Austin Hansen
P
Sugar Land Space Cowboys
+0.3
WAR
Age 29
RHP
6'0" / 204 lbs
AAA
peak 0.5 · 2027
ERA4.80
FIP4.80
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.2%
BB%11.1%
K-BB%11.2%
IP82
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2027
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 23 | 14 | 94 | 387 | 128 | 50 | 5 | 25.1% | 15.0% | 1.7% | 2.11 | 3.81 | +1.5 |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA | Sugar Land Skeeters | 9 | 6 | 26 | 120 | 27 | 23 | 7 | 19.8% | 20.1% | 7.0% | 7.36 | 7.80 | -0.8 |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 35 | 6 | 84 | 403 | 85 | 64 | 18 | 18.6% | 16.7% | 5.3% | 6.86 | 6.56 | -1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 15 | 15 | 82 | 347 | 77 | 39 | 11 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 3.3% | 4.80 | 4.80 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 15 | 15 | 80 | 337 | 81 | 34 | 11 | 24.0% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 4.62 | 4.54 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 14 | 14 | 77 | 325 | 77 | 33 | 11 | 23.7% | 10.1% | 3.4% | 4.60 | 4.60 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 13 | 13 | 74 | 312 | 73 | 32 | 11 | 23.4% | 10.2% | 3.4% | 4.63 | 4.67 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 13 | 13 | 71 | 298 | 69 | 31 | 10 | 23.1% | 10.4% | 3.5% | 4.70 | 4.76 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 12 | 12 | 67 | 283 | 65 | 30 | 10 | 22.8% | 10.6% | 3.6% | 4.80 | 4.87 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 11 | 63 | 267 | 60 | 29 | 10 | 22.4% | 10.8% | 3.7% | 4.91 | 4.99 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | HOU | 59 | — | 59 | 250 | 55 | 28 | 10 | 22.0% | 11.0% | 3.8% | 5.04 | 5.12 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 67 | 26 | 204 | 910 | 196 | 149 | 36 | 21.5% | 16.4% | 4.0% | 4.73 | 5.55 | -0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 66 | 26 | 200 | 894 | 192 | 146 | 35 | 21.5% | 16.4% | 4.0% | 4.73 | 5.55 | -0.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Austin Hansen (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.80 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 3.3% | — | 4.60 | 23.7% | 13.6% | 231 | -0.20 | — | — | — |
| Bud Norris R 2027 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.64 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | .327 | 3.81 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 316 | 85 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2025 · 3.98 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.98 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 84 |
| Hector Noesí R 2025 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 83 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.01 | 22.8% | 11.5% | 4.3% | .321 | 4.38 | 21.3% | 11.7% | 251 | -0.63 | 3.40 | 556 | 81 |
| Mitch Atkins R 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.70 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .341 | 4.75 | 14.3% | 6.2% | 78 | +1.05 | 3.70 | 205 | 80 |
| Jose Pina R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.86 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 3.7% | .231 | 3.67 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.19 | 3.65 | 424 | 79 |
| Jose Samayoa R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.08 | 19.4% | 7.0% | 3.1% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 262 | 77 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2028 · 4.52 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.52 | 15.8% | 11.8% | 2.3% | .312 | 4.86 | 15.0% | 4.8% | 26 | +0.34 | 4.52 | 150 | 77 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2029 · 4.56 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 3.4% | .316 | 4.46 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.10 | 4.46 | 143 | 76 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2025 · 4.94 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.94 | 20.6% | 12.8% | 3.6% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 328 | 75 |
| Jonathan Pintaro R 2024 · 4.21 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.21 | 24.4% | 13.2% | 2.7% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 152 | 75 |
| Mike Wright Jr. R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.77 | 19.9% | 7.2% | 2.6% | .347 | 4.21 | 17.6% | 7.3% | 169 | +0.44 | 3.77 | 725 | 75 |
| Tim Adleman R 2026 · 5.33 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.33 | 20.3% | 9.4% | 5.0% | .276 | 4.33 | 22.8% | 15.0% | 117 | -1.00 | 3.64 | 605 | 74 |
| Matt Cain R 2027 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.87 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 5.04 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | +0.17 | 4.87 | 294 | 74 |
| Kris Medlen R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.76 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 3.9% | .261 | 5.17 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.41 | 4.58 | 261 | 73 |
| Mike Bolsinger R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.28 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 327 | 73 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2027 · 4.13 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.13 | 15.7% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 248 | 73 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.00 | 15.3% | 8.5% | 2.0% | .316 | 3.75 | 17.1% | 8.5% | 348 | -0.25 | 3.14 | 593 | 73 |
| Josh Zeid R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.00 | 15.4% | 11.7% | 3.1% | .278 | 5.36 | 18.3% | 7.5% | 102 | +0.36 | 4.13 | 265 | 73 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.92 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 1.9% | .285 | 3.84 | 18.0% | 11.4% | 179 | -0.08 | 3.45 | 315 | 73 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.