Gage Stanifer — OGILVIE

Gage Stanifer P New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 208 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.4 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION68 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 102

ERA4.46

FIP4.46

K%26.9%

BB%15.0%

K-BB%11.9%

ROS IP65

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 133 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5555

CTRL4045

CMD3545

K†6065

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2030	Arb-1	$6M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$10M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$14M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$14M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	19	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	11	7	43	193	47	23	3	64%	3.9	16.6%	14.9%	1.7%	2.2%	6.33	4.77	—
2023	19	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	11	7	43	193	47	23	3	64%	3.9	24.4%	11.9%	12.4%	1.6%	6.33	3.43	—
2024	20	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	19	17	60	276	64	50	5	89%	3.1	17.2%	21.4%	-4.2%	2.3%	6.34	5.64	—
2024	20	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	19	17	60	276	64	50	5	89%	3.1	23.2%	18.1%	5.1%	1.8%	6.34	4.56	—
2025	21	MIX	3 levels	27	16	110	453	161	58	4	59%	4.1	27.9%	13.6%	14.3%	0.8%	2.86	2.92	—
2025	21	MIX	3 levels	27	16	110	453	161	58	4	59%	4.1	35.5%	12.8%	22.7%	0.9%	2.86	2.23	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	16	16	68	303	89	38	11	100%	4.3	23.8%	13.8%	10.0%	4.4%	4.48	5.23	-0.4
ROS	22	MLB	TOR	13	13	65	274	74	41	7	100%	5.0	26.9%	15.0%	11.9%	2.5%	4.46	4.46	+0.1
ROS	22	MLB	TOR	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	100%	1.0	26.9%	15.0%	11.9%	2.5%	4.46	4.46	+0.0
2026 TOT	22	MLB	TOR	—	—	133	577	163	79	18	—	—	28.2%	13.7%	14.5%	3.1%	4.47	4.85	+0.8
2026 FULL	22	MLB	TOR	—	—	1	5	1	1	0	—	—	26.9%	15.0%	11.9%	2.5%	4.46	4.08	+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	TOR	24	24	127	538	146	70	13	100%	5.3	27.2%	13.1%	14.1%	2.5%	4.30	4.20	+1.8
2028	24	MLB	TOR	28	28	157	661	181	79	16	100%	5.6	27.4%	11.9%	15.5%	2.5%	4.15	4.04	+2.5
2029	25	MLB	TOR	30	30	175	739	203	82	18	100%	5.8	27.5%	11.1%	16.3%	2.5%	4.03	3.94	+3.0
2030	26	MLB	TOR	29	29	175	739	204	81	19	100%	6.0	27.6%	11.0%	16.5%	2.5%	3.97	3.93	+3.0
2031	27	MLB	TOR	29	29	172	728	200	81	19	100%	5.9	27.5%	11.1%	16.4%	2.6%	3.97	3.97	+2.9
2032	28	MLB	TOR	28	28	167	706	194	79	19	100%	6.0	27.4%	11.2%	16.2%	2.7%	4.02	4.05	+2.6
2033	29	MLB	TOR	27	27	160	674	183	77	19	100%	5.9	27.2%	11.5%	15.7%	2.8%	4.12	4.18	+2.3
2034	30	MLB	TOR	25	25	150	634	170	75	19	100%	6.0	26.8%	11.8%	15.1%	3.0%	4.26	4.36	+1.8
2035	31	MLB	TOR	23	23	140	591	156	72	19	100%	6.1	26.4%	12.1%	14.3%	3.2%	4.44	4.56	+1.4
2036	32	MLB	TOR	22	22	130	547	142	68	19	100%	5.9	26.0%	12.5%	13.5%	3.5%	4.65	4.79	+0.9
2037	33	MLB	TOR	20	20	119	502	128	65	19	100%	5.9	25.5%	13.0%	12.5%	3.8%	4.88	5.04	+0.5
2038	34	MLB	TOR	18	18	108	456	114	61	19	100%	6.0	24.9%	13.5%	11.5%	4.1%	5.14	5.31	+0.1
2027	23	MLB	TOR	12	12	64	270	73	35	7	100%	5.3	27.2%	13.1%	14.1%	2.5%	4.30	4.20	+0.3
2028	24	MLB	TOR	20	20	110	464	127	55	12	100%	5.5	27.4%	11.9%	15.5%	2.5%	4.15	4.04	+1.7
2029	25	MLB	TOR	24	24	142	600	165	67	15	100%	5.9	27.5%	11.1%	16.3%	2.5%	4.03	3.94	+2.4
2030	26	MLB	TOR	26	26	153	646	178	71	16	100%	5.9	27.6%	11.0%	16.5%	2.5%	3.97	3.93	+2.6
2031	27	MLB	TOR	26	26	156	659	181	73	17	100%	6.0	27.5%	11.1%	16.4%	2.6%	3.97	3.97	+2.6
2032	28	MLB	TOR	26	26	154	650	178	73	17	100%	5.9	27.4%	11.2%	16.2%	2.7%	4.02	4.05	+2.4
2033	29	MLB	TOR	25	25	149	629	171	72	18	100%	6.0	27.2%	11.5%	15.7%	2.8%	4.12	4.18	+2.1
2034	30	MLB	TOR	24	24	141	595	160	70	18	100%	5.9	26.8%	11.8%	15.1%	3.0%	4.26	4.36	+1.7
2035	31	MLB	TOR	22	22	133	562	148	68	18	100%	6.0	26.4%	12.1%	14.3%	3.2%	4.44	4.56	+1.3
2036	32	MLB	TOR	20	20	123	519	135	65	18	100%	6.2	26.0%	12.5%	13.5%	3.5%	4.65	4.79	+0.9
2037	33	MLB	TOR	19	19	113	477	122	62	18	100%	5.9	25.5%	13.0%	12.5%	3.8%	4.88	5.04	+0.5
2038	34	MLB	TOR	16	16	98	414	103	56	17	100%	6.1	24.9%	13.5%	11.5%	4.1%	5.14	5.31	+0.1
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			259	259	1537	6489	1743	768	190	100%	5.9	26.9%	11.8%	15.0%	2.9%	4.29	3.94	+26.2
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	844	227	100	25	100%	5.9	26.9%	11.8%	15.0%	2.9%	4.29	3.94	+3.4
Career	—			73	56	281	1225	278	191	28	77%	3.8	22.7%	15.6%	7.1%	2.3%	4.52	4.40	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—			52	40	200	873	198	136	20	77%	3.8	22.7%	15.6%	7.1%	2.3%	4.52	4.40	+2.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gage Stanifer (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.46	26.9%	15.0%	2.5%	—	4.05	27.4%	15.4%	459	-0.41	—	—	—
Trace Bright R 2026 · 4.39 FIP	22	SP-	4.39	26.3%	14.7%	3.0%	.297	4.58	19.5%	4.9%	274	+0.19	4.22	373	95
Brandon Young R 2026 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.5%	12.3%	2.7%	.297	3.46	22.4%	14.1%	150	-0.61	3.11	420	85
Cade Smith R 2026 · 3.88 FIP	22	SP	3.88	23.2%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	5.75	18.7%	6.9%	107	+1.87	3.88	192	85
Jackson Baumeister R 2026 · 3.31 FIP	22	SP	3.31	25.2%	13.4%	1.2%	.270	5.38	19.7%	8.1%	127	+2.07	3.31	226	85
George Klassen R 2026 · 3.57 FIP	22	SP	3.57	27.0%	13.6%	1.9%	.299	4.12	20.3%	8.0%	175	+0.55	3.57	268	83
Austin Hansen R 2026 · 3.84 FIP	22	SP-	3.84	25.1%	15.0%	1.7%	.230	8.02	19.8%	-0.3%	26	+4.18	3.84	204	83
Will Watson R 2026 · 4.19 FIP	22	SP-	4.19	21.8%	13.4%	2.2%	.275	5.43	15.2%	2.1%	20	+1.24	4.19	141	81
Spencer Arrighetti R 2026 · 3.98 FIP	22	SP-	3.98	24.9%	13.2%	2.4%	.357	4.06	24.5%	13.2%	305	+0.08	3.84	508	81
Jimmy Endersby R 2027 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP-	4.20	20.9%	14.1%	2.0%	.310	6.03	16.4%	3.7%	225	+1.83	2.73	357	81
Kyle Bradish R 2026 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	20.8%	13.7%	2.9%	.309	3.76	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.91	2.15	702	81
Winyer Chourio R 2026 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP	4.50	23.5%	16.3%	2.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	4.30	156	80
Michael Knorr R 2027 · 4.03 FIP	23	SP-	4.03	23.6%	11.1%	2.8%	.312	5.16	22.3%	9.9%	93	+1.13	4.03	152	80
Brandon Bailey R 2026 · 3.37 FIP	22	SP-	3.37	24.6%	9.9%	2.0%	.290	4.39	21.2%	9.6%	215	+1.02	3.37	306	80
Patrick Reilly R 2026 · 4.75 FIP	22	SP	4.75	23.2%	13.6%	3.4%	.242	—	—	—	—	—	4.75	119	80
Noah Denoyer R 2027 · 4.45 FIP	23	SP-	4.45	21.5%	12.1%	3.0%	.275	4.09	25.9%	14.9%	121	-0.36	3.05	181	79
Karson Milbrandt R 2026 · 3.67 FIP	22	SP	3.67	25.6%	14.4%	1.7%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	340	79
Aidan Foeller R 2027 · 4.74 FIP	23	SP	4.74	22.7%	19.1%	2.1%	.309	4.45	23.4%	12.8%	50	-0.29	4.45	149	79
Jacob Odle R 2026 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP	4.96	25.2%	17.0%	3.3%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	4.44	104	79
Zach Peek R 2027 · 3.57 FIP	23	SP-	3.57	22.8%	10.1%	2.0%	.339	3.40	17.5%	9.8%	45	-0.17	3.40	233	78
Nolan DeVos R 2026 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP-	4.07	21.1%	14.0%	1.8%	.302	6.16	17.9%	6.0%	73	+2.09	4.07	172	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	13	144	26.9%	12.0%	1.11	4.29
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Rich Hill ('23)	9	104	25.0%	8.0%	1.12	3.65
Kyle Gibson ('24)	10	164	19.6%	8.3%	1.14	4.46
Trevor Bauer ('21)	7	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Vince Velasquez ('23)	9	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88