Jefferson Jean
P
Stockton Ports
+0.0
WAR
Age 21
RHP
6'3" / 170 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 2.3 · 2031
ERA4.90
FIP4.90
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.8%
BB%12.9%
K-BB%7.9%
IP87
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.3peak
2031
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Athletics | 6 | 6 | 7 | 33 | 9 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 4.91 | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | ACL Athletics | 2 | 2 | 5 | 28 | 3 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | 6.75 | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A | Stockton Ports | 14 | 10 | 45 | 224 | 58 | 40 | 7 | 18.3% | 21.5% | 4.1% | 6.75 | 6.53 | -0.8 |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Stockton Ports | 24 | 20 | 87 | 411 | 94 | 60 | 6 | 16.9% | 17.2% | 1.7% | 5.59 | 4.78 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | MLB | OAK | 16 | 16 | 87 | 367 | 76 | 47 | 10 | 20.8% | 12.9% | 2.8% | 4.90 | 4.90 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | OAK | 21 | 21 | 113 | 479 | 104 | 54 | 13 | 21.8% | 11.3% | 2.8% | 4.68 | 4.58 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | OAK | 25 | 25 | 138 | 581 | 131 | 60 | 16 | 22.5% | 10.2% | 2.7% | 4.49 | 4.38 | +1.4 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | OAK | 29 | 29 | 157 | 663 | 153 | 64 | 18 | 23.1% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 4.34 | 4.24 | +1.9 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | OAK | 31 | 31 | 171 | 722 | 169 | 67 | 20 | 23.4% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 4.23 | 4.16 | +2.2 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | OAK | 32 | 32 | 178 | 752 | 178 | 69 | 20 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 4.18 | 4.14 | +2.3 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 32 | 32 | 177 | 746 | 176 | 69 | 20 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 4.16 | 4.15 | +2.3 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 32 | 32 | 174 | 735 | 173 | 68 | 20 | 23.6% | 9.3% | 2.8% | 4.17 | 4.17 | +2.2 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 31 | 31 | 170 | 719 | 169 | 67 | 20 | 23.5% | 9.3% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 4.22 | +2.1 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 30 | 30 | 165 | 697 | 162 | 66 | 20 | 23.3% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 4.25 | 4.28 | +1.9 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 29 | 29 | 159 | 673 | 155 | 64 | 20 | 23.0% | 9.6% | 2.9% | 4.31 | 4.36 | +1.7 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB | OAK | 28 | 28 | 153 | 646 | 147 | 63 | 19 | 22.7% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.44 | +1.5 |
| 2038 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 27 | 27 | 146 | 616 | 138 | 61 | 19 | 22.4% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 4.48 | 4.54 | +1.3 |
| 2039 | 34 | MLB | OAK | 25 | 25 | 139 | 586 | 129 | 59 | 19 | 22.1% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 4.58 | 4.65 | +1.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 46 | 38 | 145 | 696 | 122 | 126 | 17 | 17.6% | 18.1% | 2.5% | 5.96 | 5.26 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 63 | 52 | 200 | 960 | 168 | 174 | 23 | 17.6% | 18.1% | 2.5% | 5.96 | 5.26 | +0.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jefferson Jean (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.90 | 20.8% | 12.9% | 2.8% | — | 4.38 | 22.5% | 12.3% | 408 | -0.52 | — | — | — |
| Hunter Parks R 2026 · 5.29 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.29 | 18.7% | 16.8% | 3.0% | .312 | 5.29 | 17.8% | -0.6% | 163 | +0.00 | 5.01 | 246 | 94 |
| Zack Bird R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.55 | 18.1% | 15.6% | 1.8% | .281 | 5.34 | 10.8% | -7.7% | 48 | +0.79 | 4.55 | 149 | 91 |
| Jacob Watters R 2027 · 4.93 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.93 | 18.3% | 17.1% | 2.2% | .319 | 4.39 | 17.0% | 5.1% | 81 | -0.54 | 3.86 | 165 | 90 |
| R.J. Freure R 2027 · 5.14 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.14 | 21.7% | 18.5% | 2.8% | .286 | 5.83 | 21.4% | 4.2% | 107 | +0.69 | 5.14 | 196 | 90 |
| James McArthur R 2027 · 5.06 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.06 | 18.8% | 15.5% | 2.9% | .304 | 4.44 | 20.0% | 10.7% | 131 | -0.62 | 3.54 | 352 | 90 |
| Max Bain R 2028 · 5.17 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.17 | 20.5% | 15.2% | 3.4% | .291 | 6.72 | 16.7% | -3.9% | 81 | +1.55 | 5.17 | 174 | 89 |
| Keythel Key R 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.23 | 18.7% | 15.2% | 3.2% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.98 | 237 | 89 |
| Juaron Watts-Brown R 2027 · 5.24 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.24 | 21.8% | 15.4% | 3.7% | .294 | 4.20 | 24.4% | 13.6% | 124 | -1.04 | 4.20 | 227 | 89 |
| J.P. Massey R 2028 · 4.96 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.96 | 18.2% | 16.0% | 2.5% | .259 | 5.11 | 15.9% | 0.6% | 115 | +0.15 | 4.70 | 195 | 89 |
| Matt Ruppenthal R 2028 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.51 | 19.1% | 14.3% | 2.2% | .290 | 4.25 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 143 | -0.26 | 3.75 | 283 | 88 |
| Nolan DeVos R 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.17 | 21.1% | 14.0% | 2.0% | .302 | 5.82 | 12.3% | -1.5% | 12 | +1.65 | 4.17 | 110 | 88 |
| Kyle Bradish R 2027 · 4.55 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.55 | 20.8% | 13.7% | 2.7% | .309 | 3.87 | 24.1% | 14.7% | 238 | -0.68 | 2.16 | 615 | 88 |
| Aaron Davenport R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.86 | 20.0% | 13.2% | 3.2% | .280 | 5.01 | 16.9% | 5.2% | 391 | +0.15 | 4.06 | 498 | 87 |
| Braden Webb R 2027 · 4.45 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.45 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 2.4% | .276 | 4.79 | 17.9% | 1.8% | 172 | +0.34 | 4.45 | 308 | 87 |
| Garrett Cave R 2027 · 4.99 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.99 | 16.4% | 14.9% | 2.5% | .301 | 4.97 | 17.8% | -8.8% | 40 | -0.02 | 4.97 | 156 | 87 |
| Jimmy Endersby R 2028 · 4.24 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.24 | 20.9% | 14.1% | 2.0% | .310 | 5.78 | 16.4% | 3.7% | 225 | +1.54 | 2.86 | 357 | 86 |
| Tyler Brown R 2027 · 5.66 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.66 | 20.2% | 15.0% | 4.3% | .332 | 5.47 | 19.1% | 7.4% | 114 | -0.19 | 4.50 | 205 | 86 |
| Kyle Johnston R 2027 · 4.52 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.52 | 16.2% | 13.8% | 1.9% | .290 | 4.08 | 16.4% | 4.5% | 194 | -0.44 | 3.80 | 395 | 86 |
| José Leclerc R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.03 | 16.8% | 17.0% | 2.2% | .304 | 3.16 | 30.0% | 15.1% | 184 | -1.87 | 1.47 | 527 | 86 |
| Hayden Merda R 2028 · 5.20 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.20 | 16.1% | 15.3% | 2.8% | .325 | 4.97 | 21.5% | 6.1% | 54 | -0.23 | 4.97 | 150 | 86 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +2.3 | $21M | +$20M |
| 2032 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +2.3 | $22M | +$21M |
| 2033 | Pre-Arb | $1M | +2.2 | $22M | +$21M |
| 2034 | Arb-1 | $3M | +2.1 | $21M | +$18M |
| 2035 | Arb-2 | $4M | +1.9 | $20M | +$16M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $10M | $106M | +$96M | ||