Ryan Cardona

P Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 213 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	MIX2 levels	24	16	90	3.49	2.81	29.6%	13.0%	—	K 22.8% · BB 16.5% · FIP 3.85
2024	24	A+CIN	22	19	104	3.29	2.91	28.2%	10.1%	—	K 21.7% · BB 11.6% · FIP 3.62
2025	25	MIX2 levels	26	23	112	4.76	4.83	14.7%	13.3%	—	K 12.0% · BB 14.9% · FIP 5.23
2026	26	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	27	MLBCIN	1	1	1	6.09	6.09	11.9%	16.5%	-0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBCIN	4	4	21	5.97	6.00	12.9%	15.9%	-0.1
2029PROJ56% MLB	29	MLBCIN	4	4	26	5.94	6.01	13.5%	15.6%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control35Command25

CompsLuis Niebla (age 26) · Edgar Alberto Garcia (age 27) · Noah Song (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 149141vR 133

ERA6.09

FIP6.09

K%11.9%

BB%16.5%

K-BB%-4.6%

Proj IP74

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 74 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL3535

CMD2525

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	4	13	57	10	5	1	57%	1.9	17.5%	8.8%	8.8%	1.8%	3.46	3.69	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	4	13	57	10	5	1	57%	1.9	17.5%	8.8%	8.8%	1.8%	3.46	3.72	—
2022	22	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	25	7	75	326	92	49	6	28%	3.0	20.9%	17.7%	3.1%	2.7%	3.36	5.07	—
2022	22	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	25	7	75	326	92	49	6	28%	3.0	28.2%	15.0%	13.2%	1.8%	3.36	3.65	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	16	90	385	114	50	4	67%	3.8	22.8%	16.5%	6.3%	1.1%	3.49	3.85	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	16	90	385	114	50	4	67%	3.8	29.6%	13.0%	16.6%	1.0%	3.49	2.81	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	22	19	104	426	120	43	7	86%	4.7	21.7%	11.6%	10.1%	1.6%	3.29	3.62	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	22	19	104	426	120	43	7	86%	4.7	21.7%	11.6%	10.1%	1.6%	3.29	3.62	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	22	19	104	426	120	43	7	86%	4.7	28.2%	10.1%	18.1%	1.6%	3.29	2.91	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	23	112	482	71	64	11	88%	4.3	12.0%	14.9%	-2.9%	2.3%	4.76	5.23	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	23	112	482	71	64	11	88%	4.3	12.0%	14.9%	-2.9%	2.3%	4.76	5.23	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	23	112	482	71	64	11	88%	4.3	14.7%	13.3%	1.5%	2.3%	4.76	4.83	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	CIN	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	100%	1.0	11.9%	16.5%	-4.6%	2.8%	6.09	6.09	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	CIN	9	9	55	232	30	37	7	100%	6.1	12.9%	15.9%	-3.0%	2.9%	5.97	6.00	-0.4
2029	29	MLB MLE	CIN	8	8	46	195	26	30	6	100%	5.8	13.5%	15.6%	-2.2%	3.1%	5.94	6.01	-0.3
2030	30	MLB MLE	CIN	7	7	41	173	24	27	6	100%	5.8	13.6%	15.6%	-2.0%	3.3%	6.00	6.10	-0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	CIN	4	4	21	89	11	14	3	100%	5.2	12.9%	15.9%	-3.0%	2.9%	5.97	6.00	-0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	CIN	4	4	26	110	15	17	3	100%	6.5	13.5%	15.6%	-2.2%	3.1%	5.94	6.01	-0.2
2030	30	MLB CTX	CIN	5	5	28	118	16	18	4	100%	5.6	13.6%	15.6%	-2.0%	3.3%	6.00	6.10	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	12	74	313	42	49	10	100%	6.2	13.4%	15.7%	-2.3%	3.1%	5.97	5.66	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	113	132	27	100%	6.0	13.4%	15.7%	-2.3%	3.1%	5.97	5.66	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		104	69	394	1676	316	247	32	66%	3.8	18.9%	14.8%	4.1%	1.9%	3.77	4.42	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	35	200	851	160	126	16	66%	3.8	18.9%	14.8%	4.1%	1.9%	3.77	4.42	-1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 107 IPFIP 4.64 → 5.23 (+0.60)K% 14.8% → 12.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.81%	—	×0.810	12.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.51%	—	×1.100	14.86%
HR / BF /BF	1.96%	÷1.021	×1.200	2.30%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 104).

Result: FIP 4.64 → 5.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAALouisville Bats · 5 IPFIP 7.87 → 8.97 (+1.10)K% 13.0% → 11.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.04%	—	×0.860	11.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.70%	—	×0.900	7.83%
HR / BF /BF	8.70%	÷0.901	×1.100	10.61%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 80).

Result: FIP 7.87 → 8.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Dayton Dragons · 104 IPFIP 2.90 → 3.62 (+0.71)K% 28.2% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.17%	—	×0.770	21.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.09%	—	×1.150	11.61%
HR / BF /BF	1.64%	÷1.285	×1.250	1.60%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 157).

Result: FIP 2.90 → 3.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ADaytona Tortugas · 81 IPFIP 2.74 → 3.85 (+1.10)K% 30.8% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.81%	—	×0.740	22.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.95%	—	×1.180	16.47%
HR / BF /BF	0.87%	÷1.060	×1.300	1.07%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).

Result: FIP 2.74 → 3.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Dayton Dragons · 9 IPFIP 3.41 → 4.30 (+0.89)K% 19.5% → 15.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.51%	—	×0.770	15.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.88%	—	×1.150	5.61%
HR / BF /BF	2.44%	÷0.951	×1.250	3.21%

Result: FIP 3.41 → 4.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ADaytona Tortugas · 75 IPFIP 3.63 → 5.07 (+1.44)K% 28.2% → 20.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.22%	—	×0.740	20.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.03%	—	×1.180	17.74%
HR / BF /BF	1.84%	÷0.883	×1.300	2.71%

Result: FIP 3.63 → 5.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ADaytona Tortugas · 9 IPFIP 4.51 → 5.59 (+1.08)K% 16.7% → 12.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.67%	—	×0.740	12.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.90%	—	×1.180	14.05%
HR / BF /BF	2.38%	÷0.969	×1.300	3.19%

Result: FIP 4.51 → 5.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Cardona (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.09	11.9%	16.5%	2.8%	—	6.03	13.3%	-2.4%	142	-0.06	—	—	—
Luis Niebla R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP-	5.12	11.6%	13.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	156	77
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2015 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP-	5.24	11.6%	9.8%	3.4%	.263	4.28	15.3%	5.2%	167	-0.96	4.01	272	73
Noah Song R 2023 · 6.06 FIP	26	SP	6.06	12.0%	13.2%	4.2%	.239	3.80	19.8%	8.3%	116	-2.26	3.68	138	70
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	345	69
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	68
Drake Fellows R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	26	SP-	4.97	16.1%	12.7%	2.9%	.293	4.85	14.2%	6.3%	207	-0.12	4.28	282	68
Jordan Cooper R 2015 · 5.01 FIP	26	SP	5.01	9.2%	10.2%	2.5%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	5.01	106	68
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	67
Jim Brower R 2000 · 5.54 FIP	27	SP-	5.54	10.9%	10.2%	3.8%	.314	4.22	16.4%	7.2%	310	-1.32	3.67	571	67
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	67
Chris Jensen R 2018 · 5.31 FIP	27	SW	5.31	12.0%	10.6%	3.4%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	488	67
Daniel Bard R 2012 · 5.69 FIP	27	SP-	5.69	13.7%	15.2%	3.3%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	456	66
Adam Panayotovich R 2017 · 5.45 FIP	25	SP-	5.45	9.6%	9.0%	3.7%	.375	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	121	66
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	66
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	66
Keyvius Sampson R 2017 · 5.08 FIP	26	SP-	5.08	19.6%	16.4%	2.8%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	316	65
Matthew Shepherd R 2015 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	13.7%	9.5%	3.3%	.390	—	—	—	—	—	4.98	116	65
Justin Miller R 2004 · 5.41 FIP	26	SP-	5.41	12.5%	10.4%	3.7%	.316	2.63	28.6%	21.7%	62	-2.78	2.63	373	65
Bryan Mitchell R 2018 · 6.03 FIP	27	SP-	6.03	13.0%	12.2%	4.5%	.282	5.36	17.2%	4.6%	115	-0.67	2.72	481	65
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.83 FIP	27	SP-	5.83	14.2%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	54	12.8%	16.0%	1.15	6.01
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Lloyd Allen ('69-'75, -5 WAR*)	1.5	59	19.8%*	13.9%*	0.79*	5.99*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*