Pat Gallagher

P Buffalo Bisons

Age 27 RHP 6'0" / 196 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	A+TOR	22	21	91	4.15	3.15	21.3%	8.0%	—	K 16.4% · BB 9.2% · FIP 3.87
2025	25	MIX2 levels	38	1	76	1.90	2.33	27.3%	9.1%	—	K 21.5% · BB 10.3% · FIP 3.07
2026	26	MIX2 levels	33	2	52	6.71	2.68	30.5%	8.1%	—	K 26.9% · BB 7.5% · FIP 3.11
2027PROJ	27	MLBTOR	4	0	4	3.95	3.95	24.5%	8.8%	0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	28	MLBTOR	15	0	16	4.04	4.07	24.3%	8.9%	0.1

Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 1.7, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 92%

CompsColeman Huntley III (age 28) · Wil Jensen (age 26) · Dylan King (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108100vR 92

ERA3.95

FIP3.95

K%24.5%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%15.8%

Proj IP43

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 43 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	11	63	255	75	18	7	79%	4.5	21.9%	8.3%	13.6%	2.8%	3.13	3.83	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	11	63	255	75	18	7	79%	4.5	29.4%	7.1%	22.4%	2.7%	3.13	3.02	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	22	21	91	389	83	31	6	95%	4.1	16.4%	9.2%	7.3%	1.8%	4.15	3.87	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	22	21	91	389	83	31	6	95%	4.1	16.4%	9.2%	7.3%	1.8%	4.15	3.87	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Vancouver Canadians	22	21	91	389	83	31	6	95%	4.1	21.3%	8.0%	13.4%	1.5%	4.15	3.15	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	1	76	308	84	28	2	3%	2.0	21.5%	10.3%	11.2%	0.9%	1.90	3.07	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	1	76	308	84	28	2	3%	2.0	21.5%	10.3%	11.2%	0.9%	1.90	3.07	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	1	76	308	84	28	2	3%	2.0	27.3%	9.1%	18.2%	0.6%	1.90	2.33	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	2	52	236	72	19	5	6%	1.6	26.9%	7.5%	19.4%	2.4%	6.71	3.11	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	2	52	236	72	19	5	6%	1.6	26.9%	7.5%	19.4%	2.4%	6.71	3.11	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	2	52	236	72	19	5	6%	1.6	30.5%	8.1%	22.5%	2.1%	6.71	2.68	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	TOR	4	0	4	17	4	1	0	0%	1.0	24.5%	8.8%	15.8%	2.6%	3.95	3.95	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	TOR	36	0	37	158	38	14	4	0%	1.0	24.3%	8.9%	15.3%	2.8%	4.04	4.07	+0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	TOR	15	0	16	68	16	6	2	0%	1.1	24.3%	8.9%	15.3%	2.8%	4.04	4.07	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		15	0	16	67	16	6	2	0%	1.1	24.3%	8.9%	15.3%	2.8%	4.04	3.69	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	201	75	25	0%	1.1	24.3%	8.9%	15.3%	2.8%	4.04	3.69	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		107	35	282	1188	249	106	23	33%	2.6	21.0%	8.9%	12.1%	1.9%	3.79	3.50	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		76	25	200	842	177	75	16	33%	2.6	21.0%	8.9%	12.1%	1.9%	3.79	3.50	+1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAABuffalo Bisons · 50 IPFIP 2.73 → 3.11 (+0.38)K% 31.3% → 26.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.28%	—	×0.860	26.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.37%	—	×0.900	7.53%
HR / BF /BF	2.20%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.42%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.73 → 3.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Vancouver Canadians · 40 IPFIP 2.00 → 2.77 (+0.77)K% 29.3% → 22.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.30%	—	×0.770	22.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.83%	—	×1.150	12.45%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.855	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 71).

Result: FIP 2.00 → 2.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 36 IPFIP 2.62 → 3.38 (+0.75)K% 25.2% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.17%	—	×0.810	20.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.28%	—	×1.100	8.01%
HR / BF /BF	1.32%	÷0.885	×1.200	1.80%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 77).

