Mitch Spence
P
Omaha Storm Chasers
Age 28
RHP
6'1" / 185 lbs
AAA
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION74 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 104
ERA4.48
FIP4.54
K%17.6%
BB%7.2%
K-BB%10.4%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 139 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
CT (38%)
SI (17%)
CU (16%)
CH (7%)
SL (20%)
FB-0.6 (18%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | 23 | 20 | 105 | 448 | 118 | 37 | 10 | 87% | 4.6 | 20.3% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 2.8% | 3.94 | 4.12 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | 23 | 20 | 105 | 448 | 118 | 37 | 10 | 87% | 4.6 | 26.3% | 8.3% | 18.1% | 2.2% | 3.94 | 3.15 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 25 | 130 | 564 | 127 | 42 | 17 | 93% | 4.8 | 18.8% | 8.0% | 10.8% | 3.4% | 4.70 | 4.38 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 25 | 130 | 564 | 127 | 42 | 17 | 93% | 4.8 | 22.5% | 7.4% | 15.1% | 3.0% | 4.70 | 3.81 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 29 | 29 | 163 | 703 | 153 | 53 | 30 | 100% | 5.6 | 19.2% | 7.9% | 11.2% | 4.5% | 4.47 | 4.98 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 29 | 29 | 163 | 703 | 153 | 53 | 30 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.8% | 7.5% | 14.2% | 4.3% | 4.47 | 4.59 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 35 | 24 | 151 | 651 | 126 | 44 | 20 | 69% | 4.3 | 19.4% | 6.8% | 12.6% | 3.2% | 4.58 | 4.09 | +2.3 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 35 | 24 | 151 | 651 | 126 | 44 | 20 | 69% | 4.3 | 19.4% | 6.8% | 12.6% | 3.1% | 4.58 | 4.03 | +2.4 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 15 | 114 | 516 | 97 | 36 | 19 | 38% | 2.8 | 18.1% | 7.1% | 11.0% | 3.7% | 5.38 | 4.51 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 15 | 114 | 516 | 97 | 36 | 19 | 38% | 2.8 | 18.8% | 7.0% | 11.8% | 3.7% | 5.38 | 4.52 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 17 | 15 | 74 | 337 | 61 | 27 | 14 | 88% | 4.4 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 4.5% | 7.51 | 5.24 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | KC | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 48 | 20 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.6% | 7.2% | 10.4% | 3.7% | 4.48 | 4.54 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | KC | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 48 | 20 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.6% | 7.2% | 10.4% | 3.7% | 4.48 | 4.54 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | KC | — | — | 139 | 611 | 109 | 47 | 24 | — | — | 17.9% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 3.9% | 6.10 | 4.92 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | KC | — | — | 74 | 313 | 109 | 47 | 24 | — | — | 34.9% | 14.9% | 19.9% | 7.7% | 11.44 | 6.26 | -1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | KC | 21 | 21 | 129 | 543 | 88 | 47 | 21 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 3.9% | 5.27 | 5.35 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | KC | 20 | 20 | 121 | 511 | 79 | 45 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 15.5% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 5.44 | 5.56 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | KC | 20 | 20 | 122 | 515 | 83 | 44 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 3.9% | 5.27 | 5.35 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | KC | 19 | 19 | 115 | 486 | 75 | 43 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 15.5% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 5.44 | 5.56 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 123 | 86 | 547 | 2357 | 405 | 184 | 89 | 70% | 4.4 | 17.2% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 3.8% | 5.27 | 4.72 | +4.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 31 | 200 | 861 | 148 | 67 | 33 | 70% | 4.5 | 17.2% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 3.8% | 5.27 | 4.72 | +1.6 | ||
| Career | — | 171 | 128 | 738 | 3219 | 605 | 252 | 119 | 75% | 4.3 | 18.8% | 7.8% | 11.0% | 3.7% | 4.90 | 4.53 | +7.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 35 | 200 | 873 | 164 | 68 | 32 | 75% | 4.3 | 18.8% | 7.8% | 11.0% | 3.7% | 4.90 | 4.53 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Mitch Spence (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.84 | 17.9% | 7.1% | 3.6% | — | 5.45 | 15.8% | 7.1% | 250 | +0.61 | — | — | — |
| Kris Medlen R 2027 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 73 |
| Hector Noesí R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 72 |
| Matt Cain R 2028 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 70 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2027 · 3.93 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .303 | 4.49 | 16.1% | 8.8% | 169 | +0.56 | 3.57 | 283 | 68 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 68 |
| Omar Bencomo R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 18.9% | 6.3% | 3.8% | .333 | 4.43 | 14.9% | 10.1% | 186 | +0.05 | 3.67 | 381 | 67 |
| Jacob Turner R 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.69 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 67 |
| David Phelps R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.83 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.11 | 2.51 | 373 | 67 |
| Yohan Pino R 2029 · 3.95 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.95 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 2.9% | .312 | 5.48 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.53 | 3.95 | 133 | 67 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2028 · 3.84 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.84 | 17.4% | 7.1% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.10 | 15.9% | 8.7% | 305 | +1.26 | 3.84 | 567 | 66 |
| Dylan Axelrod R 2028 · 4.75 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.75 | 14.1% | 6.6% | 3.6% | .304 | 4.43 | 13.7% | 7.4% | 133 | -0.32 | 4.43 | 251 | 66 |
| Frank Batista R 2024 · 4.33 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.33 | 12.1% | 8.2% | 2.2% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 118 | 66 |
| Scott McGregor R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.19 | 11.8% | 7.6% | 2.1% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 107 | 66 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.54 | 12.6% | 5.3% | 3.3% | .289 | 3.95 | 15.5% | 7.0% | 329 | -0.59 | 3.16 | 593 | 65 |
| Luke Irvine R 2025 · 4.17 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.17 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 1.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 104 | 65 |
| Andres Ivan Meza R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.37 | 10.9% | 5.6% | 2.7% | .322 | 4.25 | 12.5% | 4.0% | 85 | -0.12 | 4.25 | 275 | 65 |
| Colin Bates R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.59 | 10.5% | 6.5% | 2.9% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 111 | 65 |
| Jason Berken R 2029 · 4.69 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.69 | 13.5% | 6.6% | 3.5% | .315 | 4.31 | 11.5% | 3.2% | 106 | -0.38 | 4.31 | 219 | 64 |
| Mat Latos R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.94 | 13.4% | 9.6% | 3.2% | .279 | 5.79 | 16.8% | 5.6% | 41 | +0.85 | 3.68 | 244 | 64 |
| Jair Jurrjens R 2027 · 4.46 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.46 | 10.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .365 | 4.29 | 16.3% | 8.4% | 54 | -0.17 | 4.29 | 125 | 64 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 113 | 16.4% | 8.3% | 1.51 | 5.20 |
| Matt Garza ('17) | 3 | 122 | 15.5% | 8.5% | 1.26 | 5.10 |
| Matt Cain ('17) | 3 | 91 | 15.2% | 8.2% | 1.51 | 5.58 |
| Homer Bailey ('19) | 4 | 96 | 18.5% | 7.8% | 1.34 | 5.56 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| Jason Vargas ('19) | 4 | 116 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 4.57 |
| Ricky Nolasco ('17) | 3 | 139 | 18.1% | 6.5% | 1.38 | 4.85 |