Kyle Larsen — OGILVIE

Kyle Larsen P Greensboro Grasshoppers

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 240 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 25 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 117

ERA5.29

FIP5.29

K%20.4%

BB%14.9%

K-BB%5.5%

ROS IP25

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	20	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	1	1	3	12	1	4	0	100%	2.7	8.3%	33.3%	-25.0%	0.0%	0.00	6.62	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	1	1	3	12	1	4	0	100%	2.7	8.3%	33.3%	-25.0%	0.0%	0.00	6.62	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	1	1	3	12	1	4	0	100%	2.7	8.3%	33.3%	-25.0%	0.0%	0.00	6.85	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	14	60	287	63	43	6	70%	3.0	15.8%	17.9%	-2.0%	2.8%	5.07	5.54	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	14	60	287	63	43	6	70%	3.0	15.8%	17.9%	-2.0%	2.8%	5.07	5.54	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	14	60	287	63	43	6	70%	3.0	22.0%	15.0%	7.0%	2.1%	5.07	4.44	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	0	33	148	44	17	4	0%	1.6	21.4%	13.8%	7.6%	3.3%	4.09	4.83	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	0	33	148	44	17	4	0%	1.6	21.4%	13.8%	7.6%	3.3%	4.09	4.83	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	0	33	148	44	17	4	0%	1.6	29.7%	11.5%	18.2%	2.7%	4.09	3.55	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	32	0	54	247	61	31	7	0%	1.7	18.9%	13.6%	5.3%	3.3%	5.53	5.03	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	32	0	54	247	61	31	7	0%	1.7	18.9%	13.6%	5.3%	3.3%	5.53	5.03	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	PIT	29	0	50	228	56	27	6	0%	1.7	24.6%	11.8%	12.7%	2.6%	5.40	3.97	—
2026	23	AA RAW	PIT	3	0	4	19	5	4	1	0%	1.2	26.3%	21.1%	5.3%	5.3%	7.36	6.43	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	PIT	53	0	56	235	50	31	7	0%	1.1	21.3%	13.0%	8.2%	3.0%	5.05	4.96	-0.3
2028	25	MLB MLE	PIT	54	0	56	238	52	28	7	0%	1.0	21.8%	11.8%	10.0%	3.0%	4.86	4.76	-0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	PIT	23	0	24	101	22	13	3	0%	1.0	21.3%	13.0%	8.2%	3.0%	5.05	4.96	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	PIT	35	0	37	156	34	19	5	0%	1.1	21.8%	11.8%	10.0%	3.0%	4.86	4.76	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		58	0	61	259	56	32	8	0%	1.1	21.6%	12.3%	9.3%	3.0%	4.93	4.46	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	182	104	26	0%	1.1	21.6%	12.3%	9.3%	3.0%	4.93	4.46	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		73	15	150	694	125	109	21	21%	2.1	18.0%	15.7%	2.2%	3.0%	4.93	5.23	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		98	20	200	927	167	146	28	21%	2.1	18.0%	15.7%	2.2%	3.0%	4.93	5.23	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kyle Larsen (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.29	20.4%	14.9%	3.0%	—	4.86	21.5%	9.1%	112	-0.43	—	—	—
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	91
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.76	23.1%	12.3%	156	-0.79	3.23	254	89
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	89
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	89
Tyler Santana R 2021 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.333	4.37	16.0%	5.7%	259	+0.09	3.37	399	88
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.17	18.2%	4.9%	93	-0.19	3.20	213	88
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	88
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	87
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.80	21.5%	10.0%	115	-0.58	4.73	183	87
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	86
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	86
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	85
Alaska Abney R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.301	3.89	17.4%	7.9%	104	-1.03	3.38	207	85
Jhonny Polanco R 2015 · 4.75 FIP	23	SW	4.75	18.9%	14.2%	2.6%	.283	4.06	21.3%	5.7%	48	-0.69	4.06	116	85
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	84
Sal Biasi R 2019 · 5.22 FIP	23	SU	5.22	20.1%	15.8%	3.3%	.295	7.66	15.3%	-0.2%	23	+2.44	4.68	188	84
Gabriel Ponce R 2022 · 4.45 FIP	23	SU	4.45	20.5%	14.5%	2.3%	.238	4.61	23.9%	9.0%	61	+0.16	4.45	161	84
Jake Gilbert R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	24	SU	4.14	22.1%	15.2%	1.8%	.314	4.65	18.2%	2.0%	53	+0.51	4.14	103	84
Bailey Dees R 2022 · 4.26 FIP	23	SU	4.26	21.3%	13.2%	2.4%	.248	4.35	21.3%	9.7%	278	+0.09	3.41	330	84
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	46	21.3%	12.9%	1.15	5.02
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64