Jefferson Jean

P Stockton Ports

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 170 lbs A peak 0.5 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	18	ROKOAK	2	2	5	6.75	6.10	10.7%	10.7%	—	K 10.7% · BB 10.7% · FIP 5.51
2024	19	MIX2 levels	14	10	45	6.75	5.20	25.9%	17.9%	—	K 18.3% · BB 21.5% · FIP 6.45
2025	20	AOAK	24	20	87	5.59	3.90	22.9%	14.6%	—	K 16.9% · BB 17.2% · FIP 4.79
2026	21	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	22	MLBOAK	—	—	0	6.15	6.15	16.7%	19.7%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBOAK	5	5	30	5.79	5.67	18.2%	17.1%	-0.1
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBOAK	8	8	43	5.49	5.36	19.0%	15.3%	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control25Command30

CompsKyle Larsen (age 21) · Jackson Fristoe (age 22) · Hunter Parks (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 150142vR 134

ERA6.15

FIP6.15

K%16.7%

BB%19.7%

K-BB%-3.0%

Proj IP61

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL2525

CMD3030

K†4050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	6	6	7	33	9	4	0	100%	1.2	27.3%	12.1%	15.2%	0.0%	4.91	2.33	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Athletics	6	6	7	33	9	4	0	100%	1.2	27.3%	12.1%	15.2%	0.0%	4.91	2.28	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL Athletics	2	2	5	28	3	3	1	100%	2.7	10.7%	10.7%	0.0%	3.6%	6.75	5.51	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	ACL Athletics	2	2	5	28	3	3	1	100%	2.7	10.7%	10.7%	0.0%	3.6%	6.75	6.10	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	10	45	224	58	40	7	71%	3.2	18.3%	21.5%	-3.2%	4.0%	6.75	6.45	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	10	45	224	58	40	7	71%	3.2	18.3%	21.5%	-3.2%	4.0%	6.75	6.45	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	10	45	224	58	40	7	71%	3.2	25.9%	17.9%	8.0%	3.1%	6.75	5.20	—
2025	20	A MLE	Stockton Ports	24	20	87	411	94	60	6	83%	3.6	16.9%	17.2%	-0.3%	1.7%	5.59	4.79	—
2025	20	A MLE	Stockton Ports	24	20	87	411	94	60	6	83%	3.6	16.9%	17.2%	-0.3%	1.7%	5.59	4.79	—
2025	20	A RAW	Stockton Ports	24	20	87	411	94	60	6	83%	3.6	22.9%	14.6%	8.3%	1.5%	5.59	3.90	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	OAK	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.7%	19.7%	-3.0%	2.9%	6.15	6.15	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	OAK	11	11	61	257	47	44	7	100%	5.5	18.2%	17.1%	1.1%	2.8%	5.79	5.67	-0.2
2029	24	MLB MLE	OAK	11	11	61	257	49	39	7	100%	5.5	19.0%	15.3%	3.8%	2.8%	5.49	5.36	+0.0
2030	25	MLB MLE	OAK	9	9	51	214	42	30	6	100%	5.6	19.6%	14.1%	5.4%	2.8%	5.28	5.17	+0.1
2031	26	MLB MLE	OAK	8	8	50	213	42	30	6	100%	6.3	19.8%	14.0%	5.9%	2.8%	5.18	5.13	+0.2
2032	27	MLB MLE	OAK	8	8	49	207	41	29	6	100%	6.1	19.8%	14.0%	5.8%	2.9%	5.17	5.16	+0.1
2033	28	MLB MLE	OAK	8	8	47	198	39	28	6	100%	5.9	19.7%	14.2%	5.5%	3.0%	5.22	5.25	+0.1
2034	29	MLB MLE	OAK	8	8	46	196	42	27	6	100%	5.8	21.4%	13.6%	7.8%	3.1%	5.15	5.11	+0.2
2035	30	MLB MLE	OAK	7	7	42	179	38	25	6	100%	6.1	21.1%	13.9%	7.2%	3.3%	5.23	5.29	+0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	OAK	5	5	30	127	23	22	4	100%	6.0	18.2%	17.1%	1.1%	2.8%	5.79	5.67	-0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	OAK	8	8	43	182	35	28	5	100%	5.4	19.0%	15.3%	3.8%	2.8%	5.49	5.36	+0.0
2030	25	MLB CTX	OAK	7	7	41	173	34	24	5	100%	5.9	19.6%	14.1%	5.4%	2.8%	5.28	5.17	+0.1
2031	26	MLB CTX	OAK	7	7	44	186	37	26	5	100%	6.3	19.8%	14.0%	5.9%	2.8%	5.18	5.13	+0.1
2032	27	MLB CTX	OAK	7	7	44	186	37	26	5	100%	6.3	19.8%	14.0%	5.8%	2.9%	5.17	5.16	+0.1
2033	28	MLB CTX	OAK	7	7	43	182	36	26	5	100%	6.1	19.7%	14.2%	5.5%	3.0%	5.22	5.25	+0.1
2034	29	MLB CTX	OAK	7	7	43	182	39	25	6	100%	6.1	21.4%	13.6%	7.8%	3.1%	5.15	5.11	+0.1
2035	30	MLB CTX	OAK	7	7	40	169	36	23	6	100%	5.7	21.1%	13.9%	7.2%	3.3%	5.23	5.29	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		56	56	328	1386	276	200	41	100%	5.9	19.9%	14.4%	5.5%	3.0%	5.29	4.87	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	168	122	25	100%	5.9	19.9%	14.4%	5.5%	3.0%	5.29	4.87	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		46	38	145	696	122	126	17	83%	3.2	17.6%	18.1%	-0.5%	2.4%	5.96	5.24	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	52	200	960	169	174	23	83%	3.2	17.6%	18.1%	-0.5%	2.4%	5.96	5.24	+0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AStockton Ports · 87 IPFIP 3.82 → 4.79 (+0.97)K% 22.9% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.87%	—	×0.740	16.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.60%	—	×1.180	17.23%
HR / BF /BF	1.46%	÷1.113	×1.300	1.70%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 123).

