Michael Forret — OGILVIE

Michael Forret P Montgomery Biscuits

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 190 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.2 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION79 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109100vR 91

ERA3.94

FIP3.94

K%24.5%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%15.5%

ROS IP65

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 144 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5055

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2030	Arb-1	$8M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$12M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$16M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$9M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	20	MIX	2 levels	26	17	100	431	124	44	8	65%	3.8	21.8%	11.8%	10.0%	2.2%	3.88	3.97	—
2024	20	MIX	2 levels	26	17	100	431	124	44	8	65%	3.8	28.8%	10.2%	18.6%	1.9%	3.88	2.98	—
2025	21	MIX	2 levels	19	18	74	282	91	21	3	95%	3.9	25.1%	8.5%	16.6%	0.9%	1.58	2.56	—
2025	21	MIX	2 levels	19	18	74	282	91	21	3	95%	3.9	32.3%	7.4%	24.8%	1.1%	1.58	2.02	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	AAA	Durham Bulls	16	16	79	316	83	33	8	100%	4.9	21.9%	11.3%	10.6%	3.0%	3.30	4.32	+0.6
ROS	22	MLB	TB	13	13	65	274	67	25	7	100%	5.0	24.5%	9.0%	15.5%	2.5%	3.94	3.94	+0.5
ROS	22	MLB	TB	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	24.5%	9.0%	15.5%	2.5%	3.90	3.90	+0.0
2026 TOT	22	MLB	TB	—	—	144	590	150	58	15	—	—	25.5%	9.8%	15.7%	2.5%	3.59	4.15	+2.1
2026 FULL	22	MLB	TB	—	—	1	5	1	0	0	—	—	24.5%	9.0%	15.5%	2.5%	3.90	3.53	+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	TB	24	24	127	538	135	44	14	100%	5.3	25.0%	8.3%	16.8%	2.5%	3.88	3.81	+2.4
2028	24	MLB	TB	28	28	157	661	168	52	17	100%	5.6	25.4%	7.8%	17.5%	2.5%	3.80	3.73	+3.1
2029	25	MLB	TB	30	30	175	739	189	56	19	100%	5.8	25.6%	7.6%	17.9%	2.6%	3.74	3.69	+3.5
2030	26	MLB	TB	29	29	175	739	190	56	19	100%	6.0	25.7%	7.6%	18.1%	2.6%	3.71	3.68	+3.5
2031	27	MLB	TB	29	29	172	728	187	56	19	100%	5.9	25.7%	7.7%	18.0%	2.6%	3.71	3.72	+3.4
2032	28	MLB	TB	28	28	167	706	180	55	19	100%	6.0	25.6%	7.8%	17.7%	2.7%	3.77	3.80	+3.1
2033	29	MLB	TB	27	27	160	674	171	54	19	100%	5.9	25.3%	8.0%	17.3%	2.9%	3.87	3.93	+2.7
2034	30	MLB	TB	25	25	150	634	158	53	19	100%	6.0	25.0%	8.3%	16.6%	3.1%	4.02	4.11	+2.3
2035	31	MLB	TB	23	23	140	591	145	51	19	100%	6.1	24.6%	8.7%	15.9%	3.3%	4.20	4.31	+1.8
2036	32	MLB	TB	22	22	130	547	132	50	19	100%	5.9	24.1%	9.1%	15.0%	3.5%	4.40	4.54	+1.3
2037	33	MLB	TB	20	20	119	502	118	48	19	100%	5.9	23.6%	9.5%	14.1%	3.8%	4.63	4.79	+0.8
2038	34	MLB	TB	18	18	108	456	105	46	19	100%	6.0	23.1%	10.0%	13.0%	4.1%	4.89	5.06	+0.4
2039	35	MLB	TB	16	16	97	410	92	43	18	100%	6.1	22.4%	10.6%	11.9%	4.5%	5.18	5.37	-0.0
2027	23	MLB	TB	12	12	64	270	68	22	7	100%	5.3	25.0%	8.3%	16.8%	2.5%	3.84	3.77	+0.6
2028	24	MLB	TB	20	20	110	464	118	36	12	100%	5.5	25.4%	7.8%	17.5%	2.5%	3.76	3.69	+2.2
2029	25	MLB	TB	24	24	142	600	153	46	15	100%	5.9	25.6%	7.6%	17.9%	2.5%	3.70	3.65	+2.9
2030	26	MLB	TB	26	26	153	646	166	49	16	100%	5.9	25.7%	7.6%	18.1%	2.5%	3.67	3.64	+3.1
2031	27	MLB	TB	26	26	156	659	169	50	17	100%	6.0	25.7%	7.7%	18.0%	2.5%	3.67	3.68	+3.1
2032	28	MLB	TB	26	26	154	650	166	51	17	100%	5.9	25.6%	7.8%	17.7%	2.6%	3.73	3.76	+3.0
2033	29	MLB	TB	25	25	149	629	159	51	18	100%	6.0	25.3%	8.0%	17.3%	2.8%	3.83	3.89	+2.6
2034	30	MLB	TB	24	24	141	595	149	50	18	100%	5.9	25.0%	8.3%	16.6%	3.0%	3.97	4.06	+2.2
2035	31	MLB	TB	22	22	133	562	138	49	18	100%	6.0	24.6%	8.7%	15.9%	3.2%	4.15	4.26	+1.8
2036	32	MLB	TB	20	20	123	519	125	47	18	100%	6.2	24.1%	9.1%	15.0%	3.4%	4.35	4.49	+1.3
2037	33	MLB	TB	19	19	113	477	113	46	18	100%	5.9	23.6%	9.5%	14.1%	3.7%	4.57	4.73	+0.9
2038	34	MLB	TB	16	16	98	414	95	42	17	100%	6.1	23.1%	10.0%	13.0%	4.0%	4.83	5.00	+0.4
2039	35	MLB	TB	14	14	83	350	79	37	15	100%	5.9	22.4%	10.6%	11.9%	4.3%	5.11	5.30	-0.3
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			273	273	1620	6841	1699	575	204	100%	5.9	24.8%	8.4%	16.4%	3.0%	4.03	3.70	+32.1
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	844	210	71	25	100%	5.9	24.8%	8.4%	16.4%	3.0%	4.03	3.70	+4.0
Career	—			61	51	253	1029	234	111	21	84%	4.1	22.7%	10.8%	12.0%	2.1%	3.03	3.69	+5.1
/ 200 IP	—			48	40	200	815	185	88	17	84%	4.1	22.7%	10.8%	12.0%	2.1%	3.03	3.69	+4.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael Forret (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.94	24.5%	9.0%	2.5%	—	3.74	25.3%	17.5%	459	-0.20	—	—	—
Bryce Mayer R 2027 · 3.30 FIP	23	SP-	3.30	23.4%	8.3%	2.1%	.304	4.80	27.2%	12.2%	52	+1.50	3.30	140	89
Kyle Brnovich R 2027 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	25.1%	7.5%	3.2%	.256	5.06	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.37	3.69	333	88
Garrett Burhenn R 2026 · 4.19 FIP	22	SP	4.19	21.1%	7.7%	3.5%	.333	4.44	16.9%	8.8%	341	+0.25	4.19	433	87
Tanner Burns R 2026 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	22.2%	10.6%	2.8%	.292	5.42	19.5%	6.0%	244	+1.35	4.07	378	86
Pat Gallagher R 2027 · 3.56 FIP	23	SP-	3.56	21.9%	8.3%	2.3%	.284	3.43	20.0%	10.3%	195	-0.13	2.97	258	86
Cory Lewis R 2026 · 3.39 FIP	22	SP	3.39	21.7%	9.3%	1.7%	.267	5.26	21.4%	5.2%	183	+1.87	3.39	284	86
Braxton Bragg R 2027 · 3.78 FIP	23	SP	3.78	22.3%	6.4%	3.2%	.325	2.47	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.31	2.47	155	85
Cody Morris R 2026 · 4.00 FIP	22	SP	4.00	21.6%	8.1%	3.1%	.362	2.86	31.1%	20.9%	96	-1.14	2.26	256	85
Griffin Canning R 2026 · 3.75 FIP	22	SP	3.75	21.8%	10.0%	2.2%	.312	4.30	23.9%	15.3%	225	+0.55	3.70	776	85
Mike Vasil R 2026 · 3.71 FIP	22	SP	3.71	21.9%	10.5%	2.0%	.264	4.60	19.1%	9.4%	359	+0.89	3.71	429	85
Brandon Bailey R 2026 · 3.37 FIP	22	SP-	3.37	24.6%	9.9%	2.0%	.290	4.39	21.2%	9.6%	215	+1.02	3.37	306	85
Trevor Martin R 2026 · 4.15 FIP	22	SP	4.15	21.3%	10.6%	2.7%	.297	4.41	19.9%	10.7%	211	+0.26	4.15	321	85
Blake Wehunt R 2027 · 3.63 FIP	23	SP	3.63	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.10	24.1%	14.3%	117	+0.47	3.63	209	84
Mason Black R 2026 · 3.81 FIP	22	SP	3.81	22.3%	9.0%	2.6%	.297	4.81	21.5%	10.4%	364	+1.00	3.81	527	84
Adrian Florencio R 2026 · 2.95 FIP	22	SP	2.95	22.0%	9.0%	1.0%	.270	6.03	16.2%	2.5%	58	+3.08	2.95	153	84
Drew Anderson R 2026 · 3.54 FIP	22	SP	3.54	21.1%	9.2%	1.9%	.295	4.74	16.3%	7.6%	273	+1.20	3.11	506	83
Austin Cates R 2026 · 3.75 FIP	22	SP	3.75	19.7%	9.0%	2.1%	.266	5.12	17.3%	3.2%	73	+1.37	3.75	183	83
David Davalillo R 2026 · 2.94 FIP	22	SP	2.94	23.3%	7.4%	1.6%	.244	4.95	20.5%	6.2%	45	+2.01	2.94	279	83
Brandon Young R 2026 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.5%	12.3%	2.7%	.297	3.46	22.4%	14.1%	150	-0.61	3.11	420	83
Ben Gross R 2028 · 4.20 FIP	24	SP-	4.20	23.0%	8.8%	3.5%	.359	4.87	17.6%	2.0%	22	+0.67	4.20	118	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	14	140	24.8%	8.4%	1.17	4.06
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86
Kyle Gibson ('24)	10	164	19.6%	8.3%	1.14	4.46
Rich Hill ('23)	9	104	25.0%	8.0%	1.12	3.65
Alex Wood ('24)	9	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Joe Musgrove ('24)	9	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73