Mitch Spence — OGILVIE

Mitch Spence P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 28 RHP 6'1" / 185 lbs AAA ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION83 act + 11 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.45

FIP4.51

K%17.5%

BB%7.0%

K-BB%10.5%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 95 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4040

CT (38%)

SI (17%)

CU (16%)

CH (7%)

SL (20%)

FB-0.6 (18%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	23	20	105	448	118	37	10	87%	4.6	20.3%	9.5%	10.8%	2.8%	3.94	4.12	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	Hudson Valley Renegades	23	20	105	448	118	37	10	87%	4.6	26.3%	8.3%	18.1%	2.2%	3.94	3.15	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	130	564	127	42	17	93%	4.8	18.8%	8.0%	10.8%	3.4%	4.70	4.42	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	25	130	564	127	42	17	93%	4.8	22.5%	7.4%	15.1%	3.0%	4.70	3.81	—
2023	25	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	29	29	163	703	153	53	30	100%	5.6	18.1%	6.8%	11.3%	4.6%	4.47	4.97	—
2023	25	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	29	29	163	703	153	53	30	100%	5.6	18.1%	6.8%	11.3%	4.6%	4.47	4.97	—
2023	25	AAA RAW	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	29	29	163	703	153	53	30	100%	5.6	21.8%	7.5%	14.2%	4.3%	4.47	4.59	—
2024	26	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	35	24	151	651	126	44	20	69%	4.3	19.4%	6.8%	12.6%	3.4%	4.58	4.17	+1.3
2024	26	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	35	24	151	651	126	44	20	69%	4.3	19.4%	6.8%	12.6%	3.4%	4.58	4.17	+1.3
2024	26	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	35	24	151	651	126	44	20	69%	4.3	19.4%	6.8%	12.6%	3.1%	4.58	4.03	+1.6
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	15	114	516	97	36	19	38%	2.8	17.8%	6.7%	11.0%	3.7%	5.38	4.50	+0.1
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	15	114	516	97	36	19	38%	2.8	17.8%	6.7%	11.0%	3.7%	5.38	4.50	+0.1
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	15	114	516	97	36	19	38%	2.8	18.8%	7.0%	11.8%	3.7%	5.38	4.52	+0.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			70	33	245	1082	198	77	39	47%	3.5	18.3%	7.1%	11.2%	3.6%	5.39	4.49	+0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	19	17	83	381	70	31	15	89%	4.4	15.5%	7.6%	8.0%	4.3%	7.13	5.12	—
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	19	17	83	381	70	31	15	89%	4.4	15.5%	7.6%	8.0%	4.3%	7.13	5.12	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AAA RAW	KC	16	16	74	325	64	22	12	100%	4.6	19.7%	6.8%	12.9%	3.7%	5.35	4.32	—
2026	28	MLB RAW	KC	3	1	9	56	6	9	3	33%	3.1	10.7%	16.1%	-5.4%	5.4%	21.21	7.17	—
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	KC	3	1	9	56	6	9	3	33%	3.1	10.7%	16.1%	-5.4%	5.4%	21.21	7.17	—
ROS	28	MLB MLE	KC	2	2	11	48	8	3	2	100%	5.7	17.5%	7.0%	10.5%	3.7%	4.45	4.51	+0.1
ROS	28	MLB CTX	KC	2	2	11	46	8	3	2	100%	5.5	17.5%	7.0%	10.5%	3.7%	4.45	4.51	+0.1
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	KC	—	—	95	429	78	34	17	—	—	18.3%	8.0%	10.3%	3.9%	6.81	5.04	-0.2
FULL	28	MLB A+C	KC	—	—	21	87	78	34	17	—	—	89.7%	39.3%	50.4%	19.2%	31.15	11.03	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	KC	21	21	129	543	88	46	22	100%	6.1	16.2%	8.4%	7.8%	4.0%	5.26	5.35	-0.6
2028	30	MLB MLE	KC	20	20	121	511	79	44	21	100%	6.0	15.5%	8.7%	6.8%	4.2%	5.44	5.56	-0.9
2027	29	MLB CTX	KC	20	20	122	515	83	43	20	100%	6.1	16.2%	8.4%	7.8%	4.0%	5.26	5.35	-0.6
2028	30	MLB CTX	KC	19	19	115	486	75	42	20	100%	6.1	15.5%	8.7%	6.8%	4.2%	5.44	5.56	-0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		112	75	494	2132	365	166	81	67%	4.4	17.1%	7.8%	9.4%	3.8%	5.35	4.74	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		45	30	200	863	148	67	33	67%	4.4	17.1%	7.8%	9.4%	3.8%	5.35	4.74	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		173	130	747	3263	601	243	122	75%	4.3	18.4%	7.5%	11.0%	3.7%	4.89	4.54	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	35	200	874	161	65	33	75%	4.3	18.4%	7.5%	11.0%	3.7%	4.89	4.54	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mitch Spence (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.84	17.9%	6.9%	3.6%	—	5.45	15.9%	7.3%	250	+0.61	—	—	—
Matt Harvey R 2017 · 5.76 FIP	28	SP	5.76	15.5%	10.2%	4.9%	.298	4.71	19.0%	12.0%	249	-1.05	2.90	806	74
Kris Medlen R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	29	SP-	4.82	15.4%	6.4%	4.0%	.261	5.17	17.1%	8.6%	173	+0.35	4.59	261	73
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	72
Mat Latos R 2016 · 4.93 FIP	28	SP-	4.93	13.4%	9.6%	3.2%	.279	5.66	16.8%	5.6%	41	+0.73	3.60	244	71
Jacob Turner R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	27	SP-	4.48	14.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	340	71
Tyler Wilson R 2017 · 4.45 FIP	27	SP-	4.45	12.1%	7.0%	2.7%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	377	71
Nick Tropeano R 2019 · 4.96 FIP	28	SP-	4.96	20.3%	9.2%	4.4%	.336	3.93	22.7%	10.0%	83	-1.03	2.34	446	71
Matt Cain R 2015 · 4.88 FIP	30	SP-	4.88	17.1%	6.8%	4.3%	.296	4.87	15.2%	7.6%	214	-0.01	4.82	294	71
Taylor Jungmann R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	27	SP-	3.88	18.8%	11.1%	1.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	435	70
Colin Rea R 2018 · 5.61 FIP	28	SP	5.61	17.6%	11.3%	4.7%	.344	4.14	17.7%	9.8%	198	-1.47	2.57	1,112	69
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	68
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	68
Omar Bencomo R 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP-	4.50	18.9%	6.3%	4.0%	.333	4.48	14.9%	10.1%	186	-0.02	3.70	381	68
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	4.13	133	68
David Phelps R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP	3.94	16.0%	6.8%	2.4%	.299	2.82	29.9%	20.6%	142	-1.12	2.50	373	67
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.85 FIP	27	SP-	5.85	13.9%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	67
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	67
Chase Anderson R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	18.5%	8.2%	4.1%	.285	4.25	21.3%	13.3%	438	-0.58	3.30	1,146	67
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	67
Matt Koch R 2019 · 5.62 FIP	28	SP-	5.62	14.3%	6.3%	5.3%	.332	4.80	21.0%	11.1%	102	-0.82	3.44	771	66

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	125	16.6%	8.0%	1.52	5.16
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Daniel Mengden ('19)	1.5	73	17.3%	7.7%	1.24	4.68
Yonny Chirinos ('24)	1.7	84	18.9%	6.6%	1.38	4.37