Ian Bedell
P
Memphis Redbirds
+0.0
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'2" / 214 lbs
AAA
ERA5.47
FIP5.47
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.2%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%10.3%
IP73
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL5050
CMD4545
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | 2 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 10.12 | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 6 | 2 | 6 | 29 | 10 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.18 | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | 27 | 19 | 96 | 389 | 106 | 34 | 7 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 2.0% | 2.44 | 3.72 | +1.7 |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 21 | 19 | 108 | 457 | 110 | 41 | 22 | 20.0% | 9.6% | 4.6% | 4.85 | 5.17 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 17 | 17 | 60 | 276 | 61 | 27 | 15 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 7.4% | 7.69 | 6.91 | -1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 5 | 0 | 6 | 38 | 5 | 9 | 0 | — | — | — | 13.50 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | STL | 13 | 13 | 73 | 309 | 60 | 32 | 14 | 19.6% | 10.3% | 4.4% | 5.58 | 5.58 | -0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | STL | — | — | 79 | 347 | 65 | 41 | 14 | 18.9% | 11.8% | 4.0% | 6.18 | 5.16 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | STL | 13 | 13 | 73 | 307 | 61 | 31 | 13 | 20.0% | 10.2% | 4.3% | 5.45 | 5.46 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | STL | 13 | 13 | 72 | 302 | 61 | 31 | 13 | 20.2% | 10.2% | 4.2% | 5.38 | 5.40 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | STL | 13 | 13 | 70 | 295 | 60 | 30 | 12 | 20.2% | 10.2% | 4.2% | 5.36 | 5.39 | -0.3 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | STL | 12 | 12 | 68 | 286 | 58 | 29 | 12 | 20.1% | 10.3% | 4.3% | 5.39 | 5.43 | -0.3 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | STL | 12 | 12 | 65 | 276 | 55 | 29 | 12 | 19.9% | 10.4% | 4.3% | 5.46 | 5.50 | -0.4 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | STL | 11 | 11 | 63 | 265 | 52 | 28 | 12 | 19.6% | 10.6% | 4.4% | 5.54 | 5.59 | -0.4 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | STL | 60 | — | 60 | 253 | 49 | 27 | 11 | 19.3% | 10.8% | 4.5% | 5.63 | 5.68 | -0.5 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | STL | 57 | — | 57 | 241 | 46 | 26 | 11 | 18.9% | 10.9% | 4.6% | 5.73 | 5.79 | -0.5 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | STL | 54 | — | 54 | 227 | 42 | 25 | 11 | 18.6% | 11.2% | 4.7% | 5.84 | 5.91 | -0.6 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | STL | 50 | — | 50 | 212 | 38 | 24 | 10 | 18.1% | 11.4% | 4.8% | 5.97 | 6.05 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 78 | 58 | 278 | 1206 | 242 | 125 | 49 | 20.1% | 10.4% | 4.1% | 4.83 | 4.97 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 42 | 200 | 869 | 174 | 90 | 35 | 20.1% | 10.4% | 4.1% | 4.83 | 4.97 | +0.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ian Bedell (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.58 | 19.6% | 10.3% | 4.4% | — | 5.42 | 20.2% | 9.9% | 214 | -0.16 | — | — | — |
| Taylor Grover R 2026 · 4.95 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.95 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.9% | .320 | 4.89 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | -0.06 | 3.69 | 239 | 90 |
| Ryan Middendorf R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.93 | 19.6% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .293 | 4.50 | 12.8% | -1.5% | 34 | -0.43 | 1.27 | 164 | 90 |
| Derek Gordon R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.59 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 146 | 88 |
| Brett McKinney R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.57 | 18.5% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 183 | 87 |
| Hunter Parsons R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.93 | 22.8% | 10.9% | 4.3% | .274 | 6.70 | 25.5% | 9.0% | 29 | +1.77 | 4.76 | 183 | 86 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.45 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .278 | 4.78 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 89 | +0.33 | 2.65 | 315 | 85 |
| Jorge Reyes R 2027 · 4.66 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.66 | 15.9% | 8.5% | 3.3% | .307 | 3.46 | 14.2% | 6.2% | 129 | -1.20 | 3.35 | 227 | 85 |
| Braden Zarbnisky R 2026 · 5.17 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.17 | 22.7% | 11.2% | 4.7% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.17 | 142 | 84 |
| Alejandro Mateo R 2025 · 4.88 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.88 | 20.6% | 10.0% | 4.1% | .301 | 3.97 | 21.0% | 10.5% | 13 | -0.91 | 3.97 | 209 | 84 |
| Ryan Cook R 2028 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.78 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .297 | 3.85 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.85 | 102 | 83 |
| Colby Morris R 2025 · 5.74 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.74 | 16.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 105 | 83 |
| Casey Cobb R 2026 · 5.46 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.46 | 15.8% | 9.5% | 4.5% | .342 | 5.66 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 58 | +0.20 | 3.52 | 191 | 83 |
| Cale Coshow R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.60 | 23.1% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .300 | 3.68 | 23.0% | 12.8% | 63 | -0.92 | 3.09 | 377 | 83 |
| Brandon Johnson R 2026 · 5.68 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.68 | 20.2% | 10.7% | 5.3% | .249 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 188 | 83 |
| Simon Miller R 2024 · 5.15 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.15 | 22.7% | 11.1% | 4.7% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 102 | 82 |
| Aaron Kurcz R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.80 | 15.4% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .301 | 3.96 | 26.2% | 21.8% | 50 | -0.84 | 3.31 | 213 | 82 |
| Anders Tolhurst R 2025 · 5.82 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.82 | 17.3% | 10.6% | 5.1% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | 159 | 82 |
| Scott Burke R 2025 · 5.31 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.31 | 14.9% | 8.2% | 4.4% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.55 | 119 | 82 |
| Kyle Martin R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.44 | 18.3% | 10.0% | 2.9% | .304 | 3.25 | 23.0% | 10.0% | 51 | -1.19 | 3.01 | 214 | 82 |
| Dugan Darnell R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.66 | 23.1% | 10.1% | 4.1% | .302 | 3.31 | 24.5% | 15.5% | 94 | -1.35 | 2.49 | 238 | 82 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.