Trey Riley
P
Mississippi Braves
Age 28
RHP
6'3" / 205 lbs
AA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 27 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123114vR 105
ERA4.59
FIP4.59
K%22.5%
BB%11.4%
K-BB%11.1%
ROS IP27
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 20 | ROK | Danville Braves | 6 | 2 | 9 | 48 | 13 | 10 | 1 | 33% | 1.5 | 27.1% | 20.8% | 6.2% | 2.1% | 8.00 | 4.60 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK | Danville Braves | 6 | 2 | 9 | 48 | 13 | 10 | 1 | 33% | 1.5 | 27.1% | 20.8% | 6.2% | 2.1% | 8.00 | 4.99 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A | Rome Braves | 17 | 12 | 59 | 286 | 41 | 46 | 4 | 71% | 3.5 | 10.6% | 19.0% | -8.4% | 2.6% | 7.67 | 6.03 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A | Rome Braves | 17 | 12 | 59 | 286 | 41 | 46 | 4 | 71% | 3.5 | 14.3% | 16.1% | -1.7% | 1.4% | 7.67 | 4.94 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Rome Braves | 26 | 0 | 38 | 148 | 32 | 11 | 5 | 0% | 1.5 | 16.6% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 3.29 | 5.96 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Rome Braves | 26 | 0 | 38 | 148 | 32 | 11 | 5 | 0% | 1.5 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 14.2% | 3.4% | 3.29 | 3.99 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 43 | 214 | 47 | 34 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.3% | 16.2% | 2.0% | 5.0% | 5.27 | 6.33 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 43 | 214 | 47 | 34 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.0% | 15.9% | 6.1% | 3.3% | 5.27 | 5.42 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Mississippi Braves | 42 | 0 | 49 | 226 | 59 | 41 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.1% | 20.0% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 4.07 | 4.84 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Mississippi Braves | 42 | 0 | 49 | 226 | 59 | 41 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.1% | 18.1% | 8.0% | 0.9% | 4.07 | 3.74 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Mississippi Braves | 40 | 0 | 45 | 207 | 51 | 28 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 14.9% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 4.80 | 4.48 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Mississippi Braves | 40 | 0 | 45 | 207 | 51 | 28 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 13.5% | 11.1% | 1.4% | 4.80 | 3.57 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 26 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 11.4% | 11.1% | 2.9% | 4.59 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 25 | 0 | 26 | 109 | 24 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 11.4% | 10.9% | 3.0% | 4.64 | 4.70 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 8 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 11.4% | 10.9% | 3.0% | 4.64 | 4.70 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 8 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 11.4% | 10.9% | 3.0% | 4.64 | 4.32 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 198 | 99 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 11.4% | 10.9% | 3.0% | 4.64 | 4.32 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 171 | 14 | 242 | 1129 | 196 | 188 | 36 | 8% | 1.4 | 17.4% | 16.6% | 0.8% | 3.2% | 5.31 | 5.49 | -0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 141 | 12 | 200 | 932 | 162 | 155 | 30 | 8% | 1.4 | 17.4% | 16.6% | 0.8% | 3.2% | 5.31 | 5.49 | -0.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Trey Riley (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.59 | 22.5% | 11.4% | 2.9% | — | 4.70 | 22.3% | 10.9% | 26 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 84 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2028 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 83 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.96 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .275 | 7.33 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +2.37 | 3.78 | 180 | 83 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.87 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .276 | 2.42 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 34 | -1.45 | 2.42 | 125 | 83 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2028 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 82 |
| Joe Colón J R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 82 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2027 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 82 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.18 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.40 | 2.76 | 228 | 81 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.49 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.55 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.06 | 2.51 | 137 | 81 |
| Javy Guerra R 2028 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 81 |
| Grant Sides R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.89 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.1% | .247 | 3.24 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 47 | -0.65 | 3.24 | 159 | 81 |
| Ronald Peña R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.51 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .355 | 4.54 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | +0.03 | 3.57 | 187 | 81 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 1.8% | .333 | 4.06 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.44 | 3.62 | 147 | 80 |
| Luis Mateo R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.33 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .309 | 5.34 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +1.01 | 3.43 | 160 | 80 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.39 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.65 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.26 | 4.39 | 101 | 80 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.46 | 22.6% | 9.0% | 2.1% | .327 | 4.77 | 20.9% | 11.8% | 74 | +1.31 | 2.32 | 676 | 80 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.69 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .297 | 4.04 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.65 | 4.04 | 102 | 80 |
| Daniel Robert R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.60 | 23.3% | 12.5% | 1.6% | .310 | 3.16 | 25.8% | 16.6% | 87 | -0.44 | 2.16 | 186 | 79 |
| Rob Scahill R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.83 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 2.1% | .288 | 3.34 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 171 | -0.49 | 2.93 | 201 | 79 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.63 | 23.3% | 13.6% | 3.2% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 315 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 26 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 1.14 | 4.61 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |