Ian Bedell

P Memphis Redbirds

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 214 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	21	19	108	4.85	4.86	24.1%	9.0%	—	K 19.8% · BB 8.8% · FIP 5.08
2025	25	MIX3 levels	17	17	60	7.69	5.68	22.1%	9.8%	—	K 17.8% · BB 8.8% · FIP 6.66
2026	26	AAASTL	11	1	18	11.78	5.88	18.3%	20.2%	—	K 15.7% · BB 18.2% · FIP 5.24
2027PROJ	27	MLBSTL	1	1	6	5.60	5.60	17.0%	12.1%	-0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	28	MLBSTL	3	3	20	5.53	5.56	17.5%	12.0%	-0.0
2029PROJ59% MLB	29	MLBSTL	4	4	24	5.53	5.60	17.7%	12.0%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control50Command45

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsClay Condrey (age 27) · Alfonso Sanchez (age 27) · David Griffin (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140131vR 123

ERA5.60

FIP5.60

K%17.0%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%4.8%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	2	1	3	17	4	2	0	50%	1.3	23.5%	11.8%	11.8%	0.0%	10.12	2.60	—
2021	21	A+ RAW	Peoria Chiefs	2	1	3	17	4	2	0	50%	1.3	23.5%	11.8%	11.8%	0.0%	10.12	2.35	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	2	6	29	10	3	0	33%	0.9	34.5%	10.3%	24.1%	0.0%	3.18	1.50	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	2	6	29	10	3	0	33%	0.9	34.5%	10.3%	24.1%	0.0%	3.18	1.16	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	27	19	96	389	106	34	7	70%	3.6	21.0%	10.1%	10.9%	2.1%	2.44	3.73	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Peoria Chiefs	27	19	96	389	106	34	7	70%	3.6	27.2%	8.7%	18.5%	1.8%	2.44	2.90	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	19	108	457	110	41	22	90%	5.1	19.8%	8.8%	11.0%	4.6%	4.85	5.08	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	19	108	457	110	41	22	90%	5.1	19.8%	8.8%	11.0%	4.6%	4.85	5.08	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	19	108	457	110	41	22	90%	5.1	24.1%	9.0%	15.1%	4.8%	4.85	4.86	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	17	60	276	61	27	15	100%	3.5	17.8%	8.8%	9.0%	7.2%	7.69	6.66	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	17	60	276	61	27	15	100%	3.5	17.8%	8.8%	9.0%	7.2%	7.69	6.66	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	17	60	276	61	27	15	100%	3.5	22.1%	9.8%	12.3%	5.4%	7.69	5.68	—
2026	26	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	11	1	18	104	19	21	2	9%	1.7	15.7%	18.2%	-2.5%	2.1%	11.78	5.24	—
2026	26	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	11	1	18	104	19	21	2	9%	1.7	15.7%	18.2%	-2.5%	2.1%	11.78	5.24	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	Memphis Redbirds	11	1	18	104	19	21	2	9%	1.7	18.3%	20.2%	-1.9%	1.9%	11.78	5.88	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	STL	1	1	6	25	4	3	1	100%	6.0	17.0%	12.1%	4.8%	3.7%	5.60	5.60	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	STL	8	8	48	201	35	24	7	100%	6.0	17.5%	12.0%	5.5%	3.7%	5.53	5.56	-0.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	STL	7	7	41	174	31	21	7	100%	5.9	17.7%	12.0%	5.7%	3.8%	5.53	5.60	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	STL	3	3	20	84	15	10	3	100%	6.7	17.5%	12.0%	5.5%	3.7%	5.53	5.56	-0.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	STL	4	4	24	101	18	12	4	100%	6.0	17.7%	12.0%	5.7%	3.8%	5.53	5.60	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	7	45	188	33	23	7	100%	6.4	17.6%	12.0%	5.6%	3.8%	5.53	5.20	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	148	103	31	100%	6.0	17.6%	12.0%	5.6%	3.8%	5.53	5.20	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		84	59	290	1272	252	128	51	70%	3.5	19.8%	10.0%	9.8%	4.0%	5.09	4.91	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	41	200	877	174	88	35	70%	3.5	19.8%	10.0%	9.8%	4.0%	5.09	4.91	-0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 18 IPFIP 5.17 → 5.24 (+0.07)K% 18.3% → 15.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.27%	—	×0.860	15.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.19%	—	×0.900	18.17%
HR / BF /BF	1.92%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.12%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.17 → 5.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 52 IPFIP 5.71 → 6.66 (+0.95)K% 20.7% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.73%	—	×0.860	17.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.76%	—	×0.900	8.78%
HR / BF /BF	5.69%	÷0.869	×1.100	7.21%

