Richard Guasch

P Chesapeake Baysox

Age 29 RHP 6'4" / 205 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX3 levels	29	0	32	3.41	2.06	32.6%	11.1%	—	K 22.9% · BB 14.8% · FIP 3.04
2025	27	AADET	28	0	46	2.74	2.64	30.0%	9.5%	—	K 24.3% · BB 10.4% · FIP 3.35
2026	28	MIX3 levels	28	1	30	5.16	4.72	31.6%	13.5%	—	K 25.4% · BB 12.9% · FIP 6.47
2027PROJ	29	MLBBAL	1	0	1	4.58	4.58	25.1%	11.4%	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	30	MLBBAL	14	0	15	4.66	4.73	24.6%	11.4%	-0.0
2029PROJ51% MLB	31	MLBBAL	19	0	20	4.79	4.90	24.1%	11.6%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Control45Command55

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsColeman Huntley III (age 29) · Diego Moreno (age 29) · Jim Miller (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.58

FIP4.58

K%25.1%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%13.8%

Proj IP58

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4545

CMD5555

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	20	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	7	5	23	92	27	4	1	71%	3.3	20.0%	5.4%	14.5%	1.5%	1.16	2.94	—
2018	20	ROK RAW	DSL Athletics	7	5	23	92	27	4	1	71%	3.3	29.3%	4.3%	25.0%	1.1%	1.16	1.86	—
2019	21	A MLE	Beloit Snappers	18	10	60	264	77	37	1	56%	3.3	21.6%	16.5%	5.0%	0.5%	4.53	3.64	—
2019	21	A RAW	Beloit Snappers	18	10	60	264	77	37	1	56%	3.3	29.2%	14.0%	15.2%	0.4%	4.53	2.60	—
2021	23	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	19	14	74	346	92	46	10	74%	3.9	20.5%	15.3%	5.2%	4.0%	4.26	5.50	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	19	14	74	346	92	46	10	74%	3.9	26.6%	13.3%	13.3%	2.9%	4.26	4.24	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	8	64	294	82	43	5	28%	2.2	22.3%	16.2%	6.1%	2.1%	6.05	4.41	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	8	64	294	82	43	5	28%	2.2	27.9%	14.6%	13.3%	1.7%	6.05	3.57	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	1	18	80	22	13	0	7%	1.3	27.5%	16.2%	11.3%	0.0%	3.06	2.84	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	14	1	18	80	22	13	0	7%	1.3	27.5%	16.2%	11.3%	0.0%	3.06	2.82	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	0	32	144	47	16	1	0%	1.1	22.9%	14.8%	8.1%	0.0%	3.41	3.04	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	0	32	144	47	16	1	0%	1.1	22.9%	14.8%	8.1%	0.0%	3.41	3.04	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	0	32	144	47	16	1	0%	1.1	32.6%	11.1%	21.5%	0.7%	3.41	2.06	—
2025	27	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	28	0	46	190	57	18	3	0%	1.6	24.3%	10.4%	13.9%	1.8%	2.74	3.35	—
2025	27	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	28	0	46	190	57	18	3	0%	1.6	24.3%	10.4%	13.9%	1.8%	2.74	3.35	—
2025	27	AA RAW	Erie SeaWolves	28	0	46	190	57	18	3	0%	1.6	30.0%	9.5%	20.5%	1.6%	2.74	2.64	—
2026	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	1	30	133	42	18	6	4%	1.1	25.4%	12.9%	12.5%	7.1%	5.16	6.47	—
2026	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	1	30	133	42	18	6	4%	1.1	25.4%	12.9%	12.5%	7.1%	5.16	6.47	—
2026	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	1	30	133	42	18	6	4%	1.1	31.6%	13.5%	18.0%	4.5%	5.16	4.72	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	BAL	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	25.1%	11.4%	13.8%	3.3%	4.58	4.58	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	BAL	45	0	47	199	49	23	7	0%	1.0	24.6%	11.4%	13.2%	3.4%	4.66	4.73	-0.1
2029	31	MLB MLE	BAL	38	0	40	168	40	19	6	0%	1.0	24.1%	11.6%	12.5%	3.6%	4.79	4.90	-0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	BAL	14	0	15	63	16	7	2	0%	1.1	24.6%	11.4%	13.2%	3.4%	4.66	4.73	-0.0
2029	31	MLB CTX	BAL	19	0	20	84	20	10	3	0%	1.1	24.1%	11.6%	12.5%	3.6%	4.79	4.90	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		33	0	35	148	36	17	5	0%	1.1	24.3%	11.5%	12.8%	3.5%	4.74	4.45	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	205	97	28	0%	1.1	24.3%	11.5%	12.8%	3.5%	4.74	4.45	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		172	39	346	1543	347	220	35	23%	2.0	22.5%	14.3%	8.2%	2.3%	4.16	4.27	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		99	23	200	892	200	127	20	23%	2.0	22.5%	14.3%	8.2%	2.3%	4.16	4.27	-0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAChesapeake Baysox · 23 IPFIP 5.17 → 6.47 (+1.30)K% 31.4% → 25.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.37%	—	×0.810	25.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.76%	—	×1.100	12.94%
HR / BF /BF	5.88%	÷1.000	×1.200	7.06%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.17 → 6.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAErie SeaWolves · 46 IPFIP 2.63 → 3.35 (+0.72)K% 30.0% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.00%	—	×0.810	24.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.47%	—	×1.100	10.42%
HR / BF /BF	1.58%	÷1.056	×1.200	1.79%

