Ryan Zeferjahn

P Chicago Cubs

Age 29 RHP 6'5" / 209 lbs MLB peak 0.4 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX3 levels	42	1	63	3.00	2.61	30.3%	9.6%	1.5	K 26.6% · BB 9.0% · FIP 3.05
2025	27	MLBLAA	62	1	57	4.74	4.96	28.4%	12.5%	-0.3
2026	28	MLBCHC	65	0	70	3.88	3.21	30.9%	11.5%	1.1
2027PROJ	29	MLBCHC	57	0	60	3.97	4.02	31.2%	12.1%	0.4
2028PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBCHC	45	0	47	4.13	4.23	30.6%	12.4%	0.2
2029PROJ95% MLB	31	MLBCHC	36	0	38	4.33	4.46	29.8%	12.8%	0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

K%90

xwOBA vs90

Form4.12 ERA (proj 3.97) · K 26.4% (proj 31.2%) · BB 9.2% (proj 12.1%) · last 90d · 20 IP through Oct 27

CompsBrad Lidge (age 29) · Manny Acosta (age 29) · John Brebbia (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9991vR 83

ERA3.97

FIP4.02

K%31.2%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%19.1%

Proj IP61

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL3030

CMD5050

K†7070

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.5

Whiff%

p9032.0%

p9031.0%

xwOBA vs

p900.273

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	56	250	59	18	4	100%	3.5	17.0%	8.6%	8.5%	2.4%	5.98	4.06	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	16	56	250	59	18	4	100%	3.5	23.6%	7.2%	16.4%	1.6%	5.98	2.88	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	5	71	305	80	33	7	15%	2.1	21.0%	12.4%	8.5%	2.8%	5.05	4.45	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	5	71	305	80	33	7	15%	2.1	26.2%	10.8%	15.4%	2.3%	5.05	3.52	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	1	46	216	70	40	7	3%	1.3	27.0%	21.6%	5.4%	3.9%	4.70	5.71	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	1	46	216	70	40	7	3%	1.3	32.4%	18.5%	13.9%	3.2%	4.70	4.64	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	1	63	261	79	25	4	2%	1.5	26.6%	9.0%	17.5%	1.9%	3.00	3.05	+1.1
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	1	63	261	79	25	4	2%	1.5	26.6%	9.0%	17.5%	1.9%	3.00	3.05	+1.1
2024	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	42	1	63	261	79	25	4	2%	1.5	30.3%	9.6%	20.7%	1.5%	3.00	2.61	+1.5
2025	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	62	1	57	257	73	32	12	2%	0.9	28.4%	12.5%	16.0%	4.6%	4.74	4.79	-0.2
2025	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	62	1	57	257	73	32	12	2%	0.9	28.4%	12.5%	16.0%	4.6%	4.74	4.79	-0.2
2025	27	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	62	1	57	257	73	32	12	2%	0.9	28.4%	12.5%	16.0%	4.7%	4.74	4.96	-0.3
2026	28	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	65	0	70	304	94	35	7	0%	1.1	30.9%	11.5%	19.4%	2.4%	3.88	3.26	+1.1
2026	28	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	65	0	70	304	94	35	7	0%	1.1	30.9%	11.5%	19.4%	2.4%	3.88	3.26	+1.1
2026	28	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	65	0	70	304	94	35	7	0%	1.1	30.9%	11.5%	19.4%	2.3%	3.88	3.21	+1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			139	1	144	625	185	72	19	1%	1.0	29.6%	11.5%	18.1%	3.0%	4.01	3.75	+1.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	CHC	57	0	60	253	79	31	8	0%	1.1	31.2%	12.1%	19.1%	3.0%	3.97	4.02	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	CHC	47	0	50	210	64	26	7	0%	1.1	30.6%	12.4%	18.1%	3.2%	4.13	4.23	+0.2
2029	31	MLB MLE	CHC	38	0	40	170	51	22	6	0%	1.1	29.8%	12.8%	17.0%	3.4%	4.33	4.46	+0.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	CHC	45	0	47	198	61	25	6	0%	1.0	30.6%	12.4%	18.1%	3.2%	4.13	4.23	+0.2
2029	31	MLB CTX	CHC	36	0	38	160	48	20	5	0%	1.1	29.8%	12.8%	17.0%	3.4%	4.33	4.46	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		220	1	229	986	294	117	31	0%	1.0	29.8%	11.9%	17.9%	3.1%	4.09	3.81	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		192	1	200	861	257	102	27	0%	1.0	29.8%	11.9%	17.9%	3.1%	4.09	3.81	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		255	24	363	1593	401	197	47	9%	1.4	25.2%	12.3%	12.8%	3.0%	4.52	4.16	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		141	13	200	878	221	108	26	9%	1.4	25.2%	12.3%	12.8%	3.0%	4.52	4.16	+1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAASalt Lake Bees · 32 IPFIP 3.84 → 4.38 (+0.54)K% 27.3% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.27%	—	×0.860	23.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.89%	—	×0.900	10.70%
HR / BF /BF	2.80%	÷0.886	×1.100	3.47%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 77).

Result: FIP 3.84 → 4.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 14 IPFIP 0.36 → 1.09 (+0.72)K% 40.7% → 33.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.74%	—	×0.810	33.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.56%	—	×1.100	6.11%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.018	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 104).

