Michael Forret
P
Montgomery Biscuits
+1.1
WAR
Age 22
RHP
6'3" / 190 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 2.4 · 2030
ERA4.11
FIP4.11
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.5%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%14.0%
IP83
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.4peak
2030
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | 26 | 17 | 100 | 431 | 124 | 44 | 8 | 21.8% | 11.8% | 2.3% | 3.88 | 3.99 | +1.5 |
| 2025 | 21 | AA | Chesapeake Baysox | 19 | 18 | 74 | 282 | 91 | 21 | 3 | 25.1% | 8.5% | 1.1% | 1.58 | 2.67 | +2.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 2 | 2 | 9 | 37 | 10 | 8 | 2 | — | — | — | 2.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | TB | 15 | 15 | 83 | 349 | 82 | 33 | 9 | 23.5% | 9.5% | 2.6% | 4.11 | 4.11 | +1.0 |
| 2026 Total | 22 | MLB | TB | — | — | 92 | 386 | 92 | 41 | 11 | 23.9% | 10.7% | 2.9% | 3.90 | 3.71 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | TB | 19 | 19 | 106 | 446 | 108 | 40 | 12 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 2.6% | 4.04 | 3.98 | +1.6 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | TB | 23 | 23 | 124 | 525 | 129 | 45 | 14 | 24.5% | 8.5% | 2.6% | 3.97 | 3.91 | +2.0 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | TB | 25 | 25 | 138 | 582 | 144 | 49 | 15 | 24.7% | 8.3% | 2.6% | 3.91 | 3.87 | +2.2 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | TB | 26 | 26 | 145 | 612 | 152 | 51 | 16 | 24.9% | 8.3% | 2.6% | 3.88 | 3.85 | +2.4 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | TB | 27 | 27 | 148 | 624 | 155 | 52 | 16 | 24.9% | 8.3% | 2.6% | 3.87 | 3.86 | +2.4 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | TB | 27 | 27 | 148 | 623 | 155 | 52 | 16 | 24.9% | 8.3% | 2.6% | 3.88 | 3.89 | +2.4 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | TB | 26 | 26 | 144 | 609 | 151 | 51 | 16 | 24.7% | 8.4% | 2.7% | 3.91 | 3.93 | +2.2 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | TB | 25 | 25 | 140 | 591 | 145 | 50 | 16 | 24.5% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 3.96 | 4.00 | +2.1 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | TB | 25 | 25 | 135 | 570 | 138 | 49 | 16 | 24.3% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 4.03 | 4.07 | +1.9 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | TB | 24 | 24 | 130 | 548 | 131 | 48 | 16 | 24.0% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 4.11 | 4.16 | +1.7 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | TB | 23 | 23 | 124 | 523 | 124 | 47 | 16 | 23.7% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 4.20 | 4.25 | +1.5 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | TB | 21 | 21 | 118 | 497 | 116 | 46 | 15 | 23.3% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 4.30 | 4.37 | +1.2 |
| 2039 | 35 | MLB | TB | 20 | 20 | 111 | 468 | 107 | 44 | 15 | 22.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 4.41 | 4.49 | +1.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 47 | 37 | 183 | 750 | 175 | 83 | 15 | 23.3% | 11.1% | 2.0% | 2.86 | 3.62 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 41 | 200 | 821 | 192 | 91 | 16 | 23.3% | 11.1% | 2.0% | 2.86 | 3.62 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Michael Forret (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.11 | 23.5% | 9.5% | 2.6% | — | 3.92 | 24.5% | 15.9% | 368 | -0.19 | — | — | — |
| Brandon Bailey R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.52 | 24.6% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .290 | 4.44 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 215 | +0.92 | 3.52 | 306 | 93 |
| Javi Rivera R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.85 | 22.3% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .259 | 3.72 | 18.6% | 9.0% | 93 | -0.13 | 2.77 | 186 | 91 |
| Jharel Cotton R 2027 · 3.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.27 | 23.7% | 9.4% | 1.8% | .289 | 4.73 | 22.1% | 14.5% | 315 | +1.46 | 3.20 | 560 | 91 |
| David Perez R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.99 | 21.1% | 9.3% | 2.7% | .292 | 5.20 | 15.6% | 1.9% | 67 | +1.21 | 3.99 | 151 | 89 |
| Vince Velasquez R 2027 · 3.18 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.18 | 26.2% | 9.8% | 1.9% | .290 | 3.84 | 25.5% | 16.5% | 350 | +0.66 | 3.18 | 891 | 89 |
| Chase Hampton R 2025 · 4.05 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.05 | 26.1% | 9.5% | 3.5% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.05 | 107 | 88 |
| Zach Peek R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.60 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .339 | 3.55 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 45 | -0.05 | 3.55 | 205 | 88 |
| Cory Lewis R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.42 | 21.7% | 9.3% | 1.8% | .267 | 5.08 | 22.0% | 5.4% | 139 | +1.66 | 3.42 | 240 | 87 |
| Brett Conine R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.21 | 22.3% | 7.2% | 2.0% | .290 | 5.79 | 15.4% | 4.9% | 205 | +2.58 | 3.21 | 319 | 87 |
| Blake Money R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.53 | 20.7% | 6.9% | 2.4% | .281 | 4.05 | 23.6% | 14.1% | 121 | +0.52 | 3.53 | 224 | 87 |
| Braxton Bragg R 2027 · 3.78 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.78 | 22.3% | 6.4% | 3.2% | .325 | 2.60 | 26.2% | 18.1% | 59 | -1.18 | 2.60 | 155 | 87 |
| Cody Morris R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.68 | 21.6% | 8.1% | 2.5% | .362 | 2.90 | 31.1% | 20.9% | 96 | -0.78 | 2.23 | 256 | 87 |
| Kyle Brnovich R 2027 · 4.01 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.01 | 25.1% | 7.5% | 3.8% | .256 | 5.52 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 89 | +1.51 | 4.01 | 277 | 87 |
| Adrian Florencio R 2026 · 3.06 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.06 | 22.0% | 9.0% | 1.2% | .270 | 6.44 | 16.2% | 2.5% | 58 | +3.38 | 3.06 | 153 | 86 |
| Griffin Canning R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.70 | 21.8% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .312 | 4.13 | 23.9% | 15.3% | 225 | +0.43 | 3.65 | 705 | 86 |
| Owen Wild R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.68 | 23.2% | 7.2% | 2.9% | .319 | 5.42 | 17.4% | 7.8% | 105 | +1.74 | 3.68 | 226 | 86 |
| Landen Roupp R 2027 · 3.01 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.01 | 26.9% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .274 | 3.40 | 23.3% | 12.8% | 209 | +0.39 | 1.83 | 339 | 86 |
| Ian Gardeck R 2028 · 2.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 2.93 | 22.4% | 7.7% | 1.4% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.93 | 105 | 86 |
| Ben Gross R 2028 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.02 | 23.0% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .359 | 4.85 | 17.6% | 2.0% | 22 | +0.83 | 4.02 | 118 | 85 |
| Blake Wehunt R 2027 · 3.65 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.65 | 21.8% | 10.4% | 1.9% | .261 | 4.41 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 63 | +0.76 | 3.65 | 156 | 85 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +2.0 | $17M | +$16M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +2.2 | $19M | +$18M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +2.4 | $22M | +$21M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $5M | +2.4 | $22M | +$17M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $9M | +2.4 | $23M | +$14M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $12M | +2.2 | $22M | +$9M |
| Totals | $29M | $125M | +$95M | ||