Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | ACL Reds | 6 | 3 | 11 | 45 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 50% | 1.9 | 28.9% | 8.9% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 1.59 | 1.79 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | ACL Reds | 6 | 3 | 11 | 45 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 50% | 1.9 | 28.9% | 8.9% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 1.59 | 1.86 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 25 | 14 | 82 | 372 | 94 | 53 | 7 | 56% | 3.3 | 18.7% | 16.8% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 4.70 | 5.41 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 25 | 14 | 82 | 372 | 94 | 53 | 7 | 56% | 3.3 | 25.3% | 14.2% | 11.0% | 1.9% | 4.70 | 3.85 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 22 | 22 | 80 | 358 | 88 | 60 | 6 | 100% | 3.6 | 18.9% | 19.3% | -0.3% | 2.3% | 4.18 | 5.22 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 22 | 22 | 80 | 358 | 88 | 60 | 6 | 100% | 3.6 | 24.6% | 16.8% | 7.8% | 1.7% | 4.18 | 4.13 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 8 | 8 | 28 | 139 | 27 | 28 | 1 | 100% | 3.5 | 15.7% | 22.2% | -6.4% | 0.7% | 6.83 | 4.98 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 8 | 8 | 28 | 139 | 27 | 28 | 1 | 100% | 3.5 | 19.4% | 20.1% | -0.7% | 0.7% | 6.83 | 4.65 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 6 | 56 | 266 | 55 | 38 | 8 | 20% | 1.9 | 17.2% | 15.3% | 1.9% | 4.0% | 5.30 | 5.76 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 6 | 56 | 266 | 55 | 38 | 8 | 20% | 1.9 | 20.7% | 14.3% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 5.30 | 5.03 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 29 | 0 | 33 | 141 | 47 | 20 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.1% | 15.2% | 12.9% | 1.6% | 3.31 | 3.51 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CIN | 33 | 0 | 35 | 147 | 28 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.2% | 13.8% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 5.39 | 5.39 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CIN | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.2% | 13.8% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 5.39 | 5.39 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 68 | 288 | 75 | 40 | 7 | — | — | 26.1% | 14.0% | 12.1% | 2.4% | 4.38 | 4.48 | +0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 3 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 0 | — | — | 19.2% | 13.8% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 5.39 | 5.01 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 33 | 0 | 35 | 147 | 30 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.1% | 13.3% | 6.8% | 3.2% | 5.26 | 5.24 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 33 | 0 | 34 | 145 | 29 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.3% | 13.1% | 7.2% | 3.3% | 5.20 | 5.21 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 32 | 0 | 33 | 141 | 29 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.3% | 13.0% | 7.3% | 3.3% | 5.21 | 5.25 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 16 | 0 | 17 | 72 | 14 | 10 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.1% | 13.3% | 6.8% | 3.2% | 5.26 | 5.24 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 22 | 0 | 23 | 97 | 20 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.3% | 13.1% | 7.2% | 3.3% | 5.20 | 5.21 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 22 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.3% | 13.0% | 7.3% | 3.3% | 5.21 | 5.25 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 59 | 38 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.2% | 13.2% | 7.0% | 3.3% | 5.23 | 4.86 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 171 | 110 | 29 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.2% | 13.2% | 7.0% | 3.3% | 5.23 | 4.86 | +1.3 | ||
| Career | — | 120 | 53 | 290 | 1321 | 258 | 228 | 34 | 44% | 2.4 | 19.5% | 17.3% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 4.60 | 5.05 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 83 | 37 | 200 | 912 | 178 | 158 | 23 | 44% | 2.4 | 19.5% | 17.3% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 4.60 | 5.05 | +0.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Hunter Parks (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.39 | 19.2% | 13.8% | 3.2% | — | 5.23 | 20.2% | 7.1% | 103 | -0.16 | — | — | — |
| Brad Deppermann R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.65 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.44 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -1.21 | 1.94 | 143 | 84 |
| Grant Black R 2028 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 84 |
| Jimmy Joyce R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.56 | 17.8% | 14.2% | 2.1% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 259 | 81 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.26 | 17.4% | 11.5% | 4.0% | .321 | 3.22 | 25.9% | 16.8% | 60 | -2.04 | 2.63 | 213 | 80 |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 5.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.76 | 16.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 105 | 79 |
| Andrew McInvale R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.08 | 17.6% | 15.9% | 2.6% | .324 | 7.06 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 23 | +1.98 | 4.90 | 103 | 79 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.26 | 18.9% | 10.2% | 2.7% | .271 | 4.65 | 19.5% | 11.5% | 99 | +0.39 | 3.81 | 233 | 79 |
| Stephen Johnson R 2026 · 5.44 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.44 | 16.7% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 141 | 78 |
| Kevin Kopps R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.78 | 20.2% | 15.1% | 2.7% | .278 | 4.59 | 16.5% | 2.8% | 182 | -0.19 | 3.64 | 237 | 78 |
| Preston Johnson R 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.04 | 21.1% | 17.2% | 2.8% | .270 | 3.47 | 23.4% | 13.9% | 42 | -1.57 | 3.47 | 146 | 78 |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.19 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.43 | 18.4% | 2.3% | 111 | +0.24 | 3.87 | 192 | 78 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.73 | 19.3% | 12.6% | 3.0% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 106 | 78 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2026 · 5.50 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.50 | 22.7% | 16.4% | 4.1% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 181 | 78 |
| Jordan Brink R 2024 · 5.96 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.96 | 18.3% | 19.2% | 3.6% | .233 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 132 | 77 |
| Heath Slatton R 2024 · 5.54 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.54 | 17.9% | 12.9% | 4.2% | .382 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.46 | 120 | 77 |
| Fernando Cruz R 2026 · 5.41 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.41 | 15.6% | 12.2% | 3.8% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.52 | 356 | 77 |
| Haden Erbe R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.35 | 18.4% | 16.5% | 3.1% | .320 | 5.49 | 17.8% | 0.5% | 40 | +0.14 | 5.17 | 116 | 76 |
| Sean Isaac R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.25 | 24.2% | 16.3% | 2.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 155 | 76 |
| Trevor Martin R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.57 | 18.8% | 12.0% | 2.8% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 321 | 76 |
| Derek Gordon R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.72 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.9% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 146 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 34 | 20.0% | 13.3% | 1.26 | 5.27 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |