Johan Moreno — OGILVIE

Johan Moreno P San Antonio Missions

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 180 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION54 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.36

FIP5.36

K%18.2%

BB%14.6%

K-BB%3.7%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3535

CMD4545

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	20	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	15	10	49	197	51	13	1	67%	3.3	17.6%	8.2%	9.4%	0.8%	2.92	3.09	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	15	10	49	197	51	13	1	67%	3.3	17.6%	8.2%	9.4%	0.8%	2.92	3.09	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	15	10	49	197	51	13	1	67%	3.3	25.9%	6.6%	19.3%	0.5%	2.92	2.09	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	5	52	250	45	35	7	24%	2.5	13.2%	16.7%	-3.6%	3.9%	5.40	6.25	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	5	52	250	45	35	7	24%	2.5	13.2%	16.7%	-3.6%	3.9%	5.40	6.25	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	5	52	250	45	35	7	24%	2.5	18.0%	14.0%	4.0%	2.8%	5.40	5.15	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	37	2	79	355	99	40	7	5%	2.1	20.1%	13.1%	7.0%	1.8%	5.01	4.06	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	37	2	79	355	99	40	7	5%	2.1	20.1%	13.1%	7.0%	1.8%	5.01	4.06	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	37	2	79	355	99	40	7	5%	2.1	27.9%	11.3%	16.6%	2.0%	5.01	3.26	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	44	0	54	245	64	36	8	0%	1.2	21.5%	12.3%	9.1%	3.7%	6.79	4.87	—
YTD	23	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	44	0	54	245	64	36	8	0%	1.2	21.5%	12.3%	9.1%	3.7%	6.79	4.87	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AA RAW	SD	35	0	45	196	52	22	6	0%	1.3	26.5%	11.2%	15.3%	3.1%	4.96	3.96	—
2026	23	AAA RAW	SD	9	0	9	49	12	14	2	0%	1.0	24.5%	28.6%	-4.1%	4.1%	16.00	6.89	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	SD	5	0	6	24	4	3	1	0%	1.1	18.2%	14.6%	3.7%	2.9%	5.36	5.36	-0.1
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	SD	—	—	60	269	68	39	9	—	—	25.4%	14.7%	10.7%	3.2%	6.66	4.91	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	SD	69	0	73	308	59	40	9	0%	1.1	19.3%	12.9%	6.4%	2.9%	5.14	5.06	-0.4
2028	25	MLB MLE	SD	70	0	74	312	62	37	9	0%	1.1	20.0%	11.9%	8.1%	2.8%	4.95	4.86	-0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	SD	70	0	74	312	63	37	9	0%	1.1	20.3%	11.7%	8.6%	2.9%	4.86	4.82	-0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	SD	69	0	73	307	63	36	9	0%	1.1	20.4%	11.8%	8.7%	2.9%	4.84	4.84	-0.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	SD	67	0	70	298	60	35	9	0%	1.1	20.3%	11.9%	8.4%	3.0%	4.89	4.93	-0.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	SD	64	0	67	284	57	34	9	0%	1.1	20.1%	12.1%	7.9%	3.2%	4.99	5.06	-0.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	SD	60	0	63	267	53	33	9	0%	1.1	19.7%	12.4%	7.3%	3.4%	5.14	5.23	-0.5
2027	24	MLB CTX	SD	30	0	32	135	26	17	4	0%	1.1	19.3%	12.9%	6.4%	2.9%	5.14	5.06	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	SD	47	0	49	207	41	25	6	0%	1.0	20.0%	11.9%	8.1%	2.8%	4.95	4.86	-0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	SD	56	0	59	249	51	29	7	0%	1.1	20.3%	11.7%	8.6%	2.9%	4.86	4.82	-0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	SD	59	0	62	262	53	31	8	0%	1.1	20.4%	11.8%	8.7%	2.9%	4.84	4.84	-0.2
2031	28	MLB CTX	SD	60	0	63	266	54	32	8	0%	1.1	20.3%	11.9%	8.4%	3.0%	4.89	4.93	-0.3
2032	29	MLB CTX	SD	58	0	61	258	52	31	8	0%	1.1	20.1%	12.1%	7.9%	3.2%	4.99	5.06	-0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	SD	55	0	58	245	48	30	8	0%	1.1	19.7%	12.4%	7.3%	3.4%	5.14	5.23	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		366	0	385	1624	326	196	49	0%	1.1	20.1%	12.1%	8.0%	3.0%	4.96	4.59	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	170	102	25	0%	1.1	20.1%	12.1%	8.0%	3.0%	4.96	4.59	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		117	17	234	1047	191	135	27	15%	2.0	18.3%	12.9%	5.4%	2.6%	5.07	4.59	-2.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		100	15	200	894	163	115	23	15%	2.0	18.3%	12.9%	5.4%	2.6%	5.07	4.59	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Johan Moreno (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.36	18.2%	14.6%	2.9%	—	4.91	19.9%	7.7%	220	-0.45	—	—	—
Jhonny Polanco R 2015 · 4.75 FIP	23	SW	4.75	18.9%	14.2%	2.6%	.283	4.06	21.3%	5.7%	48	-0.69	4.06	116	93
Alaska Abney R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.301	3.89	17.4%	7.9%	104	-1.03	3.38	207	90
David Trexler R 2015 · 4.62 FIP	24	SU	4.62	17.7%	13.4%	2.4%	.313	4.44	18.3%	4.8%	31	-0.18	4.44	100	90
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	90
Ben Hecht R 2018 · 4.39 FIP	23	SU	4.39	18.3%	14.4%	1.9%	.265	4.51	22.7%	9.8%	58	+0.12	4.39	155	89
Cole Percival R 2022 · 5.21 FIP	23	SU	5.21	15.4%	14.5%	2.9%	.297	4.27	17.9%	5.9%	182	-0.94	3.58	327	89
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	89
Tayler Scott R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	23	SU	4.48	16.7%	12.7%	2.1%	.309	4.09	17.9%	6.2%	162	-0.39	3.22	528	88
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	88
Kieran Lovegrove R 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.9%	12.6%	3.2%	.273	4.46	19.3%	4.5%	76	-0.46	3.79	215	88
Ocean Gabonia R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SU	5.04	15.4%	14.6%	2.5%	.283	3.29	19.1%	10.9%	91	-1.75	2.79	144	88
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	88
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	88
Jhondaniel Medina R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	23	SU	4.54	19.3%	13.9%	2.4%	.261	5.25	19.3%	4.4%	35	+0.71	4.39	167	87
Sal Biasi R 2019 · 5.22 FIP	23	SU	5.22	20.1%	15.8%	3.3%	.295	7.66	15.3%	-0.2%	23	+2.44	4.68	188	87
Bladimir Matos R 2017 · 5.02 FIP	23	SU	5.02	18.8%	13.7%	3.2%	.301	6.99	14.4%	-7.0%	13	+1.97	3.88	143	87
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.76	23.1%	12.3%	156	-0.79	3.23	254	87
Stefan Raeth R 2023 · 4.62 FIP	22	SU	4.62	18.0%	15.4%	2.0%	.309	4.73	17.5%	8.3%	124	+0.11	4.51	173	86
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	86
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	86

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	69	19.8%	12.4%	1.15	5.01
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10