Ryan Cardona
P
Chattanooga Lookouts
Age 26
RHP
6'1" / 213 lbs
AA
peak 0.4 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 72 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 152143vR 134
ERA5.94
FIP5.94
K%12.5%
BB%16.7%
K-BB%-4.2%
ROS IP72
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 72 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 4 | 13 | 57 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 57% | 1.9 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 1.8% | 3.46 | 3.69 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 4 | 13 | 57 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 57% | 1.9 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 1.8% | 3.46 | 3.72 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 25 | 7 | 75 | 326 | 92 | 49 | 6 | 28% | 3.0 | 20.9% | 17.7% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.36 | 5.30 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 25 | 7 | 75 | 326 | 92 | 49 | 6 | 28% | 3.0 | 28.2% | 15.0% | 13.2% | 1.8% | 3.36 | 3.65 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 16 | 90 | 385 | 114 | 50 | 4 | 67% | 3.8 | 22.8% | 16.5% | 6.3% | 1.0% | 3.49 | 3.82 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 16 | 90 | 385 | 114 | 50 | 4 | 67% | 3.8 | 29.6% | 13.0% | 16.6% | 1.0% | 3.49 | 2.81 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 22 | 19 | 104 | 426 | 120 | 43 | 7 | 86% | 4.7 | 21.7% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 1.3% | 3.29 | 3.46 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 22 | 19 | 104 | 426 | 120 | 43 | 7 | 86% | 4.7 | 28.2% | 10.1% | 18.1% | 1.6% | 3.29 | 2.91 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 23 | 112 | 482 | 71 | 64 | 11 | 88% | 4.3 | 12.0% | 14.9% | -2.9% | 2.3% | 4.76 | 5.21 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 23 | 112 | 482 | 71 | 64 | 11 | 88% | 4.3 | 14.7% | 13.3% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 4.76 | 4.83 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 12 | 12 | 72 | 305 | 38 | 51 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 12.5% | 16.7% | -4.2% | 2.5% | 5.94 | 5.94 | -1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 12 | 12 | 71 | 301 | 41 | 48 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 13.6% | 16.0% | -2.4% | 2.6% | 5.80 | 5.81 | -0.9 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 12 | 12 | 69 | 292 | 41 | 46 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 14.2% | 15.6% | -1.4% | 2.8% | 5.75 | 5.78 | -0.8 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 4 | 4 | 27 | 114 | 15 | 18 | 3 | 100% | 6.8 | 13.6% | 16.0% | -2.4% | 2.6% | 5.80 | 5.81 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 7 | 7 | 41 | 173 | 25 | 27 | 5 | 100% | 5.9 | 14.2% | 15.6% | -1.4% | 2.8% | 5.75 | 5.78 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 40 | 45 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 13.9% | 15.8% | -1.8% | 2.7% | 5.77 | 5.41 | -0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 118 | 133 | 24 | 100% | 6.0 | 13.9% | 15.8% | -1.8% | 2.7% | 5.77 | 5.41 | -0.0 | ||
| Career | — | 104 | 69 | 394 | 1676 | 316 | 247 | 32 | 66% | 3.8 | 18.9% | 14.8% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 3.77 | 4.41 | +4.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 35 | 200 | 851 | 160 | 126 | 16 | 66% | 3.8 | 18.9% | 14.8% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 3.77 | 4.41 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Cardona (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.94 | 12.5% | 16.7% | 2.5% | — | 5.80 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 140 | -0.14 | — | — | — |
| Luis Niebla R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.94 | 11.6% | 13.2% | 2.1% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 156 | 79 |
| Johnny Hellweg R 2026 · 5.98 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.98 | 9.9% | 19.0% | 2.4% | .269 | 4.11 | 15.2% | 2.0% | 48 | -1.87 | 2.98 | 109 | 76 |
| Paul Clemens R 2027 · 5.36 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.36 | 14.3% | 14.1% | 3.1% | .310 | 4.76 | 16.9% | 7.3% | 200 | -0.60 | 4.76 | 247 | 75 |
| Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2027 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.13 | 11.6% | 9.8% | 3.2% | .263 | 4.14 | 15.3% | 5.2% | 167 | -0.99 | 3.84 | 272 | 72 |
| Kevin McAvoy R 2025 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.99 | 15.2% | 17.2% | 1.8% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.05 | 466 | 72 |
| Trystan Vrieling R 2025 · 5.66 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.66 | 16.8% | 17.2% | 3.3% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 297 | 70 |
| Logan Clayton R 2025 · 4.90 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.90 | 11.2% | 14.1% | 1.8% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 206 | 70 |
| Mike McCarthy R 2027 · 4.79 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.79 | 9.4% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .280 | 4.77 | 6.2% | -3.5% | 37 | -0.02 | 4.77 | 153 | 69 |
| Noah Song R 2026 · 6.24 FIP | 26 | SP | 6.24 | 12.0% | 13.2% | 4.5% | .239 | 4.28 | 17.8% | 4.6% | 85 | -1.96 | 3.62 | 106 | 69 |
| Tommy Mace R 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.34 | 14.6% | 16.9% | 2.4% | .232 | 6.51 | 13.5% | -5.3% | 40 | +1.17 | 4.93 | 501 | 69 |
| John West R 2024 · 5.06 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.06 | 14.0% | 15.1% | 2.2% | .255 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.06 | 161 | 69 |
| Jordan Cooper R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.05 | 9.2% | 10.2% | 2.6% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.05 | 106 | 69 |
| Brandon Dufault R 2026 · 5.20 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.20 | 12.2% | 20.1% | 1.1% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 152 | 69 |
| Drake Fellows R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.39 | 16.2% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .293 | 4.64 | 16.3% | 6.7% | 150 | -0.75 | 4.58 | 226 | 69 |
| Zach Fruit R 2025 · 4.83 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.83 | 15.4% | 15.6% | 1.9% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 151 | 69 |
| Kevin Biondic R 2023 · 5.39 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.39 | 8.6% | 11.0% | 2.9% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.39 | 100 | 68 |
| Keyvius Sampson R 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.21 | 19.6% | 16.4% | 3.1% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 316 | 68 |
| Alex Valverde R 2026 · 5.33 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.33 | 15.3% | 12.5% | 3.5% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 423 | 67 |
| Brendan Girton R 2024 · 6.62 FIP | 24 | SP | 6.62 | 16.5% | 17.6% | 4.9% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 150 | 67 |
| Ronald Bolaños R 2026 · 5.33 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.33 | 12.8% | 15.2% | 2.5% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.03 | 508 | 67 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 71 | 13.4% | 16.1% | 1.03 | 5.83 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |