Brandon Johnson
P
Northwest Arkansas Naturals
Age 27
RHP
6'0" / 195 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION44 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141132vR 123
ERA5.44
FIP5.44
K%19.5%
BB%11.7%
K-BB%7.8%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 114 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 0 | 6 | 27 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 18.5% | 11.1% | 7.4% | 3.7% | 7.50 | 4.98 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 0 | 6 | 27 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 18.5% | 11.1% | 7.4% | 3.7% | 7.50 | 5.10 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 40 | 0 | 61 | 275 | 80 | 34 | 8 | 0% | 1.5 | 22.4% | 14.2% | 8.2% | 3.4% | 5.04 | 4.88 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 40 | 0 | 61 | 275 | 80 | 34 | 8 | 0% | 1.5 | 29.1% | 12.4% | 16.7% | 2.9% | 5.04 | 3.86 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 55 | 247 | 78 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 25.0% | 9.5% | 15.5% | 2.3% | 4.23 | 3.44 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 55 | 247 | 78 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 31.6% | 8.5% | 23.1% | 1.6% | 4.23 | 2.36 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 2 | 72 | 308 | 73 | 31 | 15 | 4% | 1.3 | 20.2% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 5.3% | 4.88 | 5.67 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 2 | 72 | 308 | 73 | 31 | 15 | 4% | 1.3 | 23.7% | 10.1% | 13.6% | 4.9% | 4.88 | 5.07 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 37 | 1 | 44 | 192 | 41 | 32 | 3 | 3% | 1.2 | 19.8% | 13.8% | 6.0% | 1.7% | 6.09 | 4.10 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | KC | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 58 | 35 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.5% | 11.7% | 7.8% | 3.9% | 5.44 | 5.44 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | KC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.5% | 11.7% | 7.8% | 3.9% | 5.44 | 5.44 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | KC | — | — | 114 | 488 | 99 | 67 | 14 | — | — | 20.2% | 13.7% | 6.6% | 3.0% | 5.69 | 4.92 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | KC | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 19.5% | 11.7% | 7.8% | 3.9% | 5.44 | 5.06 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | KC | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 57 | 33 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.8% | 11.6% | 8.1% | 3.9% | 5.38 | 5.41 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | KC | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 54 | 32 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.8% | 11.7% | 8.1% | 4.0% | 5.40 | 5.46 | -0.6 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | KC | 58 | 0 | 61 | 257 | 50 | 30 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.6% | 11.8% | 7.8% | 4.1% | 5.49 | 5.58 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | KC | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 22 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.8% | 11.6% | 8.1% | 3.9% | 5.38 | 5.41 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | KC | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 30 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.8% | 11.7% | 8.1% | 4.0% | 5.40 | 5.46 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | KC | 39 | 0 | 41 | 173 | 34 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.6% | 11.8% | 7.8% | 4.1% | 5.49 | 5.58 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 99 | 0 | 104 | 441 | 87 | 52 | 18 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.7% | 11.7% | 8.0% | 4.0% | 5.43 | 5.12 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 167 | 100 | 34 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.7% | 11.7% | 8.0% | 4.0% | 5.43 | 5.12 | +0.7 | ||
| Career | — | 181 | 3 | 238 | 1049 | 229 | 125 | 36 | 2% | 1.3 | 21.8% | 11.9% | 9.9% | 3.4% | 5.06 | 4.63 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 152 | 3 | 200 | 880 | 192 | 105 | 30 | 2% | 1.3 | 21.8% | 11.9% | 9.9% | 3.4% | 5.06 | 4.63 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brandon Johnson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.44 | 19.5% | 11.7% | 3.9% | — | 5.48 | 19.7% | 8.0% | 194 | +0.04 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.69 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .297 | 4.04 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.65 | 4.04 | 102 | 87 |
| Cole McDonald R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.38 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 4.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 153 | 85 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 85 |
| Brett McKinney R 2025 · 5.06 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.06 | 18.5% | 9.9% | 4.1% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 183 | 85 |
| Mike Adams R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.26 | 17.1% | 11.2% | 4.0% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 109 | 84 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.51 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .355 | 4.54 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | +0.03 | 3.57 | 187 | 84 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2027 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.39 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.65 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.26 | 4.39 | 101 | 84 |
| Michael Blazek R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.09 | 17.9% | 11.9% | 3.6% | .336 | 4.52 | 17.5% | 8.0% | 124 | -0.57 | 3.05 | 221 | 83 |
| Chris Beck R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.83 | 17.4% | 12.2% | 3.0% | .305 | 5.33 | 18.1% | 9.3% | 41 | +0.50 | 3.11 | 313 | 83 |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.33 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .309 | 5.34 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +1.01 | 3.43 | 160 | 83 |
| Armando Rivero R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.39 | 18.7% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .256 | 2.81 | 32.9% | 19.8% | 68 | -1.58 | 2.81 | 125 | 83 |
| J.J. Hoover R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.26 | 19.7% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .211 | 4.51 | 24.6% | 14.3% | 98 | +0.25 | 4.26 | 258 | 83 |
| Fernery Ozuna R 2026 · 5.77 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.77 | 19.5% | 13.5% | 4.7% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 157 | 82 |
| Nolan Riggs R 2024 · 4.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.61 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 82 |
| Nick Ernst R 2024 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.99 | 21.9% | 14.6% | 3.4% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 117 | 82 |
| Hunter Parsons R 2025 · 5.03 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.03 | 22.8% | 10.9% | 4.5% | .274 | 6.73 | 25.5% | 9.0% | 29 | +1.70 | 4.95 | 183 | 82 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 5.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.33 | 22.2% | 11.4% | 4.8% | .256 | 4.63 | 23.3% | 9.7% | 39 | -0.70 | 2.69 | 315 | 82 |
| Guido Knudson R 2025 · 4.83 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.83 | 17.5% | 10.8% | 3.4% | .235 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 106 | 82 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.37 | 16.4% | 13.6% | 3.5% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 140 | 82 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2029 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 66 | 19.7% | 11.7% | 1.53 | 5.43 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |