Richard Guasch — OGILVIE

Richard Guasch P Chesapeake Baysox

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 205 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 58 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.25

FIP4.25

K%24.4%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%13.4%

ROS IP59

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4545

CMD5555

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	20	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	7	5	23	92	27	4	1	71%	3.3	20.0%	5.4%	14.5%	1.5%	1.16	2.94	—
2018	20	ROK RAW	DSL Athletics	7	5	23	92	27	4	1	71%	3.3	29.3%	4.3%	25.0%	1.1%	1.16	1.86	—
2019	21	A MLE	Beloit Snappers	18	10	60	264	77	37	1	56%	3.3	21.6%	16.5%	5.0%	0.5%	4.53	3.64	—
2019	21	A RAW	Beloit Snappers	18	10	60	264	77	37	1	56%	3.3	29.2%	14.0%	15.2%	0.4%	4.53	2.60	—
2021	23	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	19	14	74	346	92	46	10	74%	3.9	20.5%	15.3%	5.2%	4.0%	4.26	5.50	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	19	14	74	346	92	46	10	74%	3.9	26.6%	13.3%	13.3%	2.9%	4.26	4.24	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	8	64	294	82	43	5	28%	2.2	22.3%	16.2%	6.1%	2.1%	6.05	4.41	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	8	64	294	82	43	5	28%	2.2	27.9%	14.6%	13.3%	1.7%	6.05	3.57	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	1	18	80	22	13	0	7%	1.3	27.5%	16.2%	11.3%	0.0%	3.06	2.84	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	1	18	80	22	13	0	7%	1.3	27.5%	16.2%	11.3%	0.0%	3.06	2.84	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	14	1	18	80	22	13	0	7%	1.3	27.5%	16.2%	11.3%	0.0%	3.06	2.82	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	0	32	144	47	16	1	0%	1.1	22.9%	14.8%	8.1%	0.0%	3.41	3.04	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	0	32	144	47	16	1	0%	1.1	22.9%	14.8%	8.1%	0.0%	3.41	3.04	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	0	32	144	47	16	1	0%	1.1	32.6%	11.1%	21.5%	0.7%	3.41	2.06	—
2025	27	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	28	0	46	190	57	18	3	0%	1.6	24.3%	10.4%	13.9%	1.8%	2.74	3.35	—
2025	27	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	28	0	46	190	57	18	3	0%	1.6	24.3%	10.4%	13.9%	1.8%	2.74	3.35	—
2025	27	AA RAW	Erie SeaWolves	28	0	46	190	57	18	3	0%	1.6	30.0%	9.5%	20.5%	1.6%	2.74	2.64	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	27	1	29	132	42	18	6	4%	1.1	25.7%	13.1%	12.6%	7.1%	5.22	6.50	—
YTD	28	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	27	1	29	132	42	18	6	4%	1.1	25.7%	13.1%	12.6%	7.1%	5.22	6.50	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	ROK RAW	BAL	4	1	3	17	4	4	0	25%	0.8	23.5%	23.5%	0.0%	0.0%	8.10	4.09	—
2026	28	A+ RAW	BAL	3	0	4	14	6	2	0	0%	1.2	42.9%	14.3%	28.6%	0.0%	4.91	1.29	—
2026	28	AA RAW	BAL	20	0	22	101	32	12	6	0%	1.1	31.7%	11.9%	19.8%	5.9%	4.84	5.19	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	BAL	54	0	56	237	57	26	7	0%	1.0	24.0%	11.0%	13.0%	2.8%	4.34	4.39	+0.1
2028	30	MLB MLE	BAL	50	0	53	223	53	25	7	0%	1.1	23.6%	11.2%	12.5%	3.0%	4.47	4.56	-0.0
2027	29	MLB CTX	BAL	17	0	18	76	18	8	2	0%	1.1	24.0%	11.0%	13.0%	2.8%	4.34	4.39	+0.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	BAL	26	0	27	114	27	13	3	0%	1.0	23.6%	11.2%	12.5%	3.0%	4.47	4.56	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		43	0	45	189	45	21	6	0%	1.0	23.8%	11.1%	12.7%	2.9%	4.42	4.12	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	201	94	27	0%	1.1	23.8%	11.1%	12.7%	2.9%	4.42	4.12	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		171	39	346	1542	347	221	35	23%	2.0	22.5%	14.3%	8.2%	2.3%	4.17	4.27	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		99	23	200	892	201	128	20	23%	2.0	22.5%	14.3%	8.2%	2.3%	4.17	4.27	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Richard Guasch (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.25	24.4%	11.0%	2.6%	—	4.47	23.8%	12.7%	109	+0.22	—	—	—
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	82
Andrew Robinson R 2016 · 3.19 FIP	28	SU	3.19	22.2%	7.9%	1.8%	.247	4.32	23.4%	14.6%	39	+1.13	3.19	160	81
Luis Santos R 2019 · 4.31 FIP	28	SU	4.31	22.9%	10.0%	3.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	472	80
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	80
Trevor Cahill R 2016 · 4.22 FIP	28	SU	4.22	23.2%	11.8%	2.9%	.274	4.60	21.1%	11.2%	310	+0.38	3.37	556	80
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	80
Dalier Hinojosa R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	29	SU	3.41	20.4%	9.8%	1.4%	.283	4.30	18.7%	6.1%	24	+0.89	3.41	104	80
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	80
Brad Brach R 2015 · 3.22 FIP	29	SU	3.22	27.5%	10.8%	1.9%	.259	3.13	25.6%	17.1%	210	-0.09	2.69	410	80
Dayan Díaz R 2017 · 3.45 FIP	28	SU	3.45	25.1%	8.7%	2.5%	.358	3.96	29.4%	19.3%	16	+0.51	3.08	205	79
Jaye Chapman R 2015 · 3.32 FIP	28	SU	3.32	21.6%	8.5%	1.8%	.276	4.08	20.3%	11.3%	85	+0.76	3.25	150	79
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	79
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	79
Blake Smith R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	28	SU	3.59	22.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	124	79
Michael Mariot R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	22.6%	9.0%	2.1%	.327	4.79	20.9%	11.8%	74	+1.28	2.40	676	79
Taylor Cole R 2018 · 3.70 FIP	28	SU	3.70	25.4%	10.4%	2.6%	.291	3.49	22.0%	13.9%	72	-0.21	3.49	433	78
Ryan Tepera R 2016 · 3.11 FIP	28	SU	3.11	22.6%	8.9%	1.4%	.266	3.81	24.3%	15.9%	164	+0.70	2.35	445	78
Daniel Robert R 2023 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	21.9%	10.7%	1.7%	.310	3.09	24.6%	16.4%	87	-0.42	2.32	186	78
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	212	78
Blake Treinen R 2016 · 3.32 FIP	28	SU	3.32	24.0%	9.5%	1.9%	.271	3.04	26.0%	17.7%	215	-0.28	1.53	547	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	56	24.0%	11.1%	1.09	4.35
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68