Mason McGwire — OGILVIE

Mason McGwire P Tri-City Dust Devils

Age 22 RHP 6'4" / 190 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.7 · 2032

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 23 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 144136vR 128

ERA5.84

FIP5.84

K%18.0%

BB%17.6%

K-BB%0.4%

ROS IP24

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$0M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	11	10	35	185	36	29	5	91%	3.2	13.2%	19.6%	-6.4%	3.8%	9.42	6.54	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	11	10	35	185	36	29	5	91%	3.2	13.2%	19.6%	-6.4%	3.8%	9.42	6.54	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	ACL Cubs	11	10	35	185	36	29	5	91%	3.2	19.5%	15.7%	3.8%	2.7%	9.42	5.36	—
2024	20	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	15	8	41	189	30	34	4	53%	2.7	11.7%	21.2%	-9.5%	3.0%	5.71	6.46	—
2024	20	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	15	8	41	189	30	34	4	53%	2.7	11.7%	21.2%	-9.5%	3.0%	5.71	6.46	—
2024	20	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	15	8	41	189	30	34	4	53%	2.7	15.9%	18.0%	-2.1%	2.1%	5.71	5.39	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	23	16	79	335	95	31	7	70%	3.4	21.4%	10.7%	10.7%	2.7%	3.76	4.11	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	23	16	79	335	95	31	7	70%	3.4	21.4%	10.7%	10.7%	2.7%	3.76	4.11	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	LAA	10	5	30	123	45	10	3	50%	3.0	36.6%	8.1%	28.5%	2.4%	2.40	2.38	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	LAA	13	11	49	212	50	21	4	85%	3.8	23.6%	9.9%	13.7%	1.9%	4.59	3.40	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	LAA	15	15	80	339	67	51	10	100%	5.4	19.7%	15.0%	4.8%	3.0%	5.48	5.34	-0.4
2028	24	MLB MLE	LAA	15	15	82	347	72	46	10	100%	5.5	20.7%	13.2%	7.5%	2.9%	5.16	5.01	-0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	LAA	14	14	83	352	74	42	10	100%	6.0	21.1%	12.0%	9.2%	2.9%	4.94	4.81	+0.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	LAA	14	14	83	352	75	42	10	100%	6.0	21.4%	11.8%	9.6%	2.9%	4.84	4.78	+0.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	LAA	14	14	82	347	74	41	10	100%	5.9	21.4%	11.9%	9.5%	3.0%	4.82	4.81	+0.1
2032	28	MLB MLE	LAA	13	13	80	336	78	38	10	100%	6.1	23.2%	11.2%	12.0%	3.1%	4.70	4.63	+0.2
2033	29	MLB MLE	LAA	13	13	76	321	74	37	10	100%	5.8	23.0%	11.5%	11.6%	3.2%	4.74	4.76	+0.1
2034	30	MLB MLE	LAA	12	12	71	301	68	35	10	100%	6.0	22.7%	11.8%	10.9%	3.4%	4.86	4.94	-0.0
2027	23	MLB CTX	LAA	7	7	40	169	33	25	5	100%	5.7	19.7%	15.0%	4.8%	3.0%	5.51	5.37	-0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	58	245	51	32	7	100%	5.8	20.7%	13.2%	7.5%	3.0%	5.19	5.04	-0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	LAA	12	12	68	287	61	34	9	100%	5.7	21.1%	12.0%	9.2%	3.0%	4.97	4.84	+0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	LAA	12	12	73	308	66	36	9	100%	6.1	21.4%	11.8%	9.6%	3.0%	4.87	4.81	+0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	LAA	12	12	74	312	67	37	9	100%	6.2	21.4%	11.9%	9.5%	3.0%	4.85	4.84	+0.1
2032	28	MLB CTX	LAA	12	12	73	308	72	35	10	100%	6.1	23.2%	11.2%	12.0%	3.1%	4.73	4.66	+0.2
2033	29	MLB CTX	LAA	12	12	71	300	69	34	10	100%	5.9	23.0%	11.5%	11.6%	3.3%	4.78	4.80	+0.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	LAA	11	11	67	283	64	33	10	100%	6.1	22.7%	11.8%	10.9%	3.5%	4.90	4.98	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		89	89	523	2207	481	267	69	100%	5.9	21.8%	12.1%	9.7%	3.1%	4.94	4.51	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	184	102	26	100%	5.9	21.8%	12.1%	9.7%	3.1%	4.94	4.51	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		49	34	155	709	118	112	22	69%	3.2	16.7%	15.8%	0.9%	3.1%	5.56	5.37	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	44	200	913	153	145	28	69%	3.2	16.7%	15.8%	0.9%	3.1%	5.56	5.37	+0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mason McGwire (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.84	18.0%	17.6%	3.0%	—	5.05	20.5%	7.2%	246	-0.79	—	—	—
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.16	23.1%	9.1%	200	-1.68	3.51	223	88
Marco Jimenez R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	22	SP-	5.27	19.6%	17.7%	2.9%	.372	3.89	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.38	3.36	183	85
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	85
Fernando Baez R 2015 · 6.56 FIP	23	SP-	6.56	18.6%	18.8%	4.8%	.322	4.51	26.9%	7.8%	94	-2.05	3.45	129	84
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	83
Luis Mora R 2016 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	16.3%	15.4%	3.8%	.303	5.27	23.9%	1.2%	43	-0.51	3.95	119	83
Alex Vallecillo R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	18.6%	16.3%	2.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	152	82
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	82
Blane Abeyta R 2021 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP-	4.66	21.1%	18.2%	1.9%	.283	4.78	15.6%	6.4%	343	+0.12	4.24	489	81
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	80
Lisandro Almonte R 2023 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	20.4%	20.7%	2.8%	.274	3.81	20.7%	12.2%	15	-1.73	3.81	128	79
Holt Jones R 2022 · 6.63 FIP	23	SP	6.63	17.9%	19.5%	4.7%	.296	4.64	18.4%	0.8%	147	-1.99	3.37	241	79
Kevin Valdez R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	21	SP-	4.87	16.6%	17.9%	1.7%	.188	4.97	16.0%	3.2%	189	+0.10	3.46	263	79
Rubén Menes R 2023 · 6.12 FIP	21	SP-	6.12	13.1%	21.9%	2.5%	.257	4.94	15.6%	2.1%	100	-1.18	3.39	112	78
Gage Stanifer R 2023 · 4.78 FIP	19	SP-	4.78	16.6%	14.9%	2.2%	.342	4.35	24.2%	7.9%	259	-0.43	2.85	301	78
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	78
Eddy Peralta R 2023 · 4.65 FIP	20	SP-	4.65	22.0%	19.8%	1.6%	.342	3.96	21.0%	1.7%	86	-0.69	3.73	117	77
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	77
Keythel Key R 2023 · 5.77 FIP	19	SP-	5.77	13.7%	20.1%	2.3%	.290	5.29	18.8%	2.9%	228	-0.48	4.98	272	77
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	74	21.5%	12.5%	1.18	4.98
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04