Carson Spiers

P Louisville Bats

Age 29 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX2 levels	31	18	137	4.46	4.22	21.4%	7.0%	1.9	K 20.3% · BB 6.7% · FIP 4.11
2025	27	MIX3 levels	8	7	32	5.57	5.17	17.4%	12.1%	0.1	K 14.7% · BB 12.2% · FIP 5.46
2026	28	MIX3 levels	7	5	30	4.50	4.67	29.8%	4.1%	0.3	K 27.3% · BB 5.5% · FIP 3.70
2027PROJ	29	MLBCIN	9	9	58	4.82	4.85	18.6%	8.2%	0.4
2028PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBCIN	7	7	44	4.96	5.06	17.9%	8.5%	0.2
2029PROJ95% MLB	31	MLBCIN	6	6	36	5.16	5.29	17.2%	8.8%	0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.2 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

K%23

FB Velo18

xwOBA vs10

CompsZack Segovia (age 32) · Travis Smith (age 29) · Zach Stewart (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.82

FIP4.85

K%18.6%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%10.5%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1892.2

Whiff%

p3122.6%

p2318.3%

xwOBA vs

p100.405

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	20	112	448	130	34	9	80%	4.5	22.2%	8.8%	13.4%	2.6%	3.55	3.78	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	20	112	448	130	34	9	80%	4.5	29.0%	7.6%	21.4%	2.0%	3.55	2.73	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	23	122	542	105	45	27	85%	4.5	15.9%	9.1%	6.8%	5.8%	5.33	6.11	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	23	122	542	105	45	27	85%	4.5	19.4%	8.3%	11.1%	5.0%	5.33	5.37	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	11	98	433	118	47	7	33%	3.0	22.9%	11.9%	11.0%	1.9%	4.04	3.71	+1.0
2023	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	33	11	98	433	118	47	7	33%	3.0	27.3%	10.9%	16.4%	1.6%	4.04	3.06	+1.8
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	18	137	603	129	42	22	58%	4.4	20.3%	6.7%	13.5%	3.4%	4.46	4.11	+2.1
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	18	137	603	129	42	22	58%	4.4	20.3%	6.7%	13.5%	3.4%	4.46	4.11	+2.1
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	18	137	603	129	42	22	58%	4.4	21.4%	7.0%	14.4%	3.6%	4.46	4.22	+1.9
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	8	7	32	149	26	18	5	88%	4.0	14.7%	12.2%	2.6%	3.8%	5.57	5.46	-0.0
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	8	7	32	149	26	18	5	88%	4.0	14.7%	12.2%	2.6%	3.8%	5.57	5.46	-0.0
2025	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	8	7	32	149	26	18	5	88%	4.0	17.4%	12.1%	5.4%	3.4%	5.57	5.17	+0.1
2026	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	7	5	30	121	36	5	8	71%	4.3	27.3%	5.5%	21.8%	4.0%	4.50	3.70	+0.6
2026	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	7	5	30	121	36	5	8	71%	4.3	27.3%	5.5%	21.8%	4.0%	4.50	3.70	+0.6
2026	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	7	5	30	121	36	5	8	71%	4.3	29.8%	4.1%	25.6%	6.6%	4.50	4.67	+0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			31	14	123	558	109	41	28	45%	4.0	19.5%	7.3%	12.2%	5.0%	5.78	5.29	-1.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	CIN	9	9	58	245	46	20	9	100%	6.4	18.6%	8.2%	10.5%	3.5%	4.82	4.85	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	CIN	7	7	46	195	35	17	7	100%	6.6	17.9%	8.5%	9.5%	3.7%	4.96	5.06	+0.2
2029	31	MLB MLE	CIN	6	6	38	158	27	14	6	100%	6.2	17.2%	8.8%	8.4%	3.9%	5.16	5.29	+0.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	CIN	7	7	44	186	33	16	7	100%	6.3	17.9%	8.5%	9.5%	3.7%	4.96	5.06	+0.2
2029	31	MLB CTX	CIN	6	6	36	152	26	13	6	100%	6.0	17.2%	8.8%	8.4%	3.9%	5.16	5.29	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		44	27	203	894	168	70	41	61%	4.6	18.8%	7.8%	11.0%	4.6%	5.49	5.00	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		43	26	200	883	166	69	40	61%	4.6	18.8%	7.8%	11.0%	4.6%	5.49	5.00	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		131	84	531	2296	462	205	82	64%	4.1	20.1%	8.9%	11.2%	3.6%	4.46	4.51	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	32	200	865	174	77	31	64%	4.1	20.1%	8.9%	11.2%	3.6%	4.46	4.51	+0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALouisville Bats · 20 IPFIP 3.20 → 3.70 (+0.50)K% 31.7% → 27.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.71%	—	×0.860	27.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.10%	—	×0.900	5.49%
HR / BF /BF	3.66%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.02%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.20 → 3.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAALouisville Bats · 17 IPFIP 5.08 → 5.37 (+0.29)K% 13.9% → 12.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.92%	—	×0.860	11.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.92%	—	×0.900	12.53%
HR / BF /BF	2.53%	÷0.901	×1.100	3.09%

