Orlando Ortiz-Mayr
P
Pensacola Blue Wahoos
+0.0
WAR
Age 28
RHP
6'3" / 200 lbs
AA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA5.06
FIP5.06
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%18.3%
BB%12.2%
K-BB%6.0%
IP109
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
STUF4040
CTRL3030
CMD3535
K†4040
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 24 | A | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | 20 | 3 | 61 | 285 | 81 | 32 | 8 | 21.0% | 13.2% | 2.9% | 6.79 | 4.58 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 27 | 13 | 111 | 478 | 93 | 38 | 9 | 15.4% | 8.9% | 2.0% | 4.78 | 4.04 | +1.6 |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 27 | 25 | 136 | 593 | 108 | 60 | 18 | 14.8% | 11.1% | 3.4% | 4.71 | 5.13 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 24 | 20 | 97 | 425 | 90 | 61 | 9 | 17.2% | 15.8% | 2.4% | 3.82 | 4.94 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 3 | 2 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 6 | 1 | — | — | — | 8.22 | — | — |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | MIA | 20 | 20 | 109 | 459 | 78 | 66 | 13 | 17.1% | 14.4% | 2.9% | 5.44 | 5.44 | -0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 28 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 116 | 494 | 85 | 72 | 14 | 17.3% | 14.6% | 2.9% | 5.62 | 5.08 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 19 | 19 | 106 | 449 | 78 | 62 | 13 | 17.4% | 13.8% | 2.9% | 5.35 | 5.37 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 19 | 19 | 103 | 435 | 76 | 59 | 13 | 17.6% | 13.5% | 3.0% | 5.31 | 5.35 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 18 | 18 | 100 | 420 | 74 | 56 | 13 | 17.5% | 13.3% | 3.1% | 5.32 | 5.37 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 17 | 17 | 96 | 403 | 70 | 54 | 13 | 17.4% | 13.3% | 3.1% | 5.37 | 5.43 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 17 | 17 | 91 | 385 | 66 | 52 | 12 | 17.1% | 13.5% | 3.2% | 5.46 | 5.52 | -0.3 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | MIA | 16 | 16 | 87 | 366 | 61 | 50 | 12 | 16.7% | 13.7% | 3.3% | 5.56 | 5.63 | -0.4 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | MIA | 15 | 15 | 82 | 345 | 56 | 48 | 12 | 16.3% | 13.9% | 3.4% | 5.68 | 5.76 | -0.6 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | MIA | 14 | 14 | 76 | 322 | 58 | 43 | 11 | 17.9% | 13.4% | 3.6% | 5.64 | 5.62 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 101 | 63 | 412 | 1816 | 301 | 220 | 49 | 16.6% | 12.1% | 2.7% | 4.89 | 4.71 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 31 | 200 | 882 | 146 | 107 | 24 | 16.6% | 12.1% | 2.7% | 4.89 | 4.71 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Orlando Ortiz-Mayr (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.44 | 17.1% | 14.4% | 2.9% | — | 5.36 | 17.5% | 4.0% | 309 | -0.08 | — | — | — |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2028 · 4.40 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.40 | 15.0% | 12.6% | 1.8% | .289 | 4.45 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 115 | +0.05 | 4.33 | 221 | 86 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2029 · 4.52 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.52 | 15.8% | 11.8% | 2.3% | .312 | 4.86 | 15.0% | 4.8% | 26 | +0.34 | 4.52 | 150 | 86 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2024 · 4.98 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.98 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.0% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 157 | 81 |
| Luke Irvine R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.31 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 104 | 81 |
| Daniel Guerrero R 2029 · 4.86 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.86 | 12.4% | 11.6% | 2.4% | .328 | 4.86 | 11.7% | 2.0% | 175 | +0.00 | 4.54 | 269 | 81 |
| Casey Coleman R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.31 | 12.6% | 11.4% | 1.5% | .349 | 4.16 | 18.3% | 8.9% | 146 | -0.15 | 2.98 | 306 | 79 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.72 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.12 | 3.22 | 221 | 79 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.94 | 20.6% | 12.8% | 3.6% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 328 | 78 |
| Jose Pina R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.86 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 3.7% | .231 | 3.67 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.19 | 3.65 | 424 | 77 |
| Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.37 | 14.6% | 9.8% | 2.3% | .311 | 3.92 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 44 | -0.45 | 3.92 | 272 | 77 |
| Jacob Turner R 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.43 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 76 |
| Brad Allen R 2025 · 5.86 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.86 | 14.7% | 13.2% | 4.2% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 149 | 76 |
| Hector Noesí R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 75 |
| Jordan Cooper R 2024 · 4.96 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.96 | 9.2% | 10.2% | 2.5% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.96 | 106 | 75 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 5.87 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.87 | 17.5% | 12.2% | 4.9% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 299 | 74 |
| Matt Harvey R 2026 · 5.94 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.94 | 15.5% | 10.2% | 5.2% | .298 | 4.62 | 19.0% | 12.0% | 249 | -1.32 | 2.90 | 806 | 74 |
| David Fletcher R 2028 · 5.65 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.65 | 7.6% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.65 | 100 | 74 |
| Scott McGregor R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.41 | 11.8% | 7.6% | 2.4% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.41 | 107 | 74 |
| Mike Connolly R 2024 · 5.12 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.12 | 13.2% | 9.4% | 3.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 328 | 74 |
| Hector Galvan R 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.97 | 11.2% | 8.5% | 3.2% | .307 | 4.27 | 13.2% | 3.1% | 162 | -0.70 | 3.59 | 406 | 74 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.