Ian Bedell — OGILVIE

Ian Bedell P Memphis Redbirds

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 214 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION18 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140132vR 123

ERA5.61

FIP5.61

K%17.5%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%8.1%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 24 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	2	1	3	17	4	2	0	50%	1.3	23.5%	11.8%	11.8%	0.0%	10.12	2.60	—
2021	21	A+ RAW	Peoria Chiefs	2	1	3	17	4	2	0	50%	1.3	23.5%	11.8%	11.8%	0.0%	10.12	2.35	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	2	6	29	10	3	0	33%	0.9	34.5%	10.3%	24.1%	0.0%	3.18	1.50	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	2	6	29	10	3	0	33%	0.9	34.5%	10.3%	24.1%	0.0%	3.18	1.16	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	27	19	96	389	106	34	7	70%	3.6	21.0%	10.1%	10.9%	2.1%	2.44	3.73	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	27	19	96	389	106	34	7	70%	3.6	21.0%	10.1%	10.9%	2.1%	2.44	3.73	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Peoria Chiefs	27	19	96	389	106	34	7	70%	3.6	27.2%	8.7%	18.5%	1.8%	2.44	2.90	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	19	108	457	110	41	22	90%	5.1	19.6%	8.8%	10.8%	4.6%	4.85	5.10	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	19	108	457	110	41	22	90%	5.1	19.6%	8.8%	10.8%	4.6%	4.85	5.10	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	19	108	457	110	41	22	90%	5.1	24.1%	9.0%	15.1%	4.8%	4.85	4.86	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	17	60	276	61	27	15	100%	3.5	17.2%	8.8%	8.4%	7.2%	7.69	6.72	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	17	60	276	61	27	15	100%	3.5	17.2%	8.8%	8.4%	7.2%	7.69	6.72	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	17	60	276	61	27	15	100%	3.5	22.1%	9.8%	12.3%	5.4%	7.69	5.68	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	11	1	18	104	19	21	2	9%	1.7	15.2%	18.2%	-3.0%	2.1%	11.78	5.28	—
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	11	1	18	104	19	21	2	9%	1.7	15.2%	18.2%	-3.0%	2.1%	11.78	5.28	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AAA RAW	STL	11	1	18	104	19	21	2	9%	1.7	18.3%	20.2%	-1.9%	1.9%	11.78	5.17	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	STL	6	0	6	25	4	2	1	0%	1.0	17.5%	9.4%	8.1%	4.4%	5.61	5.61	-0.1
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	STL	—	—	24	129	23	23	3	—	—	18.1%	18.1%	0.0%	2.4%	10.29	5.36	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	STL	16	16	95	403	72	37	17	100%	6.0	18.0%	9.3%	8.7%	4.3%	5.49	5.51	-0.6
2028	28	MLB MLE	STL	15	15	92	391	71	36	17	100%	6.2	18.1%	9.3%	8.8%	4.3%	5.46	5.50	-0.6
2029	29	MLB MLE	STL	15	15	88	373	67	35	16	100%	5.9	18.1%	9.5%	8.6%	4.4%	5.50	5.57	-0.7
2030	30	MLB MLE	STL	14	14	83	350	63	34	16	100%	5.9	17.8%	9.7%	8.1%	4.6%	5.61	5.71	-0.7
2027	27	MLB CTX	STL	7	7	41	173	31	16	7	100%	5.9	18.0%	9.3%	8.7%	4.3%	5.49	5.51	-0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	STL	10	10	58	245	44	23	11	100%	5.8	18.1%	9.3%	8.8%	4.3%	5.46	5.50	-0.4
2029	29	MLB CTX	STL	11	11	64	270	49	26	12	100%	5.8	18.1%	9.5%	8.6%	4.4%	5.50	5.57	-0.5
2030	30	MLB CTX	STL	11	11	66	279	50	27	13	100%	6.0	17.8%	9.7%	8.1%	4.6%	5.61	5.71	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		39	38	230	969	175	92	43	97%	5.9	18.0%	9.5%	8.5%	4.4%	5.52	5.20	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	33	200	844	152	80	37	99%	5.9	18.0%	9.5%	8.5%	4.4%	5.52	5.20	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		84	59	290	1272	249	128	51	70%	3.5	19.5%	10.0%	9.5%	4.0%	5.09	4.93	-2.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	41	200	877	171	88	35	70%	3.5	19.5%	10.0%	9.5%	4.0%	5.09	4.93	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ian Bedell (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.61	17.5%	9.4%	4.4%	—	5.53	18.1%	8.7%	276	-0.08	—	—	—
David Griffin R 2022 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	16.6%	9.8%	3.2%	.285	5.85	13.9%	4.7%	81	+1.14	4.43	239	83
Jake Dunning R 2015 · 5.60 FIP	26	SP-	5.60	13.4%	9.6%	4.4%	.354	4.29	14.1%	2.8%	74	-1.31	4.19	120	80
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	78
Cody Sedlock R 2021 · 5.05 FIP	26	SP-	5.05	19.9%	10.9%	4.1%	.301	4.21	20.1%	7.1%	80	-0.84	4.21	378	78
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	78
Luis Santos R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	26	SP-	4.76	19.7%	9.7%	3.8%	.262	3.93	22.1%	13.0%	127	-0.83	3.53	472	78
Forrest Snow R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	26	SP-	5.03	16.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.263	4.14	21.8%	14.2%	256	-0.89	3.02	406	78
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	77
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	25	SP-	4.90	19.1%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.05	22.7%	14.3%	222	-0.85	3.90	538	77
Jake Walkinshaw R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	26	SP-	4.61	17.5%	6.4%	4.0%	.296	4.84	13.0%	3.5%	116	+0.23	2.84	307	76
Nick Pasquale R 2017 · 4.74 FIP	26	SP-	4.74	16.8%	12.7%	2.6%	.306	3.80	17.9%	6.3%	50	-0.94	3.19	308	76
Jacob Wosinski R 2023 · 6.31 FIP	24	SP-	6.31	17.7%	12.4%	5.7%	.351	4.73	16.8%	5.2%	148	-1.58	3.89	181	75
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	75
Tanner Burns R 2023 · 5.27 FIP	24	SW	5.27	19.4%	12.5%	4.0%	.257	5.00	17.7%	4.6%	131	-0.27	4.34	382	75
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	75
Matthew Shepherd R 2015 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	13.7%	9.5%	3.3%	.390	—	—	—	—	—	4.98	116	75
Chance Kirby R 2021 · 5.83 FIP	26	SP-	5.83	15.1%	10.0%	5.0%	.242	4.59	18.5%	11.2%	138	-1.24	4.14	325	75
Carson Rudd R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	21.0%	13.0%	4.7%	.274	4.61	17.5%	-0.1%	110	-0.92	3.39	242	74
Kris Medlen R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	29	SP-	4.82	15.4%	6.4%	4.0%	.261	5.17	17.1%	8.6%	173	+0.35	4.59	261	74
Nick Garcia R 2023 · 5.90 FIP	24	SP-	5.90	15.3%	9.5%	5.2%	.332	4.04	20.5%	8.6%	126	-1.86	3.31	408	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	86	17.9%	9.4%	1.70	5.53
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14
Andrew Suárez ('23)	1.1	74	18.2%	7.8%	1.51	5.02
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78