Michael Forret

P Norfolk Tides

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 190 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.3 · 2028

Overview

AAAPROSPECTPre-ArbFA 2033

OGV OFP45OGV rank#70ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	MIX2 levels	26	17	100	3.88	2.98	28.8%	10.2%	—	K 21.8% · BB 11.8% · FIP 4.00
2025	21	MIX2 levels	19	18	74	1.58	2.02	32.3%	7.4%	—	K 25.1% · BB 8.5% · FIP 2.65
2026	22	MIX2 levels	24	23	116	3.89	3.46	25.4%	11.0%	—	K 21.3% · BB 10.8% · FIP 3.96
2027PROJ	23	MLBBAL	2	2	10	4.17	4.17	22.7%	9.7%	0.1
2028PROJ48% MLB	24	MLBBAL	10	10	54	4.15	4.09	23.3%	8.9%	0.9
2029PROJ69% MLB	25	MLBBAL	14	14	81	4.07	4.01	23.5%	8.4%	1.4

Next 3 projected WAR 2.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.0First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$4M2031Arb-2$7M2032Arb-3$9M

Career WAR0.8 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 20, comp-based) · star 6% · didn't stick 67%

CompsRorik Maltrud (age 24) · Luke Russo (age 23) · Brody McCullough (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA4.17

FIP4.17

K%22.7%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%13.0%

Proj IP98

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 98 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$36M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$3M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$10M	+$9M
2030	Arb-1	$4M	+1.7	$11M	+$8M
2031	Arb-2	$7M	+1.7	$10M	+$5M
2032	Arb-3	$9M	+1.6	$9M	+$3M
Totals		$23M		$43M	+$28M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	17	100	431	124	44	8	65%	3.8	21.8%	11.8%	10.0%	2.3%	3.88	4.00	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	17	100	431	124	44	8	65%	3.8	21.8%	11.8%	10.0%	2.3%	3.88	4.00	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	17	100	431	124	44	8	65%	3.8	28.8%	10.2%	18.6%	1.9%	3.88	2.98	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	18	74	282	91	21	3	95%	3.9	25.1%	8.5%	16.6%	1.1%	1.58	2.65	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	18	74	282	91	21	3	95%	3.9	25.1%	8.5%	16.6%	1.1%	1.58	2.65	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	18	74	282	91	21	3	95%	3.9	32.3%	7.4%	24.8%	1.1%	1.58	2.02	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	116	492	125	54	10	96%	4.8	21.3%	10.8%	10.5%	2.4%	3.89	3.96	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	116	492	125	54	10	96%	4.8	21.3%	10.8%	10.5%	2.4%	3.89	3.96	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	23	116	492	125	54	10	96%	4.8	25.4%	11.0%	14.4%	2.0%	3.89	3.46	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	BAL	2	2	10	42	10	4	1	100%	5.0	22.7%	9.7%	13.0%	2.5%	4.17	4.17	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	BAL	20	20	111	470	109	42	12	100%	5.6	23.3%	8.9%	14.4%	2.5%	4.09	4.03	+1.8
2029	25	MLB MLE	BAL	20	20	117	493	116	41	13	100%	5.8	23.5%	8.4%	15.2%	2.6%	4.01	3.95	+2.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	BAL	20	20	123	519	123	43	13	100%	6.1	23.7%	8.3%	15.4%	2.6%	3.98	3.95	+2.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	BAL	20	20	120	505	119	42	13	100%	6.0	23.6%	8.4%	15.3%	2.6%	3.99	3.99	+2.0
2032	28	MLB MLE	BAL	19	19	114	482	113	41	13	100%	6.0	23.5%	8.5%	15.0%	2.7%	4.04	4.08	+1.8
2033	29	MLB MLE	BAL	18	18	106	449	105	39	13	100%	5.9	23.3%	8.8%	14.5%	2.9%	4.14	4.21	+1.5
2034	30	MLB MLE	BAL	16	16	97	408	94	37	13	100%	6.0	22.9%	9.1%	13.9%	3.1%	4.29	4.39	+1.1
2035	31	MLB MLE	BAL	14	14	86	365	82	34	12	100%	6.2	22.5%	9.4%	13.1%	3.3%	4.47	4.59	+0.8
2036	32	MLB MLE	BAL	13	13	76	321	71	32	11	100%	5.9	22.1%	9.8%	12.3%	3.6%	4.68	4.81	+0.5
2037	33	MLB MLE	BAL	11	11	66	280	60	29	11	100%	6.0	21.6%	10.3%	11.3%	3.8%	4.91	5.06	+0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	BAL	10	10	54	228	53	20	6	100%	5.4	23.3%	8.9%	14.4%	2.6%	4.15	4.09	+0.9
2029	25	MLB CTX	BAL	14	14	81	342	81	29	9	100%	5.8	23.5%	8.4%	15.2%	2.7%	4.07	4.01	+1.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	BAL	16	16	99	418	99	35	11	100%	6.2	23.7%	8.3%	15.4%	2.7%	4.04	4.01	+1.7
2031	27	MLB CTX	BAL	17	17	103	435	103	36	12	100%	6.1	23.6%	8.4%	15.3%	2.8%	4.06	4.06	+1.7
2032	28	MLB CTX	BAL	17	17	102	431	101	37	12	100%	6.0	23.5%	8.5%	15.0%	2.9%	4.11	4.15	+1.6
2033	29	MLB CTX	BAL	16	16	97	410	95	36	12	100%	6.1	23.3%	8.8%	14.5%	3.0%	4.21	4.28	+1.4
2034	30	MLB CTX	BAL	15	15	89	376	86	34	12	100%	5.9	22.9%	9.1%	13.9%	3.2%	4.37	4.47	+1.1
2035	31	MLB CTX	BAL	14	14	81	342	77	32	12	100%	5.8	22.5%	9.4%	13.1%	3.5%	4.55	4.67	+0.8
2036	32	MLB CTX	BAL	12	12	72	304	67	30	11	100%	6.0	22.1%	9.8%	12.3%	3.7%	4.77	4.90	+0.5
2037	33	MLB CTX	BAL	10	10	63	266	57	27	11	100%	6.3	21.6%	10.3%	11.3%	4.0%	5.00	5.15	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		141	141	842	3554	820	316	109	100%	6.0	23.1%	8.9%	14.2%	3.1%	4.30	3.96	+14.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	195	75	26	100%	6.0	23.1%	8.9%	14.2%	3.1%	4.30	3.96	+3.4
Career	—	MLE		69	58	289	1205	269	128	24	84%	4.2	22.4%	10.6%	11.7%	2.0%	3.30	3.67	+13.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	40	200	833	186	88	17	84%	4.2	22.4%	10.6%	11.7%	2.0%	3.30	3.67	+2.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAANorfolk Tides · 61 IPFIP 3.25 → 3.47 (+0.22)K% 24.6% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.56%	—	×0.860	21.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.39%	—	×0.900	10.25%
HR / BF /BF	1.42%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.57%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.25 → 3.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 54 IPFIP 3.74 → 4.61 (+0.87)K% 26.5% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.54%	—	×0.810	21.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.43%	—	×1.100	11.47%
HR / BF /BF	2.84%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.41%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.74 → 4.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 60 IPFIP 1.95 → 2.75 (+0.81)K% 33.5% → 25.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.48%	—	×0.770	25.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.49%	—	×1.150	8.61%
HR / BF /BF	1.32%	÷1.229	×1.250	1.34%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 146).