Result: FIP 5.08 → 5.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAALouisville Bats · 47 IPFIP 2.51 → 2.71 (+0.20)K% 25.4% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.39%	—	×0.860	21.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.77%	—	×0.900	6.99%
HR / BF /BF	1.04%	÷1.111	×1.100	1.03%

Result: FIP 2.51 → 2.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 83 IPFIP 2.94 → 3.71 (+0.77)K% 29.2% → 23.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.20%	—	×0.810	23.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.02%	—	×1.100	12.12%
HR / BF /BF	1.65%	÷1.017	×1.200	1.95%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 2.94 → 3.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 105 IPFIP 5.39 → 6.41 (+1.03)K% 19.6% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.57%	—	×0.810	15.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.48%	—	×1.100	9.33%
HR / BF /BF	5.22%	÷0.990	×1.200	6.32%

Result: FIP 5.39 → 6.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAALouisville Bats · 17 IPFIP 4.49 → 4.44 (−0.05)K% 18.3% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.29%	—	×0.880	16.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.32%	—	×1.050	7.68%
HR / BF /BF	3.66%	÷1.282	×1.100	3.14%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 156).

Result: FIP 4.49 → 4.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Dayton Dragons · 89 IPFIP 2.92 → 4.00 (+1.08)K% 28.6% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.61%	—	×0.770	22.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.06%	—	×1.150	9.26%
HR / BF /BF	2.22%	÷0.960	×1.250	2.89%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 2.92 → 4.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ADaytona Tortugas · 23 IPFIP 1.85 → 2.87 (+1.02)K% 30.7% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.68%	—	×0.740	22.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.68%	—	×1.180	6.70%
HR / BF /BF	1.14%	÷0.969	×1.300	1.52%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 1.85 → 2.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carson Spiers (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.85	18.6%	8.2%	3.5%	—	5.16	17.6%	9.0%	84	+0.31	—	—	—
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	68
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	67
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	67
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	64
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	63
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	63
Ross Ohlendorf R 2012 · 4.60 FIP	29	SP-	4.60	16.7%	10.3%	2.9%	.337	3.67	20.8%	14.6%	116	-0.93	3.30	617	63
Daulton Jefferies R 2024 · 5.05 FIP	28	SP-	5.05	15.0%	7.1%	4.2%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.23	265	63
Seth Greisinger R 2004 · 5.38 FIP	29	SP-	5.38	15.5%	6.0%	5.1%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	4.53	219	62
Ariel Peña R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	22.5%	12.0%	2.3%	.304	6.07	19.9%	-5.7%	21	+2.08	3.74	223	61
Chris Heston R 2017 · 5.88 FIP	29	SP-	5.88	13.6%	10.0%	4.9%	.368	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	321	61
Ariel Prieto R 2000 · 4.24 FIP	30	SP-	4.24	12.8%	8.8%	2.0%	.345	—	—	—	—	—	4.05	340	61
Jon Leicester R 2007 · 4.44 FIP	28	SP-	4.44	11.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	61
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	61
Bradin Hagens R 2018 · 4.92 FIP	29	SP-	4.92	14.9%	9.9%	3.3%	.341	5.46	13.2%	0.6%	66	+0.54	3.79	254	60
Beau Sulser R 2023 · 5.21 FIP	29	SP-	5.21	13.3%	5.3%	4.7%	.285	6.15	16.3%	10.0%	68	+0.94	2.61	463	60
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	60
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.83 FIP	27	SP-	5.83	14.2%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	60
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	59
Hiram Burgos R 2017 · 4.94 FIP	29	SP	4.94	19.3%	7.5%	4.6%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	384	59

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	67	18.7%	7.9%	1.66	5.33
Steve Shields ('85-'89, -3 WAR*)	1.1	55	17.0%*	9.0%*	1.61*	5.49*
JC Ramírez ('19)	1.4	72	16.4%	8.4%	1.44	4.71
Buddy Carlyle ('15)	1.5	58	18.5%	8.5%	1.32	5.14
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.3	53	23.0%	8.3%	1.61	5.21
Paul Reuschel ('75-'79, 1 WAR*)	2.0	79	16.8%*	7.6%*	1.29*	4.76*
Chuck Hartenstein ('66-'77, -1 WAR*)	1.5	59	13.7%*	7.2%*	1.50*	5.28*