Eric Cerantola

P Sacramento River Cats

Age 27 RHP 6'5" / 225 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	37	7	73	2.97	3.82	31.4%	15.5%	—	K 25.7% · BB 16.6% · FIP 4.65
2025	25	AAAKC	38	1	49	4.04	3.06	29.6%	11.3%	—	K 25.4% · BB 10.1% · FIP 3.37
2026	26	MIX2 levels	51	1	56	3.83	4.40	30.8%	14.6%	0.1	K 27.0% · BB 10.6% · FIP 4.09
2027PROJ	27	MLBKC	45	0	47	4.39	4.39	27.5%	12.4%	0.1
2028PROJ78% MLB	28	MLBKC	44	0	46	4.43	4.46	27.0%	12.3%	0.0
2029PROJ83% MLB	29	MLBKC	41	0	43	4.52	4.58	26.5%	12.3%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 1.7, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 91%

CompsJason Bulger (age 29) · Anthony Varvaro (age 27) · Peyton Gray (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 100

ERA4.39

FIP4.39

K%27.5%

BB%12.4%

K-BB%15.1%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	ROK MLE	ACL Royals Blue	4	2	5	23	9	7	0	50%	1.2	39.1%	30.4%	8.7%	0.0%	1.93	3.65	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	ACL Royals Blue	4	2	5	23	9	7	0	50%	1.2	39.1%	30.4%	8.7%	0.0%	1.93	3.74	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	10	30	135	36	14	5	100%	3.0	23.8%	7.9%	16.0%	5.1%	5.34	4.86	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	10	30	135	36	14	5	100%	3.0	26.7%	10.4%	16.3%	3.7%	5.34	4.25	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	4	76	334	99	46	3	12%	2.4	23.1%	15.8%	7.3%	1.1%	3.66	3.75	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	4	76	334	99	46	3	12%	2.4	29.6%	13.8%	15.9%	0.9%	3.66	2.82	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	7	73	322	101	50	8	19%	2.0	25.7%	16.6%	9.1%	2.9%	2.97	4.65	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	7	73	322	101	50	8	19%	2.0	25.7%	16.6%	9.1%	2.9%	2.97	4.65	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	7	73	322	101	50	8	19%	2.0	31.4%	15.5%	15.8%	2.5%	2.97	3.82	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	38	1	49	213	63	24	4	3%	1.3	25.4%	10.1%	15.3%	2.1%	4.04	3.37	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	38	1	49	213	63	24	4	3%	1.3	25.4%	10.1%	15.3%	2.1%	4.04	3.37	—
2025	25	AAA RAW	Omaha Storm Chasers	38	1	49	213	63	24	4	3%	1.3	29.6%	11.3%	18.3%	1.9%	4.04	3.06	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	1	56	247	76	36	9	2%	1.1	27.0%	10.6%	16.3%	3.5%	3.83	4.09	+0.3
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	1	56	247	76	36	9	2%	1.1	27.0%	10.6%	16.3%	3.5%	3.83	4.09	+0.3
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	1	56	247	76	36	9	2%	1.1	30.8%	14.6%	16.2%	3.6%	3.83	4.40	+0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			4	0	5	27	7	10	2	0%	1.3	25.9%	37.0%	-11.1%	7.4%	10.12	10.97	-0.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	KC	45	0	47	198	55	25	6	0%	1.0	27.5%	12.4%	15.1%	3.0%	4.39	4.39	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	KC	56	0	58	247	67	30	8	0%	1.0	27.0%	12.3%	14.7%	3.1%	4.43	4.46	+0.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	KC	49	0	51	217	57	27	7	0%	1.0	26.5%	12.3%	14.2%	3.3%	4.52	4.58	-0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	KC	44	0	46	194	52	24	6	0%	1.0	27.0%	12.3%	14.7%	3.1%	4.43	4.46	+0.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	KC	41	0	43	182	48	22	6	0%	1.0	26.5%	12.3%	14.2%	3.3%	4.52	4.58	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		88	0	94	400	107	56	14	0%	1.1	26.7%	13.9%	12.7%	3.5%	4.80	4.52	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		188	0	200	854	228	120	30	0%	1.1	26.7%	13.9%	12.7%	3.5%	4.80	4.52	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		172	25	289	1274	322	172	33	15%	1.7	25.3%	13.5%	11.8%	2.6%	3.73	4.09	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		119	17	200	881	222	119	23	15%	1.7	25.3%	13.5%	11.8%	2.6%	3.73	4.09	-0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASacramento River Cats · 51 IPFIP 3.69 → 4.09 (+0.40)K% 31.4% → 27.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.36%	—	×0.860	26.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.82%	—	×0.900	10.64%
HR / BF /BF	3.18%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.50%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.69 → 4.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 49 IPFIP 3.06 → 3.37 (+0.31)K% 29.6% → 25.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.58%	—	×0.860	25.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.27%	—	×0.900	10.14%
HR / BF /BF	1.88%	÷1.003	×1.100	2.06%

Result: FIP 3.06 → 3.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 58 IPFIP 3.57 → 4.61 (+1.03)K% 31.4% → 25.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.40%	—	×0.810	25.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.28%	—	×1.100	17.91%
HR / BF /BF	1.94%	÷0.920	×1.200	2.53%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 84).

Result: FIP 3.57 → 4.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 14 IPFIP 4.62 → 4.80 (+0.19)K% 31.2% → 26.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.25%	—	×0.860	26.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.50%	—	×0.900	11.25%
HR / BF /BF	4.69%	÷1.111	×1.100	4.64%

Result: FIP 4.62 → 4.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 62 IPFIP 3.13 → 4.09 (+0.96)K% 28.6% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.57%	—	×0.770	22.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.64%	—	×1.150	16.84%
HR / BF /BF	1.07%	÷1.033	×1.250	1.30%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 3.13 → 4.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 14 IPFIP 1.30 → 1.98 (+0.68)K% 35.2% → 28.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.19%	—	×0.810	28.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.26%	—	×1.100	10.19%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.872	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.30 → 1.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AColumbia Fireflies · 21 IPFIP 3.66 → 4.86 (+1.20)K% 32.2% → 23.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.22%	—	×0.740	23.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.67%	—	×1.180	7.87%
HR / BF /BF	4.44%	÷1.140	×1.300	5.07%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 128).

Result: FIP 3.66 → 4.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 9 IPFIP 5.26 → 6.13 (+0.88)K% 15.6% → 12.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.56%	—	×0.770	11.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.78%	—	×1.150	20.44%
HR / BF /BF	2.22%	÷1.047	×1.250	2.65%

Result: FIP 5.26 → 6.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Eric Cerantola (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.52	26.7%	14.5%	110	+0.13	—	—	—
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	84
Anthony Varvaro R 2012 · 3.66 FIP	27	SU	3.66	27.6%	10.5%	2.8%	.311	3.30	17.7%	11.0%	139	-0.36	3.02	208	83
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	160	82
Chaz Roe R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	26	SU	4.02	25.3%	10.5%	3.1%	.259	2.81	24.6%	16.2%	133	-1.21	1.72	279	81
Kiko Calero R 2003 · 3.54 FIP	28	SU	3.54	31.5%	11.1%	3.1%	.273	3.11	26.1%	18.9%	159	-0.43	2.27	298	81
Zach Franklin R 2024 · 3.24 FIP	25	SU	3.24	26.4%	10.9%	1.8%	.301	4.15	27.5%	18.3%	117	+0.91	3.24	158	80
Marcos Mateo R 2011 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	25.5%	10.2%	2.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	104	80
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	79
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	27	SU	3.93	26.4%	14.3%	2.3%	.274	4.80	21.7%	10.2%	69	+0.87	3.84	181	79
Grant Balfour R 2004 · 3.79 FIP	26	SU	3.79	24.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.292	4.01	24.8%	8.3%	25	+0.22	2.04	533	78
Scott Dohmann R 2005 · 4.93 FIP	27	SU	4.93	24.5%	12.6%	4.2%	.321	4.69	18.9%	7.5%	96	-0.24	4.28	173	77
Maikel Cleto R 2016 · 3.44 FIP	27	SU	3.44	27.9%	9.9%	2.6%	.301	3.61	23.6%	14.3%	70	+0.17	2.59	185	77
Jose De La Torre R 2013 · 5.22 FIP	27	SU	5.22	28.3%	18.9%	3.9%	.308	3.87	17.6%	6.6%	110	-1.35	2.64	141	77
Scott Atchison R 2004 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	27.1%	9.0%	3.0%	.309	4.55	19.1%	11.5%	31	+0.94	2.52	340	77
Cristofer Ogando R 2021 · 4.83 FIP	27	SU	4.83	26.8%	10.9%	4.8%	.281	4.90	20.6%	9.0%	53	+0.07	3.23	179	76
Matt Ramsey R 2017 · 3.25 FIP	27	SU	3.25	24.2%	9.6%	1.8%	.330	3.21	23.6%	14.6%	81	-0.04	2.42	125	76
Jon Edwards R 2015 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	31.7%	13.1%	2.4%	.264	2.40	30.3%	22.6%	30	-1.00	2.40	132	76
Colin McKee R 2021 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	29.3%	13.5%	4.1%	.302	4.40	16.6%	-4.7%	14	-0.20	4.18	148	75
Jose Veras R 2008 · 3.67 FIP	27	SU	3.67	24.9%	9.1%	2.8%	.281	4.10	23.8%	11.7%	169	+0.43	3.37	422	75
Beck Wheeler R 2016 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.9%	14.5%	2.9%	.360	5.40	15.3%	3.1%	58	+0.98	3.46	173	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	62	27.0%	13.2%	1.26	4.60
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Amir Garrett ('24)	1.7	55	26.7%	13.3%	1.52	4.95
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*