Result: FIP 0.36 → 1.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 43 IPFIP 4.65 → 5.71 (+1.06)K% 33.3% → 27.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.810	27.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.61%	—	×1.100	21.57%
HR / BF /BF	3.43%	÷1.048	×1.200	3.93%

Result: FIP 4.65 → 5.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Greenville Drive · 61 IPFIP 3.40 → 4.45 (+1.05)K% 27.2% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.24%	—	×0.770	20.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.82%	—	×1.150	12.44%
HR / BF /BF	2.24%	÷0.996	×1.250	2.81%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP 3.40 → 4.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 11 IPFIP 4.36 → 5.09 (+0.73)K% 18.9% → 15.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.92%	—	×0.810	15.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.81%	—	×1.100	11.89%
HR / BF /BF	2.70%	÷1.004	×1.200	3.23%

Result: FIP 4.36 → 5.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ASalem Red Sox · 42 IPFIP 2.86 → 3.79 (+0.93)K% 21.1% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.13%	—	×0.740	15.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.73%	—	×1.180	9.12%
HR / BF /BF	1.03%	÷0.858	×1.300	1.56%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 72).

Result: FIP 2.86 → 3.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKFCL Red Sox · 14 IPFIP 3.02 → 4.99 (+1.96)K% 32.1% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.14%	—	×0.680	21.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.36%	—	×1.250	6.70%
HR / BF /BF	3.57%	÷0.951	×1.400	5.26%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 3.02 → 4.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Zeferjahn (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.02	31.2%	12.1%	3.0%	—	4.33	30.2%	17.6%	90	+0.31	—	—	—
Brad Lidge R 2006 · 3.32 FIP	29	SU	3.32	30.6%	9.4%	2.9%	.304	3.37	28.2%	18.0%	195	+0.05	1.56	595	74
Manny Acosta R 2010 · 3.61 FIP	29	SU	3.61	26.8%	10.8%	2.5%	.277	4.12	21.9%	12.6%	94	+0.51	3.08	350	73
John Brebbia R 2019 · 2.89 FIP	29	SU	2.89	28.6%	8.2%	2.1%	.285	3.34	22.8%	17.4%	102	+0.45	2.89	576	72
Jose Veras R 2010 · 4.10 FIP	29	SU	4.10	26.9%	14.4%	2.6%	.239	3.42	25.3%	14.8%	201	-0.68	3.37	422	72
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2000 · 3.93 FIP	32	SU	3.93	29.4%	9.8%	3.8%	.212	2.88	24.9%	19.3%	161	-1.05	2.76	223	71
Brad Brach R 2015 · 3.22 FIP	29	SU	3.22	27.5%	10.8%	1.9%	.259	3.13	25.6%	17.1%	210	-0.09	2.69	570	71
Ray Black R 2019 · 4.89 FIP	29	SU	4.89	30.8%	13.2%	5.0%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	150	71
Chad Fox R 2001 · 3.17 FIP	30	SU	3.17	27.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.221	3.70	23.2%	9.6%	43	+0.53	2.82	194	71
Jose Valverde R 2007 · 3.26 FIP	29	SU	3.26	29.4%	9.4%	2.6%	.252	3.44	25.9%	17.1%	189	+0.18	2.21	752	71
Heath Hembree R 2018 · 4.06 FIP	29	SU	4.06	29.2%	10.0%	3.9%	.291	4.73	29.7%	20.4%	117	+0.67	2.52	382	71
Trevor May R 2019 · 3.43 FIP	29	SU	3.43	29.7%	9.4%	3.0%	.227	3.57	32.0%	24.4%	111	+0.14	3.05	477	70
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	70
Kaleb Ort R 2021 · 2.91 FIP	29	SU	2.91	27.3%	9.4%	1.7%	.310	3.98	24.8%	15.3%	157	+1.07	1.75	423	70
Steve Delabar R 2012 · 3.82 FIP	29	SU	3.82	33.6%	9.1%	4.4%	.234	3.44	26.9%	15.9%	139	-0.38	2.43	229	69
Scott Oberg R 2019 · 3.19 FIP	29	SU	3.19	26.0%	9.4%	2.0%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	2.54	302	69
Cody Hall R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	26.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.299	3.92	25.9%	8.4%	19	-0.11	3.51	134	69
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	68
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2012 · 3.90 FIP	28	SU	3.90	25.2%	8.7%	3.3%	.299	3.34	26.5%	16.9%	75	-0.56	3.34	335	68
Pedro Báez R 2017 · 4.08 FIP	29	SU	4.08	22.9%	9.6%	3.1%	.261	3.18	24.7%	16.1%	143	-0.90	2.29	356	68
Jumbo Diaz R 2014 · 2.87 FIP	30	SU	2.87	26.1%	7.0%	2.0%	.283	3.64	23.0%	15.0%	186	+0.77	2.80	319	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	59	30.1%	12.7%	1.20	4.07
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Ernesto Frieri ('17)	1.5	51	30.1%	11.1%	1.25	3.59
Antonio Bastardo ('17)	2.0	56	28.0%	11.4%	1.01	4.01
Rex Brothers ('21)	1.6	54	27.6%	13.5%	0.98	4.08
Alberto Reyes ('95-'08, 5 WAR*)	2.1	54	27.1%*	10.2%*	1.18*	3.66*
Rod Scurry ('80-'88, 5 WAR*)	2.3	58	29.6%*	13.6%*	0.91*	3.67*