Mason Pelio — OGILVIE

Mason Pelio P Daytona Tortugas

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 230 lbs A

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145137vR 129

ERA5.89

FIP5.89

K%16.0%

BB%16.9%

K-BB%-0.9%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	2	2	2	8	2	2	0	100%	1.0	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	4.16	—
2022	22	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	2	2	2	8	2	2	0	100%	1.0	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	4.10	—
2023	23	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	25	20	96	428	77	63	14	80%	3.8	13.3%	17.4%	-4.1%	4.0%	5.06	6.38	—
2023	23	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	25	20	96	428	77	63	14	80%	3.8	13.3%	17.4%	-4.1%	4.0%	5.06	6.38	—
2023	23	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	25	20	96	428	77	63	14	80%	3.8	18.0%	14.7%	3.3%	3.3%	5.06	5.36	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	10	31	156	20	29	2	91%	2.8	9.0%	21.8%	-12.8%	1.4%	7.26	5.88	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	10	31	156	20	29	2	91%	2.8	9.0%	21.8%	-12.8%	1.4%	7.26	5.88	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	10	31	156	20	29	2	91%	2.8	12.8%	18.6%	-5.8%	1.3%	7.26	5.45	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	4	9	39	7	7	0	100%	2.2	17.9%	17.9%	0.0%	0.0%	4.00	3.86	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	4	9	39	7	7	0	100%	2.2	17.9%	17.9%	0.0%	0.0%	4.00	3.86	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	4	9	39	7	7	0	100%	2.2	17.9%	17.9%	0.0%	0.0%	4.00	3.88	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	CIN	1	1	2	8	1	1	0	100%	2.0	16.0%	16.9%	-0.9%	3.0%	5.89	5.89	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CIN	5	5	28	116	19	19	3	100%	5.5	16.8%	16.2%	0.5%	3.0%	5.76	5.77	-0.3
2027	27	MLB CTX	CIN	2	2	10	42	7	7	1	100%	5.0	16.8%	16.2%	0.5%	3.0%	5.76	5.77	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	10	42	7	7	1	100%	5.0	16.8%	16.2%	0.5%	3.0%	5.76	5.39	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	140	140	20	100%	6.0	16.8%	16.2%	0.5%	3.0%	5.76	5.39	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		42	36	138	631	80	117	19	86%	3.3	12.7%	18.6%	-5.9%	3.1%	5.41	6.07	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	52	200	914	116	170	28	86%	3.3	12.7%	18.6%	-5.9%	3.1%	5.41	6.07	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mason Pelio (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.89	16.0%	16.9%	3.0%	—	5.77	16.8%	0.5%	28	-0.12	—	—	—
Noah Song R 2023 · 6.06 FIP	26	SP	6.06	12.0%	13.2%	4.2%	.239	3.84	19.6%	8.0%	114	-2.22	3.68	136	80
Luis Niebla R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP-	5.12	11.6%	13.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	156	75
Johnny Hellweg R 2015 · 5.96 FIP	26	SP	5.96	9.9%	19.0%	2.4%	.269	4.06	15.2%	2.0%	48	-1.90	2.98	109	74
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	74
Holt Jones R 2023 · 5.06 FIP	24	SP-	5.06	16.1%	17.9%	1.9%	.285	4.01	21.7%	7.0%	161	-1.05	3.37	241	70
Tony Dibrell R 2022 · 4.96 FIP	26	SP-	4.96	23.8%	17.4%	3.0%	.314	8.67	12.7%	-1.7%	29	+3.71	4.18	347	70
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	247	70
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	69
Andre Jackson R 2022 · 5.50 FIP	26	SP	5.50	18.8%	18.0%	3.1%	.279	4.72	22.3%	12.1%	100	-0.78	3.84	459	68
J.T. Ginn R 2023 · 5.36 FIP	24	SP	5.36	8.3%	13.2%	2.3%	.305	4.19	21.4%	12.9%	387	-1.17	3.12	536	67
Carlos Tavera R 2023 · 5.86 FIP	24	SP-	5.86	19.6%	17.3%	4.0%	.267	5.23	18.9%	5.6%	114	-0.63	3.91	263	67
Nick Pasquale R 2017 · 4.74 FIP	26	SP-	4.74	16.8%	12.7%	2.6%	.306	3.80	17.9%	6.3%	50	-0.94	3.19	308	67
Lucas Erceg R 2021 · 5.61 FIP	26	SP-	5.61	17.1%	18.1%	3.0%	.258	3.37	25.0%	13.8%	193	-2.24	2.10	346	66
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.41	25.9%	11.8%	106	-0.76	3.84	202	65
Mason Erla R 2023 · 6.22 FIP	25	SP	6.22	13.2%	12.5%	4.8%	.350	4.03	15.7%	7.9%	75	-2.19	3.11	206	65
Kevin Abel R 2023 · 5.01 FIP	24	SP-	5.01	21.1%	17.2%	2.8%	.347	4.71	18.1%	4.5%	345	-0.30	4.50	448	65
Keyvius Sampson R 2017 · 5.08 FIP	26	SP-	5.08	19.6%	16.4%	2.8%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	316	64
Riley Thompson R 2022 · 5.32 FIP	26	SP	5.32	21.7%	14.7%	4.0%	.289	5.08	17.3%	6.7%	189	-0.24	4.53	340	64
Grant Judkins R 2022 · 6.22 FIP	24	SP	6.22	15.8%	13.4%	5.0%	.306	5.53	15.7%	6.6%	207	-0.69	5.13	322	64
Logan Boyer R 2021 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	17.0%	12.7%	4.2%	.306	3.71	25.0%	12.7%	27	-1.89	3.71	121	63

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	27	16.4%	16.6%	1.15	5.82
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48