Result: FIP 3.82 → 4.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AStockton Ports · 27 IPFIP 5.88 → 6.92 (+1.04)K% 17.7% → 13.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.73%	—	×0.740	13.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.44%	—	×1.180	21.76%
HR / BF /BF	3.55%	÷1.164	×1.300	3.96%

Result: FIP 5.88 → 6.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Athletics · 18 IPFIP 3.20 → 5.66 (+2.46)K% 39.8% → 27.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.76%	—	×0.680	27.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.87%	—	×1.250	21.08%
HR / BF /BF	2.41%	÷0.852	×1.400	3.96%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 70).

Result: FIP 3.20 → 5.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Athletics · 5 IPFIP 5.51 → 6.96 (+1.44)K% 10.7% → 7.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	10.71%	—	×0.680	7.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.71%	—	×1.250	13.39%
HR / BF /BF	3.57%	÷0.989	×1.400	5.05%

Result: FIP 5.51 → 6.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKDSL Athletics · 7 IPFIP 2.33 → 3.45 (+1.12)K% 27.3% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.27%	—	×0.680	18.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.12%	—	×1.250	15.15%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.902	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.33 → 3.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jefferson Jean (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.15	16.7%	19.7%	2.9%	—	5.41	18.9%	3.3%	173	-0.74	—	—	—
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	90
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	85
Hunter Parks R 2023 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP	5.15	18.9%	19.3%	2.2%	.265	4.95	20.8%	4.6%	139	-0.20	4.42	301	83
Danny Flatt R 2024 · 6.12 FIP	20	SP-	6.12	14.5%	15.7%	4.1%	.304	5.81	13.0%	-1.9%	76	-0.31	5.37	122	82
Marco Jimenez R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	22	SP-	5.27	19.6%	17.7%	2.9%	.372	3.89	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.38	3.36	183	82
Gage Stanifer R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	20	SP	5.65	17.2%	21.4%	2.4%	.318	3.96	26.2%	11.6%	199	-1.69	2.85	301	81
Mason Pelio R 2023 · 6.38 FIP	23	SP-	6.38	13.3%	17.4%	4.0%	.255	5.88	9.0%	-12.8%	26	-0.50	5.88	122	80
Kohl Franklin R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.66	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.42	4.38	205	80
Holt Jones R 2022 · 6.63 FIP	23	SP	6.63	17.9%	19.5%	4.7%	.296	4.64	18.4%	0.8%	147	-1.99	4.21	254	80
Trey Riley R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	10.6%	19.0%	2.1%	.344	5.78	17.4%	5.2%	74	-0.00	4.35	227	79
Kevin Gowdy R 2019 · 5.31 FIP	21	SP-	5.31	11.1%	17.0%	1.8%	.321	5.50	16.3%	6.0%	130	+0.19	3.11	333	79
Peyton Pallette R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	15.1%	3.8%	.254	3.91	23.8%	12.0%	201	-1.65	3.54	273	79
Luis Mateo R 2015 · 5.17 FIP	22	SP-	5.17	11.4%	14.7%	2.1%	.315	5.67	15.0%	-1.3%	55	+0.50	4.52	112	79
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	79
Fernando Baez R 2015 · 6.56 FIP	23	SP-	6.56	18.6%	18.8%	4.8%	.322	4.51	26.9%	7.8%	94	-2.05	3.45	129	79
Carlos Marmol R 2006 · 5.89 FIP	23	SP-	5.89	16.6%	16.0%	3.9%	.252	3.03	31.5%	18.0%	231	-2.86	1.59	608	78
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	78
Rubén Menes R 2024 · 5.62 FIP	22	SP-	5.62	15.8%	15.2%	3.5%	.235	4.77	15.6%	2.4%	81	-0.85	3.39	112	78
Luis Mora R 2016 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	16.3%	15.4%	3.8%	.303	5.27	23.9%	1.2%	43	-0.51	3.95	119	78
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	52	19.3%	15.3%	1.13	5.44
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*