Orlando Ortiz-Mayr
P
Pensacola Blue Wahoos
Age 28
RHP
6'3" / 200 lbs
AA
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION62 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 146137vR 128
ERA5.68
FIP5.68
K%15.1%
BB%15.4%
K-BB%-0.3%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 127 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 24 | A | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | 20 | 3 | 61 | 285 | 81 | 32 | 8 | 15% | 3.0 | 21.0% | 13.2% | 7.8% | 2.4% | 6.79 | 4.34 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | 20 | 3 | 61 | 285 | 81 | 32 | 8 | 15% | 3.0 | 28.4% | 11.2% | 17.2% | 2.8% | 6.79 | 3.72 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 13 | 111 | 478 | 93 | 38 | 9 | 48% | 4.1 | 15.4% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 1.9% | 4.78 | 4.00 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 13 | 111 | 478 | 93 | 38 | 9 | 48% | 4.1 | 19.5% | 7.9% | 11.5% | 1.9% | 4.78 | 3.51 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 27 | 25 | 136 | 593 | 108 | 60 | 18 | 93% | 5.0 | 14.8% | 11.1% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.71 | 5.04 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 27 | 25 | 136 | 593 | 108 | 60 | 18 | 93% | 5.0 | 18.2% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 3.0% | 4.71 | 4.56 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 24 | 20 | 97 | 425 | 90 | 61 | 9 | 83% | 4.0 | 17.2% | 15.8% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 3.82 | 4.81 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 24 | 20 | 97 | 425 | 90 | 61 | 9 | 83% | 4.0 | 21.2% | 14.4% | 6.8% | 2.1% | 3.82 | 4.34 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 16 | 14 | 62 | 290 | 64 | 31 | 3 | 88% | 3.9 | 17.9% | 11.8% | 6.1% | 1.2% | 6.93 | 3.76 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | MIA | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 41 | 42 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 15.1% | 15.4% | -0.3% | 2.8% | 5.68 | 5.68 | -0.8 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | MIA | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 15.1% | 15.4% | -0.3% | 2.8% | 5.68 | 5.68 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 127 | 564 | 105 | 73 | 11 | — | — | 18.7% | 13.0% | 5.7% | 1.9% | 6.29 | 4.74 | +1.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 15.1% | 15.4% | -0.3% | 2.8% | 5.68 | 5.30 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 12 | 12 | 73 | 307 | 48 | 46 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 15.7% | 15.0% | 0.7% | 2.9% | 5.62 | 5.67 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 11 | 11 | 68 | 288 | 46 | 43 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 15.9% | 14.9% | 1.0% | 3.1% | 5.66 | 5.75 | -0.8 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 11 | 11 | 64 | 269 | 43 | 40 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 15.9% | 14.9% | 0.9% | 3.4% | 5.76 | 5.88 | -0.9 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 4 | 4 | 23 | 97 | 15 | 15 | 3 | 100% | 5.8 | 15.7% | 15.0% | 0.7% | 2.9% | 5.62 | 5.67 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 6 | 6 | 35 | 148 | 23 | 22 | 5 | 100% | 5.8 | 15.9% | 14.9% | 1.0% | 3.1% | 5.66 | 5.75 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 7 | 7 | 41 | 173 | 27 | 26 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 15.9% | 14.9% | 0.9% | 3.4% | 5.76 | 5.88 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 17 | 17 | 101 | 425 | 67 | 63 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 15.8% | 14.9% | 0.9% | 3.2% | 5.69 | 5.40 | -0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 133 | 125 | 28 | 100% | 6.0 | 15.8% | 14.9% | 0.9% | 3.2% | 5.69 | 5.40 | -0.0 | ||
| Career | — | 114 | 75 | 467 | 2071 | 346 | 248 | 48 | 66% | 4.1 | 16.7% | 12.0% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 5.11 | 4.48 | +5.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 32 | 200 | 888 | 148 | 106 | 21 | 66% | 4.1 | 16.7% | 12.0% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 5.11 | 4.48 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Orlando Ortiz-Mayr (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.68 | 15.1% | 15.4% | 2.8% | — | 5.76 | 15.8% | 0.9% | 205 | +0.08 | — | — | — |
| David Fletcher R 2028 · 5.92 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.92 | 7.6% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.92 | 100 | 73 |
| Luis Niebla R 2024 · 4.94 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.94 | 11.6% | 13.2% | 2.1% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 156 | 72 |
| Vanny Valenzuela R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.66 | 16.3% | 11.3% | 2.8% | .380 | 7.26 | 10.9% | 1.2% | 25 | +2.60 | 3.26 | 118 | 71 |
| Jordan Cooper R 2024 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.05 | 9.2% | 10.2% | 2.6% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.05 | 106 | 71 |
| Daniel Guerrero R 2029 · 4.64 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.64 | 12.4% | 11.6% | 2.0% | .328 | 4.73 | 11.7% | 2.0% | 175 | +0.09 | 4.49 | 269 | 71 |
| David Griffin R 2025 · 6.04 FIP | 27 | SP- | 6.04 | 14.5% | 10.3% | 5.2% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.52 | 239 | 70 |
| Jacob Turner R 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.69 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 70 |
| Tyler Chatwood R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.06 | 17.5% | 19.3% | 1.8% | .279 | 3.73 | 24.6% | 12.5% | 127 | -1.33 | 3.22 | 537 | 69 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.26 | 11.3% | 9.5% | 3.5% | .368 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 412 | 68 |
| Kenny Serwa R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.75 | 14.9% | 12.6% | 2.4% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 182 | 68 |
| Keyvius Sampson R 2024 · 5.21 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.21 | 19.6% | 16.4% | 3.1% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 316 | 68 |
| Mat Latos R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.94 | 13.4% | 9.6% | 3.2% | .279 | 5.79 | 16.8% | 5.6% | 41 | +0.85 | 3.68 | 244 | 68 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2029 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.68 | 15.8% | 11.8% | 2.6% | .312 | 4.79 | 15.0% | 4.8% | 26 | +0.11 | 4.68 | 150 | 67 |
| Miguel Ruiz R 2027 · 6.00 FIP | 29 | SP- | 6.00 | 8.8% | 8.0% | 4.8% | .346 | 5.44 | 10.6% | -0.4% | 53 | -0.56 | 5.44 | 117 | 67 |
| Alex Blackford R 2024 · 5.71 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.71 | 14.9% | 12.5% | 4.2% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 229 | 66 |
| Brian Edgington R 2024 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.05 | 19.3% | 12.3% | 3.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 171 | 66 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.88 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.28 | 3.25 | 221 | 66 |
| Mike Connolly R 2024 · 5.26 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.26 | 13.2% | 9.4% | 3.8% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.24 | 328 | 65 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 5.66 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.66 | 17.5% | 12.2% | 4.5% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 299 | 65 |
| Matt Harvey R 2026 · 5.77 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.77 | 15.5% | 10.2% | 4.9% | .298 | 4.76 | 19.0% | 12.0% | 249 | -1.01 | 2.90 | 806 | 65 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 70 | 15.6% | 15.1% | 1.18 | 5.68 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |