Carson Spiers — OGILVIE

Carson Spiers P Louisville Bats

Age 28 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION18 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA4.99

FIP5.05

K%17.2%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%8.4%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1892.2

Whiff%

p3122.6%

p2318.3%

xwOBA vs

p100.405

CH (22%)

CT (19%)

SI (22%)

SL-1.4 (23%)

FB-1.4 (36%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	20	112	448	130	34	9	80%	4.5	22.2%	8.8%	13.4%	2.6%	3.55	3.78	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	20	112	448	130	34	9	80%	4.5	29.0%	7.6%	21.4%	2.0%	3.55	2.73	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	23	122	542	105	45	27	85%	4.5	15.9%	9.1%	6.8%	5.8%	5.33	6.11	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	23	122	542	105	45	27	85%	4.5	19.4%	8.3%	11.1%	5.0%	5.33	5.37	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	11	98	433	118	47	7	33%	3.0	22.9%	11.9%	11.0%	1.9%	4.04	3.71	+1.0
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	11	98	433	118	47	7	33%	3.0	22.9%	11.9%	11.0%	1.9%	4.04	3.71	+1.0
2023	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	33	11	98	433	118	47	7	33%	3.0	27.3%	10.9%	16.4%	1.6%	4.04	3.06	+1.8
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	18	137	603	129	42	22	58%	4.4	20.0%	6.7%	13.3%	3.4%	4.46	4.13	+1.3
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	18	137	603	129	42	22	58%	4.4	20.0%	6.7%	13.3%	3.4%	4.46	4.13	+1.3
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	18	137	603	129	42	22	58%	4.4	21.4%	7.0%	14.4%	3.6%	4.46	4.22	+1.1
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	8	7	32	149	26	18	5	88%	4.0	14.5%	12.2%	2.3%	3.8%	5.57	5.48	-0.2
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	8	7	32	149	26	18	5	88%	4.0	14.5%	12.2%	2.3%	3.8%	5.57	5.48	-0.2
2025	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	8	7	32	149	26	18	5	88%	4.0	17.4%	12.1%	5.4%	3.4%	5.57	5.17	-0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			29	14	117	534	103	41	24	48%	4.0	19.3%	7.7%	11.6%	4.5%	5.69	5.06	-0.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	4	4	18	75	21	5	4	100%	4.5	23.5%	7.5%	16.0%	5.5%	4.50	5.08	—
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	4	4	18	75	21	5	4	100%	4.5	23.5%	7.5%	16.0%	5.5%	4.50	5.08	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	A+ RAW	CIN	1	1	4	15	4	0	1	100%	3.7	26.7%	0.0%	26.7%	6.7%	4.91	4.51	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	CIN	3	3	14	60	17	5	3	100%	4.8	28.3%	8.3%	20.0%	5.0%	4.40	4.51	—
ROS	28	MLB MLE	CIN	1	1	5	23	4	2	1	100%	5.4	17.2%	8.8%	8.4%	3.5%	4.99	5.05	-0.0
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	CIN	—	—	23	98	25	7	5	—	—	25.5%	7.2%	18.3%	4.9%	4.61	5.08	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	CIN	9	9	57	240	40	22	9	100%	6.3	16.6%	9.0%	7.6%	3.6%	5.12	5.21	-0.2
2028	30	MLB MLE	CIN	9	9	53	225	36	21	9	100%	5.9	15.9%	9.3%	6.6%	3.8%	5.30	5.41	-0.3
2027	29	MLB CTX	CIN	3	3	21	89	15	8	3	100%	7.0	16.6%	9.0%	7.6%	3.6%	5.12	5.21	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	CIN	5	5	29	122	19	11	5	100%	5.8	15.9%	9.3%	6.6%	3.8%	5.30	5.41	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		37	22	168	749	138	61	32	59%	4.5	18.4%	8.1%	10.3%	4.3%	5.55	4.92	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		45	27	200	892	164	73	38	60%	4.5	18.4%	8.1%	10.3%	4.3%	5.55	4.92	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		128	83	519	2250	445	204	82	65%	4.1	19.8%	9.1%	10.7%	3.6%	4.46	4.58	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	32	200	867	171	79	32	65%	4.1	19.8%	9.1%	10.7%	3.6%	4.46	4.58	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carson Spiers (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.05	17.2%	8.8%	3.5%	—	5.31	16.3%	7.1%	110	+0.26	—	—	—
Kris Medlen R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	29	SP-	4.82	15.4%	6.4%	4.0%	.261	5.17	17.1%	8.6%	173	+0.35	4.59	261	67
Brady Rodgers R 2019 · 5.44 FIP	28	SP-	5.44	14.7%	9.0%	4.4%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	1.98	354	67
Matt Cain R 2015 · 4.88 FIP	30	SP-	4.88	17.1%	6.8%	4.3%	.296	4.87	15.2%	7.6%	214	-0.01	4.82	294	67
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	66
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	66
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	66
Tyler Cloyd R 2016 · 3.89 FIP	29	SP-	3.89	17.6%	12.4%	1.3%	.211	4.86	16.9%	9.7%	230	+0.97	3.89	250	66
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	66
Chi Chi González R 2020 · 4.61 FIP	28	SP-	4.61	17.6%	11.0%	2.9%	.306	4.85	13.5%	6.9%	327	+0.24	4.01	800	66
Alex Cobb R 2016 · 5.26 FIP	28	SP	5.26	14.0%	6.9%	4.5%	.366	4.37	16.3%	10.7%	344	-0.89	2.74	844	65
Max Beatty R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	26	SP-	3.88	13.2%	6.4%	2.0%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	3.88	117	65
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	65
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.85 FIP	27	SP-	5.85	13.9%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	65
Vanny Valenzuela R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	28	SP	4.54	16.3%	11.3%	2.5%	.380	6.25	10.9%	1.2%	25	+1.71	3.26	118	65
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	65
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	64
Justin Masterson R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	30	SP-	4.10	18.2%	10.5%	2.2%	.307	3.73	17.3%	6.4%	196	-0.37	3.50	269	64
Jair Jurrjens R 2015 · 4.59 FIP	29	SP-	4.59	10.3%	6.9%	2.7%	.365	4.27	16.3%	8.4%	54	-0.32	4.27	125	64
Ariel Peña R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	22.5%	12.0%	2.3%	.304	6.07	19.9%	-5.7%	21	+2.08	3.74	223	63
Bradin Hagens R 2018 · 4.92 FIP	29	SP-	4.92	14.9%	9.9%	3.3%	.341	5.46	13.2%	0.6%	66	+0.54	3.79	254	63

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	57	16.6%	9.0%	1.41	5.13
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41