Pat Gallagher — OGILVIE

Pat Gallagher P Buffalo Bisons

Age 26 RHP 6'0" / 196 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 55 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 99

ERA4.34

FIP4.34

K%20.2%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%10.5%

ROS IP55

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	11	63	255	75	18	7	79%	4.5	21.9%	8.3%	13.6%	2.8%	3.13	3.83	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	11	63	255	75	18	7	79%	4.5	21.9%	8.3%	13.6%	2.8%	3.13	3.83	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	11	63	255	75	18	7	79%	4.5	29.4%	7.1%	22.4%	2.7%	3.13	3.02	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	22	21	91	389	83	31	6	95%	4.1	16.4%	9.2%	7.3%	1.8%	4.15	3.87	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	22	21	91	389	83	31	6	95%	4.1	16.4%	9.2%	7.3%	1.8%	4.15	3.87	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Vancouver Canadians	22	21	91	389	83	31	6	95%	4.1	21.3%	8.0%	13.4%	1.5%	4.15	3.15	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	1	76	308	84	28	2	3%	2.0	21.5%	10.3%	11.2%	0.9%	1.90	3.07	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	1	76	308	84	28	2	3%	2.0	21.5%	10.3%	11.2%	0.9%	1.90	3.07	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	1	76	308	84	28	2	3%	2.0	27.3%	9.1%	18.2%	0.6%	1.90	2.33	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	33	2	52	236	72	19	5	6%	1.6	26.0%	7.5%	18.4%	2.4%	6.71	3.19	—
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	33	2	52	236	72	19	5	6%	1.6	26.0%	7.5%	18.4%	2.4%	6.71	3.19	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	TOR	1	0	2	9	1	0	0	0%	2.3	11.1%	0.0%	11.1%	0.0%	0.00	2.16	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	TOR	32	2	50	227	71	19	5	6%	1.6	31.3%	8.4%	22.9%	2.2%	7.02	2.73	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	TOR	77	0	81	341	69	33	9	0%	1.0	20.3%	9.6%	10.8%	2.6%	4.36	4.37	+0.2
2028	28	MLB MLE	TOR	75	0	78	331	74	29	9	0%	1.0	22.4%	8.8%	13.6%	2.7%	4.25	4.18	+0.3
2029	29	MLB MLE	TOR	71	0	75	316	70	28	9	0%	1.1	22.2%	9.0%	13.1%	2.9%	4.29	4.32	+0.2
2030	30	MLB MLE	TOR	67	0	70	297	65	28	9	0%	1.0	21.8%	9.3%	12.5%	3.1%	4.41	4.49	+0.0
2027	27	MLB CTX	TOR	32	0	34	144	29	14	4	0%	1.1	20.3%	9.6%	10.8%	2.6%	4.36	4.37	+0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	TOR	47	0	49	207	46	18	6	0%	1.0	22.4%	8.8%	13.6%	2.7%	4.25	4.18	+0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	TOR	51	0	54	228	51	21	7	0%	1.1	22.2%	9.0%	13.1%	2.9%	4.29	4.32	+0.1
2030	30	MLB CTX	TOR	53	0	56	236	52	22	7	0%	1.1	21.8%	9.3%	12.5%	3.1%	4.41	4.49	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		185	0	194	819	178	75	23	0%	1.0	21.8%	9.1%	12.7%	2.8%	4.33	3.96	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	184	77	24	0%	1.1	21.8%	9.1%	12.7%	2.8%	4.33	3.96	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		107	35	282	1188	247	106	23	33%	2.6	20.8%	8.9%	11.9%	1.9%	3.79	3.52	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		76	25	200	842	175	75	16	33%	2.6	20.8%	8.9%	11.9%	1.9%	3.79	3.52	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Pat Gallagher (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.34	20.2%	9.7%	2.4%	—	4.29	21.6%	12.5%	234	-0.05	—	—	—
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	299	86
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	85
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	85
R.J. Alaniz R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	26	SU	3.91	20.7%	8.9%	2.6%	.318	3.28	23.8%	15.0%	96	-0.63	2.45	362	85
Layne Somsen R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	19.5%	12.5%	1.3%	.265	4.00	19.9%	6.7%	92	+0.26	3.66	154	85
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	84
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	83
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	83
Spencer Stockton R 2022 · 4.18 FIP	26	SU	4.18	20.2%	10.3%	2.7%	.276	5.46	18.7%	6.2%	63	+1.28	1.93	233	82
Calvin Drummond R 2016 · 3.55 FIP	26	SW	3.55	16.9%	11.1%	0.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	112	82
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	82
Joe Navilhon R 2019 · 3.23 FIP	26	SU	3.23	20.5%	7.7%	1.6%	.322	4.28	23.4%	16.7%	99	+1.05	2.25	273	82
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	81
Edwin Quirarte R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	28	SW	3.41	16.7%	6.2%	1.7%	.311	3.48	12.7%	4.9%	83	+0.06	3.16	157	81
Anthony Vizcaya R 2019 · 3.22 FIP	25	SU	3.22	21.9%	10.8%	1.1%	.259	7.20	18.2%	5.5%	13	+3.98	3.22	115	81
Troy Neiman R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	26	SU	4.03	18.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	199	80
Esmil Rogers R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	29	SW	3.51	18.5%	8.9%	1.6%	.348	2.86	21.7%	17.9%	40	-0.65	2.86	199	80
Ariel Peña R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	26	SW	3.74	21.3%	9.5%	2.3%	.300	4.92	19.9%	5.6%	92	+1.18	3.74	223	80
Stephen Kohlscheen R 2015 · 3.83 FIP	26	SU	3.83	15.6%	8.1%	1.9%	.311	3.98	22.8%	15.0%	90	+0.15	2.52	167	80
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	72	21.4%	9.2%	1.05	4.33
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Derek Law ('24)	1.5	60	21.5%	8.9%	0.88	3.47
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21