Gage Stanifer

P New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 208 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.9 · 2029

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP40OGV rank#213ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	ATOR	19	17	60	6.34	4.56	23.2%	18.1%	—	K 17.2% · BB 21.4% · FIP 5.65
2025	21	MIX3 levels	27	16	110	2.86	2.23	35.5%	12.8%	—	K 27.9% · BB 13.6% · FIP 2.85
2026	22	MIX2 levels	31	19	101	4.83	4.06	30.7%	14.3%	—	K 24.5% · BB 15.8% · FIP 5.12
2027PROJ	23	MLBTOR	1	1	2	4.97	4.97	26.4%	16.2%	0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	24	MLBTOR	8	8	46	4.77	4.68	26.5%	14.1%	0.4
2029PROJ67% MLB	25	MLBTOR	13	13	74	4.60	4.50	26.6%	12.8%	0.8

Next 3 projected WAR 1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$2M2033Arb-2$3M2034Arb-3$2M

Career WAR0.2 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 15, comp-based) · star 6% · didn't stick 71%

CompsAustin Hansen (age 22) · Dean Deetz (age 23) · Nolan DeVos (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128119vR 111

ERA4.97

FIP4.97

K%26.4%

BB%16.2%

K-BB%10.2%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$33M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$6M	+$6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$6M	+$5M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.9	$2M	+$1M
2033	Arb-2	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.3M
2034	Arb-3	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$20M	+$15M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	11	7	43	193	47	23	3	64%	3.9	16.6%	14.9%	1.7%	2.2%	6.33	4.78	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	FCL Blue Jays	11	7	43	193	47	23	3	64%	3.9	24.4%	11.9%	12.4%	1.6%	6.33	3.43	—
2024	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	19	17	60	276	64	50	5	89%	3.1	17.2%	21.4%	-4.2%	2.3%	6.34	5.65	—
2024	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	19	17	60	276	64	50	5	89%	3.1	17.2%	21.4%	-4.2%	2.3%	6.34	5.65	—
2024	20	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	19	17	60	276	64	50	5	89%	3.1	23.2%	18.1%	5.1%	1.8%	6.34	4.56	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	16	110	453	161	58	4	59%	4.1	27.9%	13.6%	14.3%	0.7%	2.86	2.85	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	16	110	453	161	58	4	59%	4.1	27.9%	13.6%	14.3%	0.7%	2.86	2.85	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	16	110	453	161	58	4	59%	4.1	35.5%	12.8%	22.7%	0.9%	2.86	2.23	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	19	101	456	140	65	14	61%	3.2	24.5%	15.8%	8.7%	3.8%	4.83	5.12	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	19	101	456	140	65	14	61%	3.2	24.5%	15.8%	8.7%	3.8%	4.83	5.12	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	19	101	456	140	65	14	61%	3.2	30.7%	14.3%	16.4%	3.1%	4.83	4.06	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	TOR	1	1	2	8	2	1	0	100%	2.0	26.4%	16.2%	10.2%	3.0%	4.97	4.97	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	TOR	19	19	105	443	117	62	13	100%	5.5	26.5%	14.1%	12.4%	3.0%	4.77	4.68	+0.9
2029	25	MLB MLE	TOR	19	19	110	467	124	60	14	100%	5.8	26.6%	12.8%	13.8%	3.0%	4.60	4.50	+1.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	TOR	19	19	116	490	130	61	15	100%	6.1	26.6%	12.5%	14.0%	3.0%	4.52	4.47	+1.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	TOR	19	19	113	475	126	59	14	100%	5.9	26.4%	12.5%	14.0%	3.0%	4.50	4.50	+1.2
2032	28	MLB MLE	TOR	18	18	107	453	119	57	14	100%	6.0	26.3%	12.6%	13.7%	3.1%	4.55	4.58	+1.0
2033	29	MLB MLE	TOR	17	17	100	422	110	54	14	100%	5.9	26.1%	12.8%	13.2%	3.3%	4.65	4.71	+0.8
2034	30	MLB MLE	TOR	15	15	91	383	99	50	13	100%	6.1	25.7%	13.1%	12.6%	3.5%	4.79	4.89	+0.5
2035	31	MLB MLE	TOR	14	14	81	342	87	46	13	100%	5.8	25.3%	13.5%	11.8%	3.7%	4.97	5.09	+0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	TOR	8	8	46	194	52	27	6	100%	5.8	26.5%	14.1%	12.4%	3.0%	4.77	4.68	+0.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	TOR	13	13	74	312	83	40	9	100%	5.7	26.6%	12.8%	13.8%	3.0%	4.60	4.50	+0.8
2030	26	MLB CTX	TOR	15	15	92	388	103	49	12	100%	6.1	26.6%	12.5%	14.0%	3.0%	4.52	4.47	+1.0
2031	27	MLB CTX	TOR	16	16	96	405	107	51	12	100%	6.0	26.4%	12.5%	14.0%	3.0%	4.50	4.50	+1.0
2032	28	MLB CTX	TOR	16	16	96	405	107	51	13	100%	6.0	26.3%	12.6%	13.7%	3.1%	4.55	4.58	+0.9
2033	29	MLB CTX	TOR	15	15	91	384	100	49	13	100%	6.1	26.1%	12.8%	13.2%	3.3%	4.65	4.71	+0.7
2034	30	MLB CTX	TOR	14	14	84	355	91	47	12	100%	6.0	25.7%	13.1%	12.6%	3.5%	4.79	4.89	+0.5
2035	31	MLB CTX	TOR	13	13	76	321	81	43	12	100%	5.8	25.3%	13.5%	11.8%	3.7%	4.97	5.09	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		110	110	654	2762	723	356	89	100%	5.9	26.2%	12.9%	13.3%	3.2%	4.65	4.29	+8.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	221	109	27	100%	6.0	26.2%	12.9%	13.3%	3.2%	4.65	4.29	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		88	59	313	1378	317	221	31	67%	3.6	23.0%	16.0%	7.0%	2.3%	4.63	4.43	+7.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	38	200	881	203	141	20	67%	3.6	23.0%	16.0%	7.0%	2.3%	4.63	4.43	+1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 97 IPFIP 4.11 → 5.12 (+1.02)K% 30.2% → 24.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.23%	—	×0.810	24.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.32%	—	×1.100	15.75%
HR / BF /BF	3.18%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.82%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.11 → 5.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Vancouver Canadians · 76 IPFIP 1.85 → 2.95 (+1.09)K% 36.5% → 28.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.51%	—	×0.770	28.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.75%	—	×1.150	13.51%
HR / BF /BF	0.63%	÷0.855	×1.250	0.93%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 71).

