Kyle Larsen
P
Greensboro Grasshoppers
Age 23
RHP
6'2" / 240 lbs
A+
2026 ROS PROJECTION44 act + 25 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 106
ERA4.64
FIP4.64
K%22.3%
BB%11.1%
K-BB%11.2%
ROS IP25
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | ACL Rangers | 1 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 2.7 | 8.3% | 33.3% | -25.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 6.62 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | ACL Rangers | 1 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 2.7 | 8.3% | 33.3% | -25.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 6.85 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 14 | 60 | 287 | 63 | 43 | 6 | 70% | 3.0 | 15.8% | 17.9% | -2.0% | 2.7% | 5.07 | 5.50 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 14 | 60 | 287 | 63 | 43 | 6 | 70% | 3.0 | 22.0% | 15.0% | 7.0% | 2.1% | 5.07 | 4.44 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 0 | 33 | 148 | 44 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.6 | 21.4% | 13.8% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 4.09 | 4.71 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 0 | 33 | 148 | 44 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.6 | 29.7% | 11.5% | 18.2% | 2.7% | 4.09 | 3.55 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 25 | 0 | 44 | 199 | 50 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 1.8 | 19.3% | 13.3% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 5.11 | 5.22 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | PIT | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 24 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 3.0% | 4.64 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.3% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 3.0% | 4.64 | 4.64 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 69 | 305 | 74 | 35 | 9 | — | — | 24.1% | 11.4% | 12.7% | 3.0% | 4.94 | 5.01 | -0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 22.3% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 3.0% | 4.64 | 4.26 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | PIT | 24 | 0 | 26 | 109 | 25 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 10.3% | 12.7% | 3.0% | 4.52 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | PIT | 10 | 0 | 11 | 46 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 10.3% | 12.7% | 3.0% | 4.52 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 11 | 0 | 11 | 47 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 10.3% | 12.7% | 3.0% | 4.52 | 4.09 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 197 | 89 | 18 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 10.3% | 12.7% | 3.0% | 4.52 | 4.09 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 66 | 15 | 140 | 646 | 117 | 102 | 20 | 23% | 2.1 | 18.1% | 15.8% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 4.76 | 5.25 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 94 | 21 | 200 | 923 | 167 | 146 | 28 | 23% | 2.1 | 18.1% | 15.8% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 4.76 | 5.25 | +0.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kyle Larsen (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.64 | 22.3% | 11.1% | 3.0% | — | 4.46 | 22.9% | 12.7% | 26 | -0.18 | — | — | — |
| Heath Holder R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.13 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -1.03 | 2.74 | 367 | 88 |
| Colby Morris R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .291 | 5.76 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.53 | 4.23 | 105 | 88 |
| Luis Romero R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.50 | 22.1% | 11.9% | 3.2% | .367 | 4.16 | 21.6% | 12.5% | 132 | -0.34 | 3.99 | 293 | 88 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.21 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.0% | .245 | 4.19 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.02 | 3.95 | 142 | 87 |
| Owen Holt R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.89 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .258 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 107 | +0.63 | 3.89 | 145 | 87 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2027 · 4.48 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.48 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.5% | .261 | 4.12 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 138 | -0.36 | 3.77 | 166 | 86 |
| Zac Ryan R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.74 | 20.5% | 10.9% | 1.8% | .233 | 3.92 | 21.6% | 6.9% | 124 | +0.18 | 3.74 | 184 | 86 |
| Luke Bell R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .295 | 5.85 | 13.1% | 1.3% | 66 | +1.96 | 3.89 | 110 | 85 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.86 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 2.5% | .353 | 4.73 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 54 | +0.87 | 3.86 | 106 | 85 |
| Cole Gordon R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 22.0% | 12.7% | 2.4% | .243 | 5.20 | 20.9% | 9.5% | 83 | +1.04 | 4.16 | 112 | 85 |
| Brandyn Sittinger R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.67 | 22.2% | 13.8% | 3.1% | .324 | 4.02 | 21.2% | 7.2% | 72 | -0.65 | 3.50 | 152 | 85 |
| Kyle Marman R 2025 · 3.98 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.98 | 22.2% | 12.8% | 2.1% | .270 | 5.27 | 22.5% | 8.4% | 71 | +1.29 | 3.98 | 117 | 85 |
| Kyle Schepel R 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.49 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 3.6% | .233 | 3.63 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 120 | -0.86 | 3.51 | 156 | 85 |
| Shane Broyles R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.90 | 21.9% | 11.5% | 2.2% | .338 | 3.59 | 25.7% | 14.5% | 159 | -0.31 | 3.10 | 218 | 84 |
| Alec Barger R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.33 | 21.7% | 13.6% | 2.5% | .289 | 4.24 | 21.3% | 9.4% | 148 | -0.09 | 3.96 | 242 | 84 |
| Tyler Bray R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.08 | 22.3% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .356 | 3.17 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 114 | -0.91 | 2.81 | 152 | 84 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2028 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .330 | 4.97 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.23 | 3.74 | 140 | 84 |
| Sean Isaac R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.27 | 19.5% | 12.3% | 2.3% | .342 | 3.78 | 25.0% | 10.7% | 128 | -0.49 | 3.26 | 155 | 84 |
| Harrison Cohen R 2027 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.55 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 4.01 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 99 | -0.54 | 2.09 | 146 | 84 |
| Jacob Dorris R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.86 | 26.9% | 12.4% | 2.7% | .295 | 4.59 | 19.2% | 8.8% | 88 | +0.73 | 3.86 | 130 | 83 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 25 | 22.6% | 10.7% | 1.15 | 4.58 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |