Brandon Johnson

P Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 28 RHP 6'0" / 195 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	45	0	55	4.23	2.36	31.6%	8.5%	—	K 25.0% · BB 9.5% · FIP 3.35
2025	26	MIX2 levels	54	2	72	4.88	5.07	23.7%	10.1%	—	K 19.9% · BB 9.5% · FIP 5.55
2026	27	MIX2 levels	54	1	71	4.97	3.96	24.9%	13.3%	—	K 22.2% · BB 11.3% · FIP 4.23
2027PROJ	28	MLBKC	1	0	1	5.15	5.15	19.9%	11.6%	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBKC	15	0	16	5.14	5.19	20.0%	11.5%	-0.1
2029PROJ51% MLB	30	MLBKC	21	0	22	5.21	5.30	19.9%	11.7%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control45Command40

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsBrandon Cunniff (age 28) · Tyler Walker (age 28) · Spencer Bivens (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.15

FIP5.15

K%19.9%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%8.4%

Proj IP69

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	0	6	27	5	3	1	0%	1.2	18.5%	11.1%	7.4%	3.7%	7.50	4.98	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	0	6	27	5	3	1	0%	1.2	18.5%	11.1%	7.4%	3.7%	7.50	5.10	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	40	0	61	275	80	34	8	0%	1.5	22.4%	14.2%	8.2%	3.5%	5.04	4.94	—
2023	24	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	40	0	61	275	80	34	8	0%	1.5	29.1%	12.4%	16.7%	2.9%	5.04	3.86	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	55	247	78	21	4	0%	1.2	25.0%	9.5%	15.5%	2.1%	4.23	3.35	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	55	247	78	21	4	0%	1.2	25.0%	9.5%	15.5%	2.1%	4.23	3.35	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	55	247	78	21	4	0%	1.2	31.6%	8.5%	23.1%	1.6%	4.23	2.36	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	2	72	308	73	31	15	4%	1.3	19.9%	9.5%	10.4%	5.3%	4.88	5.55	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	2	72	308	73	31	15	4%	1.3	19.9%	9.5%	10.4%	5.3%	4.88	5.55	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	2	72	308	73	31	15	4%	1.3	23.7%	10.1%	13.6%	4.9%	4.88	5.07	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	1	71	301	75	40	7	2%	1.3	22.2%	11.3%	10.8%	2.9%	4.97	4.23	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	1	71	301	75	40	7	2%	1.3	22.2%	11.3%	10.8%	2.9%	4.97	4.23	—
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	1	71	301	75	40	7	2%	1.3	24.9%	13.3%	11.6%	2.3%	4.97	3.96	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	KC	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	19.9%	11.6%	8.4%	3.4%	5.15	5.15	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	KC	50	0	52	220	44	25	8	0%	1.0	20.0%	11.5%	8.5%	3.5%	5.14	5.19	-0.4
2029	30	MLB MLE	KC	41	0	43	182	36	21	7	0%	1.1	19.9%	11.7%	8.3%	3.7%	5.21	5.30	-0.4
2028	29	MLB CTX	KC	15	0	16	68	14	8	2	0%	1.1	20.0%	11.5%	8.5%	3.5%	5.14	5.19	-0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	KC	21	0	22	93	19	11	3	0%	1.0	19.9%	11.7%	8.3%	3.7%	5.21	5.30	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		37	0	38	162	32	19	6	0%	1.0	20.0%	11.6%	8.4%	3.6%	5.18	4.88	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	166	99	31	0%	1.1	20.0%	11.6%	8.4%	3.6%	5.18	4.88	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		198	3	265	1158	257	129	41	2%	1.3	22.2%	11.1%	11.0%	3.5%	4.86	4.58	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		150	2	200	875	194	98	31	2%	1.3	22.2%	11.1%	11.0%	3.5%	4.86	4.58	-1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 62 IPFIP 3.40 → 4.23 (+0.83)K% 27.4% → 22.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.38%	—	×0.810	22.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.32%	—	×1.100	11.35%
HR / BF /BF	2.38%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.86%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.40 → 4.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 9 IPFIP 6.81 → 6.70 (−0.11)K% 12.2% → 10.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.24%	—	×0.860	10.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	28.57%	—	×0.900	25.71%
HR / BF /BF	2.04%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.24%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 6.81 → 6.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 49 IPFIP 6.34 → 6.79 (+0.45)K% 20.2% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.18%	—	×0.860	17.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.53%	—	×0.900	9.47%
HR / BF /BF	6.58%	÷1.003	×1.100	7.21%

Result: FIP 6.34 → 6.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 23 IPFIP 1.36 → 2.01 (+0.65)K% 33.8% → 27.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.75%	—	×0.810	27.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.75%	—	×1.100	9.62%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.077	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.36 → 2.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 31 IPFIP 2.54 → 3.36 (+0.82)K% 29.4% → 23.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.37%	—	×0.810	23.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×1.100	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	1.40%	÷0.920	×1.200	1.82%

Result: FIP 2.54 → 3.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 24 IPFIP 2.21 → 3.35 (+1.14)K% 34.6% → 26.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.62%	—	×0.770	26.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×1.150	8.85%
HR / BF /BF	1.92%	÷0.959	×1.250	2.51%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 2.21 → 3.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 61 IPFIP 3.81 → 4.94 (+1.13)K% 29.1% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.09%	—	×0.770	22.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.36%	—	×1.150	14.22%
HR / BF /BF	2.91%	÷1.033	×1.250	3.52%

Result: FIP 3.81 → 4.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AColumbia Fireflies · 5 IPFIP 5.91 → 6.79 (+0.88)K% 12.5% → 9.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.50%	—	×0.740	9.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.50%	—	×1.180	14.75%
HR / BF /BF	4.17%	÷1.140	×1.300	4.75%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 128).

Result: FIP 5.91 → 6.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brandon Johnson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.15	19.9%	11.6%	3.4%	—	5.24	20.0%	8.4%	95	+0.09	—	—	—
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	88
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	87
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	87
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	86
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	85
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	85
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	84
Tyler Yates R 2006 · 4.17 FIP	28	SU	4.17	21.2%	10.6%	2.8%	.254	3.70	20.7%	11.1%	151	-0.47	3.23	248	84
Jose Veras R 2009 · 5.13 FIP	28	SU	5.13	17.8%	12.4%	3.6%	.228	3.57	26.3%	14.0%	186	-1.56	3.37	422	83
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	83
J.J. Putz R 2005 · 4.36 FIP	28	SU	4.36	17.4%	8.1%	3.1%	.270	2.24	31.4%	25.1%	196	-2.12	1.43	563	83
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	83
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	81
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	81
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	81
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	81
Jhan Mariñez R 2017 · 3.97 FIP	28	SU	3.97	17.2%	8.8%	2.2%	.309	4.09	21.2%	13.3%	48	+0.12	3.16	253	81
Logan Bawcom R 2017 · 4.06 FIP	28	SU	4.06	18.2%	10.7%	2.1%	.298	5.19	15.0%	6.4%	164	+1.13	3.73	399	81
Cristofer Ogando R 2022 · 4.90 FIP	28	SU	4.90	20.6%	11.6%	3.8%	.236	—	—	—	—	—	3.23	179	80
A.J. Schugel R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	28	SU	4.01	20.1%	8.1%	2.9%	.307	6.37	17.6%	10.6%	13	+2.36	2.80	299	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	55	20.0%	11.6%	1.37	5.16
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*