Result: FIP 1.85 → 2.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ADunedin Blue Jays · 26 IPFIP 1.46 → 2.54 (+1.08)K% 36.9% → 27.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.89%	—	×0.740	27.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.65%	—	×1.180	13.75%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.284	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 157).

Result: FIP 1.46 → 2.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 8 IPFIP 7.56 → 9.37 (+1.81)K% 22.9% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.86%	—	×0.810	18.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	25.71%	—	×1.100	28.29%
HR / BF /BF	5.71%	÷0.885	×1.200	7.75%

Result: FIP 7.56 → 9.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ADunedin Blue Jays · 60 IPFIP 4.43 → 5.65 (+1.22)K% 23.2% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.19%	—	×0.740	17.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.12%	—	×1.180	21.38%
HR / BF /BF	1.81%	÷1.003	×1.300	2.35%

Result: FIP 4.43 → 5.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Blue Jays · 43 IPFIP 3.41 → 4.78 (+1.37)K% 24.4% → 16.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.35%	—	×0.680	16.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.92%	—	×1.250	14.90%
HR / BF /BF	1.55%	÷1.005	×1.400	2.17%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 3.41 → 4.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gage Stanifer (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.55	26.5%	13.4%	332	-0.42	—	—	—
Austin Hansen R 2019 · 3.81 FIP	22	SP-	3.81	25.1%	15.0%	1.7%	.230	7.74	19.8%	-0.3%	26	+3.93	3.81	204	83
Dean Deetz R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP-	4.32	22.2%	13.7%	2.5%	.298	4.73	29.1%	10.7%	68	+0.41	2.61	281	82
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	81
Jimmy Endersby R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP-	4.29	20.9%	14.1%	2.1%	.310	5.71	16.3%	4.2%	225	+1.42	2.86	357	81
Ryan Cardona R 2023 · 3.85 FIP	23	SP-	3.85	22.8%	16.5%	1.1%	.262	4.44	16.8%	3.5%	211	+0.59	3.62	367	80
R.J. Freure R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	22	SP-	5.13	21.7%	18.5%	2.8%	.286	6.05	21.4%	4.2%	107	+0.92	5.13	196	79
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	79
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	78
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.15	22.0%	9.5%	123	+0.85	4.30	181	78
Kyle Bradish R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.84	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.72	2.20	750	78
Gabriel Encinas R 2015 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	20.9%	17.0%	1.4%	.291	5.46	17.3%	-10.3%	47	+1.20	2.92	145	78
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	77
Ben Casparius R 2022 · 5.29 FIP	23	SP-	5.29	20.6%	13.2%	4.1%	.306	4.37	21.6%	11.0%	274	-0.92	3.36	374	77
Adrian Chaidez R 2022 · 5.75 FIP	23	SP-	5.75	20.1%	15.0%	4.5%	.281	4.96	19.4%	3.1%	45	-0.79	4.96	144	76
Michael Forret R 2024 · 4.00 FIP	20	SP-	4.00	21.8%	11.8%	2.3%	.302	3.45	22.8%	12.9%	190	-0.55	2.65	289	76
Matt Ruppenthal R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.32	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.18	3.74	283	75
Chase Silseth R 2023 · 3.77 FIP	23	SP-	3.77	24.1%	10.8%	2.4%	.264	4.11	21.9%	9.9%	127	+0.34	3.23	337	75
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	75
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	75
James Proctor R 2021 · 3.99 FIP	23	SP	3.99	22.0%	15.2%	1.5%	.277	4.39	14.0%	1.5%	48	+0.40	3.99	109	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.6	101	26.2%	13.3%	1.23	4.68
Les Cain ('68-'72, 2 WAR*)	1.9	93	24.6%*	12.9%*	1.00*	4.66*
Scipio Spinks ('69-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.0	67	23.7%*	12.2%*	1.04*	4.52*
Ken Kravec ('75-'82, 5 WAR*)	4.3	123	23.6%*	10.7%*	1.11*	4.73*
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Daisuke Matsuzaka ('14)	4.0	99	20.9%	11.2%	0.97	4.45
Rick Ankiel ('04)	1.2	81	25.9%	12.5%	1.19	3.90