Jimmy Kingsbury

P Arkansas Travelers

Age 28 RHP 5'11" / 190 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	40	2	62	2.76	3.13	22.2%	8.4%	—	K 17.6% · BB 9.7% · FIP 3.78
2025	26	AASEA	44	2	71	2.93	2.90	21.1%	6.3%	—	K 17.1% · BB 6.9% · FIP 3.69
2026	27	AASEA	39	0	58	4.17	2.86	24.1%	7.2%	—	K 19.5% · BB 8.0% · FIP 3.52
2027PROJ	28	MLBSEA	1	0	1	4.38	4.38	17.6%	7.4%	0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBSEA	16	0	17	4.46	4.51	17.9%	7.8%	0.0
2029PROJ51% MLB	30	MLBSEA	22	0	23	4.58	4.67	18.0%	8.2%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control60Command50

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 0.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsTyler Walker (age 28) · Coleman Huntley III (age 28) · Edwin Quirarte (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.38

FIP4.38

K%17.6%

BB%7.4%

K-BB%10.2%

Proj IP69

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL6060

CMD5050

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	8	7	33	132	39	11	2	88%	4.1	21.9%	9.8%	12.0%	2.3%	2.20	3.76	—
2021	22	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	8	7	33	132	39	11	2	88%	4.1	29.5%	8.3%	21.2%	1.5%	2.20	2.52	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	11	53	241	56	23	1	69%	3.3	18.3%	12.4%	5.9%	0.7%	4.39	3.51	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	11	53	241	56	23	1	69%	3.3	23.2%	9.5%	13.7%	0.4%	4.39	2.54	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	31	8	60	266	63	23	9	26%	1.9	18.2%	9.9%	8.3%	4.2%	4.65	5.11	—
2023	24	A+ RAW	Everett AquaSox	31	8	60	266	63	23	9	26%	1.9	23.7%	8.6%	15.0%	3.4%	4.65	4.10	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	2	62	261	58	22	4	5%	1.6	17.6%	9.7%	7.9%	1.7%	2.76	3.78	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	2	62	261	58	22	4	5%	1.6	17.6%	9.7%	7.9%	1.7%	2.76	3.78	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	2	62	261	58	22	4	5%	1.6	22.2%	8.4%	13.8%	1.5%	2.76	3.13	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	44	2	71	285	60	18	4	5%	1.6	17.1%	6.9%	10.1%	2.1%	2.93	3.69	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	44	2	71	285	60	18	4	5%	1.6	17.1%	6.9%	10.1%	2.1%	2.93	3.69	—
2025	26	AA RAW	Arkansas Travelers	44	2	71	285	60	18	4	5%	1.6	21.1%	6.3%	14.7%	1.4%	2.93	2.90	—
2026	27	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	39	0	58	249	60	18	4	0%	1.5	19.5%	8.0%	11.6%	1.9%	4.17	3.52	—
2026	27	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	39	0	58	249	60	18	4	0%	1.5	19.5%	8.0%	11.6%	1.9%	4.17	3.52	—
2026	27	AA RAW	Arkansas Travelers	39	0	58	249	60	18	4	0%	1.5	24.1%	7.2%	16.9%	1.6%	4.17	2.86	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	SEA	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	17.6%	7.4%	10.2%	2.6%	4.38	4.38	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	SEA	51	0	53	225	40	18	6	0%	1.0	17.9%	7.8%	10.1%	2.8%	4.46	4.51	+0.0
2029	30	MLB MLE	SEA	43	0	45	189	34	15	6	0%	1.0	18.0%	8.2%	9.8%	3.0%	4.58	4.67	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	SEA	16	0	17	72	13	6	2	0%	1.1	17.9%	7.8%	10.1%	2.8%	4.46	4.51	+0.0
2029	30	MLB CTX	SEA	22	0	23	97	17	8	3	0%	1.0	18.0%	8.2%	9.8%	3.0%	4.58	4.67	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		38	0	40	167	30	13	5	0%	1.0	18.0%	8.0%	9.9%	2.9%	4.53	4.22	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	151	66	25	0%	1.1	18.0%	8.0%	9.9%	2.9%	4.53	4.22	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		178	30	337	1434	265	134	31	17%	1.9	18.5%	9.4%	9.1%	2.2%	3.58	3.92	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		106	18	200	851	157	80	18	17%	1.9	18.5%	9.4%	9.1%	2.2%	3.58	3.92	-0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAArkansas Travelers · 58 IPFIP 2.86 → 3.52 (+0.65)K% 24.1% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.10%	—	×0.810	19.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.23%	—	×1.100	7.95%
HR / BF /BF	1.61%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.93%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.86 → 3.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAArkansas Travelers · 71 IPFIP 2.89 → 3.69 (+0.80)K% 21.1% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.05%	—	×0.810	17.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.32%	—	×1.100	6.95%
HR / BF /BF	1.40%	÷0.800	×1.200	2.10%

Result: FIP 2.89 → 3.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Everett AquaSox · 60 IPFIP 3.12 → 3.78 (+0.66)K% 22.9% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.89%	—	×0.770	17.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.43%	—	×1.150	9.70%
HR / BF /BF	1.61%	÷1.175	×1.250	1.71%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 135).

Result: FIP 3.12 → 3.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Everett AquaSox · 60 IPFIP 4.05 → 5.11 (+1.06)K% 23.7% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.68%	—	×0.770	18.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.65%	—	×1.150	9.94%
HR / BF /BF	3.38%	÷1.012	×1.250	4.18%

Result: FIP 4.05 → 5.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AModesto Nuts · 48 IPFIP 2.60 → 3.51 (+0.92)K% 24.8% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.77%	—	×0.740	18.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.55%	—	×1.180	12.45%
HR / BF /BF	0.46%	÷0.855	×1.300	0.70%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 71).

Result: FIP 2.60 → 3.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Everett AquaSox · 5 IPFIP 2.37 → 2.53 (+0.17)K% 8.7% → 6.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	8.70%	—	×0.770	6.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.150	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.237	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.37 → 2.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AModesto Nuts · 33 IPFIP 2.49 → 3.76 (+1.26)K% 29.5% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.55%	—	×0.740	21.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×1.180	9.83%
HR / BF /BF	1.52%	÷0.861	×1.300	2.29%

Result: FIP 2.49 → 3.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jimmy Kingsbury (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.38	17.6%	7.4%	2.6%	—	4.58	17.9%	10.0%	98	+0.20	—	—	—
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	86
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	86
Edwin Quirarte R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	28	SW	3.41	16.7%	6.2%	1.7%	.311	3.48	12.7%	4.9%	83	+0.06	3.16	157	84
Miguel Mejia R 2016 · 3.37 FIP	28	SU	3.37	19.6%	7.2%	1.8%	.359	5.21	12.8%	2.8%	47	+1.84	3.37	108	84
Shawn Camp R 2004 · 4.18 FIP	28	SU	4.18	17.8%	5.2%	3.5%	.305	3.88	15.5%	10.5%	164	-0.30	2.79	589	84
Donovan Hand R 2013 · 4.72 FIP	27	SW	4.72	12.9%	7.0%	3.3%	.279	4.30	11.1%	6.8%	97	-0.42	4.30	305	83
Geoff Geary R 2005 · 3.65 FIP	28	SU	3.65	17.0%	6.9%	2.0%	.268	3.57	15.1%	9.0%	223	-0.08	3.16	345	83
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	82
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	82
Dalier Hinojosa R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	29	SU	3.41	20.4%	9.8%	1.4%	.283	4.30	18.7%	6.1%	24	+0.89	3.41	104	82
Francisco Mendoza R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	17.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	120	82
Jhan Mariñez R 2017 · 3.97 FIP	28	SU	3.97	17.2%	8.8%	2.2%	.309	4.09	21.2%	13.3%	48	+0.12	3.16	253	82
Murphy Smith R 2016 · 3.54 FIP	28	SU	3.54	19.3%	9.3%	1.6%	.245	4.43	13.6%	6.8%	145	+0.89	3.16	300	81
J.J. Putz R 2005 · 4.36 FIP	28	SU	4.36	17.4%	8.1%	3.1%	.270	2.24	31.4%	25.1%	196	-2.12	1.43	563	81
Santiago Casilla R 2008 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	18.8%	7.9%	2.2%	.337	3.37	20.6%	10.4%	155	-0.34	2.76	647	81
Andrew Robinson R 2016 · 3.19 FIP	28	SU	3.19	22.2%	7.9%	1.8%	.247	4.32	23.4%	14.6%	39	+1.13	3.19	160	81
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	81
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	81
John Church R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	28	SU	3.84	13.2%	5.7%	2.1%	.278	2.78	17.7%	8.4%	30	-1.06	2.78	101	81
Johnny Magliozzi R 2017 · 3.22 FIP	26	SU	3.22	17.1%	5.9%	1.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.22	131	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	56	17.8%	7.8%	1.09	4.46
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Trevor Gott ('15-'23, -1 WAR*)	1.2	61	18.5%*	8.4%*	1.01*	4.85*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Mike Perez ('90-'97, 3 WAR*)	1.7	58	18.5%*	8.2%*	0.88*	3.86*
John Morris ('66-'74, -0 WAR*)	1.2	58	18.3%*	8.2%*	1.00*	4.74*