Mason McGwire

P Tri-City Dust Devils

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 190 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.7 · 2029

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#818ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	19	ROKCHC	11	10	35	9.42	5.36	19.5%	15.7%	—	K 13.2% · BB 19.6% · FIP 6.54
2024	20	ACHC	15	8	41	5.71	5.39	15.9%	18.0%	—	K 11.7% · BB 21.2% · FIP 6.46
2026	22	MIX2 levels	23	16	79	3.76	3.02	28.4%	9.3%	—	K 21.4% · BB 10.7% · FIP 4.11
2027PROJ	23	MLBLAA	—	—	0	4.90	4.90	20.6%	12.3%	—
2028PROJ31% MLB	24	MLBLAA	3	3	19	4.79	4.73	21.4%	11.4%	0.2
2029PROJ51% MLB	25	MLBLAA	5	5	29	4.68	4.62	22.0%	10.9%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$0.4M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 4.0, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 88%

CompsTanner Hall (age 22) · Noah Denoyer (age 23) · Ray Gaither (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.90

FIP4.90

K%20.6%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%8.3%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$14M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2034	Arb-1	$0.4M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.3M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	11	10	35	185	36	29	5	91%	3.2	13.2%	19.6%	-6.4%	3.8%	9.42	6.54	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	ACL Cubs	11	10	35	185	36	29	5	91%	3.2	19.5%	15.7%	3.8%	2.7%	9.42	5.36	—
2024	20	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	15	8	41	189	30	34	4	53%	2.7	11.7%	21.2%	-9.5%	3.0%	5.71	6.46	—
2024	20	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	15	8	41	189	30	34	4	53%	2.7	11.7%	21.2%	-9.5%	3.0%	5.71	6.46	—
2024	20	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	15	8	41	189	30	34	4	53%	2.7	15.9%	18.0%	-2.1%	2.1%	5.71	5.39	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	16	79	335	95	31	7	70%	3.4	21.4%	10.7%	10.7%	2.7%	3.76	4.11	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	16	79	335	95	31	7	70%	3.4	21.4%	10.7%	10.7%	2.7%	3.76	4.11	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	16	79	335	95	31	7	70%	3.4	28.4%	9.3%	19.1%	2.1%	3.76	3.02	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	LAA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.6%	12.3%	8.3%	2.9%	4.90	4.90	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	LAA	11	11	62	260	56	30	8	100%	5.6	21.4%	11.4%	10.1%	2.9%	4.76	4.70	+0.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	LAA	10	10	56	236	52	26	7	100%	5.6	22.0%	10.9%	11.1%	2.9%	4.65	4.59	+0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	LAA	9	9	55	232	52	25	7	100%	6.1	22.2%	10.8%	11.5%	2.9%	4.59	4.55	+0.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	LAA	9	9	53	225	50	24	7	100%	5.9	22.2%	10.8%	11.5%	2.9%	4.59	4.59	+0.5
2032	28	MLB MLE	LAA	8	8	50	213	47	23	6	100%	6.3	22.1%	10.9%	11.2%	3.0%	4.64	4.67	+0.4
2033	29	MLB MLE	LAA	8	8	47	197	43	22	6	100%	5.8	21.9%	11.2%	10.7%	3.2%	4.74	4.80	+0.3
2034	30	MLB MLE	LAA	7	7	42	177	38	20	6	100%	6.0	21.5%	11.5%	10.1%	3.4%	4.88	4.98	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	LAA	3	3	19	80	17	9	2	100%	6.3	21.4%	11.4%	10.1%	3.0%	4.79	4.73	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	LAA	5	5	29	122	27	13	4	100%	5.8	22.0%	10.9%	11.1%	2.9%	4.68	4.62	+0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	LAA	6	6	36	152	34	16	4	100%	6.0	22.2%	10.8%	11.5%	3.0%	4.62	4.58	+0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	LAA	6	6	39	165	37	18	5	100%	6.5	22.2%	10.8%	11.5%	3.0%	4.62	4.62	+0.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	LAA	7	7	40	169	37	18	5	100%	5.7	22.1%	10.9%	11.2%	3.1%	4.67	4.70	+0.3
2033	29	MLB CTX	LAA	6	6	39	165	36	18	5	100%	6.5	21.9%	11.2%	10.7%	3.3%	4.78	4.84	+0.3
2034	30	MLB CTX	LAA	6	6	36	152	33	17	5	100%	6.0	21.5%	11.5%	10.1%	3.5%	4.92	5.02	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		40	40	237	1000	220	110	31	100%	5.9	22.0%	11.0%	10.9%	3.1%	4.72	4.35	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	186	93	26	100%	5.9	22.0%	11.0%	10.9%	3.1%	4.72	4.35	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		49	34	155	709	118	112	22	69%	3.2	16.7%	15.8%	0.9%	3.1%	5.56	5.37	+3.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	44	200	913	153	145	28	69%	3.2	16.7%	15.8%	0.9%	3.1%	5.56	5.37	+1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 49 IPFIP 3.40 → 4.30 (+0.91)K% 23.6% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.58%	—	×0.770	18.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.91%	—	×1.150	11.39%
HR / BF /BF	1.89%	÷1.000	×1.250	2.36%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.40 → 4.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 30 IPFIP 2.38 → 3.77 (+1.39)K% 36.6% → 27.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.59%	—	×0.740	27.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.13%	—	×1.180	9.59%
HR / BF /BF	2.44%	÷1.000	×1.300	3.17%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.38 → 3.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 41 IPFIP 5.20 → 6.46 (+1.26)K% 15.9% → 11.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.87%	—	×0.740	11.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.99%	—	×1.180	21.23%
HR / BF /BF	2.12%	÷0.908	×1.300	3.03%

Result: FIP 5.20 → 6.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Cubs · 35 IPFIP 4.93 → 6.54 (+1.62)K% 19.5% → 13.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.46%	—	×0.680	13.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.68%	—	×1.250	19.59%
HR / BF /BF	2.70%	÷1.000	×1.400	3.78%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.93 → 6.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mason McGwire (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.62	21.9%	10.8%	172	-0.28	—	—	—
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	92
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	90
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	89
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	89
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	86
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.15	22.0%	9.5%	123	+0.85	4.30	181	86
Dean Deetz R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP-	4.32	22.2%	13.7%	2.5%	.298	4.73	29.1%	10.7%	68	+0.41	2.61	281	85
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	85
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.56	18.8%	9.0%	178	+1.83	3.73	274	85
Levi Thomas R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	18.1%	11.9%	3.9%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.06	5.16	116	84
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.71	21.6%	11.0%	188	-0.66	3.16	266	84
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	83
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	82
Jackson Finley R 2024 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	18.0%	12.8%	1.7%	.361	3.97	20.9%	9.8%	67	-0.19	3.97	150	82
Jimmy Endersby R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP-	4.29	20.9%	14.1%	2.1%	.310	5.71	16.3%	4.2%	225	+1.42	2.86	357	82
Ben Casparius R 2022 · 5.29 FIP	23	SP-	5.29	20.6%	13.2%	4.1%	.306	4.37	21.6%	11.0%	274	-0.92	3.36	374	82
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	81
Jeremy Lee R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	16.8%	11.5%	1.9%	.318	5.21	11.2%	-0.5%	46	+1.04	4.17	125	81
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	81
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.83	17.8%	6.5%	200	+0.57	4.26	292	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	53	21.7%	11.2%	1.16	4.72
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.6	51	21.6%	10.5%	1.24	4.71
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*