Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 5 | 31 | 145 | 26 | 21 | 3 | 42% | 2.6 | 12.3% | 18.4% | -6.2% | 2.1% | 6.97 | 5.57 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 5 | 31 | 145 | 26 | 21 | 3 | 42% | 2.6 | 17.9% | 14.5% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 6.97 | 4.71 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 13 | 54 | 241 | 43 | 24 | 6 | 93% | 3.8 | 14.0% | 12.4% | 1.5% | 3.2% | 6.04 | 5.24 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 13 | 54 | 241 | 43 | 24 | 6 | 93% | 3.8 | 17.8% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 2.5% | 6.04 | 4.29 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | A+ | Hub City Spartanburgers | 13 | 11 | 46 | 207 | 51 | 23 | 6 | 85% | 3.5 | 18.6% | 12.8% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 6.50 | 5.18 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | TEX | 7 | 7 | 32 | 133 | 17 | 19 | 4 | 100% | 4.5 | 12.7% | 14.4% | -1.7% | 3.0% | 5.88 | 5.88 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 12.7% | 14.4% | -1.7% | 3.0% | 5.88 | 5.88 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 20 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 77 | 340 | 68 | 42 | 10 | — | — | 20.0% | 12.4% | 7.6% | 2.9% | 6.25 | 5.47 | -0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 20 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 12.7% | 14.4% | -1.7% | 3.0% | 5.88 | 5.50 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | TEX | 7 | 7 | 33 | 140 | 21 | 19 | 4 | 100% | 4.7 | 14.9% | 13.3% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 5.60 | 5.52 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | TEX | 7 | 7 | 35 | 147 | 25 | 18 | 4 | 100% | 5.0 | 16.9% | 12.3% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 5.32 | 5.20 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | TEX | 7 | 7 | 36 | 152 | 28 | 18 | 4 | 100% | 5.2 | 18.1% | 11.7% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 5.11 | 5.00 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | TEX | 7 | 7 | 37 | 156 | 29 | 18 | 4 | 100% | 5.3 | 18.8% | 11.4% | 7.4% | 2.8% | 4.97 | 4.89 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | TEX | 6 | 6 | 38 | 158 | 30 | 18 | 4 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.1% | 11.3% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 4.89 | 4.83 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 6 | 6 | 38 | 158 | 31 | 18 | 4 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.4% | 11.2% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 4.84 | 4.81 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 6 | 6 | 37 | 156 | 30 | 18 | 4 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.3% | 11.3% | 8.0% | 2.9% | 4.85 | 4.85 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 6 | 6 | 36 | 151 | 29 | 17 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.2% | 11.5% | 7.8% | 3.0% | 4.90 | 4.93 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | TEX | 3 | 3 | 16 | 68 | 10 | 9 | 2 | 100% | 5.3 | 14.9% | 13.3% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 5.60 | 5.52 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | TEX | 5 | 5 | 25 | 106 | 18 | 13 | 3 | 100% | 5.0 | 16.9% | 12.3% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 5.32 | 5.20 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | TEX | 6 | 6 | 30 | 127 | 23 | 15 | 4 | 100% | 5.0 | 18.1% | 11.7% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 5.11 | 5.00 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | TEX | 6 | 6 | 33 | 139 | 26 | 16 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 18.8% | 11.4% | 7.4% | 2.8% | 4.97 | 4.89 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | TEX | 6 | 6 | 34 | 144 | 27 | 16 | 4 | 100% | 5.7 | 19.1% | 11.3% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 4.89 | 4.83 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 6 | 6 | 35 | 148 | 29 | 17 | 4 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.4% | 11.2% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 4.84 | 4.81 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 6 | 6 | 35 | 148 | 29 | 17 | 4 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.3% | 11.3% | 8.0% | 2.9% | 4.85 | 4.85 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 6 | 6 | 34 | 144 | 28 | 16 | 4 | 100% | 5.7 | 19.2% | 11.5% | 7.8% | 3.0% | 4.90 | 4.93 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 43 | 43 | 244 | 1029 | 191 | 119 | 29 | 100% | 5.7 | 18.5% | 11.6% | 6.9% | 2.9% | 5.01 | 4.58 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 844 | 157 | 98 | 24 | 100% | 5.6 | 18.5% | 11.6% | 6.9% | 2.9% | 5.01 | 4.58 | +1.9 | ||
