Michael Forret — OGILVIE

Michael Forret P Norfolk Tides

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 190 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 2.3 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION116 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108100vR 92

ERA3.96

FIP3.96

K%24.8%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%15.7%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 123 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$54M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5555

CTRL4550

CMD5560

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$8M	+$7M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.8	$12M	+$12M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.1	$13M	+$13M
2030	Arb-1	$8M	+2.3	$14M	+$8M
2031	Arb-2	$12M	+2.3	$13M	+$5M
2032	Arb-3	$17M	+2.1	$11M	+$2M
Totals		$40M		$71M	+$47M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	17	100	431	124	44	8	65%	3.8	21.8%	11.8%	10.0%	2.3%	3.88	4.00	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	17	100	431	124	44	8	65%	3.8	21.8%	11.8%	10.0%	2.3%	3.88	4.00	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	17	100	431	124	44	8	65%	3.8	28.8%	10.2%	18.6%	1.9%	3.88	2.98	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	18	74	282	91	21	3	95%	3.9	25.1%	8.5%	16.6%	1.1%	1.58	2.65	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	18	74	282	91	21	3	95%	3.9	25.1%	8.5%	16.6%	1.1%	1.58	2.65	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	18	74	282	91	21	3	95%	3.9	32.3%	7.4%	24.8%	1.1%	1.58	2.02	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	24	23	116	492	125	54	10	96%	4.8	20.9%	10.8%	10.1%	2.4%	3.89	4.00	—
YTD	22	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	24	23	116	492	125	54	10	96%	4.8	20.9%	10.8%	10.1%	2.4%	3.89	4.00	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	AA RAW	BAL	10	10	54	211	56	22	6	100%	5.4	26.5%	10.4%	16.1%	2.8%	2.15	3.74	—
2026	22	AAA RAW	BAL	14	13	61	281	69	32	4	93%	4.4	24.6%	11.4%	13.2%	1.4%	5.43	3.25	—
ROS	22	MLB MLE	BAL	1	1	8	32	8	3	1	100%	7.6	24.8%	9.1%	15.7%	2.6%	3.96	3.96	+0.1
2026 TOT	22	MLB MLE	BAL	—	—	123	524	133	57	11	—	—	25.4%	10.9%	14.5%	2.1%	3.89	3.99	+1.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	BAL	28	28	152	640	162	53	16	100%	5.4	25.3%	8.3%	17.0%	2.6%	3.88	3.81	+2.0
2028	24	MLB MLE	BAL	31	31	175	739	189	58	19	100%	5.6	25.6%	7.8%	17.8%	2.6%	3.80	3.73	+2.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	BAL	30	30	177	748	193	57	19	100%	5.9	25.8%	7.6%	18.2%	2.6%	3.74	3.68	+2.6
2030	26	MLB MLE	BAL	30	30	177	748	194	56	19	100%	5.9	25.9%	7.5%	18.4%	2.6%	3.70	3.67	+2.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	BAL	29	29	174	737	191	56	19	100%	6.0	25.9%	7.6%	18.3%	2.6%	3.71	3.71	+2.5
2032	28	MLB MLE	BAL	28	28	169	715	184	55	20	100%	6.0	25.8%	7.8%	18.0%	2.7%	3.76	3.79	+2.3
2033	29	MLB MLE	BAL	27	27	162	683	174	55	20	100%	6.0	25.5%	8.0%	17.6%	2.9%	3.86	3.92	+1.9
2034	30	MLB MLE	BAL	25	25	152	642	162	53	20	100%	6.1	25.2%	8.3%	16.9%	3.1%	4.00	4.10	+1.4
2035	31	MLB MLE	BAL	24	24	142	598	148	52	20	100%	5.9	24.8%	8.6%	16.2%	3.3%	4.18	4.30	+1.0
2036	32	MLB MLE	BAL	22	22	131	554	135	50	20	100%	6.0	24.3%	9.0%	15.3%	3.6%	4.39	4.53	+0.6
2037	33	MLB MLE	BAL	20	20	120	508	121	48	20	100%	6.0	23.8%	9.5%	14.4%	3.8%	4.62	4.78	+0.2
2038	34	MLB MLE	BAL	18	18	110	462	108	46	19	100%	6.1	23.3%	10.0%	13.3%	4.1%	4.88	5.05	-0.2
2027	23	MLB CTX	BAL	15	15	82	346	87	29	9	100%	5.5	25.3%	8.3%	17.0%	2.7%	3.94	3.87	+1.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	BAL	23	23	127	536	137	42	14	100%	5.5	25.6%	7.8%	17.8%	2.7%	3.86	3.79	+1.8
2029	25	MLB CTX	BAL	25	25	146	616	159	47	17	100%	5.8	25.8%	7.6%	18.2%	2.7%	3.80	3.74	+2.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	BAL	26	26	156	659	171	50	18	100%	6.0	25.9%	7.5%	18.4%	2.7%	3.76	3.73	+2.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	BAL	26	26	158	667	173	51	18	100%	6.1	25.9%	7.6%	18.3%	2.8%	3.78	3.78	+2.3
