Johan Moreno

P San Antonio Missions

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 180 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	MIX2 levels	21	5	52	5.40	5.15	18.0%	14.0%	—	K 13.2% · BB 16.7% · FIP 6.25
2025	22	MIX3 levels	37	2	79	5.01	3.26	27.9%	11.3%	—	K 20.1% · BB 13.1% · FIP 4.06
2026	23	MIX2 levels	45	0	55	6.67	4.58	26.2%	14.5%	—	K 21.6% · BB 12.2% · FIP 4.80
2027PROJ	24	MLBSD	1	0	1	5.20	5.20	20.3%	13.8%	-0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBSD	23	0	24	5.02	4.96	21.0%	12.5%	-0.1
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBSD	30	0	32	4.92	4.89	21.4%	12.2%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control35Command45

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 0.9, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsHayden Snelsire (age 23) · Grayson Thurman (age 24) · Brandon Johnson (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.20

FIP5.20

K%20.3%

BB%13.8%

K-BB%6.5%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3535

CMD4545

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	20	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	15	10	49	197	51	13	1	67%	3.3	17.6%	8.2%	9.4%	0.8%	2.92	3.09	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	15	10	49	197	51	13	1	67%	3.3	25.9%	6.6%	19.3%	0.5%	2.92	2.09	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	5	52	250	45	35	7	24%	2.5	13.2%	16.7%	-3.6%	3.9%	5.40	6.25	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	5	52	250	45	35	7	24%	2.5	13.2%	16.7%	-3.6%	3.9%	5.40	6.25	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	5	52	250	45	35	7	24%	2.5	18.0%	14.0%	4.0%	2.8%	5.40	5.15	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	37	2	79	355	99	40	7	5%	2.1	20.1%	13.1%	7.0%	1.8%	5.01	4.06	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	37	2	79	355	99	40	7	5%	2.1	20.1%	13.1%	7.0%	1.8%	5.01	4.06	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	37	2	79	355	99	40	7	5%	2.1	27.9%	11.3%	16.6%	2.0%	5.01	3.26	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	55	248	65	36	8	0%	1.2	21.6%	12.2%	9.4%	3.6%	6.67	4.80	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	55	248	65	36	8	0%	1.2	21.6%	12.2%	9.4%	3.6%	6.67	4.80	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	55	248	65	36	8	0%	1.2	26.2%	14.5%	11.7%	3.2%	6.67	4.58	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	SD	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	20.3%	13.8%	6.5%	3.1%	5.20	5.20	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	SD	51	0	54	228	48	28	7	0%	1.1	21.0%	12.5%	8.5%	3.0%	5.02	4.96	-0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	SD	46	0	48	203	43	25	6	0%	1.0	21.4%	12.2%	9.2%	3.0%	4.92	4.89	-0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	SD	43	0	45	191	41	23	6	0%	1.1	21.5%	12.1%	9.3%	3.1%	4.89	4.90	-0.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	SD	40	0	42	179	38	22	6	0%	1.1	21.4%	12.2%	9.2%	3.2%	4.93	4.96	-0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	SD	38	0	39	166	35	21	6	0%	1.0	21.1%	12.4%	8.7%	3.3%	5.03	5.10	-0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	SD	34	0	36	151	31	19	5	0%	1.1	20.8%	12.7%	8.0%	3.5%	5.18	5.27	-0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	SD	23	0	24	101	21	13	3	0%	1.0	21.0%	12.5%	8.5%	3.0%	5.02	4.96	-0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	SD	30	0	32	135	29	16	4	0%	1.1	21.4%	12.2%	9.2%	3.0%	4.92	4.89	-0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	SD	33	0	35	148	32	18	5	0%	1.1	21.5%	12.1%	9.3%	3.1%	4.89	4.90	-0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	SD	34	0	36	152	32	19	5	0%	1.1	21.4%	12.2%	9.2%	3.2%	4.93	4.96	-0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	SD	33	0	35	148	31	18	5	0%	1.1	21.1%	12.4%	8.7%	3.3%	5.03	5.10	-0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	SD	30	0	32	135	28	17	5	0%	1.1	20.8%	12.7%	8.0%	3.5%	5.18	5.27	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		184	0	193	817	173	101	26	0%	1.1	21.2%	12.4%	8.8%	3.2%	4.99	4.63	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	179	104	27	0%	1.1	21.2%	12.4%	8.8%	3.2%	4.99	4.63	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		118	17	235	1050	192	135	27	14%	2.0	18.3%	12.8%	5.5%	2.5%	5.05	4.58	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		100	14	200	892	163	115	23	14%	2.0	18.3%	12.8%	5.5%	2.5%	5.05	4.58	-1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AASan Antonio Missions · 46 IPFIP 3.91 → 4.80 (+0.90)K% 26.6% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.63%	—	×0.810	21.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.06%	—	×1.100	12.16%
HR / BF /BF	3.02%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.62%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.91 → 4.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 9 IPFIP 6.89 → 7.04 (+0.15)K% 24.5% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.49%	—	×0.860	21.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	28.57%	—	×0.900	25.71%
HR / BF /BF	4.08%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.49%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 6.89 → 7.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ALake Elsinore Storm · 68 IPFIP 2.93 → 4.06 (+1.13)K% 27.1% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.12%	—	×0.740	20.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×1.180	13.11%
HR / BF /BF	1.31%	÷0.936	×1.300	1.82%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 87).