| Career | — | 39 | 29 | 130 | 593 | 90 | 83 | 18 | 74% | 3.3 | 15.2% | 14.0% | 1.1% | 3.1% | 6.42 | 5.30 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 60 | 45 | 200 | 910 | 138 | 128 | 28 | 74% | 3.3 | 15.2% | 14.0% | 1.1% | 3.1% | 6.42 | 5.30 | +0.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kamdyn Perry (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.88 | 12.7% | 14.4% | 3.0% | — | 5.23 | 16.7% | 4.3% | 104 | -0.65 | — | — | — |
| Felix Cepeda R 2025 · 5.78 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.78 | 11.5% | 14.6% | 3.3% | .297 | 5.96 | 17.0% | -6.4% | 71 | +0.18 | 3.61 | 204 | 92 |
| Danny Flatt R 2026 · 6.05 FIP | 20 | SP- | 6.05 | 14.5% | 15.7% | 4.0% | .304 | 5.46 | 12.5% | -1.1% | 65 | -0.59 | 5.31 | 112 | 88 |
| Denis Diaz R 2026 · 5.51 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.51 | 12.7% | 16.6% | 2.5% | .264 | 5.84 | 11.9% | -4.9% | 92 | +0.33 | 3.39 | 129 | 88 |
| Yovanny Cabrera R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 20 | SP | 5.16 | 14.5% | 13.7% | 2.8% | .238 | 5.31 | 18.5% | 1.6% | 149 | +0.15 | 4.39 | 243 | 86 |
| Ramon Santos R 2026 · 6.07 FIP | 20 | SP | 6.07 | 7.2% | 14.3% | 3.2% | .352 | 4.56 | 13.3% | 3.4% | 191 | -1.51 | 3.84 | 355 | 86 |
| Luis Hernandez R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.86 | 16.7% | 14.0% | 2.5% | .311 | 6.15 | 21.4% | 4.1% | 64 | +1.29 | 4.16 | 109 | 85 |
| Josh Swales R 2026 · 5.43 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.43 | 11.8% | 14.6% | 2.7% | .356 | 5.63 | 15.1% | 1.4% | 66 | +0.20 | 5.43 | 129 | 85 |
| Jeury Espinal R 2025 · 5.08 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.08 | 11.7% | 12.6% | 2.5% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 114 | 85 |
| Jorge Bautista R 2026 · 5.99 FIP | 20 | SP | 5.99 | 13.1% | 16.5% | 3.5% | .297 | 4.83 | 16.8% | 7.5% | 231 | -1.16 | 3.69 | 336 | 85 |
| Luis Mateo R 2028 · 5.17 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.17 | 11.4% | 14.7% | 2.1% | .315 | 5.67 | 15.0% | -1.3% | 55 | +0.50 | 4.52 | 112 | 84 |
| David Sanchez R 2025 · 5.57 FIP | 19 | SP | 5.57 | 11.0% | 13.3% | 3.1% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.33 | 110 | 83 |
| Camilo Sanchez R 2026 · 6.65 FIP | 20 | SP- | 6.65 | 10.0% | 18.5% | 3.8% | .317 | 5.89 | 14.8% | 0.7% | 62 | -0.76 | 3.66 | 117 | 83 |
| Juan Gomez R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.39 | 10.9% | 12.6% | 2.9% | .345 | 3.58 | 11.2% | -0.1% | 61 | -1.81 | 3.58 | 113 | 83 |
| Jose Disla R 2026 · 5.52 FIP | 20 | SP | 5.52 | 15.8% | 13.4% | 3.8% | .296 | 4.46 | 19.7% | 8.8% | 70 | -1.06 | 3.57 | 139 | 83 |
| Darlin Saladin R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.98 | 16.2% | 13.3% | 2.8% | .280 | 3.98 | 18.8% | 7.8% | 255 | -1.00 | 2.91 | 388 | 82 |
| Darlin Alcántara R 2026 · 6.12 FIP | 20 | SP- | 6.12 | 12.3% | 22.2% | 2.3% | .320 | 4.61 | 12.3% | 2.5% | 31 | -1.51 | 3.61 | 118 | 82 |
| Luis Rodriguez R 2025 · 4.96 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.96 | 12.8% | 12.5% | 2.5% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.96 | 111 | 82 |
| Jeter Martinez R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.89 | 15.7% | 15.9% | 2.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 209 | 82 |
| Miguel Vinicio R 2025 · 5.69 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.69 | 13.8% | 14.2% | 3.5% | .327 | 3.98 | 16.9% | 1.4% | 47 | -1.71 | 3.63 | 164 | 82 |
| Harold Chirino R 2025 · 6.05 FIP | 19 | SP- | 6.05 | 13.2% | 16.0% | 3.7% | .327 | 3.11 | 19.0% | 6.2% | 34 | -2.94 | 3.11 | 321 | 82 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 9 | 36 | 17.7% | 12.0% | 1.12 | 5.13 |
| Buck Farmer ('24) | 10 | 50 | 21.6% | 10.5% | 1.23 | 4.59 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Wily Peralta ('22) | 7 | 71 | 16.1% | 9.8% | 1.22 | 4.66 |