Trey Riley — OGILVIE

Trey Riley P Mississippi Braves

Age 28 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.07

FIP5.07

K%21.2%

BB%14.5%

K-BB%6.7%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	20	ROK MLE	Danville Braves	6	2	9	48	13	10	1	33%	1.5	27.1%	20.8%	6.2%	2.1%	8.00	4.60	—
2018	20	ROK RAW	Danville Braves	6	2	9	48	13	10	1	33%	1.5	27.1%	20.8%	6.2%	2.1%	8.00	4.99	—
2019	21	A MLE	Rome Braves	17	12	59	286	41	46	4	71%	3.5	10.6%	19.0%	-8.4%	2.1%	7.67	5.78	—
2019	21	A RAW	Rome Braves	17	12	59	286	41	46	4	71%	3.5	14.3%	16.1%	-1.7%	1.4%	7.67	4.94	—
2021	23	A+ MLE	Rome Braves	26	0	38	148	32	11	5	0%	1.5	16.6%	8.5%	8.1%	4.9%	3.29	5.46	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	Rome Braves	26	0	38	148	32	11	5	0%	1.5	21.6%	7.4%	14.2%	3.4%	3.29	3.99	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	43	214	47	34	7	0%	1.1	18.3%	16.2%	2.0%	4.6%	5.27	6.12	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	43	214	47	34	7	0%	1.1	22.0%	15.9%	6.1%	3.3%	5.27	5.42	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	42	0	49	226	59	41	2	0%	1.2	21.1%	20.0%	1.2%	1.3%	4.07	4.58	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	42	0	49	226	59	41	2	0%	1.2	21.1%	20.0%	1.2%	1.3%	4.07	4.58	—
2023	25	AA RAW	Mississippi Braves	42	0	49	226	59	41	2	0%	1.2	26.1%	18.1%	8.0%	0.9%	4.07	3.74	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	40	0	45	207	51	28	3	0%	1.1	20.0%	14.9%	5.1%	1.9%	4.80	4.35	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	40	0	45	207	51	28	3	0%	1.1	20.0%	14.9%	5.1%	1.9%	4.80	4.35	—
2024	26	AA RAW	Mississippi Braves	40	0	45	207	51	28	3	0%	1.1	24.6%	13.5%	11.1%	1.4%	4.80	3.57	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	ATL	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	21.2%	14.5%	6.7%	2.8%	5.07	5.07	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	ATL	25	0	26	109	23	15	3	0%	1.0	21.1%	14.2%	7.0%	3.0%	5.07	5.12	-0.2
2027	29	MLB CTX	ATL	8	0	8	34	7	5	1	0%	1.0	21.1%	14.2%	7.0%	3.0%	5.07	5.12	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	8	34	7	5	1	0%	1.0	21.1%	14.2%	7.0%	3.0%	5.07	4.74	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	173	124	25	0%	1.1	21.1%	14.2%	7.0%	3.0%	5.07	4.74	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		171	14	242	1129	196	188	31	8%	1.4	17.4%	16.6%	0.8%	2.8%	5.31	5.25	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		141	12	200	932	162	155	26	8%	1.4	17.4%	16.6%	0.8%	2.8%	5.31	5.25	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trey Riley (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.07	21.2%	14.5%	2.8%	—	5.12	21.1%	7.0%	26	+0.05	—	—	—
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	89
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	85
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	85
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	82
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	82
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	81
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	81
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	81
Theo Denlinger R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	27	SU	4.21	19.8%	15.1%	1.6%	.266	4.23	15.3%	9.9%	41	+0.02	2.92	140	81
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	81
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	80
Erik Davis R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	28	SU	3.95	17.9%	13.5%	1.2%	.363	3.64	21.1%	11.3%	181	-0.31	3.05	227	80
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	80
Gregory Infante R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	28	SU	4.54	16.9%	15.7%	1.6%	.290	3.78	21.3%	12.7%	181	-0.76	2.97	230	79
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	28	SU	4.43	23.3%	13.6%	2.9%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	2.64	315	79
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	78
Josh Zeid R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	28	SU	4.12	16.6%	12.5%	1.6%	.302	5.19	16.9%	5.7%	194	+1.07	4.12	265	78
Kevin Lenik R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	27	SU	4.91	21.7%	14.9%	3.2%	.205	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	107	78
José A. Váldez R 2018 · 4.02 FIP	28	SU	4.02	23.1%	16.2%	1.5%	.325	4.21	16.8%	6.2%	103	+0.19	4.02	328	77
Jake Haberer R 2023 · 5.10 FIP	28	SU	5.10	16.4%	14.7%	2.8%	.262	5.03	16.2%	-1.4%	15	-0.07	3.46	183	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	21.2%	14.3%	1.12	5.07
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99