Luis Martinez-Gomez
P
Knoxville Smokies
Age 23
RHP
6'0" / 178 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION30 act + 62 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125115vR 106
ERA4.66
FIP4.66
K%20.8%
BB%11.6%
K-BB%9.2%
ROS IP62
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 91 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 4 | 0 | 5 | 29 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 17.2% | 27.6% | -10.3% | 3.4% | 21.21 | 7.03 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 4 | 0 | 5 | 29 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 17.2% | 27.6% | -10.3% | 3.4% | 21.21 | 8.89 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 4 | 34 | 145 | 32 | 15 | 2 | 40% | 3.4 | 13.9% | 15.4% | -1.4% | 2.6% | 2.94 | 5.32 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 4 | 34 | 145 | 32 | 15 | 2 | 40% | 3.4 | 22.1% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 1.4% | 2.94 | 3.31 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 55 | 236 | 68 | 34 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 21.5% | 16.9% | 4.6% | 0.6% | 1.46 | 3.79 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 55 | 236 | 68 | 34 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 28.8% | 14.4% | 14.4% | 0.4% | 1.46 | 2.72 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Knoxville Smokies | 9 | 4 | 30 | 126 | 30 | 12 | 3 | 44% | 3.3 | 17.4% | 12.5% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 4.25 | 4.88 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CHC | 59 | 0 | 62 | 260 | 54 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 11.6% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 4.66 | 4.66 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CHC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 11.6% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 4.66 | 4.66 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 91 | 386 | 84 | 42 | 10 | — | — | 21.8% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 2.6% | 4.53 | 4.73 | +0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 20.8% | 11.6% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 4.66 | 4.28 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CHC | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 58 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 10.7% | 11.0% | 2.7% | 4.53 | 4.47 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CHC | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 60 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 10.0% | 12.1% | 2.7% | 4.42 | 4.36 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 60 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 10.0% | 12.4% | 2.7% | 4.36 | 4.33 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 60 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 10.0% | 12.4% | 2.8% | 4.37 | 4.37 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CHC | 27 | 0 | 28 | 118 | 26 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 10.7% | 11.0% | 2.7% | 4.53 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CHC | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 40 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 10.0% | 12.1% | 2.7% | 4.42 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 48 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 10.0% | 12.4% | 2.7% | 4.36 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 51 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 10.0% | 12.4% | 2.8% | 4.37 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 168 | 0 | 176 | 744 | 165 | 75 | 20 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 10.1% | 12.1% | 2.7% | 4.41 | 3.99 | +2.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 187 | 85 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 10.1% | 12.1% | 2.7% | 4.41 | 3.99 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 60 | 8 | 123 | 536 | 98 | 86 | 10 | 13% | 2.1 | 18.3% | 16.1% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.28 | 4.63 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 97 | 13 | 200 | 869 | 159 | 140 | 17 | 13% | 2.1 | 18.3% | 16.1% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.28 | 4.63 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Martinez-Gomez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.66 | 20.8% | 11.6% | 2.7% | — | 4.39 | 22.1% | 11.9% | 191 | -0.27 | — | — | — |
| Alec Barger R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.33 | 21.7% | 13.6% | 2.5% | .289 | 4.24 | 21.3% | 9.4% | 148 | -0.09 | 3.96 | 242 | 92 |
| Billy Corcoran R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.25 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .308 | 4.88 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 188 | +0.63 | 4.17 | 257 | 90 |
| Colby Morris R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .291 | 5.76 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.53 | 4.23 | 105 | 90 |
| William Kempner R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.94 | 21.5% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .277 | 3.32 | 29.2% | 14.5% | 112 | -0.62 | 3.29 | 173 | 89 |
| Shane Broyles R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.90 | 21.9% | 11.5% | 2.2% | .338 | 3.59 | 25.7% | 14.5% | 159 | -0.31 | 3.10 | 218 | 88 |
| Jhonny Polanco R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.76 | 18.9% | 14.2% | 2.7% | .283 | 3.92 | 21.3% | 5.7% | 48 | -0.84 | 3.92 | 116 | 87 |
| Joan Gregorio R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.56 | 18.0% | 10.2% | 3.1% | .269 | 4.23 | 21.1% | 11.1% | 208 | -0.33 | 3.60 | 301 | 87 |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2028 · 4.19 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.19 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.43 | 18.4% | 2.3% | 111 | +0.24 | 3.87 | 192 | 87 |
| Brendan Collins R 2025 · 3.60 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.60 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 1.9% | .294 | 3.85 | 20.2% | 5.1% | 54 | +0.25 | 3.60 | 122 | 87 |
| Kyle Marman R 2025 · 3.98 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.98 | 22.2% | 12.8% | 2.1% | .270 | 5.27 | 22.5% | 8.4% | 71 | +1.29 | 3.98 | 117 | 86 |
| Andrew Politi R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.56 | 22.6% | 13.0% | 1.3% | .274 | 4.52 | 23.4% | 13.0% | 144 | +0.96 | 3.45 | 292 | 86 |
| T.J. Weir R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.49 | 19.9% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.67 | 19.6% | 11.1% | 234 | +0.18 | 3.21 | 349 | 86 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.86 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 2.5% | .353 | 4.73 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 54 | +0.87 | 3.86 | 106 | 86 |
| Corey Black R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.14 | 22.1% | 13.9% | 2.1% | .310 | 3.60 | 22.1% | 6.0% | 53 | -0.54 | 3.60 | 139 | 86 |
| Brett Standlee R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.00 | 19.7% | 11.1% | 2.1% | .322 | 4.33 | 17.0% | 8.9% | 75 | +0.33 | 4.00 | 128 | 86 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.21 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.0% | .245 | 4.19 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.02 | 3.95 | 142 | 86 |
| Bailey Dees R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.23 | 21.3% | 13.2% | 2.3% | .248 | 4.32 | 21.4% | 9.6% | 278 | +0.09 | 3.40 | 330 | 85 |
| Owen Holt R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.89 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .258 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 107 | +0.63 | 3.89 | 145 | 85 |
| Andrew Bellatti R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.32 | 19.3% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.71 | 278 | 85 |
| Luke Bell R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .295 | 5.85 | 13.1% | 1.3% | 66 | +1.96 | 3.89 | 110 | 85 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 63 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 1.04 | 4.47 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Archie Bradley ('21) | 6 | 74 | 23.2% | 9.8% | 0.85 | 3.93 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |