Eric Cerantola — OGILVIE

Eric Cerantola P Sacramento River Cats

Age 26 RHP 6'5" / 225 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION53 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110102vR 94

ERA4.04

FIP4.04

K%27.2%

BB%14.0%

K-BB%13.1%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF7070

CMD3035

K†6565

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	ROK MLE	ACL Royals Blue	4	2	5	23	9	7	0	50%	1.2	39.1%	30.4%	8.7%	0.0%	1.93	3.65	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	ACL Royals Blue	4	2	5	23	9	7	0	50%	1.2	39.1%	30.4%	8.7%	0.0%	1.93	3.74	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	10	30	135	36	14	5	100%	3.0	23.8%	7.9%	16.0%	5.1%	5.34	4.86	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	10	30	135	36	14	5	100%	3.0	26.7%	10.4%	16.3%	3.7%	5.34	4.25	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	4	76	334	99	46	3	12%	2.4	23.1%	15.8%	7.3%	1.1%	3.66	3.75	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	4	76	334	99	46	3	12%	2.4	23.1%	15.8%	7.3%	1.1%	3.66	3.75	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	4	76	334	99	46	3	12%	2.4	29.6%	13.8%	15.9%	0.9%	3.66	2.82	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	7	73	322	101	50	8	19%	2.0	25.5%	16.6%	8.9%	2.9%	2.97	4.66	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	7	73	322	101	50	8	19%	2.0	25.5%	16.6%	8.9%	2.9%	2.97	4.66	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	7	73	322	101	50	8	19%	2.0	31.4%	15.5%	15.8%	2.5%	2.97	3.82	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	38	1	49	213	63	24	4	3%	1.3	24.5%	10.1%	14.4%	2.1%	4.04	3.44	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	38	1	49	213	63	24	4	3%	1.3	24.5%	10.1%	14.4%	2.1%	4.04	3.44	—
2025	25	AAA RAW	Omaha Storm Chasers	38	1	49	213	63	24	4	3%	1.3	29.6%	11.3%	18.3%	1.9%	4.04	3.06	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			4	0	5	27	7	10	2	0%	1.3	25.9%	37.0%	-11.1%	7.4%	10.12	10.97	-0.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	48	1	53	236	73	35	9	2%	1.1	26.2%	10.8%	15.4%	3.7%	4.05	4.27	—
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	48	1	53	236	73	35	9	2%	1.1	26.2%	10.8%	15.4%	3.7%	4.05	4.27	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AAA RAW	KC	44	1	48	209	66	25	7	2%	1.1	31.6%	12.0%	19.6%	3.3%	3.38	3.79	—
2026	26	MLB RAW	KC	4	0	5	27	7	10	2	0%	1.3	25.9%	37.0%	-11.1%	7.4%	10.12	9.67	—
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	KC	4	0	5	27	7	10	2	0%	1.3	25.9%	37.0%	-11.1%	7.4%	10.12	9.67	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	KC	5	0	5	21	6	3	1	0%	1.0	27.2%	14.0%	13.1%	2.7%	4.04	4.04	+0.0
ROS	26	MLB CTX	KC	5	0	5	21	6	3	1	0%	1.0	27.2%	14.0%	13.1%	2.7%	4.04	4.04	+0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	KC	—	—	58	257	79	38	10	—	—	30.6%	14.8%	15.9%	3.7%	4.05	4.25	+0.2
FULL	26	MLB A+C	KC	—	—	10	44	79	38	10	—	—	180.3%	86.9%	93.4%	21.9%	22.84	10.90	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	KC	61	0	64	272	73	41	8	0%	1.1	26.8%	15.3%	11.5%	3.0%	4.76	4.78	-0.2
2028	28	MLB MLE	KC	60	0	62	264	70	39	8	0%	1.0	26.4%	15.0%	11.4%	3.1%	4.78	4.83	-0.2
2027	27	MLB CTX	KC	58	0	61	258	69	39	8	0%	1.1	26.8%	15.3%	11.5%	3.0%	4.76	4.78	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	KC	56	0	59	249	66	37	8	0%	1.1	26.4%	15.0%	11.4%	3.1%	4.78	4.83	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		124	0	131	557	148	90	18	0%	1.1	26.6%	16.1%	10.4%	3.2%	4.96	4.66	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		189	0	200	851	226	138	28	0%	1.1	26.6%	16.1%	10.4%	3.2%	4.96	4.66	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		169	25	286	1263	315	171	33	15%	1.7	24.9%	13.5%	11.4%	2.6%	3.77	4.14	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		118	17	200	882	220	119	23	15%	1.7	24.9%	13.5%	11.4%	2.6%	3.77	4.14	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Eric Cerantola (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.44	27.3%	14.2%	2.7%	—	4.80	26.6%	11.5%	127	+0.36	—	—	—
Jeff Ames R 2017 · 3.94 FIP	26	SU	3.94	25.1%	13.4%	2.3%	.310	4.65	25.4%	10.8%	79	+0.71	3.85	272	88
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	159	87
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	86
Maikel Cleto R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	26	SU	3.79	25.8%	12.1%	2.4%	.214	3.13	25.0%	15.3%	55	-0.66	2.59	156	84
Ronald Peña R 2018 · 4.19 FIP	26	SU	4.19	23.4%	11.6%	2.9%	.273	4.52	18.7%	7.1%	88	+0.33	3.72	187	84
Jackson Kelley R 2023 · 3.80 FIP	23	SU	3.80	26.5%	13.1%	2.3%	.313	3.65	21.6%	10.7%	165	-0.15	3.21	218	84
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	83
Dustin Antolin R 2016 · 3.43 FIP	26	SU	3.43	23.9%	13.1%	1.3%	.286	4.35	16.2%	1.8%	50	+0.92	2.95	159	83
Brooks Kriske R 2019 · 3.47 FIP	25	SU	3.47	26.1%	12.2%	1.9%	.245	4.95	28.6%	16.5%	41	+1.48	3.15	246	83
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	83
Zac Leigh R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	28.1%	11.7%	3.0%	.282	4.58	19.9%	3.7%	131	+0.74	3.70	201	83
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	83
Michael Flynn R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	26.5%	11.2%	3.7%	.299	4.42	20.8%	10.2%	92	+0.11	3.89	168	82
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	82
Eric Orze R 2023 · 4.06 FIP	25	SU	4.06	24.7%	13.6%	2.4%	.319	3.64	23.5%	14.1%	193	-0.42	3.42	351	81
Matt Blackham R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	26	SU	3.90	25.4%	12.0%	2.6%	.206	6.85	26.9%	8.7%	25	+2.95	2.08	187	81
Luis Ramirez R 2016 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	24.0%	12.6%	1.9%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.71	104	81
Mason Vinyard R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	24	SU	3.73	22.7%	13.6%	1.5%	.270	4.67	19.3%	5.9%	147	+0.94	3.60	207	81
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	80
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	299	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	62	26.8%	14.8%	1.12	4.66
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64