Ian Bedell
P
Memphis Redbirds
Age 26
RHP
6'2" / 214 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION18 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 150140vR 131
ERA5.83
FIP5.83
K%18.2%
BB%10.6%
K-BB%7.6%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 88 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | 2 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 50% | 1.3 | 23.5% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 0.0% | 10.12 | 2.60 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | 2 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 50% | 1.3 | 23.5% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 0.0% | 10.12 | 2.35 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 2 | 6 | 29 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 33% | 0.9 | 34.5% | 10.3% | 24.1% | 0.0% | 3.18 | 1.50 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 2 | 6 | 29 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 33% | 0.9 | 34.5% | 10.3% | 24.1% | 0.0% | 3.18 | 1.16 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | 27 | 19 | 96 | 389 | 106 | 34 | 7 | 70% | 3.6 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 1.9% | 2.44 | 3.64 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | 27 | 19 | 96 | 389 | 106 | 34 | 7 | 70% | 3.6 | 27.2% | 8.7% | 18.5% | 1.8% | 2.44 | 2.90 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 19 | 108 | 457 | 110 | 41 | 22 | 90% | 5.1 | 20.0% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 4.1% | 4.85 | 4.88 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 19 | 108 | 457 | 110 | 41 | 22 | 90% | 5.1 | 24.1% | 9.0% | 15.1% | 4.8% | 4.85 | 4.86 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 17 | 17 | 60 | 276 | 61 | 27 | 15 | 100% | 3.5 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.69 | 7.52 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 17 | 17 | 60 | 276 | 61 | 27 | 15 | 100% | 3.5 | 22.1% | 9.8% | 12.3% | 5.4% | 7.69 | 5.68 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 11 | 1 | 18 | 104 | 19 | 21 | 2 | 9% | 1.7 | 16.1% | 21.2% | -5.1% | 2.1% | 11.78 | 5.59 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | STL | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 54 | 31 | 14 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.2% | 10.6% | 7.6% | 4.6% | 5.83 | 5.83 | -0.9 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | STL | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.2% | 10.6% | 7.6% | 4.6% | 5.83 | 5.83 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | STL | — | — | 88 | 400 | 73 | 52 | 16 | — | — | 18.2% | 13.1% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 7.07 | 5.78 | -0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | STL | — | — | 7 | 30 | 5 | 3 | 1 | — | — | 18.2% | 10.6% | 7.6% | 4.6% | 5.83 | 5.45 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | STL | 12 | 12 | 69 | 291 | 55 | 31 | 13 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.7% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 4.5% | 5.70 | 5.72 | -0.8 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | STL | 11 | 11 | 67 | 282 | 54 | 30 | 13 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.0% | 10.6% | 8.4% | 4.5% | 5.66 | 5.70 | -0.8 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | STL | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 51 | 29 | 12 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.9% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 4.6% | 5.69 | 5.76 | -0.8 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | STL | 5 | 5 | 29 | 122 | 23 | 13 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.7% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 4.5% | 5.70 | 5.72 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | STL | 7 | 7 | 42 | 177 | 34 | 19 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.0% | 10.6% | 8.4% | 4.5% | 5.66 | 5.70 | -0.6 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | STL | 8 | 8 | 47 | 198 | 38 | 21 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.9% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 4.6% | 5.69 | 5.76 | -0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 26 | 20 | 125 | 527 | 99 | 56 | 24 | 77% | 4.8 | 18.9% | 10.6% | 8.2% | 4.6% | 5.69 | 5.35 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 31 | 200 | 844 | 159 | 90 | 38 | 75% | 4.7 | 18.9% | 10.6% | 8.2% | 4.6% | 5.69 | 5.35 | +0.1 | ||
| Career | — | 84 | 59 | 290 | 1272 | 254 | 138 | 52 | 70% | 3.5 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 9.1% | 4.1% | 5.09 | 5.02 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 58 | 41 | 200 | 877 | 175 | 95 | 36 | 70% | 3.5 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 9.1% | 4.1% | 5.09 | 5.02 | +0.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ian Bedell (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.83 | 18.2% | 10.6% | 4.6% | — | 5.73 | 18.9% | 8.3% | 200 | -0.10 | — | — | — |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.94 | 16.6% | 9.8% | 3.7% | .285 | 6.04 | 14.5% | 4.2% | 81 | +1.10 | 4.52 | 239 | 83 |
| Colby Morris R 2025 · 5.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.76 | 16.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 105 | 79 |
| Jake Dunning R 2026 · 5.65 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.65 | 13.4% | 9.6% | 4.5% | .354 | 4.21 | 14.1% | 2.8% | 74 | -1.44 | 4.13 | 120 | 79 |
| Cody Sedlock R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.83 | 19.9% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .301 | 4.18 | 20.1% | 7.1% | 80 | -0.65 | 4.16 | 378 | 78 |
| Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.96 | 19.7% | 9.7% | 4.2% | .262 | 3.81 | 22.1% | 13.0% | 127 | -1.15 | 3.50 | 472 | 78 |
| Grant Judkins R 2026 · 5.55 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.55 | 16.8% | 9.1% | 5.0% | .264 | 6.06 | 14.9% | 5.8% | 124 | +0.51 | 5.40 | 322 | 77 |
| Mike Connolly R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.26 | 13.2% | 9.4% | 3.8% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.24 | 328 | 77 |
| Nick Pasquale R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.73 | 16.8% | 12.7% | 2.6% | .306 | 3.97 | 17.9% | 6.3% | 50 | -0.76 | 3.16 | 308 | 76 |
| Kevin Miranda R 2026 · 7.02 FIP | 26 | SP- | 7.02 | 14.1% | 10.0% | 7.0% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.61 | 153 | 76 |
| Forrest Snow R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.80 | 16.1% | 8.2% | 3.7% | .263 | 4.19 | 21.8% | 14.2% | 256 | -0.61 | 3.14 | 406 | 75 |
| Matthew Shepherd R 2025 · 5.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.57 | 13.7% | 9.5% | 4.4% | .390 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.57 | 116 | 75 |
| Brian Edgington R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.05 | 19.3% | 12.3% | 3.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 171 | 75 |
| Xzavion Curry R 2026 · 6.45 FIP | 26 | SP- | 6.45 | 16.3% | 7.5% | 6.9% | .253 | 6.48 | 11.7% | 2.1% | 100 | +0.03 | 3.19 | 513 | 75 |
| Beau Blanchard R 2024 · 6.47 FIP | 24 | SW | 6.47 | 16.3% | 10.8% | 6.1% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.35 | 111 | 74 |
| Chance Kirby R 2026 · 5.96 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.96 | 15.1% | 10.0% | 5.2% | .242 | 4.74 | 18.5% | 11.2% | 138 | -1.22 | 4.26 | 325 | 74 |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 12.5% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .346 | 4.97 | 14.0% | 5.3% | 138 | +0.16 | 4.54 | 224 | 74 |
| Jake Walkinshaw R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.66 | 17.5% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .296 | 4.92 | 13.3% | 3.1% | 116 | +0.26 | 2.20 | 286 | 74 |
| Josh Roeder R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.75 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 175 | 73 |
| Drake Fellows R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.39 | 16.2% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .293 | 4.64 | 16.3% | 6.7% | 150 | -0.75 | 4.58 | 226 | 73 |
| Sam Highfill R 2025 · 5.95 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.95 | 18.2% | 10.3% | 5.6% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.68 | 161 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 67 | 18.7% | 10.6% | 1.77 | 5.72 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Edwin Jackson ('19) | 5 | 75 | 17.0% | 9.7% | 1.75 | 5.37 |
| Mike Wright Jr. ('19) | 5 | 52 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 1.53 | 6.00 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Dylan Covey ('23) | 4 | 73 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 1.53 | 6.14 |
| Chris Young ('17) | 3 | 81 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 1.90 | 4.76 |