Carson Spiers
P
Louisville Bats
+0.0
WAR
Age 28
RHP
6'3" / 205 lbs
AAA
ERA5.11
FIP4.72
xFIP5.60
SIERA5.21
K%20.0%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%11.0%
IP54
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
STUF4040
CTRL5555
CMD4545
K†4040
FB Velo
p1892.2
Whiff%
p3122.6%
K%
p2318.3%
xwOBA vs
p100.405
CH (22%)
CT (19%)
SI (22%)
SL-1.4 (23%)
FB-1.4 (36%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 25 | 20 | 112 | 448 | 130 | 34 | 9 | 22.2% | 8.8% | 2.6% | 3.55 | 3.78 | +1.9 |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 27 | 23 | 122 | 542 | 105 | 45 | 27 | 15.9% | 9.1% | 5.9% | 5.33 | 6.13 | -1.1 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 33 | 11 | 98 | 433 | 118 | 47 | 7 | 22.9% | 11.9% | 1.9% | 4.04 | 3.70 | +1.8 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 31 | 18 | 137 | 603 | 129 | 42 | 22 | 20.4% | 7.1% | 3.2% | 4.46 | 4.04 | +2.0 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 8 | 7 | 32 | 149 | 26 | 18 | 5 | 14.9% | 13.3% | 3.7% | 5.57 | 5.59 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 54 | — | 54 | 228 | 40 | 21 | 8 | 17.5% | 9.2% | 3.4% | 5.30 | 5.03 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 38 | 21 | 8 | 17.1% | 9.3% | 3.5% | 5.19 | 5.11 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 51 | — | 51 | 216 | 36 | 20 | 8 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 3.5% | 5.20 | 5.20 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 49 | — | 49 | 208 | 33 | 20 | 7 | 15.9% | 9.5% | 3.6% | 5.26 | 5.30 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 47 | — | 47 | 200 | 31 | 19 | 7 | 15.3% | 9.7% | 3.7% | 5.36 | 5.42 | -0.3 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 45 | — | 45 | 191 | 28 | 19 | 7 | 14.6% | 9.8% | 3.8% | 5.47 | 5.55 | -0.3 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | CIN | 43 | — | 43 | 181 | 25 | 18 | 7 | 13.9% | 10.0% | 3.9% | 5.60 | 5.69 | -0.4 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | CIN | 40 | — | 40 | 171 | 23 | 18 | 7 | 13.2% | 10.3% | 4.0% | 5.74 | 5.84 | -0.4 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | CIN | 38 | — | 38 | 160 | 20 | 17 | 7 | 12.4% | 10.5% | 4.1% | 5.90 | 6.00 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 124 | 79 | 501 | 2175 | 430 | 203 | 76 | 19.8% | 9.3% | 3.5% | 4.46 | 4.54 | +4.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 32 | 200 | 868 | 172 | 81 | 30 | 19.8% | 9.3% | 3.5% | 4.46 | 4.54 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carson Spiers (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.03 | 17.5% | 9.2% | 3.4% | — | 5.20 | 16.5% | 7.1% | 153 | +0.17 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.78 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .297 | 3.85 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.85 | 102 | 78 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.82 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .275 | 6.70 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +1.88 | 3.88 | 180 | 75 |
| Luis Mateo R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.58 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.8% | .309 | 5.45 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +0.87 | 3.47 | 160 | 74 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2027 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | .241 | 3.99 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.34 | 3.47 | 149 | 74 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2028 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 74 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.38 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.82 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.44 | 4.38 | 101 | 74 |
| Eder Llamas R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.85 | 12.3% | 8.8% | 3.1% | .261 | 3.65 | 11.3% | 4.6% | 120 | -1.20 | 3.23 | 171 | 73 |
| Vinny Nittoli R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.20 | 19.0% | 6.9% | 3.3% | .302 | 3.84 | 26.9% | 20.4% | 93 | -0.36 | 3.68 | 331 | 73 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.01 | 17.2% | 8.8% | 2.3% | .309 | 4.10 | 21.2% | 13.3% | 48 | +0.09 | 3.18 | 253 | 72 |
| A.J. Schugel R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.96 | 20.1% | 8.1% | 2.8% | .307 | 6.39 | 17.6% | 10.6% | 13 | +2.43 | 2.85 | 299 | 72 |
| David Goforth R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.10 | 13.6% | 10.2% | 3.4% | .282 | 4.07 | 14.1% | 5.5% | 68 | -1.03 | 4.06 | 256 | 72 |
| Ryan Doolittle R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.38 | 13.9% | 7.1% | 2.8% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 101 | 72 |
| Ramon Delgado R 2027 · 4.66 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.66 | 13.8% | 5.9% | 3.6% | .332 | 4.35 | 11.2% | 7.2% | 74 | -0.31 | 4.35 | 135 | 72 |
| Alex Cobb R 2026 · 5.17 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.17 | 14.0% | 6.9% | 4.3% | .366 | 4.43 | 16.3% | 10.7% | 344 | -0.74 | 2.72 | 844 | 72 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.1% | .265 | 3.87 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.98 | 3.45 | 315 | 72 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 17.9% | 12.5% | 3.1% | .450 | 3.38 | 18.0% | 9.1% | 85 | -1.47 | 3.01 | 115 | 71 |
| Mike Adams R 2025 · 5.39 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.39 | 17.1% | 11.2% | 4.2% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 109 | 71 |
| Beck Wheeler R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.38 | 15.3% | 12.2% | 3.7% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 173 | 71 |
| Tyler Mizenko R 2024 · 5.14 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.14 | 13.3% | 10.2% | 3.4% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 104 | 71 |
| Jose Casilla R 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.65 | 13.0% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 104 | 71 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.