Ryan Cardona — OGILVIE

Ryan Cardona P Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 26 RHP 6'1" / 213 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 146138vR 130

ERA5.96

FIP5.96

K%12.5%

BB%16.6%

K-BB%-4.1%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL3535

CMD2525

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	4	13	57	10	5	1	57%	1.9	17.5%	8.8%	8.8%	1.8%	3.46	3.69	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	4	13	57	10	5	1	57%	1.9	17.5%	8.8%	8.8%	1.8%	3.46	3.72	—
2022	22	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	25	7	75	326	92	49	6	28%	3.0	20.9%	17.7%	3.1%	2.7%	3.36	5.07	—
2022	22	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	25	7	75	326	92	49	6	28%	3.0	28.2%	15.0%	13.2%	1.8%	3.36	3.65	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	16	90	385	114	50	4	67%	3.8	22.8%	16.5%	6.3%	1.1%	3.49	3.85	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	16	90	385	114	50	4	67%	3.8	22.8%	16.5%	6.3%	1.1%	3.49	3.85	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	16	90	385	114	50	4	67%	3.8	29.6%	13.0%	16.6%	1.0%	3.49	2.81	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	22	19	104	426	120	43	7	86%	4.7	21.7%	11.6%	10.1%	1.6%	3.29	3.62	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	22	19	104	426	120	43	7	86%	4.7	21.7%	11.6%	10.1%	1.6%	3.29	3.62	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	22	19	104	426	120	43	7	86%	4.7	28.2%	10.1%	18.1%	1.6%	3.29	2.91	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	23	112	482	71	64	11	88%	4.3	12.0%	14.9%	-2.9%	2.3%	4.76	5.23	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	23	112	482	71	64	11	88%	4.3	12.0%	14.9%	-2.9%	2.3%	4.76	5.23	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	23	112	482	71	64	11	88%	4.3	14.7%	13.3%	1.5%	2.3%	4.76	4.83	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	CIN	1	1	6	25	3	4	1	100%	6.0	12.5%	16.6%	-4.1%	2.6%	5.96	5.96	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CIN	16	16	99	418	56	66	11	100%	6.2	13.4%	15.8%	-2.4%	2.7%	5.81	5.82	-1.0
2028	28	MLB MLE	CIN	16	16	96	405	57	62	11	100%	6.0	14.0%	15.4%	-1.4%	2.8%	5.75	5.79	-0.9
2029	29	MLB MLE	CIN	15	15	92	387	55	59	11	100%	6.1	14.1%	15.2%	-1.1%	3.0%	5.78	5.84	-0.9
2030	30	MLB MLE	CIN	14	14	86	364	51	56	12	100%	6.2	14.0%	15.3%	-1.3%	3.2%	5.89	5.98	-1.0
2027	27	MLB CTX	CIN	6	6	37	156	21	25	4	100%	6.2	13.4%	15.8%	-2.4%	2.7%	5.81	5.82	-0.4
2028	28	MLB CTX	CIN	10	10	57	241	34	37	7	100%	5.7	14.0%	15.4%	-1.4%	2.8%	5.75	5.79	-0.6
2029	29	MLB CTX	CIN	11	11	65	274	39	42	8	100%	5.9	14.1%	15.2%	-1.1%	3.0%	5.78	5.84	-0.7
2030	30	MLB CTX	CIN	11	11	68	287	40	44	9	100%	6.2	14.0%	15.3%	-1.3%	3.2%	5.89	5.98	-0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		38	38	227	957	133	147	28	100%	6.0	13.9%	15.4%	-1.5%	2.9%	5.81	5.49	-1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	117	130	25	100%	6.0	13.9%	15.4%	-1.5%	2.9%	5.81	5.49	-1.3
Career	—	MLE		104	69	394	1676	316	247	32	66%	3.8	18.9%	14.8%	4.1%	1.9%	3.77	4.42	-4.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	35	200	851	160	126	16	66%	3.8	18.9%	14.8%	4.1%	1.9%	3.77	4.42	-2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Cardona (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.96	12.5%	16.6%	2.6%	—	5.82	13.8%	-1.6%	287	-0.14	—	—	—
Mason Pelio R 2023 · 6.38 FIP	23	SP-	6.38	13.3%	17.4%	4.0%	.255	5.88	9.0%	-12.8%	26	-0.50	5.88	122	79
Luis Niebla R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP-	5.12	11.6%	13.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	156	79
Johnny Hellweg R 2015 · 5.96 FIP	26	SP	5.96	9.9%	19.0%	2.4%	.269	4.06	15.2%	2.0%	48	-1.90	2.98	109	76
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	247	75
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	73
Holt Jones R 2023 · 5.06 FIP	24	SP-	5.06	16.1%	17.9%	1.9%	.285	4.01	21.7%	7.0%	161	-1.05	3.37	241	73
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2015 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP-	5.24	11.6%	9.8%	3.4%	.263	4.28	15.3%	5.2%	167	-0.96	4.01	272	72
Kevin McAvoy R 2018 · 5.02 FIP	25	SP-	5.02	15.2%	17.2%	1.9%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	466	72
Noah Song R 2023 · 6.06 FIP	26	SP	6.06	12.0%	13.2%	4.2%	.239	3.84	19.6%	8.0%	114	-2.22	3.68	136	71
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.41	25.9%	11.8%	106	-0.76	3.84	202	71
Mike McCarthy R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	27	SP-	4.78	9.4%	9.1%	2.4%	.280	5.03	6.2%	-3.5%	37	+0.25	4.78	153	70
Jordan Cooper R 2015 · 5.01 FIP	26	SP	5.01	9.2%	10.2%	2.5%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	5.01	106	69
Kevin Biondic R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	8.6%	11.0%	3.2%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	5.52	100	68
Baron Stuart R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	24	SP	5.24	14.5%	12.2%	3.3%	.266	4.23	17.6%	4.1%	205	-1.01	3.57	306	68
Joe Record R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	26	SW	4.82	16.6%	15.3%	2.2%	.236	3.59	20.3%	8.6%	172	-1.23	2.64	280	67
Keyvius Sampson R 2017 · 5.08 FIP	26	SP-	5.08	19.6%	16.4%	2.8%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	316	67
Reid Johnston R 2023 · 5.00 FIP	24	SP-	5.00	19.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.256	5.86	17.2%	2.4%	31	+0.86	3.74	234	67
Levi Stoudt R 2023 · 6.26 FIP	25	SP-	6.26	13.0%	12.1%	5.0%	.280	6.17	15.0%	4.1%	110	-0.09	4.35	395	67
Adam Panayotovich R 2017 · 5.45 FIP	25	SP-	5.45	9.6%	9.0%	3.7%	.375	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	121	67
Alex Valverde R 2023 · 5.13 FIP	26	SP-	5.13	14.9%	11.7%	3.3%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	423	66

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	89	13.6%	15.6%	1.10	5.83
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74