Orlando Ortiz-Mayr

P Pensacola Blue Wahoos

Age 29 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs AA peak 0.4 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	27	AAMIA	24	20	97	3.82	4.34	21.2%	14.4%	—	K 17.2% · BB 15.8% · FIP 4.92
2026	28	AAMIA	22	20	88	6.06	3.05	22.1%	10.1%	—	K 17.9% · BB 11.1% · FIP 3.65
2027PROJ	29	MLBMIA	1	1	1	5.30	5.30	16.2%	14.6%	0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	30	MLBMIA	3	3	16	5.31	5.38	16.6%	14.3%	0.0
2029PROJ51% MLB	31	MLBMIA	4	4	21	5.39	5.50	16.7%	14.3%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control30Command35

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsDerek Eitel (age 29) · Luke Irvine (age 27) · Luis Mateo (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.30

FIP5.30

K%16.2%

BB%14.6%

K-BB%1.7%

Proj IP69

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3030

CMD3535

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	24	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	20	3	61	285	81	32	8	15%	3.0	21.0%	13.2%	7.8%	2.9%	6.79	4.61	—
2022	24	A RAW	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	20	3	61	285	81	32	8	15%	3.0	28.4%	11.2%	17.2%	2.8%	6.79	3.72	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	13	111	478	93	38	9	48%	4.1	15.4%	8.9%	6.4%	2.1%	4.78	4.08	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	13	111	478	93	38	9	48%	4.1	19.5%	7.9%	11.5%	1.9%	4.78	3.51	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	27	25	136	593	108	60	18	93%	5.0	14.8%	11.1%	3.6%	3.4%	4.71	5.14	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	27	25	136	593	108	60	18	93%	5.0	14.8%	11.1%	3.6%	3.4%	4.71	5.14	—
2024	26	AA RAW	Tulsa Drillers	27	25	136	593	108	60	18	93%	5.0	18.2%	10.1%	8.1%	3.0%	4.71	4.56	—
2025	27	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	24	20	97	425	90	61	9	83%	4.0	17.2%	15.8%	1.4%	2.3%	3.82	4.92	—
2025	27	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	24	20	97	425	90	61	9	83%	4.0	17.2%	15.8%	1.4%	2.3%	3.82	4.92	—
2025	27	AA RAW	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	24	20	97	425	90	61	9	83%	4.0	21.2%	14.4%	6.8%	2.1%	3.82	4.34	—
2026	28	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	22	20	88	398	88	40	4	91%	4.0	17.9%	11.1%	6.9%	1.2%	6.06	3.65	—
2026	28	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	22	20	88	398	88	40	4	91%	4.0	17.9%	11.1%	6.9%	1.2%	6.06	3.65	—
2026	28	AA RAW	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	22	20	88	398	88	40	4	91%	4.0	22.1%	10.1%	12.1%	1.0%	6.06	3.05	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	MIA	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	100%	1.0	16.2%	14.6%	1.7%	2.4%	5.30	5.30	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	MIA	8	8	50	213	35	30	6	100%	6.3	16.6%	14.3%	2.3%	2.7%	5.31	5.38	+0.0
2029	31	MLB MLE	MIA	7	7	41	175	29	25	5	100%	5.9	16.7%	14.3%	2.4%	3.0%	5.39	5.50	-0.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	MIA	3	3	16	68	11	10	2	100%	5.3	16.6%	14.3%	2.3%	2.7%	5.31	5.38	+0.0
2029	31	MLB CTX	MIA	4	4	21	89	15	13	3	100%	5.2	16.7%	14.3%	2.4%	3.0%	5.39	5.50	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	6	37	156	26	22	4	100%	6.2	16.7%	14.3%	2.3%	2.8%	5.36	5.07	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	140	119	22	100%	6.0	16.7%	14.3%	2.3%	2.8%	5.36	5.07	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		120	81	492	2179	365	258	53	68%	4.1	16.8%	11.8%	4.9%	2.4%	5.05	4.52	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	33	200	886	148	105	22	68%	4.1	16.8%	11.8%	4.9%	2.4%	5.05	4.52	-0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 88 IPFIP 3.06 → 3.65 (+0.59)K% 22.1% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.11%	—	×0.810	17.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.05%	—	×1.100	11.06%
HR / BF /BF	1.01%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.21%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.06 → 3.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 97 IPFIP 4.29 → 4.92 (+0.62)K% 21.2% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.18%	—	×0.810	17.15%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.35%	—	×1.100	15.79%
HR / BF /BF	2.12%	÷1.103	×1.200	2.30%

Result: FIP 4.29 → 4.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AATulsa Drillers · 136 IPFIP 4.51 → 5.14 (+0.63)K% 18.2% → 14.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.21%	—	×0.810	14.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.12%	—	×1.100	11.13%
HR / BF /BF	3.04%	÷1.063	×1.200	3.43%

Result: FIP 4.51 → 5.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AATulsa Drillers · 61 IPFIP 4.32 → 4.89 (+0.57)K% 17.7% → 14.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.71%	—	×0.810	14.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.01%	—	×1.100	7.71%
HR / BF /BF	3.32%	÷1.083	×1.200	3.68%

Result: FIP 4.32 → 4.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Great Lakes Loons · 50 IPFIP 2.43 → 3.02 (+0.60)K% 21.7% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.74%	—	×0.770	16.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.18%	—	×1.150	10.56%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.951	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 2.43 → 3.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 61 IPFIP 3.66 → 4.61 (+0.95)K% 28.4% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.42%	—	×0.740	21.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.23%	—	×1.180	13.25%
HR / BF /BF	2.81%	÷1.247	×1.300	2.93%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 149).

Result: FIP 3.66 → 4.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.30	16.2%	14.6%	2.4%	—	5.43	16.6%	2.3%	92	+0.13	—	—	—
Derek Eitel R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SP-	4.72	17.2%	16.0%	1.9%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	138	76
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	75
Luis Mateo R 2019 · 5.55 FIP	29	SP-	5.55	8.6%	13.4%	2.7%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	160	74
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	72
Daniel Guerrero R 2016 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP	4.81	12.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.328	4.93	11.7%	2.0%	175	+0.12	4.61	269	72
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	71
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	71
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	70
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	70
Mark Appel R 2021 · 5.90 FIP	30	SP-	5.90	15.6%	15.6%	3.9%	.260	4.22	18.5%	8.1%	40	-1.68	4.22	363	69
Frank Batista R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	12.1%	8.2%	2.1%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	118	68
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	68
Jordan Cooper R 2015 · 5.01 FIP	26	SP	5.01	9.2%	10.2%	2.5%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	5.01	106	68
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	67
Walter Silva R 2009 · 5.72 FIP	32	SP	5.72	9.1%	12.4%	3.3%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	453	67
Noah Song R 2023 · 6.06 FIP	26	SP	6.06	12.0%	13.2%	4.2%	.239	3.80	19.8%	8.3%	116	-2.26	3.68	138	67
Alfonso Sanchez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	29	SW	4.51	12.5%	9.8%	2.2%	.346	7.58	8.6%	1.4%	39	+3.07	4.51	224	67
Robert Ellis R 2001 · 4.84 FIP	30	SP	4.84	9.9%	7.7%	2.9%	.287	8.08	9.0%	-2.2%	18	+3.24	4.84	110	66
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.83 FIP	27	SP-	5.83	14.2%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	66
Travis Driskill R 2002 · 4.95 FIP	30	SP-	4.95	13.2%	8.0%	3.6%	.291	4.26	15.3%	12.0%	48	-0.69	4.26	181	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	53	16.5%	14.4%	1.03	5.33
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*