Gage Stanifer
P
New Hampshire Fisher Cats
+1.1
WAR
Age 22
RHP
6'3" / 208 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 2.7 · 2030
ERA4.29
FIP4.29
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%24.5%
BB%12.2%
K-BB%12.3%
IP102
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.7peak
2030
K†6060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | FCL Blue Jays | 11 | 7 | 43 | 193 | 47 | 23 | 3 | 16.6% | 14.9% | 2.2% | 6.33 | 4.77 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 19 | 17 | 60 | 276 | 64 | 50 | 5 | 17.2% | 21.4% | 2.3% | 6.34 | 5.65 | -0.5 |
| 2025 | 21 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 27 | 16 | 110 | 453 | 161 | 58 | 4 | 27.9% | 13.6% | 0.7% | 2.86 | 2.85 | +3.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 3 | 3 | 11 | 48 | 17 | 7 | 2 | — | — | — | 10.12 | — | — |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | TOR | 19 | 19 | 102 | 431 | 106 | 52 | 11 | 24.5% | 12.2% | 2.4% | 4.29 | 4.29 | +1.2 |
| 2026 Total | 22 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 113 | 479 | 123 | 59 | 13 | 25.6% | 12.4% | 2.6% | 4.84 | 3.88 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | TOR | 23 | 23 | 126 | 531 | 133 | 58 | 13 | 25.0% | 10.8% | 2.5% | 4.17 | 4.09 | +1.7 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | TOR | 26 | 26 | 145 | 612 | 155 | 61 | 15 | 25.3% | 10.0% | 2.5% | 4.05 | 3.96 | +2.2 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | TOR | 29 | 29 | 159 | 670 | 171 | 64 | 17 | 25.5% | 9.5% | 2.5% | 3.96 | 3.89 | +2.5 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 30 | 30 | 166 | 700 | 179 | 66 | 17 | 25.6% | 9.4% | 2.5% | 3.91 | 3.87 | +2.7 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 31 | 31 | 168 | 711 | 183 | 67 | 18 | 25.7% | 9.4% | 2.5% | 3.89 | 3.88 | +2.7 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 31 | 31 | 168 | 709 | 182 | 67 | 18 | 25.6% | 9.5% | 2.5% | 3.90 | 3.91 | +2.6 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 30 | 30 | 164 | 693 | 177 | 66 | 18 | 25.5% | 9.6% | 2.6% | 3.93 | 3.96 | +2.5 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | TOR | 29 | 29 | 159 | 673 | 170 | 65 | 18 | 25.3% | 9.7% | 2.6% | 3.98 | 4.02 | +2.3 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | TOR | 28 | 28 | 154 | 649 | 163 | 64 | 18 | 25.1% | 9.8% | 2.7% | 4.05 | 4.09 | +2.1 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | TOR | 27 | 27 | 148 | 623 | 154 | 62 | 17 | 24.8% | 10.0% | 2.8% | 4.13 | 4.18 | +1.9 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | TOR | 26 | 26 | 141 | 595 | 146 | 60 | 17 | 24.5% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 4.28 | +1.6 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 24 | 24 | 134 | 565 | 136 | 58 | 17 | 24.1% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 4.39 | +1.4 |
| 2039 | 35 | MLB | TOR | 23 | 23 | 126 | 533 | 126 | 56 | 16 | 23.7% | 10.6% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.51 | +1.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 60 | 43 | 223 | 970 | 223 | 156 | 16 | 23.0% | 16.1% | 1.6% | 4.80 | 4.10 | +3.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 39 | 200 | 870 | 200 | 140 | 14 | 23.0% | 16.1% | 1.6% | 4.80 | 4.10 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Gage Stanifer (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.29 | 24.5% | 12.2% | 2.4% | — | 3.97 | 25.3% | 15.2% | 429 | -0.32 | — | — | — |
| Trace Bright R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.24 | 26.3% | 14.7% | 2.7% | .297 | 4.47 | 19.0% | 3.7% | 211 | +0.23 | 4.24 | 311 | 94 |
| Daniel Eagen R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.14 | 25.1% | 12.6% | 2.9% | .263 | 7.80 | 20.3% | 9.7% | 12 | +3.66 | 4.14 | 129 | 92 |
| George Klassen R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.50 | 27.0% | 13.6% | 1.7% | .299 | 3.73 | 22.2% | 11.2% | 103 | +0.23 | 3.50 | 196 | 92 |
| Cade Smith R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.86 | 23.2% | 13.3% | 1.9% | .273 | 4.20 | 20.3% | 6.5% | 33 | +0.34 | 3.86 | 118 | 91 |
| Brandon Young R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.11 | 24.5% | 12.3% | 2.8% | .297 | 3.57 | 22.4% | 14.1% | 150 | -0.54 | 3.13 | 319 | 90 |
| Jackson Baumeister R 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.32 | 25.2% | 13.4% | 1.2% | .270 | 4.75 | 15.8% | 5.3% | 62 | +1.43 | 3.32 | 162 | 90 |
| Jackson Nezuh R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.90 | 22.5% | 11.2% | 2.3% | .290 | 4.40 | 18.6% | 9.7% | 72 | +0.50 | 3.90 | 193 | 89 |
| Tyler Guilfoil R 2027 · 3.17 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.17 | 26.0% | 12.3% | 1.3% | .305 | 5.51 | 17.8% | 4.4% | 190 | +2.34 | 3.17 | 274 | 88 |
| Zach Messinger R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.99 | 23.0% | 14.7% | 1.8% | .317 | 4.34 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 314 | +0.35 | 3.71 | 397 | 88 |
| Will Watson R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.13 | 21.8% | 13.4% | 2.1% | .275 | 4.39 | 15.6% | 5.0% | 11 | +0.26 | 4.13 | 132 | 87 |
| Corey Black R 2027 · 4.18 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.18 | 22.1% | 13.9% | 2.1% | .310 | 3.55 | 22.1% | 6.0% | 53 | -0.63 | 3.55 | 139 | 87 |
| Austin Hansen R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.81 | 25.1% | 15.0% | 1.7% | .230 | 7.80 | 19.8% | -0.3% | 26 | +3.99 | 3.81 | 204 | 87 |
| Spencer Arrighetti R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.98 | 24.9% | 13.2% | 2.4% | .357 | 4.09 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 305 | +0.11 | 1.85 | 426 | 87 |
| Brandon Bailey R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.52 | 24.6% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .290 | 4.44 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 215 | +0.92 | 3.52 | 306 | 87 |
| Luke Russo R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.72 | 21.7% | 11.1% | 1.9% | .326 | 3.92 | 21.5% | 10.2% | 38 | +0.20 | 3.72 | 139 | 86 |
| Trey Gibson R 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.24 | 22.7% | 11.7% | 1.1% | .310 | 3.69 | 25.2% | 15.6% | 137 | +0.45 | 3.24 | 229 | 86 |
| Nolan DeVos R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.17 | 21.1% | 14.0% | 2.0% | .302 | 5.82 | 12.3% | -1.5% | 12 | +1.65 | 4.17 | 110 | 86 |
| Roman Angelo R 2028 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.02 | 22.6% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .291 | 5.45 | 17.7% | 4.3% | 141 | +1.43 | 4.02 | 262 | 86 |
| Trevor Martin R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.24 | 21.3% | 10.6% | 2.9% | .297 | 4.28 | 20.2% | 11.6% | 172 | +0.04 | 4.19 | 282 | 86 |
| CJ Van Eyk R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.83 | 21.8% | 12.7% | 3.6% | .302 | 4.62 | 15.2% | 5.3% | 127 | -0.21 | 2.74 | 347 | 85 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +2.2 | $19M | +$18M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +2.5 | $22M | +$21M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +2.7 | $24M | +$23M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $5M | +2.7 | $25M | +$20M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $8M | +2.6 | $25M | +$16M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $12M | +2.5 | $25M | +$13M |
| Totals | $28M | $139M | +$111M | ||