Result: FIP 1.95 → 2.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAChesapeake Baysox · 14 IPFIP 1.72 → 2.25 (+0.53)K% 27.3% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.27%	—	×0.810	22.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.27%	—	×1.100	8.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.248	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.72 → 2.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 60 IPFIP 3.75 → 4.86 (+1.11)K% 28.1% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.09%	—	×0.770	21.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.86%	—	×1.150	12.49%
HR / BF /BF	3.00%	÷1.026	×1.250	3.65%

Result: FIP 3.75 → 4.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 40 IPFIP 1.74 → 2.60 (+0.86)K% 29.9% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.88%	—	×0.740	22.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.15%	—	×1.180	10.79%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.952	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 1.74 → 2.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael Forret (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.5%	—	3.98	23.5%	15.0%	351	-0.19	—	—	—
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	90
Luke Russo R 2024 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP	3.74	21.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.326	5.00	19.6%	8.8%	159	+1.26	3.74	260	89
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	88
Blake Wehunt R 2024 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP	3.65	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.30	21.0%	11.4%	164	+0.65	3.65	256	88
Mitch Spence R 2021 · 4.12 FIP	23	SP	4.12	20.3%	9.5%	2.8%	.314	4.51	19.0%	11.8%	445	+0.39	4.12	747	88
Jaden Hamm R 2024 · 3.79 FIP	21	SP	3.79	23.5%	8.9%	2.8%	.273	4.79	17.1%	7.3%	83	+1.00	3.79	182	87
Ben Gross R 2021 · 4.05 FIP	24	SP-	4.05	23.0%	8.8%	3.2%	.359	4.85	17.6%	2.0%	22	+0.80	4.05	118	87
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.42	20.6%	11.4%	217	-0.41	3.07	280	87
Jack Wenninger R 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP-	4.33	20.9%	9.3%	3.3%	.309	4.29	21.1%	11.1%	251	-0.04	3.90	366	87
Zach Peek R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	22.8%	10.1%	2.1%	.339	3.51	17.5%	9.8%	45	-0.11	3.51	256	86
Colin Peluse R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	20.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.299	5.49	15.0%	7.2%	236	+1.29	3.05	420	86
Carson Spiers R 2021 · 3.78 FIP	23	SP-	3.78	22.2%	8.8%	2.6%	.284	4.69	19.5%	10.6%	355	+0.91	3.70	517	86
Ryan Bergert R 2023 · 3.44 FIP	23	SP	3.44	23.0%	12.1%	1.4%	.286	4.12	19.4%	10.1%	219	+0.68	3.44	428	86
Cody Morris R 2019 · 3.73 FIP	22	SP	3.73	21.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.362	2.85	31.1%	20.9%	96	-0.88	2.23	256	85
Matt Duffy R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	18.5%	7.9%	2.8%	.274	9.34	22.0%	9.7%	17	+5.27	4.07	116	85
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	85
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	85
Jared Karros R 2024 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	21.9%	9.2%	1.7%	.281	7.71	12.4%	2.7%	52	+4.35	3.36	191	85
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	85
Zack Lee R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP-	3.51	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	4.54	15.0%	6.5%	153	+1.03	3.22	236	85

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.6	101	23.1%	8.9%	1.11	4.20
Rich Hill ('25)	7.1	101	23.9%	9.2%	1.12	4.02
Skip Lockwood ('69-'80, 11 WAR*)	6.2	103	22.5%*	9.1%*	1.06*	4.28*
Bud Norris ('18)	6.1	122	21.7%	9.1%	1.15	4.45
Joe Hesketh ('84-'94, 10 WAR*)	4.8	87	23.2%*	8.8%*	1.07*	3.95*
Frankie Montas ('25)	3.9	98	23.6%	8.2%	1.20	4.20
Bobby Bolin ('61-'73, 12 WAR*)	7.9	121	22.7%*	9.6%*	1.33*	4.11*