2032	28	MLB CTX	BAL	26	26	156	659	170	51	19	100%	6.0	25.8%	7.8%	18.0%	2.9%	3.83	3.86	+2.1
2033	29	MLB CTX	BAL	25	25	151	638	163	51	19	100%	6.0	25.5%	8.0%	17.6%	3.0%	3.93	3.99	+1.8
2034	30	MLB CTX	BAL	24	24	143	604	152	50	20	100%	6.0	25.2%	8.3%	16.9%	3.2%	4.08	4.18	+1.4
2035	31	MLB CTX	BAL	22	22	135	570	141	49	20	100%	6.1	24.8%	8.6%	16.2%	3.5%	4.26	4.38	+1.0
2036	32	MLB CTX	BAL	21	21	125	528	128	48	20	100%	6.0	24.3%	9.0%	15.3%	3.7%	4.48	4.62	+0.5
2037	33	MLB CTX	BAL	19	19	114	481	115	46	19	100%	6.0	23.8%	9.5%	14.4%	4.0%	4.71	4.87	+0.2
2038	34	MLB CTX	BAL	16	16	99	418	97	42	18	100%	6.2	23.3%	10.0%	13.3%	4.3%	4.98	5.15	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		269	269	1593	6724	1694	555	211	100%	5.9	25.2%	8.2%	17.0%	3.1%	4.08	3.74	+22.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	213	70	26	100%	5.9	25.2%	8.2%	17.0%	3.1%	4.08	3.74	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		69	58	289	1205	267	128	24	84%	4.2	22.2%	10.6%	11.6%	2.0%	3.30	3.68	+19.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	40	200	833	185	88	17	84%	4.2	22.2%	10.6%	11.6%	2.0%	3.30	3.68	+2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael Forret (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.96	24.8%	9.1%	2.6%	—	3.74	25.6%	17.7%	504	-0.22	—	—	—
Cade Horton R 2023 · 3.22 FIP	21	SP	3.22	26.0%	8.8%	2.2%	.273	3.60	21.6%	13.8%	181	+0.38	3.22	270	87
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	87
Kyle Brnovich R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP	3.95	25.1%	7.5%	3.7%	.256	5.54	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.59	3.95	338	86
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	86
Cory Lewis R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	22	SP	3.43	21.7%	9.3%	1.8%	.267	5.06	21.6%	7.5%	229	+1.63	3.43	330	85
Cody Morris R 2019 · 3.73 FIP	22	SP	3.73	21.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.362	2.85	31.1%	20.9%	96	-0.88	2.23	256	85
Adrian Florencio R 2021 · 3.08 FIP	22	SP	3.08	22.0%	9.0%	1.3%	.270	6.58	16.2%	2.5%	58	+3.50	3.08	153	85
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.32	19.2%	6.3%	244	+0.98	4.34	382	85
Griffin Canning R 2018 · 3.69 FIP	22	SP	3.69	21.8%	10.0%	2.1%	.312	4.19	23.9%	15.3%	225	+0.50	3.60	801	85
Garrett Burhenn R 2022 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP	4.40	21.1%	7.7%	3.8%	.333	4.37	16.9%	8.8%	341	-0.03	4.30	433	85
Mason Black R 2022 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP	3.95	22.3%	9.0%	2.9%	.297	4.67	20.7%	10.8%	364	+0.72	3.95	567	85
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.25	19.8%	10.6%	240	+0.00	4.16	350	84
Brandon Bailey R 2017 · 3.54 FIP	22	SP-	3.54	24.6%	9.9%	2.3%	.290	4.44	21.2%	9.6%	215	+0.90	3.54	306	84
Ben Gross R 2021 · 4.05 FIP	24	SP-	4.05	23.0%	8.8%	3.2%	.359	4.85	17.6%	2.0%	22	+0.80	4.05	118	84
Mike Vasil R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	22	SP	3.63	21.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.264	4.56	18.5%	9.7%	359	+0.93	3.63	429	84
Colin Peluse R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	20.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.299	5.51	14.8%	7.1%	236	+1.31	3.05	420	83
Luis Ortiz R 2021 · 3.06 FIP	22	SP	3.06	22.2%	8.8%	1.3%	.335	4.55	19.0%	10.0%	409	+1.49	3.06	585	83
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	83
Carson Spiers R 2021 · 3.78 FIP	23	SP-	3.78	22.2%	8.8%	2.6%	.284	4.70	19.4%	10.5%	355	+0.92	3.71	511	82
Drew Anderson R 2016 · 3.37 FIP	22	SP	3.37	21.1%	9.2%	1.6%	.295	4.71	16.3%	7.6%	273	+1.34	2.95	547	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9.7	149	25.2%	8.3%	1.14	3.99
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36