Gage Stanifer — OGILVIE

Gage Stanifer P New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 208 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.9 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION99 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.56

FIP4.56

K%26.9%

BB%15.9%

K-BB%11.0%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 107 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$20M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5555

CTRL4045

CMD3545

K†6065

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$8M	+$7M
2029	Arb-1	$6M	+1.6	$10M	+$6M
2030	Arb-2	$10M	+1.7	$10M	+$3M
2031	Arb-3	$15M	+1.7	$9M	+$0.5M
Totals		$33M		$39M	+$17M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	11	7	43	193	47	23	3	64%	3.9	16.6%	14.9%	1.7%	2.2%	6.33	4.78	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	11	7	43	193	47	23	3	64%	3.9	16.6%	14.9%	1.7%	2.2%	6.33	4.78	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	FCL Blue Jays	11	7	43	193	47	23	3	64%	3.9	24.4%	11.9%	12.4%	1.6%	6.33	3.43	—
2024	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	19	17	60	276	64	50	5	89%	3.1	17.2%	21.4%	-4.2%	2.3%	6.34	5.65	—
2024	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	19	17	60	276	64	50	5	89%	3.1	17.2%	21.4%	-4.2%	2.3%	6.34	5.65	—
2024	20	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	19	17	60	276	64	50	5	89%	3.1	23.2%	18.1%	5.1%	1.8%	6.34	4.56	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	16	110	453	161	58	4	59%	4.1	27.9%	13.6%	14.3%	0.7%	2.86	2.85	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	16	110	453	161	58	4	59%	4.1	27.9%	13.6%	14.3%	0.7%	2.86	2.85	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	16	110	453	161	58	4	59%	4.1	35.5%	12.8%	22.7%	0.9%	2.86	2.23	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	29	19	99	448	136	64	14	66%	3.4	24.5%	15.8%	8.7%	3.8%	4.82	5.12	—
YTD	22	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	29	19	99	448	136	64	14	66%	3.4	24.5%	15.8%	8.7%	3.8%	4.82	5.12	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	AA RAW	TOR	28	19	97	440	133	63	14	68%	3.5	30.2%	14.3%	15.9%	3.2%	4.82	4.11	—
2026	22	AAA RAW	TOR	1	0	2	8	3	1	0	0%	2.0	37.5%	12.5%	25.0%	0.0%	4.50	1.52	—
ROS	22	MLB MLE	TOR	1	1	8	32	9	5	1	100%	7.6	26.9%	15.9%	11.0%	2.4%	4.56	4.56	+0.0
2026 TOT	22	MLB MLE	TOR	—	—	107	480	145	69	15	—	—	30.1%	14.4%	15.7%	3.1%	4.80	5.08	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	TOR	25	25	137	577	157	79	14	100%	5.5	27.2%	13.8%	13.4%	2.5%	4.37	4.27	+1.0
2028	24	MLB MLE	TOR	30	30	166	701	192	87	17	100%	5.5	27.4%	12.4%	15.0%	2.5%	4.20	4.09	+1.6
2029	25	MLB MLE	TOR	30	30	175	739	203	85	18	100%	5.8	27.5%	11.5%	15.9%	2.5%	4.07	3.98	+1.9
2030	26	MLB MLE	TOR	29	29	175	739	204	84	18	100%	6.0	27.6%	11.4%	16.2%	2.5%	4.01	3.96	+2.0
2031	27	MLB MLE	TOR	29	29	172	728	200	84	18	100%	5.9	27.5%	11.5%	16.1%	2.5%	4.00	4.00	+1.8
2032	28	MLB MLE	TOR	28	28	167	706	194	82	19	100%	6.0	27.4%	11.6%	15.8%	2.6%	4.05	4.08	+1.6
2033	29	MLB MLE	TOR	27	27	160	674	183	80	19	100%	5.9	27.2%	11.9%	15.3%	2.8%	4.15	4.22	+1.3
2034	30	MLB MLE	TOR	25	25	150	634	170	77	19	100%	6.0	26.8%	12.2%	14.7%	3.0%	4.30	4.39	+0.9
2035	31	MLB MLE	TOR	23	23	140	591	156	74	19	100%	6.1	26.4%	12.5%	13.9%	3.2%	4.48	4.60	+0.5
2036	32	MLB MLE	TOR	22	22	130	547	142	71	19	100%	5.9	26.0%	12.9%	13.1%	3.5%	4.68	4.82	+0.1
2037	33	MLB MLE	TOR	20	20	119	502	128	67	19	100%	5.9	25.5%	13.4%	12.1%	3.7%	4.91	5.07	-0.2
2027	23	MLB CTX	TOR	13	13	69	291	79	40	7	100%	5.3	27.2%	13.8%	13.4%	2.5%	4.37	4.27	+0.5
2028	24	MLB CTX	TOR	21	21	117	494	135	61	12	100%	5.6	27.4%	12.4%	15.0%	2.5%	4.20	4.09	+1.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	TOR	24	24	142	600	165	69	15	100%	5.9	27.5%	11.5%	15.9%	2.5%	4.07	3.98	+1.6
2030	26	MLB CTX	TOR	26	26	153	646	178	74	16	100%	5.9	27.6%	11.4%	16.2%	2.5%	4.01	3.96	+1.7
2031	27	MLB CTX	TOR	26	26	156	659	181	76	17	100%	6.0	27.5%	11.5%	16.1%	2.5%	4.00	4.00	+1.7
2032	28	MLB CTX	TOR	26	26	154	650	178	76	17	100%	5.9	27.4%	11.6%	15.8%	2.6%	4.05	4.08	+1.5
2033	29	MLB CTX	TOR	25	25	149	629	171	75	18	100%	6.0	27.2%	11.9%	15.3%	2.8%	4.15	4.22	+1.2
2034	30	MLB CTX	TOR	24	24	141	595	160	72	18	100%	5.9	26.8%	12.2%	14.7%	3.0%	4.30	4.39	+0.8
2035	31	MLB CTX	TOR	22	22	133	562	148	70	18	100%	6.0	26.4%	12.5%	13.9%	3.2%	4.48	4.60	+0.5
2036	32	MLB CTX	TOR	20	20	123	519	135	67	18	100%	6.2	26.0%	12.9%	13.1%	3.5%	4.68	4.82	+0.1
2037	33	MLB CTX	TOR	19	19	113	477	122	64	18	100%	5.9	25.5%	13.4%	12.1%	3.7%	4.91	5.07	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		245	245	1449	6119	1651	743	173	100%	5.9	27.0%	12.1%	14.8%	2.8%	4.26	3.91	+17.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	228	103	24	100%	5.9	27.0%	12.1%	14.8%	2.8%	4.26	3.91	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		86	59	311	1370	315	220	31	69%	3.6	23.0%	16.0%	7.0%	2.3%	4.63	4.43	+12.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	38	200	880	203	141	20	69%	3.6	23.0%	16.0%	7.0%	2.3%	4.63	4.43	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gage Stanifer (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.56	26.9%	15.9%	2.4%	—	4.10	27.4%	14.9%	478	-0.46	—	—	—
Trace Bright R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	22	SP-	4.26	26.3%	14.7%	2.8%	.297	4.83	19.2%	5.8%	313	+0.57	4.26	413	89
Austin Hansen R 2019 · 3.81 FIP	22	SP-	3.81	25.1%	15.0%	1.7%	.230	7.74	19.8%	-0.3%	26	+3.93	3.81	204	86
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	82
Spencer Arrighetti R 2022 · 3.97 FIP	22	SP-	3.97	24.9%	13.2%	2.4%	.357	4.10	24.3%	13.3%	305	+0.13	3.92	538	82
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	82
Jimmy Endersby R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP-	4.29	20.9%	14.1%	2.1%	.310	5.73	16.1%	4.0%	225	+1.44	2.86	357	80
Brandon Young R 2021 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP	4.13	24.5%	12.3%	2.8%	.297	3.52	21.7%	14.1%	150	-0.61	3.08	476	79
Zach Messinger R 2022 · 3.99 FIP	22	SP-	3.99	23.0%	14.7%	1.8%	.317	4.30	18.5%	7.5%	314	+0.31	3.70	466	79
R.J. Freure R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	22	SP-	5.13	21.7%	18.5%	2.8%	.286	6.05	21.4%	4.2%	107	+0.92	5.13	196	79
Kyle Bradish R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.84	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.72	2.20	750	78
Gabriel Encinas R 2015 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	20.9%	17.0%	1.4%	.291	5.46	17.3%	-10.3%	47	+1.20	2.92	145	78
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	78
Brandon Bailey R 2017 · 3.54 FIP	22	SP-	3.54	24.6%	9.9%	2.3%	.290	4.44	21.2%	9.6%	215	+0.90	3.54	306	78
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	77
Zach Peek R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	22.8%	10.1%	2.1%	.339	3.51	17.5%	9.8%	45	-0.11	3.51	256	76
Andrew Taylor R 2023 · 5.02 FIP	21	SP-	5.02	25.0%	13.6%	4.2%	.391	5.04	18.2%	6.3%	111	+0.02	4.74	195	76
James Proctor R 2021 · 3.99 FIP	23	SP	3.99	22.0%	15.2%	1.5%	.277	4.39	14.0%	1.5%	48	+0.40	3.99	109	76
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	75
Cody Deason R 2019 · 3.40 FIP	22	SP-	3.40	21.0%	12.3%	0.9%	.280	4.38	16.1%	2.2%	78	+0.98	3.40	178	75
Hector Perez R 2018 · 4.06 FIP	22	SP-	4.06	21.8%	15.1%	1.6%	.264	4.77	18.1%	1.5%	159	+0.71	3.46	564	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8.9	148	27.0%	12.4%	1.07	4.27
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Carlos Martinez ('21)	4.2	121	22.7%	9.1%	0.81	3.67
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88