Result: FIP 2.62 → 3.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Vancouver Canadians · 91 IPFIP 3.15 → 3.87 (+0.72)K% 21.3% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.34%	—	×0.770	16.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.97%	—	×1.150	9.16%
HR / BF /BF	1.54%	÷1.062	×1.250	1.82%

Result: FIP 3.15 → 3.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ADunedin Blue Jays · 52 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.98 (+0.88)K% 30.7% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.73%	—	×0.740	22.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.80%	—	×1.180	9.21%
HR / BF /BF	2.93%	÷1.279	×1.300	2.98%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 156).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Vancouver Canadians · 11 IPFIP 2.68 → 3.22 (+0.54)K% 24.0% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.00%	—	×0.770	18.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.00%	—	×1.150	4.60%
HR / BF /BF	2.00%	÷1.253	×1.250	1.99%

Result: FIP 2.68 → 3.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Pat Gallagher (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.95	24.5%	8.8%	2.6%	—	4.07	24.3%	15.3%	37	+0.12	—	—	—
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	81
Wil Jensen R 2024 · 3.48 FIP	26	SW	3.48	22.7%	8.4%	2.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	368	77
Dylan King R 2022 · 3.78 FIP	25	SW	3.78	26.7%	9.8%	3.1%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	121	76
Simon Castro R 2015 · 3.28 FIP	27	SU	3.28	26.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.320	3.58	26.0%	17.6%	128	+0.30	3.01	185	76
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	75
Austin Ross R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	27	SU	3.81	22.9%	8.0%	3.0%	.295	3.67	12.4%	5.2%	127	-0.14	3.16	269	75
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	75
Connor Schultz R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	25	SU	3.88	19.7%	5.3%	3.2%	.283	4.02	18.8%	10.4%	156	+0.14	3.53	203	75
Edwin Quirarte R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	28	SW	3.41	16.7%	6.2%	1.7%	.311	3.48	12.7%	4.9%	83	+0.06	3.16	157	75
Trent Harris R 2024 · 3.45 FIP	25	SU	3.45	26.9%	9.5%	2.6%	.258	3.36	24.7%	16.7%	121	-0.09	3.06	198	75
TJ Shook R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	26	SW	4.15	23.7%	8.7%	3.5%	.317	3.92	20.0%	11.1%	107	-0.23	3.35	452	74
Joe Navilhon R 2019 · 3.23 FIP	26	SU	3.23	20.5%	7.7%	1.6%	.322	4.28	23.4%	16.7%	99	+1.05	2.25	273	74
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	74
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	74
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	73
DJ Baxendale R 2018 · 3.49 FIP	27	SW	3.49	18.1%	6.0%	2.1%	.355	5.71	20.0%	8.3%	49	+2.22	2.88	426	73
Heath Holder R 2019 · 3.26 FIP	26	SW	3.26	21.9%	7.5%	1.9%	.263	5.51	19.8%	4.9%	85	+2.25	2.94	367	73
Paxton Schultz R 2024 · 3.83 FIP	26	SW	3.83	24.4%	9.8%	2.8%	.306	4.15	22.5%	15.1%	135	+0.32	3.83	543	72
Jake Stinnett R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	27	SW	4.23	21.1%	12.2%	2.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	356	72
Forrest Snow R 2016 · 3.02 FIP	27	SU	3.02	23.3%	7.5%	1.7%	.292	4.57	21.1%	13.4%	231	+1.55	3.02	406	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	40	24.4%	8.8%	1.04	3.99
David Carpenter ('19)	1.1	43	23.5%	8.4%	0.92	3.69
Charlie Furbush ('15)	1.3	52	24.5%	8.1%	1.04	3.97
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Danny Farquhar ('18)	1.4	54	26.9%	9.2%	0.99	3.93
Mike Schooler ('88-'93, 5 WAR*)	1.5	49	26.9%*	8.0%*	0.96*	3.68*
Ed Vosberg ('86-'02, 1 WAR*)	1.2	47	21.0%*	9.6%*	0.86*	4.06*