Joe Barlow
P
Round Rock Express
Age 30
RHP
6'2" / 210 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 67 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130121vR 112
ERA5.03
FIP4.92
K%22.6%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%13.3%
ROS IP68
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5094.5
Whiff%
p6227.2%
K%
p3019.2%
xwOBA vs
p100.360
SL-1.8
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 20 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 13 | 3 | 33 | 145 | 29 | 19 | 4 | 23% | 2.5 | 13.6% | 16.4% | -2.8% | 3.9% | 4.41 | 6.15 | — |
| 2016 | 20 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 13 | 3 | 33 | 145 | 29 | 19 | 4 | 23% | 2.5 | 20.0% | 13.1% | 6.9% | 2.8% | 4.41 | 4.66 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A | Hickory Crawdads | 38 | 0 | 59 | 238 | 91 | 38 | 3 | 0% | 1.6 | 28.3% | 18.8% | 9.5% | 1.2% | 1.68 | 3.74 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A | Hickory Crawdads | 38 | 0 | 59 | 238 | 91 | 38 | 3 | 0% | 1.6 | 38.2% | 16.0% | 22.3% | 1.3% | 1.68 | 2.61 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 49 | 0 | 57 | 244 | 93 | 42 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 30.8% | 18.8% | 12.0% | 1.2% | 3.16 | 3.54 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 49 | 0 | 57 | 244 | 93 | 42 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 38.1% | 17.2% | 20.9% | 1.2% | 3.16 | 2.73 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 50 | 190 | 56 | 20 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.6% | 10.7% | 16.9% | 1.7% | 1.98 | 3.04 | +0.9 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 50 | 190 | 56 | 20 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.5% | 10.5% | 18.9% | 1.6% | 1.98 | 2.84 | +1.0 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 40 | 0 | 42 | 172 | 35 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.2% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 3.46 | 4.44 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 40 | 0 | 42 | 172 | 35 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.3% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 2.9% | 3.46 | 4.13 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 1 | 54 | 244 | 50 | 21 | 12 | 2% | 1.2 | 19.4% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 6.2% | 5.37 | 6.14 | -1.0 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 1 | 54 | 244 | 50 | 21 | 12 | 2% | 1.2 | 20.5% | 8.6% | 11.9% | 4.9% | 5.37 | 5.32 | -0.5 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 15 | 0 | 15 | 73 | 18 | 9 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.5% | 14.0% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 9.20 | 8.02 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 15 | 0 | 15 | 73 | 18 | 9 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.7% | 12.3% | 12.3% | 6.8% | 9.20 | 6.92 | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 50 | 0 | 65 | 284 | 73 | 25 | 11 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 13.4% | 5.2% | 4.57 | 5.19 | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 50 | 0 | 65 | 284 | 73 | 25 | 11 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.7% | 8.8% | 16.9% | 3.9% | 4.57 | 4.21 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 65 | 27 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 9.3% | 13.3% | 4.0% | 5.03 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | TEX | 60 | 0 | 63 | 267 | 59 | 26 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 9.6% | 12.3% | 4.1% | 5.05 | 5.09 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | TEX | 56 | 0 | 59 | 247 | 53 | 25 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.2% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 4.3% | 5.17 | 5.29 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | TEX | 22 | 0 | 23 | 97 | 21 | 9 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 9.6% | 12.3% | 4.1% | 5.05 | 5.09 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | TEX | 30 | 0 | 32 | 135 | 29 | 14 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 4.3% | 5.17 | 5.29 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 132 | 0 | 129 | 536 | 111 | 50 | 19 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 3.5% | 3.94 | 4.46 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 204 | 0 | 200 | 829 | 172 | 77 | 29 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 3.5% | 3.94 | 4.46 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 298 | 4 | 374 | 1590 | 374 | 211 | 56 | 1% | 1.3 | 23.5% | 13.3% | 10.3% | 3.6% | 3.71 | 4.74 | +2.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 160 | 2 | 200 | 851 | 200 | 113 | 30 | 1% | 1.3 | 23.5% | 13.3% | 10.3% | 3.6% | 3.71 | 4.74 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joe Barlow (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.92 | 22.6% | 9.3% | 4.0% | — | 5.19 | 21.6% | 11.8% | 122 | +0.27 | — | — | — |
| Alexi Ogando R 2027 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 83 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.97 | 24.4% | 11.8% | 2.6% | .301 | 4.06 | 24.1% | 15.2% | 140 | +0.09 | 1.74 | 468 | 81 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 81 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 81 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.18 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .349 | 3.44 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.74 | 3.07 | 227 | 79 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 79 |
| Adam Warren R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 23.3% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .288 | 4.75 | 20.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +0.99 | 2.71 | 392 | 77 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.79 | 24.5% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .307 | 3.52 | 25.3% | 16.0% | 74 | -0.27 | 3.05 | 210 | 77 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.81 | 18.6% | 7.6% | 4.2% | .373 | 3.58 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 93 | -1.23 | 3.37 | 170 | 77 |
| Drew Storen R 2025 · 3.86 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.86 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .289 | 4.49 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.63 | 2.36 | 172 | 76 |
| Angel Castro R 2028 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 76 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.12 | 18.2% | 6.3% | 3.2% | .265 | 3.74 | 17.8% | 10.3% | 131 | -0.38 | 3.53 | 365 | 76 |
| AJ Ramos R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.86 | 27.9% | 12.8% | 2.7% | .288 | 5.03 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 20 | +1.17 | 2.55 | 266 | 76 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.16 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.4% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 253 | 76 |
| Ryan Tepera R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.90 | 25.9% | 8.7% | 3.4% | .282 | 3.17 | 28.4% | 19.9% | 104 | -0.73 | 2.33 | 445 | 76 |
| Rob Wooten R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.26 | 19.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | .299 | 3.74 | 17.7% | 14.4% | 111 | -1.52 | 3.19 | 191 | 76 |
| Jean Machi R 2029 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 75 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 75 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.9% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 160 | 75 |
| Tommy Nance R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.85 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .228 | 3.40 | 24.3% | 16.7% | 99 | -0.45 | 2.23 | 367 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 63 | 21.9% | 9.6% | 1.58 | 5.08 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |