Brandon Johnson — OGILVIE

Brandon Johnson P Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 27 RHP 6'0" / 195 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION71 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 119

ERA5.40

FIP5.40

K%18.9%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%7.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 77 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	0	6	27	5	3	1	0%	1.2	18.5%	11.1%	7.4%	3.7%	7.50	4.98	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	0	6	27	5	3	1	0%	1.2	18.5%	11.1%	7.4%	3.7%	7.50	5.10	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	40	0	61	275	80	34	8	0%	1.5	22.4%	14.2%	8.2%	3.5%	5.04	4.94	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	40	0	61	275	80	34	8	0%	1.5	22.4%	14.2%	8.2%	3.5%	5.04	4.94	—
2023	24	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	40	0	61	275	80	34	8	0%	1.5	29.1%	12.4%	16.7%	2.9%	5.04	3.86	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	55	247	78	21	4	0%	1.2	25.0%	9.5%	15.5%	2.1%	4.23	3.35	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	55	247	78	21	4	0%	1.2	25.0%	9.5%	15.5%	2.1%	4.23	3.35	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	55	247	78	21	4	0%	1.2	31.6%	8.5%	23.1%	1.6%	4.23	2.36	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	2	72	308	73	31	15	4%	1.3	19.5%	9.5%	10.0%	5.3%	4.88	5.59	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	2	72	308	73	31	15	4%	1.3	19.5%	9.5%	10.0%	5.3%	4.88	5.59	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	2	72	308	73	31	15	4%	1.3	23.7%	10.1%	13.6%	4.9%	4.88	5.07	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	54	1	71	301	75	40	7	2%	1.3	22.2%	11.3%	10.8%	2.9%	4.97	4.23	—
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	54	1	71	301	75	40	7	2%	1.3	22.2%	11.3%	10.8%	2.9%	4.97	4.23	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AA RAW	KC	45	1	62	252	69	26	6	2%	1.4	27.4%	10.3%	17.1%	2.4%	4.06	3.40	—
2026	27	AAA RAW	KC	9	0	9	49	6	14	1	0%	1.0	12.2%	28.6%	-16.3%	2.0%	11.42	6.81	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	KC	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	18.9%	11.0%	7.9%	3.9%	5.40	5.40	-0.1
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	KC	—	—	77	326	80	43	8	—	—	24.5%	13.1%	11.3%	2.4%	5.00	4.32	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	KC	65	0	68	287	55	32	11	0%	1.0	19.2%	11.0%	8.2%	3.9%	5.34	5.38	-0.6
2028	29	MLB MLE	KC	62	0	65	274	53	30	11	0%	1.0	19.3%	11.1%	8.2%	4.0%	5.36	5.43	-0.6
2027	28	MLB CTX	KC	25	0	26	110	21	12	4	0%	1.0	19.2%	11.0%	8.2%	3.9%	5.34	5.38	-0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	KC	34	0	36	152	29	17	6	0%	1.1	19.3%	11.1%	8.2%	4.0%	5.36	5.43	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		59	0	62	261	50	29	10	0%	1.0	19.3%	11.0%	8.2%	3.9%	5.35	5.03	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	162	94	32	0%	1.1	19.3%	11.0%	8.2%	3.9%	5.35	5.03	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		198	3	265	1158	255	129	41	2%	1.3	22.0%	11.1%	10.9%	3.5%	4.86	4.59	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		150	2	200	875	193	98	31	2%	1.3	22.0%	11.1%	10.9%	3.5%	4.86	4.59	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brandon Johnson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.40	18.9%	11.0%	3.9%	—	5.40	19.3%	8.2%	133	+0.00	—	—	—
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	88
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	86
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	86
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	85
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	84
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	84
Gonzalez Germen R 2015 · 4.24 FIP	27	SU	4.24	18.0%	12.5%	1.9%	.296	3.88	19.2%	8.3%	54	-0.36	3.70	146	84
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	83
J.J. Hoover R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	27	SU	4.22	19.7%	11.4%	2.5%	.211	4.46	24.6%	14.3%	98	+0.24	4.22	258	83
Fernery Ozuna R 2023 · 5.71 FIP	27	SU	5.71	18.4%	11.6%	4.9%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	157	82
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	82
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2018 · 5.07 FIP	27	SU	5.07	22.2%	11.4%	4.4%	.256	4.43	23.3%	9.7%	39	-0.64	2.64	315	82
Hunter Parsons R 2023 · 4.88 FIP	26	SU	4.88	22.0%	10.0%	4.3%	.274	6.70	25.5%	9.0%	29	+1.82	4.73	183	82
Nolan Clenney R 2023 · 4.79 FIP	27	SU	4.79	22.6%	10.1%	4.2%	.341	4.58	17.2%	7.5%	71	-0.21	3.73	223	82
Michael Blazek R 2016 · 4.92 FIP	27	SU	4.92	17.9%	11.9%	3.3%	.336	4.43	17.5%	8.0%	124	-0.49	2.99	221	82
Guido Knudson R 2016 · 4.69 FIP	26	SU	4.69	17.5%	10.8%	3.1%	.235	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	106	82
Aaron Kurcz R 2017 · 4.84 FIP	26	SU	4.84	15.4%	8.4%	3.6%	.301	3.97	26.2%	21.8%	50	-0.87	3.31	213	81
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	81
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	81
Jonathan Hughes R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	17.1%	9.2%	2.7%	.283	3.54	17.1%	4.9%	50	-0.77	3.44	219	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	19.1%	11.0%	1.51	5.37
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63