Result: FIP 5.71 → 6.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 APalm Beach Cardinals · 6 IPFIP 4.16 → 5.94 (+1.78)K% 33.3% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.740	24.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.50%	—	×1.180	14.75%
HR / BF /BF	4.17%	÷0.973	×1.300	5.56%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).

Result: FIP 4.16 → 5.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AASpringfield Cardinals · 65 IPFIP 3.87 → 4.10 (+0.22)K% 29.5% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.48%	—	×0.810	23.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.34%	—	×1.100	6.98%
HR / BF /BF	4.48%	÷1.386	×1.200	3.88%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 177).

Result: FIP 3.87 → 4.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 43 IPFIP 6.23 → 6.49 (+0.26)K% 16.4% → 14.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.40%	—	×0.860	14.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.70%	—	×0.900	11.43%
HR / BF /BF	5.29%	÷1.020	×1.100	5.70%

Result: FIP 6.23 → 6.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Peoria Chiefs · 96 IPFIP 2.89 → 3.73 (+0.84)K% 27.2% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.25%	—	×0.770	20.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.74%	—	×1.150	10.05%
HR / BF /BF	1.80%	÷1.093	×1.250	2.06%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 119).

Result: FIP 2.89 → 3.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ian Bedell (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.60	17.0%	12.1%	3.7%	—	5.58	17.6%	5.6%	89	-0.02	—	—	—
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	82
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	80
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.83 FIP	27	SP-	5.83	14.2%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	80
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	78
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	78
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	77
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	77
Shawn Dubin R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	20.0%	12.9%	3.3%	.292	3.97	21.8%	11.4%	79	-0.90	3.02	341	77
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	76
Drake Fellows R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	26	SP-	4.97	16.1%	12.7%	2.9%	.293	4.85	14.2%	6.3%	207	-0.12	4.28	282	76
Luis Niebla R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP-	5.12	11.6%	13.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	156	75
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	75
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2015 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP-	5.24	11.6%	9.8%	3.4%	.263	4.28	15.3%	5.2%	167	-0.96	4.01	272	75
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	75
Noah Song R 2023 · 6.06 FIP	26	SP	6.06	12.0%	13.2%	4.2%	.239	3.80	19.8%	8.3%	116	-2.26	3.68	138	73
Luis Romero R 2021 · 6.01 FIP	27	SW	6.01	13.8%	10.1%	5.1%	.293	5.68	11.7%	-1.4%	68	-0.33	4.00	293	73
Fredy Quintero R 2015 · 4.55 FIP	27	SP-	4.55	11.3%	8.9%	2.3%	.375	4.38	15.1%	7.3%	113	-0.17	4.29	241	73
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.70	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.09	3.22	242	73
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	73
Riley Thompson R 2023 · 5.76 FIP	27	SP-	5.76	18.5%	12.9%	4.7%	.284	4.48	17.6%	8.7%	107	-1.28	4.48	340	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	49	17.3%	12.1%	1.44	5.56
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Darrel Akerfelds ('86-'91, -3 WAR*)	1.2	78	15.8%*	11.9%*	1.61*	5.40*