Result: FIP 2.93 → 4.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 7 IPFIP 5.21 → 7.24 (+2.03)K% 35.3% → 27.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.29%	—	×0.770	27.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.71%	—	×1.150	16.91%
HR / BF /BF	5.88%	÷0.941	×1.250	7.81%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 5.21 → 7.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ALake Elsinore Storm · 42 IPFIP 4.92 → 6.25 (+1.34)K% 19.0% → 14.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.00%	—	×0.740	14.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.00%	—	×1.180	16.52%
HR / BF /BF	3.00%	÷0.953	×1.300	4.09%

Result: FIP 4.92 → 6.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Padres · 10 IPFIP 4.79 → 6.24 (+1.45)K% 14.0% → 9.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.00%	—	×0.680	9.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.00%	—	×1.250	17.50%
HR / BF /BF	2.00%	÷0.892	×1.400	3.14%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 78).

Result: FIP 4.79 → 6.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Padres · 49 IPFIP 2.03 → 3.09 (+1.06)K% 25.9% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.89%	—	×0.680	17.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.60%	—	×1.250	8.25%
HR / BF /BF	0.51%	÷0.912	×1.400	0.78%

Result: FIP 2.03 → 3.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Johan Moreno (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.20	20.3%	13.8%	3.1%	—	4.92	21.3%	9.0%	147	-0.28	—	—	—
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	90
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	89
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.47	22.1%	12.1%	189	-0.47	3.35	250	88
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.29	16.7%	9.8%	248	+0.82	4.47	303	88
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	88
Josh Harlow R 2024 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	13.5%	3.5%	.266	5.73	17.1%	-4.2%	51	+0.56	5.17	107	88
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	88
David Trexler R 2015 · 4.62 FIP	24	SU	4.62	17.7%	13.4%	2.4%	.313	4.44	18.3%	4.8%	31	-0.18	4.44	100	88
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.78	21.8%	10.2%	115	-0.60	4.73	183	87
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	87
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	87
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	87
Jacob Webb R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SU	4.55	19.8%	15.3%	2.1%	.283	4.54	19.0%	8.4%	155	-0.01	3.33	268	86
Jake Gilbert R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	24	SU	4.14	22.1%	15.2%	1.8%	.314	4.65	18.2%	2.0%	53	+0.51	4.14	103	86
Marc Brakeman R 2018 · 4.67 FIP	24	SU	4.67	18.3%	13.7%	2.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	156	86
Matt Lollis R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	18.5%	12.2%	2.7%	.237	4.95	19.2%	4.7%	56	+0.39	4.56	120	85
Ryan Ledbetter R 2016 · 4.76 FIP	24	SU	4.76	18.5%	12.3%	3.0%	.338	—	—	—	—	—	4.76	124	85
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	85
Pat Light R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	20.9%	14.5%	2.1%	.270	4.37	16.4%	2.8%	110	+0.03	4.10	172	85
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	85

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	46	21.0%	12.6%	1.22	5.03
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43