Carson Spiers
P
Louisville Bats
Age 28
RHP
6'3" / 205 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 59 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134125vR 116
ERA5.02
FIP5.11
K%17.4%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%8.2%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1892.2
Whiff%
p3122.6%
K%
p2318.3%
xwOBA vs
p100.405
CH (22%)
CT (19%)
SI (22%)
SL-1.4 (23%)
FB-1.4 (36%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 20 | 112 | 448 | 130 | 34 | 9 | 80% | 4.5 | 22.2% | 8.8% | 13.4% | 2.7% | 3.55 | 3.84 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 20 | 112 | 448 | 130 | 34 | 9 | 80% | 4.5 | 29.0% | 7.6% | 21.4% | 2.0% | 3.55 | 2.73 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 23 | 122 | 542 | 105 | 45 | 27 | 85% | 4.5 | 15.9% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.33 | 6.10 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 23 | 122 | 542 | 105 | 45 | 27 | 85% | 4.5 | 19.4% | 8.3% | 11.1% | 5.0% | 5.33 | 5.37 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 33 | 11 | 98 | 433 | 118 | 47 | 7 | 33% | 3.0 | 22.9% | 11.9% | 11.0% | 1.9% | 4.04 | 3.69 | +1.9 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 33 | 11 | 98 | 433 | 118 | 47 | 7 | 33% | 3.0 | 27.3% | 10.9% | 16.4% | 1.6% | 4.04 | 3.06 | +2.6 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 18 | 137 | 603 | 129 | 42 | 22 | 58% | 4.4 | 20.4% | 7.1% | 13.3% | 3.4% | 4.46 | 4.16 | +2.0 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 18 | 137 | 603 | 129 | 42 | 22 | 58% | 4.4 | 21.4% | 7.0% | 14.4% | 3.6% | 4.46 | 4.22 | +1.9 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 8 | 7 | 32 | 149 | 26 | 18 | 5 | 88% | 4.0 | 14.9% | 13.3% | 1.5% | 4.0% | 5.57 | 5.74 | -0.4 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 8 | 7 | 32 | 149 | 26 | 18 | 5 | 88% | 4.0 | 17.4% | 12.1% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 5.57 | 5.17 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 10 | 10 | 60 | 251 | 44 | 23 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.4% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 5.02 | 5.11 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 9 | 9 | 57 | 240 | 40 | 23 | 9 | 100% | 6.3 | 16.8% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 3.7% | 5.17 | 5.27 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 9 | 9 | 53 | 225 | 36 | 22 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.1% | 9.7% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 5.35 | 5.48 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 3 | 3 | 21 | 89 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 100% | 7.0 | 16.8% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 3.7% | 5.17 | 5.27 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 5 | 5 | 29 | 122 | 20 | 12 | 5 | 100% | 5.8 | 16.1% | 9.7% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 5.35 | 5.48 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 37 | 22 | 167 | 746 | 138 | 61 | 32 | 59% | 4.5 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 4.3% | 5.57 | 4.94 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 26 | 200 | 892 | 165 | 73 | 38 | 60% | 4.5 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 4.3% | 5.57 | 4.94 | +1.1 | ||
| Career | — | 124 | 79 | 501 | 2175 | 430 | 203 | 79 | 64% | 4.0 | 19.8% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 3.6% | 4.46 | 4.59 | +4.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 32 | 200 | 868 | 172 | 81 | 31 | 64% | 4.0 | 19.8% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 3.6% | 4.46 | 4.59 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carson Spiers (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.11 | 17.4% | 9.2% | 3.5% | — | 5.37 | 16.5% | 6.9% | 110 | +0.26 | — | — | — |
| Kris Medlen R 2027 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 67 |
| Brady Rodgers R 2026 · 5.58 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.58 | 14.7% | 9.0% | 4.7% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.98 | 354 | 66 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 66 |
| Aldo Montes R 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.65 | 12.4% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .322 | 4.41 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 75 | -0.24 | 4.41 | 210 | 66 |
| Matt Cain R 2028 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 66 |
| Juan Omar Espinoza R 2029 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.68 | 8.9% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .346 | 4.95 | 8.4% | -0.8% | 52 | +0.27 | 4.68 | 104 | 66 |
| Daulton Jefferies R 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.23 | 15.3% | 8.0% | 4.4% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 265 | 65 |
| Jake Walkinshaw R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.11 | 16.1% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .244 | 3.82 | 15.6% | 4.1% | 68 | -0.29 | 2.20 | 286 | 65 |
| Hector Noesí R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 65 |
| Vanny Valenzuela R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.66 | 16.3% | 11.3% | 2.8% | .380 | 7.26 | 10.9% | 1.2% | 25 | +2.60 | 3.26 | 118 | 65 |
| David Griffin R 2025 · 6.04 FIP | 27 | SP- | 6.04 | 14.5% | 10.3% | 5.2% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.52 | 239 | 64 |
| Nolan Sanburn R 2024 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.25 | 15.0% | 10.4% | 2.0% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 169 | 64 |
| Justin Masterson R 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.06 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .307 | 3.76 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 196 | -0.30 | 3.51 | 269 | 64 |
| Bradin Hagens R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.85 | 14.9% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .341 | 5.33 | 13.2% | 0.6% | 66 | +0.48 | 3.78 | 254 | 64 |
| Alex Cobb R 2026 · 5.20 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.20 | 14.0% | 6.9% | 4.4% | .366 | 4.43 | 16.3% | 10.7% | 344 | -0.77 | 2.78 | 844 | 64 |
| Chi Chi González R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.39 | 17.6% | 11.0% | 2.5% | .306 | 4.76 | 13.7% | 6.8% | 327 | +0.37 | 4.00 | 800 | 64 |
| Miguel Ruiz R 2027 · 6.00 FIP | 29 | SP- | 6.00 | 8.8% | 8.0% | 4.8% | .346 | 5.44 | 10.6% | -0.4% | 53 | -0.56 | 5.44 | 117 | 64 |
| Brian Edgington R 2024 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.05 | 19.3% | 12.3% | 3.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 171 | 63 |
| Darien Smith R 2024 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.67 | 19.0% | 12.9% | 2.8% | .212 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 102 | 63 |
| Orlando Rodriguez R 2025 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.53 | 13.7% | 10.6% | 2.3% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.50 | 119 | 63 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 57 | 16.8% | 9.4% | 1.42 | 5.17 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |