Joe Barlow

P Round Rock Express

Age 31 RHP 6'2" / 210 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	27	MIX2 levels	45	1	54	5.37	5.32	20.5%	8.6%	-0.5	K 18.9% · BB 8.6% · FIP 5.79
2024	28	MIX3 levels	15	0	15	9.20	6.92	24.7%	12.3%	—	K 20.1% · BB 12.0% · FIP 7.88
2025	29	AAATEX	50	0	65	4.57	4.21	25.7%	8.8%	—	K 22.1% · BB 7.9% · FIP 4.80
2026	30	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	31	MLBTEX	6	0	6	4.54	4.50	22.5%	8.0%	0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	32	MLBTEX	18	0	19	4.65	4.74	21.8%	8.5%	-0.0
2029PROJ55% MLB	33	MLBTEX	22	0	23	4.84	4.99	21.1%	9.0%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.5 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2022

FB Velo50

K%30

xwOBA vs10

CompsJoe Nelson (age 31) · Mike Broadway (age 31) · Mark Serrano (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 102

ERA4.54

FIP4.50

K%22.5%

BB%8.0%

K-BB%14.5%

Proj IP65

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5094.5

Whiff%

p6227.2%

p3019.2%

xwOBA vs

p100.360

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	20	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	13	3	33	145	29	19	4	23%	2.5	13.6%	16.4%	-2.8%	3.9%	4.41	6.15	—
2016	20	ROK RAW	AZL Rangers	13	3	33	145	29	19	4	23%	2.5	20.0%	13.1%	6.9%	2.8%	4.41	4.66	—
2018	22	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	38	0	59	238	91	38	3	0%	1.6	28.3%	18.8%	9.5%	1.4%	1.68	3.84	—
2018	22	A RAW	Hickory Crawdads	38	0	59	238	91	38	3	0%	1.6	38.2%	16.0%	22.3%	1.3%	1.68	2.61	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	49	0	57	244	93	42	3	0%	1.2	30.8%	18.8%	12.0%	1.3%	3.16	3.60	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	49	0	57	244	93	42	3	0%	1.2	38.1%	17.2%	20.9%	1.2%	3.16	2.73	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	50	190	56	20	3	0%	1.0	27.6%	10.7%	16.9%	1.6%	1.98	2.99	+0.9
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	50	190	56	20	3	0%	1.0	29.5%	10.5%	18.9%	1.6%	1.98	2.84	+1.0
2022	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	42	172	35	16	5	0%	1.0	19.2%	8.9%	10.3%	3.2%	3.46	4.36	+0.1
2022	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	0	42	172	35	16	5	0%	1.0	20.3%	9.3%	11.0%	2.9%	3.46	4.13	+0.2
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	1	54	244	50	21	12	2%	1.2	18.9%	8.6%	10.4%	5.8%	5.37	5.79	-0.8
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	1	54	244	50	21	12	2%	1.2	20.5%	8.6%	11.9%	4.9%	5.37	5.32	-0.5
2024	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	0	15	73	18	9	5	0%	1.0	20.1%	12.0%	8.1%	9.0%	9.20	7.88	—
2024	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	0	15	73	18	9	5	0%	1.0	20.1%	12.0%	8.1%	9.0%	9.20	7.88	—
2024	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	0	15	73	18	9	5	0%	1.0	24.7%	12.3%	12.3%	6.8%	9.20	6.92	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	50	0	65	284	73	25	11	0%	1.3	22.1%	7.9%	14.2%	4.7%	4.57	4.80	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	50	0	65	284	73	25	11	0%	1.3	22.1%	7.9%	14.2%	4.7%	4.57	4.80	—
2025	29	AAA RAW	Round Rock Express	50	0	65	284	73	25	11	0%	1.3	25.7%	8.8%	16.9%	3.9%	4.57	4.21	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			79	0	74	301	61	27	9	0%	0.9	20.3%	9.0%	11.3%	3.0%	3.05	4.13	+0.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	TEX	6	0	6	25	6	2	1	0%	1.0	22.5%	8.0%	14.5%	3.5%	4.54	4.50	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	TEX	49	0	52	218	48	19	8	0%	1.1	21.8%	8.5%	13.3%	3.7%	4.65	4.74	-0.1
2029	33	MLB MLE	TEX	40	0	42	177	37	16	7	0%	1.1	21.1%	9.0%	12.1%	3.9%	4.84	4.99	-0.2
2028	32	MLB CTX	TEX	18	0	19	80	18	7	3	0%	1.1	21.8%	8.5%	13.3%	3.7%	4.65	4.74	-0.0
2029	33	MLB CTX	TEX	22	0	23	97	20	9	4	0%	1.0	21.1%	9.0%	12.1%	3.9%	4.84	4.99	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		119	0	116	479	99	43	16	0%	1.0	20.7%	8.9%	11.8%	3.3%	3.67	4.29	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		206	0	200	827	171	74	28	0%	1.0	20.7%	8.9%	11.8%	3.3%	3.67	4.29	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		298	4	374	1590	371	202	55	1%	1.3	23.4%	12.7%	10.6%	3.4%	3.71	4.62	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		160	2	200	851	199	108	29	1%	1.3	23.4%	12.7%	10.6%	3.4%	3.71	4.62	+0.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAARound Rock Express · 65 IPFIP 4.17 → 4.80 (+0.63)K% 25.7% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.70%	—	×0.860	22.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.80%	—	×0.900	7.92%
HR / BF /BF	3.87%	÷0.913	×1.100	4.66%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).

Result: FIP 4.17 → 4.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAACharlotte Knights · 12 IPFIP 7.39 → 7.88 (+0.49)K% 23.3% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.33%	—	×0.860	20.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.33%	—	×0.900	12.00%
HR / BF /BF	8.33%	÷1.016	×1.100	9.02%

Result: FIP 7.39 → 7.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 44 IPFIP 5.19 → 5.79 (+0.60)K% 22.0% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.00%	—	×0.860	18.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.50%	—	×0.900	8.55%
HR / BF /BF	5.00%	÷0.942	×1.100	5.84%

Result: FIP 5.19 → 5.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAARound Rock Express · 21 IPFIP 1.98 → 2.52 (+0.54)K% 36.7% → 32.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.71%	—	×0.880	32.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.13%	—	×1.050	10.63%
HR / BF /BF	1.27%	÷0.958	×1.100	1.45%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 1.98 → 2.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAANashville Sounds · 17 IPFIP 4.54 → 4.98 (+0.44)K% 23.4% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.40%	—	×0.880	20.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	22.34%	—	×1.050	23.46%
HR / BF /BF	1.06%	÷0.998	×1.100	1.17%

Result: FIP 4.54 → 4.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Down East Wood Ducks · 24 IPFIP 1.74 → 3.01 (+1.28)K% 47.3% → 36.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	47.31%	—	×0.770	36.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.13%	—	×1.150	18.55%
HR / BF /BF	1.08%	÷1.152	×1.250	1.17%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 130).

Result: FIP 1.74 → 3.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 16 IPFIP 1.40 → 2.28 (+0.89)K% 47.4% → 38.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	47.37%	—	×0.810	38.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.53%	—	×1.100	11.58%
HR / BF /BF	1.75%	÷1.208	×1.200	1.74%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 142).

Result: FIP 1.40 → 2.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AHickory Crawdads · 59 IPFIP 2.59 → 3.84 (+1.26)K% 38.2% → 28.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.24%	—	×0.740	28.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.97%	—	×1.180	18.84%
HR / BF /BF	1.26%	÷1.204	×1.300	1.36%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 141).

Result: FIP 2.59 → 3.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joe Barlow (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.50	22.5%	8.0%	3.5%	—	4.85	21.5%	12.8%	94	+0.35	—	—	—
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	81
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	81
Mark Serrano R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	21.9%	6.4%	2.7%	.240	5.25	20.2%	12.3%	42	+1.69	3.16	120	79
Ryan Brasier R 2019 · 4.12 FIP	31	SU	4.12	25.3%	8.3%	3.8%	.278	3.56	24.3%	18.2%	99	-0.56	2.31	426	78
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.51	246	77
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	77
Spencer Bivens R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	30	SU	4.07	18.0%	5.8%	3.2%	.265	3.88	18.2%	10.9%	157	-0.19	3.52	391	77
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	76
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	75
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	335	75
Matt Bush R 2017 · 3.60 FIP	31	SU	3.60	24.2%	7.9%	2.8%	.321	4.72	17.6%	4.6%	23	+1.12	2.87	249	75
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	75
Gerardo Sanchez R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	30	SU	3.58	20.5%	5.4%	2.8%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.65	137	74
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	74
Brian Sanches R 2010 · 4.24 FIP	31	SU	4.24	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.217	4.35	19.6%	8.5%	62	+0.11	3.39	229	74
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2000 · 3.93 FIP	32	SU	3.93	29.4%	9.8%	3.8%	.212	2.88	24.9%	19.3%	161	-1.05	2.76	223	74
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	73
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	73
Aaron Barrett R 2019 · 3.81 FIP	31	SU	3.81	23.0%	8.1%	3.0%	.246	4.56	19.9%	6.4%	38	+0.75	1.86	160	73
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	2.60	292	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	46	21.4%	8.6%	1.34	4.15
Shawn Tolleson ('16)	1.1	54	23.1%	8.3%	1.28	3.92
John Johnstone ('00)	1.4	56	19.4%	9.5%	1.23	4.01
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Gary Wayne ('89-'94, 2 WAR*)	1.2	62	19.9%*	9.4%*	1.05*	3.88*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*