Ryan Zeferjahn — OGILVIE

Ryan Zeferjahn P Chicago Cubs

Age 28 RHP 6'5" / 209 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION65 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9890vR 82

ERA3.78

FIP3.90

K%30.6%

BB%12.2%

K-BB%18.4%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 71 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL3030

CMD5050

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.4

Whiff%

p9032.0%

p9031.4%

xwOBA vs

p860.277

SL+0.8 (49%)

SI (16%)

CU (2%)

FB (50%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	56	250	59	18	4	100%	3.5	17.0%	8.6%	8.5%	2.4%	5.98	4.06	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	16	56	250	59	18	4	100%	3.5	23.6%	7.2%	16.4%	1.6%	5.98	2.88	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	5	71	305	80	33	7	15%	2.1	21.0%	12.4%	8.5%	2.8%	5.05	4.45	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	5	71	305	80	33	7	15%	2.1	26.2%	10.8%	15.4%	2.3%	5.05	3.52	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	1	46	216	70	40	7	3%	1.3	27.0%	21.6%	5.4%	3.9%	4.70	5.71	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	1	46	216	70	40	7	3%	1.3	27.0%	21.6%	5.4%	3.9%	4.70	5.71	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	1	46	216	70	40	7	3%	1.3	32.4%	18.5%	13.9%	3.2%	4.70	4.64	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	1	63	261	79	25	4	2%	1.5	26.1%	9.0%	17.1%	1.9%	3.00	3.08	+1.1
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	1	63	261	79	25	4	2%	1.5	26.1%	9.0%	17.1%	1.9%	3.00	3.08	+1.1
2024	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	42	1	63	261	79	25	4	2%	1.5	30.3%	9.6%	20.7%	1.5%	3.00	2.61	+1.5
2025	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	62	1	57	257	73	32	12	2%	0.9	28.4%	12.5%	16.0%	4.6%	4.74	4.79	-0.2
2025	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	62	1	57	257	73	32	12	2%	0.9	28.4%	12.5%	16.0%	4.6%	4.74	4.79	-0.2
2025	27	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	62	1	57	257	73	32	12	2%	0.9	28.4%	12.5%	16.0%	4.7%	4.74	4.96	-0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			134	1	139	605	180	71	19	1%	1.0	29.8%	11.7%	18.0%	3.1%	4.14	3.82	+1.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	60	0	65	284	89	34	7	0%	1.1	31.3%	12.0%	19.4%	2.6%	4.15	3.38	+0.9
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	60	0	65	284	89	34	7	0%	1.1	31.3%	12.0%	19.4%	2.6%	4.15	3.38	+0.9
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	MLB RAW	CHC	60	0	65	284	89	34	7	0%	1.1	31.3%	12.0%	19.4%	2.5%	4.15	3.32	+0.9
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	CHC	60	0	65	284	89	34	7	0%	1.1	31.3%	12.0%	19.4%	2.5%	4.15	3.32	+0.9
ROS	28	MLB MLE	CHC	6	0	6	24	7	3	1	0%	1.0	30.6%	12.2%	18.4%	3.4%	3.78	3.90	+0.0
ROS	28	MLB CTX	CHC	6	0	6	25	8	3	1	0%	1.0	30.6%	12.2%	18.4%	3.4%	3.78	3.90	+0.0
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	CHC	—	—	71	308	96	37	8	—	—	31.3%	12.0%	19.3%	2.5%	4.12	3.42	+1.1
FULL	28	MLB A+C	CHC	—	—	71	299	96	37	8	—	—	32.3%	12.4%	19.9%	2.6%	4.12	3.38	+1.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	CHC	62	0	66	277	83	34	9	0%	1.1	29.9%	12.4%	17.4%	3.3%	4.21	4.32	+0.2
2028	30	MLB MLE	CHC	59	0	62	260	76	33	9	0%	1.0	29.2%	12.8%	16.4%	3.5%	4.40	4.53	+0.0
2027	29	MLB CTX	CHC	59	0	62	262	78	33	9	0%	1.1	29.9%	12.4%	17.4%	3.3%	4.21	4.32	+0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	CHC	56	0	59	249	73	32	9	0%	1.1	29.2%	12.8%	16.4%	3.5%	4.40	4.53	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		255	1	266	1139	338	138	37	0%	1.0	29.7%	12.1%	17.5%	3.2%	4.21	3.91	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		192	1	200	858	255	104	28	0%	1.0	29.7%	12.1%	17.5%	3.2%	4.21	3.91	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		250	24	358	1573	395	196	47	10%	1.4	25.1%	12.4%	12.7%	3.0%	4.58	4.20	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		140	13	200	879	221	109	26	10%	1.4	25.1%	12.4%	12.7%	3.0%	4.58	4.20	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Zeferjahn (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.45	29.6%	12.4%	3.5%	—	4.42	29.5%	16.9%	127	-0.03	—	—	—
Jon Edwards R 2015 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	31.7%	13.1%	2.4%	.264	2.40	30.3%	22.6%	30	-1.00	2.40	132	82
Trevor May R 2018 · 3.74 FIP	28	SU	3.74	26.1%	9.8%	2.9%	.291	3.47	31.9%	23.6%	150	-0.27	3.05	432	76
Liam Hendriks R 2017 · 3.30 FIP	28	SU	3.30	28.6%	8.4%	2.8%	.303	1.71	35.2%	30.1%	160	-1.59	0.63	495	75
Tommy Kahnle R 2018 · 3.46 FIP	28	SU	3.46	29.2%	12.4%	2.3%	.353	2.99	35.5%	27.4%	61	-0.47	1.53	458	75
Neil Ramírez R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	28	SU	4.66	27.1%	12.5%	4.1%	.389	4.86	29.1%	19.7%	116	+0.20	3.21	220	75
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	159	75
Neftalí Feliz R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	28	SU	4.62	28.0%	9.2%	5.0%	.236	5.02	17.1%	4.4%	138	+0.40	3.54	291	74
Michael Flynn R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	26.5%	11.2%	3.7%	.299	4.42	20.8%	10.2%	92	+0.11	3.89	168	74
Bryan Shaw R 2016 · 3.73 FIP	28	SU	3.73	25.1%	9.1%	2.9%	.277	3.83	21.1%	12.7%	203	+0.10	2.78	596	74
Daniel Hudson R 2015 · 3.35 FIP	28	SU	3.35	24.5%	7.9%	2.4%	.302	3.78	22.8%	13.6%	168	+0.43	1.68	468	74
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	73
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	73
Parker Markel R 2019 · 4.87 FIP	28	SU	4.87	29.7%	16.5%	4.0%	.250	4.33	28.9%	11.6%	97	-0.54	3.18	266	73
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	212	73
Shane Greene R 2017 · 3.48 FIP	28	SU	3.48	25.8%	10.6%	2.2%	.253	3.86	23.4%	16.9%	154	+0.38	2.86	484	73
Blake Treinen R 2016 · 3.32 FIP	28	SU	3.32	24.0%	9.5%	1.9%	.271	3.04	26.0%	17.7%	215	-0.28	1.53	547	72
Steven Wilson R 2023 · 4.12 FIP	28	SU	4.12	26.0%	11.9%	3.1%	.217	4.57	20.8%	10.9%	119	+0.45	3.64	328	72
Michael Tonkin R 2017 · 3.32 FIP	27	SU	3.32	29.2%	9.6%	2.7%	.309	6.30	21.8%	8.3%	22	+2.98	2.31	480	71
Dayan Díaz R 2017 · 3.45 FIP	28	SU	3.45	25.1%	8.7%	2.5%	.358	3.96	29.4%	19.3%	16	+0.51	3.08	205	71
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	65	29.6%	12.5%	1.31	4.31
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Michael Feliz ('21)	1.2	47	30.5%	9.8%	1.48	5.05
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82