Jimmy Kingsbury
P
Arkansas Travelers
+0.5
WAR
Age 27
RHP
5'11" / 190 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.5 · 2026
ERA4.35
FIP4.35
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.1%
BB%8.4%
K-BB%11.7%
IP66
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2026
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A | Modesto Nuts | 8 | 7 | 33 | 132 | 39 | 11 | 2 | 21.9% | 9.8% | 2.3% | 2.20 | 3.78 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 16 | 11 | 53 | 241 | 56 | 23 | 1 | 18.3% | 12.4% | 0.7% | 4.39 | 3.49 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 31 | 8 | 60 | 266 | 63 | 23 | 9 | 18.2% | 9.9% | 4.2% | 4.65 | 5.12 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 40 | 2 | 62 | 261 | 58 | 22 | 4 | 17.6% | 9.7% | 1.7% | 2.76 | 3.75 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 44 | 2 | 71 | 285 | 60 | 18 | 4 | 17.1% | 6.9% | 2.2% | 2.93 | 3.72 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.86 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | SEA | 12 | 12 | 66 | 280 | 56 | 23 | 8 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 2.7% | 4.35 | 4.35 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 69 | 290 | 59 | 24 | 8 | 20.4% | 8.4% | 2.6% | 4.33 | 4.20 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 12 | 12 | 65 | 276 | 56 | 23 | 8 | 20.3% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 4.36 | 4.37 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 12 | 12 | 64 | 270 | 55 | 23 | 8 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 4.39 | 4.41 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 11 | 11 | 62 | 262 | 53 | 23 | 8 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.47 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 60 | — | 60 | 252 | 51 | 22 | 8 | 20.2% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 4.50 | 4.54 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 57 | — | 57 | 242 | 48 | 22 | 7 | 20.0% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 4.58 | 4.63 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | SEA | 55 | — | 55 | 231 | 45 | 21 | 7 | 19.7% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 4.67 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | SEA | 52 | — | 52 | 220 | 42 | 21 | 7 | 19.3% | 9.4% | 3.3% | 4.77 | 4.83 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | SEA | 49 | — | 49 | 207 | 39 | 20 | 7 | 18.9% | 9.7% | 3.4% | 4.88 | 4.96 | -0.0 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | SEA | 46 | — | 46 | 194 | 36 | 19 | 7 | 18.5% | 9.9% | 3.5% | 5.01 | 5.09 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 141 | 30 | 281 | 1195 | 219 | 116 | 26 | 18.3% | 9.7% | 2.2% | 3.46 | 3.98 | +4.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 100 | 21 | 200 | 851 | 156 | 83 | 19 | 18.3% | 9.7% | 2.2% | 3.46 | 3.98 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jimmy Kingsbury (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.35 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 2.7% | — | 4.42 | 20.4% | 11.8% | 191 | +0.07 | — | — | — |
| Andrew Robinson R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.75 | 17.6% | 6.3% | 2.4% | .246 | 3.68 | 22.7% | 14.4% | 97 | -0.07 | 3.25 | 160 | 90 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.91 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .348 | 3.55 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.36 | 2.38 | 160 | 90 |
| Anthony Bass R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.57 | 16.5% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .300 | 3.43 | 21.6% | 14.2% | 123 | -0.14 | 2.83 | 432 | 89 |
| Pedro Beato R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.46 | 17.4% | 7.5% | 1.6% | .276 | 3.94 | 19.0% | 11.2% | 192 | +0.48 | 3.46 | 295 | 89 |
| Ryan Kelly R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.50 | 20.3% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .241 | 3.22 | 20.8% | 14.2% | 43 | -0.28 | 2.49 | 131 | 89 |
| Conor Mullee R 2026 · 3.28 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.28 | 17.7% | 7.2% | 1.4% | .290 | 2.64 | 24.2% | 16.3% | 55 | -0.64 | 2.17 | 110 | 89 |
| Bryan Evans R 2027 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.19 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 3.3% | .250 | 4.61 | 19.7% | 14.9% | 132 | +0.42 | 3.86 | 231 | 89 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2027 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.34 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.07 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.73 | 3.25 | 150 | 89 |
| Ryan Doolittle R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.04 | 15.1% | 6.7% | 2.5% | .315 | 4.38 | 13.9% | 6.8% | 44 | +0.34 | 4.04 | 101 | 88 |
| Jorge Reyes R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.66 | 15.9% | 8.5% | 3.3% | .307 | 3.46 | 14.2% | 6.2% | 129 | -1.20 | 3.35 | 227 | 88 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.72 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .333 | 4.05 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.33 | 3.70 | 147 | 88 |
| Edwin Quirarte R 2027 · 3.43 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.43 | 16.7% | 6.2% | 1.7% | .311 | 3.46 | 12.7% | 4.9% | 83 | +0.03 | 3.18 | 157 | 88 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.18 | 18.6% | 6.7% | 1.5% | .294 | 4.05 | 19.0% | 10.6% | 106 | +0.87 | 3.18 | 253 | 87 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2027 · 3.35 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.35 | 19.6% | 7.2% | 1.8% | .359 | 5.13 | 12.8% | 2.8% | 47 | +1.78 | 3.35 | 108 | 87 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.80 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .295 | 3.70 | 12.4% | 5.2% | 127 | -0.10 | 3.17 | 269 | 87 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.91 | 20.4% | 6.8% | 3.0% | .276 | 3.53 | 23.3% | 15.0% | 198 | -0.38 | 2.86 | 596 | 87 |
| Troy Neiman R 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.99 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 199 | 86 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.78 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .297 | 3.85 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.85 | 102 | 86 |
| Tristan Archer R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.69 | 18.0% | 7.2% | 2.2% | .286 | 5.08 | 15.0% | 6.8% | 30 | +1.39 | 2.44 | 321 | 85 |
| Sean Donatello R 2025 · 3.64 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.64 | 17.8% | 7.4% | 2.0% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.22 | 141 | 85 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.2 | $0.9M | +$0.0M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.2M | +0.1 | $0.5M | +$0.2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.1 | $0.5M | +$0.1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | — | — | — |
| Totals | $11M | $5M | -$6M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.