Result: FIP 2.63 → 3.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 16 IPFIP 2.15 → 3.18 (+1.03)K% 36.6% → 28.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.62%	—	×0.770	28.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.90%	—	×1.150	19.44%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.016	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 2.15 → 3.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAHarrisburg Senators · 10 IPFIP 2.45 → 2.86 (+0.41)K% 19.2% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.23%	—	×0.810	15.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×1.100	8.46%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.990	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.45 → 2.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Nationals · 5 IPFIP 1.29 → 3.85 (+2.56)K% 52.4% → 35.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	52.38%	—	×0.680	35.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.250	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	4.76%	÷0.975	×1.400	6.84%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).

Result: FIP 1.29 → 3.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 10 IPFIP 3.70 → 4.45 (+0.75)K% 20.4% → 15.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.41%	—	×0.770	15.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.37%	—	×1.150	21.12%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.913	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.70 → 4.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAHarrisburg Senators · 6 IPFIP 2.14 → 2.82 (+0.68)K% 31.8% → 25.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.82%	—	×0.810	25.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.64%	—	×1.100	15.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.115	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.14 → 2.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAHarrisburg Senators · 47 IPFIP 4.17 → 5.06 (+0.89)K% 25.8% → 20.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.76%	—	×0.810	20.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.16%	—	×1.100	17.77%
HR / BF /BF	2.18%	÷0.979	×1.200	2.68%

Result: FIP 4.17 → 5.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Richard Guasch (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.58	25.1%	11.4%	3.3%	—	4.81	24.4%	12.9%	87	+0.23	—	—	—
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	82
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	79
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	78
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	77
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	77
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	76
Alex Powers R 2021 · 4.24 FIP	29	SU	4.24	25.0%	10.3%	3.5%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.82	264	76
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	76
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	160	76
Cody Hall R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	26.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.299	3.92	25.9%	8.4%	19	-0.11	3.51	134	75
Dalier Hinojosa R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	29	SU	3.41	20.4%	9.8%	1.4%	.283	4.30	18.7%	6.1%	24	+0.89	3.41	104	75
Blake Smith R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	28	SU	3.59	22.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	124	75
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	74
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	73
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	73
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	73
Scott Atchison R 2004 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	27.1%	9.0%	3.0%	.309	4.55	19.1%	11.5%	31	+0.94	2.52	340	73
Ryan Garton R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	29	SU	4.34	24.5%	11.4%	3.4%	.298	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	307	72
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2012 · 3.90 FIP	28	SU	3.90	25.2%	8.7%	3.3%	.299	3.34	26.5%	16.9%	75	-0.56	3.34	335	72
Chris Smith R 2018 · 3.72 FIP	29	SU	3.72	24.1%	9.3%	2.7%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	2.17	199	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	48	24.7%	11.5%	1.32	4.66
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Colin Poche ('25)	1.1	54	26.7%	10.2%	1.32	4.01
J.J. Hoover ('18)	1.4	57	23.8%	11.4%	1.42	4.17
José Ruiz ('25)	1.4	57	22.3%	10.4%	1.44	4.62
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*