Ryan Cardona
P
Chattanooga Lookouts
+0.0
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'1" / 213 lbs
AA
peak 0.5 · 2028
ERA4.99
FIP4.99
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%17.7%
BB%12.5%
K-BB%5.1%
IP103
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2028
STUF3030
CTRL3535
CMD2525
K†3040
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 7 | 4 | 13 | 57 | 10 | 5 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.46 | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 25 | 7 | 75 | 326 | 92 | 49 | 6 | 20.9% | 17.7% | 2.9% | 3.36 | 5.19 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 24 | 16 | 90 | 385 | 114 | 50 | 4 | 22.8% | 16.5% | 1.1% | 3.49 | 3.84 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 22 | 19 | 104 | 426 | 120 | 43 | 7 | 21.7% | 11.6% | 1.5% | 3.29 | 3.54 | +2.1 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 26 | 23 | 112 | 482 | 71 | 64 | 11 | 12.0% | 14.9% | 2.3% | 4.76 | 5.24 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 19 | 19 | 103 | 436 | 67 | 67 | 11 | 15.3% | 15.3% | 2.6% | 5.55 | 5.55 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 19 | 19 | 106 | 450 | 72 | 65 | 12 | 16.0% | 14.5% | 2.6% | 5.42 | 5.42 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 19 | 19 | 107 | 451 | 74 | 64 | 12 | 16.4% | 14.1% | 2.7% | 5.35 | 5.36 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 19 | 19 | 104 | 441 | 73 | 61 | 12 | 16.5% | 13.9% | 2.8% | 5.33 | 5.35 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 18 | 18 | 101 | 428 | 71 | 59 | 12 | 16.5% | 13.8% | 2.8% | 5.35 | 5.39 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 18 | 18 | 98 | 413 | 67 | 58 | 12 | 16.2% | 13.9% | 2.9% | 5.42 | 5.46 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 17 | 17 | 94 | 397 | 63 | 56 | 12 | 16.0% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 5.50 | 5.55 | -0.3 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 16 | 16 | 90 | 379 | 59 | 54 | 12 | 15.7% | 14.3% | 3.1% | 5.59 | 5.65 | -0.4 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | CIN | 16 | 16 | 85 | 360 | 55 | 52 | 11 | 15.3% | 14.5% | 3.2% | 5.69 | 5.76 | -0.6 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | CIN | 15 | 15 | 80 | 339 | 51 | 50 | 11 | 14.9% | 14.7% | 3.3% | 5.80 | 5.88 | -0.7 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | CIN | 14 | 14 | 75 | 318 | 52 | 45 | 11 | 16.5% | 14.1% | 3.4% | 5.77 | 5.74 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 104 | 69 | 394 | 1676 | 316 | 247 | 32 | 18.9% | 14.8% | 1.9% | 3.77 | 4.43 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 35 | 200 | 851 | 160 | 125 | 16 | 18.9% | 14.8% | 1.9% | 3.77 | 4.43 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Cardona (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.55 | 15.3% | 15.3% | 2.6% | — | 5.38 | 16.3% | 2.1% | 318 | -0.17 | — | — | — |
| Nick Pasquale R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.74 | 16.8% | 12.7% | 2.6% | .306 | 3.81 | 17.9% | 6.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.19 | 308 | 86 |
| Scarlyn Reyes R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.53 | 13.9% | 11.9% | 2.0% | .321 | 4.88 | 13.7% | 5.3% | 70 | +0.35 | 4.17 | 317 | 84 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.98 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.0% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 157 | 83 |
| Phillippe Aumont R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.62 | 19.6% | 18.2% | 1.6% | .262 | 4.95 | 22.3% | 10.4% | 64 | +0.33 | 4.62 | 147 | 82 |
| Jarred Cosart R 2026 · 5.11 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.11 | 13.1% | 12.9% | 2.7% | .297 | 4.10 | 13.2% | -3.5% | 24 | -1.01 | 4.10 | 218 | 81 |
| M.D. Johnson R 2026 · 5.63 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.63 | 16.4% | 12.7% | 4.2% | .254 | 3.52 | 14.6% | 4.7% | 67 | -2.11 | 3.52 | 395 | 81 |
| Jake Bockenstedt R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.46 | 16.9% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 195 | 80 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.79 | 11.7% | 11.7% | 2.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 371 | 80 |
| Kevin Abel R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.51 | 17.8% | 12.0% | 2.5% | .264 | 5.78 | 15.1% | -7.3% | 13 | +1.27 | 4.50 | 352 | 79 |
| Jordan Cooper R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.96 | 9.2% | 10.2% | 2.5% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.96 | 106 | 79 |
| Andrew Bash R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.72 | 18.1% | 13.6% | 2.6% | .249 | 3.72 | 17.9% | 7.3% | 177 | -1.00 | 3.63 | 428 | 78 |
| Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2027 · 5.27 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.27 | 11.6% | 9.8% | 3.5% | .263 | 4.25 | 15.3% | 5.2% | 167 | -1.02 | 3.92 | 272 | 78 |
| Connor Staine R 2024 · 5.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.31 | 14.0% | 13.0% | 3.2% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 291 | 77 |
| Ranfi Casimiro R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.66 | 16.4% | 10.7% | 2.9% | .285 | 4.91 | 8.4% | -0.2% | 16 | +0.25 | 3.81 | 420 | 77 |
| Logan Verrett R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.08 | 15.4% | 10.6% | 3.5% | .283 | 4.68 | 17.8% | 11.8% | 94 | -0.40 | 3.83 | 550 | 76 |
| Kyle Haynes R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.58 | 15.7% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 240 | 76 |
| Mike Connolly R 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.12 | 13.2% | 9.4% | 3.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 328 | 76 |
| Kevin Biondic R 2023 · 5.52 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.52 | 8.6% | 11.0% | 3.2% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.52 | 100 | 76 |
| Nathan Dettmer R 2023 · 4.70 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.70 | 13.0% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .365 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.70 | 109 | 76 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.43 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.6% | .393 | 4.26 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | -0.17 | 4.26 | 166 | 76 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.