%	3.9%	4.57	4.21	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			79	0	74	301	61	27	9	0%	0.9	20.3%	9.0%	11.3%	3.0%	3.05	4.13	+0.4
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	30	MLB	TEX	5	0	5	21	5	2	1	0%	1.0	21.6%	8.1%	13.6%	3.8%	4.88	4.77	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	TEX	60	0	63	267	56	23	11	0%	1.1	21.1%	8.5%	12.6%	4.0%	4.91	4.96	-0.3
2028	32	MLB MLE	TEX	56	0	59	247	51	22	10	0%	1.0	20.4%	9.0%	11.5%	4.1%	5.04	5.16	-0.4
2027	31	MLB CTX	TEX	22	0	23	97	20	8	4	0%	1.0	21.1%	8.5%	12.6%	4.0%	4.91	4.96	-0.1
2028	32	MLB CTX	TEX	30	0	32	135	28	12	6	0%	1.1	20.4%	9.0%	11.5%	4.1%	5.04	5.16	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		132	0	129	536	110	48	19	0%	1.0	20.5%	8.9%	11.6%	3.5%	3.88	4.40	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		204	0	200	829	170	74	29	0%	1.0	20.5%	8.9%	11.6%	3.5%	3.88	4.40	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		298	4	374	1590	367	202	55	1%	1.3	23.1%	12.7%	10.4%	3.4%	3.71	4.65	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		160	2	200	851	196	108	29	1%	1.3	23.1%	12.7%	10.4%	3.4%	3.71	4.65	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joe Barlow (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.77	21.6%	8.1%	3.8%	—	5.06	20.8%	12.0%	122	+0.29	—	—	—
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	83
Alexi Ogando R 2015 · 5.11 FIP	31	SU	5.11	19.1%	9.4%	4.4%	.253	3.95	17.2%	8.0%	67	-1.16	3.79	132	82
David Hernandez R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	30	SU	4.40	22.9%	7.6%	4.1%	.287	3.17	24.9%	18.4%	192	-1.23	2.60	268	82
Rob Wooten R 2015 · 4.86 FIP	30	SU	4.86	19.3%	5.5%	4.9%	.299	3.87	17.7%	14.4%	111	-0.99	3.19	191	81
Joakim Soria R 2015 · 3.70 FIP	31	SU	3.70	23.5%	6.6%	3.2%	.258	2.91	26.6%	18.9%	183	-0.79	2.01	380	81
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	79
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	78
Erik Davis R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	30	SU	4.25	22.2%	11.1%	3.0%	.349	3.52	17.4%	8.5%	65	-0.73	3.05	227	77
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	77
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	4.12	186	77
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2015 · 5.21 FIP	30	SU	5.21	18.6%	7.6%	4.9%	.373	3.56	18.5%	9.3%	93	-1.65	3.50	170	77
Daniel Hudson R 2017 · 4.07 FIP	30	SU	4.07	24.4%	11.8%	2.8%	.301	4.01	24.1%	15.2%	140	-0.06	1.68	468	76
Drew Storen R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	29	SU	3.83	19.5%	7.3%	2.6%	.289	4.31	19.4%	8.4%	10	+0.48	2.36	172	76
Tanner Scheppers R 2017 · 4.86 FIP	30	SU	4.86	15.7%	6.7%	4.1%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	101	76
Will Harris R 2015 · 3.62 FIP	30	SU	3.62	24.6%	7.6%	3.0%	.190	2.50	28.0%	22.8%	166	-1.12	2.17	315	76
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	76
Blake Wood R 2016 · 3.76 FIP	30	SU	3.76	24.5%	10.6%	2.5%	.307	3.44	25.3%	16.0%	74	-0.32	2.92	210	75
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	75
Edwin Jackson R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	31	SU	3.77	17.5%	8.8%	1.9%	.244	4.71	17.6%	7.8%	377	+0.94	3.77	521	75
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	63	21.1%	8.5%	1.54	4.94
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50