Jefferson Jean — OGILVIE

Jefferson Jean P Stockton Ports

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 170 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.0 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 152144vR 136

ERA6.25

FIP6.25

K%16.2%

BB%20.5%

K-BB%-4.3%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL2525

CMD3030

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-1	$0.4M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-2	$0.7M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	6	6	7	33	9	4	0	100%	1.2	27.3%	12.1%	15.2%	0.0%	4.91	2.33	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Athletics	6	6	7	33	9	4	0	100%	1.2	27.3%	12.1%	15.2%	0.0%	4.91	2.28	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL Athletics	2	2	5	28	3	3	1	100%	2.7	10.7%	10.7%	0.0%	3.6%	6.75	5.51	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL Athletics	2	2	5	28	3	3	1	100%	2.7	10.7%	10.7%	0.0%	3.6%	6.75	5.51	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	ACL Athletics	2	2	5	28	3	3	1	100%	2.7	10.7%	10.7%	0.0%	3.6%	6.75	6.10	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	10	45	224	58	40	7	71%	3.2	18.3%	21.5%	-3.2%	4.0%	6.75	6.45	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	10	45	224	58	40	7	71%	3.2	18.3%	21.5%	-3.2%	4.0%	6.75	6.45	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	10	45	224	58	40	7	71%	3.2	25.9%	17.9%	8.0%	3.1%	6.75	5.20	—
2025	20	A MLE	Stockton Ports	24	20	87	411	94	60	6	83%	3.6	16.9%	17.2%	-0.3%	1.7%	5.59	4.79	—
2025	20	A MLE	Stockton Ports	24	20	87	411	94	60	6	83%	3.6	16.9%	17.2%	-0.3%	1.7%	5.59	4.79	—
2025	20	A RAW	Stockton Ports	24	20	87	411	94	60	6	83%	3.6	22.9%	14.6%	8.3%	1.5%	5.59	3.90	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	21	MLB	OAK	1	1	5	21	3	4	1	100%	5.0	16.2%	20.5%	-4.3%	2.8%	6.25	6.25	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	OAK	15	15	82	347	62	61	10	100%	5.5	18.0%	17.5%	0.5%	2.8%	5.84	5.70	-0.7
2028	23	MLB MLE	OAK	16	16	85	360	69	56	10	100%	5.3	19.0%	15.5%	3.5%	2.7%	5.50	5.34	-0.4
2029	24	MLB MLE	OAK	16	16	87	369	73	53	10	100%	5.5	19.7%	14.3%	5.5%	2.7%	5.25	5.11	-0.2
2030	25	MLB MLE	OAK	15	15	88	374	75	50	10	100%	5.9	20.2%	13.5%	6.7%	2.7%	5.08	4.98	-0.1
2031	26	MLB MLE	OAK	15	15	88	374	76	50	10	100%	5.9	20.3%	13.5%	6.9%	2.7%	5.00	4.95	-0.1
2032	27	MLB MLE	OAK	15	15	87	368	75	50	10	100%	5.8	20.3%	13.5%	6.8%	2.8%	5.00	4.99	-0.1
2033	28	MLB MLE	OAK	14	14	85	357	72	49	10	100%	6.0	20.2%	13.7%	6.5%	2.9%	5.05	5.08	-0.2
2034	29	MLB MLE	OAK	13	13	81	341	68	47	10	100%	6.2	20.0%	13.9%	6.1%	3.0%	5.14	5.21	-0.3
2035	30	MLB MLE	OAK	13	13	76	321	69	43	10	100%	5.8	21.6%	13.4%	8.2%	3.2%	5.12	5.11	-0.2
2027	22	MLB CTX	OAK	7	7	40	169	30	30	5	100%	5.7	18.0%	17.5%	0.5%	2.7%	5.80	5.66	-0.4
2028	23	MLB CTX	OAK	11	11	62	262	50	41	7	100%	5.6	19.0%	15.5%	3.5%	2.7%	5.46	5.30	-0.3
2029	24	MLB CTX	OAK	13	13	72	304	60	43	8	100%	5.5	19.7%	14.3%	5.5%	2.7%	5.21	5.07	-0.2
2030	25	MLB CTX	OAK	13	13	78	329	66	44	9	100%	6.0	20.2%	13.5%	6.7%	2.6%	5.04	4.94	-0.1
2031	26	MLB CTX	OAK	14	14	81	342	70	46	9	100%	5.8	20.3%	13.5%	6.9%	2.6%	4.96	4.91	-0.0
2032	27	MLB CTX	OAK	14	14	81	342	70	46	9	100%	5.8	20.3%	13.5%	6.8%	2.7%	4.96	4.95	-0.1
2033	28	MLB CTX	OAK	13	13	79	334	67	46	9	100%	6.1	20.2%	13.7%	6.5%	2.8%	5.01	5.04	-0.2
2034	29	MLB CTX	OAK	13	13	77	325	65	45	10	100%	5.9	20.0%	13.9%	6.1%	2.9%	5.10	5.17	-0.3
2035	30	MLB CTX	OAK	12	12	72	304	66	41	10	100%	6.0	21.6%	13.4%	8.2%	3.1%	5.08	5.07	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		111	111	643	2715	544	383	75	100%	5.8	20.1%	14.1%	6.0%	2.8%	5.14	4.71	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	169	119	23	100%	5.8	20.1%	14.1%	6.0%	2.8%	5.14	4.71	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		46	38	145	696	122	126	17	83%	3.2	17.6%	18.1%	-0.5%	2.4%	5.96	5.24	-2.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	52	200	960	169	174	23	83%	3.2	17.6%	18.1%	-0.5%	2.4%	5.96	5.24	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jefferson Jean (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.25	16.2%	20.5%	2.8%	—	5.38	18.9%	3.2%	255	-0.87	—	—	—
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	84
Keythel Key R 2023 · 5.77 FIP	19	SP-	5.77	13.7%	20.1%	2.3%	.290	5.29	18.8%	2.9%	228	-0.48	4.98	272	83
Trey Riley R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	10.6%	19.0%	2.1%	.344	5.78	17.4%	5.2%	74	-0.00	4.35	227	82
Kevin Gowdy R 2019 · 5.31 FIP	21	SP-	5.31	11.1%	17.0%	1.8%	.321	5.50	16.3%	6.0%	130	+0.19	3.16	333	81
Jose Diaz R 2021 · 5.27 FIP	21	SP	5.27	16.5%	17.5%	2.5%	.357	5.01	17.6%	0.9%	89	-0.26	3.91	189	80
Luis Mateo R 2015 · 5.17 FIP	22	SP-	5.17	11.4%	14.7%	2.1%	.315	5.67	15.0%	-1.3%	55	+0.50	4.52	112	80
Felix Cepeda R 2021 · 5.96 FIP	21	SP	5.96	17.0%	21.6%	2.8%	.276	4.78	17.6%	0.9%	144	-1.18	3.58	204	80
Mason McGwire R 2023 · 6.54 FIP	19	SP	6.54	13.2%	19.6%	3.8%	.374	4.91	18.1%	3.8%	120	-1.63	4.11	155	80
Mason Pelio R 2023 · 6.38 FIP	23	SP-	6.38	13.3%	17.4%	4.0%	.255	5.88	9.0%	-12.8%	26	-0.50	5.88	122	80
Jake Madden R 2023 · 5.46 FIP	21	SP	5.46	15.9%	15.2%	3.2%	.299	4.57	14.1%	-1.1%	44	-0.89	4.57	123	80
Marco Jimenez R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	22	SP-	5.27	19.6%	17.7%	2.9%	.372	3.89	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.38	3.36	183	79
Chad Bryant R 2021 · 6.29 FIP	21	SP-	6.29	14.8%	20.7%	3.3%	.337	5.59	16.0%	-3.4%	81	-0.70	3.93	136	79
Randry De Leon R 2023 · 6.45 FIP	18	SP-	6.45	17.7%	20.2%	4.2%	.308	4.83	18.4%	3.3%	123	-1.62	4.37	153	79
Kohl Franklin R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.66	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.42	4.68	198	78
Holt Jones R 2022 · 6.63 FIP	23	SP	6.63	17.9%	19.5%	4.7%	.296	4.64	18.4%	0.8%	147	-1.99	3.37	241	78
Camilo Sanchez R 2023 · 6.65 FIP	20	SP-	6.65	10.0%	18.5%	3.8%	.317	5.84	14.8%	0.8%	62	-0.81	3.57	117	78
Luis Mora R 2016 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	16.3%	15.4%	3.8%	.303	5.27	23.9%	1.2%	43	-0.51	3.95	119	78
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.67	16.8%	7.0%	338	-0.92	4.16	404	78
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	78
Peyton Pallette R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	15.1%	3.8%	.254	4.00	23.2%	11.3%	197	-1.56	3.60	269	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.1	82	19.6%	14.8%	1.09	5.29
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59