Mitch Spence
P
Omaha Storm Chasers
+0.2
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 28
RHP
6'1" / 185 lbs
AAA
peak 0.5 · 2027
ERA4.76
FIP4.76
xFIP7.12
SIERA7.05
K%19.1%
BB%7.2%
K-BB%11.9%
IP127
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2027
STUF4545
CTRL5555
CMD4545
K†4040
FB Velo
p2392.6
Whiff%
p5325.7%
K%
p1817.6%
xwOBA vs
p100.363
CT (36%)
SI (21%)
CU (13%)
CH (11%)
SL (19%)
FB-0.6 (21%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | 23 | 20 | 105 | 448 | 118 | 37 | 10 | 20.3% | 9.5% | 2.8% | 3.94 | 4.12 | +1.4 |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 27 | 25 | 130 | 564 | 127 | 42 | 17 | 18.8% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 4.70 | 4.41 | +1.3 |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 29 | 29 | 163 | 703 | 153 | 53 | 30 | 19.2% | 7.9% | 4.6% | 4.47 | 5.03 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 35 | 24 | 151 | 651 | 126 | 44 | 20 | 19.4% | 6.8% | 3.2% | 4.58 | 4.07 | +2.1 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Athletics | 40 | 15 | 114 | 516 | 97 | 36 | 19 | 18.1% | 7.1% | 3.8% | 5.38 | 4.58 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 1 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | KC | 51 | — | 51 | 215 | 38 | 16 | 8 | 17.6% | 7.3% | 3.6% | 4.86 | 4.92 | +0.0 |
| 2026 Total | 28 | MLB | KC | — | — | 56 | 234 | 39 | 16 | 8 | 16.6% | 6.7% | 3.3% | 4.43 | 4.48 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | KC | 23 | 23 | 124 | 525 | 90 | 39 | 19 | 17.1% | 7.4% | 3.7% | 4.94 | 4.99 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | KC | 22 | 22 | 121 | 510 | 84 | 38 | 19 | 16.6% | 7.5% | 3.7% | 5.03 | 5.08 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | KC | 21 | 21 | 116 | 492 | 79 | 37 | 19 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 3.8% | 5.12 | 5.19 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | KC | 20 | 20 | 112 | 472 | 72 | 37 | 18 | 15.3% | 7.7% | 3.9% | 5.23 | 5.30 | 0.0 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | KC | 19 | 19 | 107 | 451 | 66 | 36 | 18 | 14.7% | 7.9% | 4.0% | 5.35 | 5.43 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | KC | 18 | 18 | 102 | 429 | 60 | 35 | 18 | 14.0% | 8.1% | 4.1% | 5.48 | 5.57 | -0.3 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | KC | 17 | 17 | 96 | 404 | 54 | 34 | 17 | 13.2% | 8.3% | 4.2% | 5.62 | 5.72 | -0.5 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | KC | 16 | 16 | 90 | 378 | 47 | 32 | 16 | 12.5% | 8.6% | 4.3% | 5.78 | 5.88 | -0.7 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 155 | 114 | 668 | 2901 | 552 | 224 | 105 | 19.0% | 7.7% | 3.6% | 4.58 | 4.46 | +6.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 34 | 200 | 868 | 165 | 67 | 31 | 19.0% | 7.7% | 3.6% | 4.58 | 4.46 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Mitch Spence (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.92 | 17.6% | 7.3% | 3.6% | — | 5.08 | 16.6% | 9.1% | 362 | +0.16 | — | — | — |
| Bryan Evans R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.19 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 3.3% | .250 | 4.61 | 19.7% | 14.9% | 132 | +0.42 | 3.86 | 231 | 72 |
| A.J. Schugel R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.96 | 20.1% | 8.1% | 2.8% | .307 | 6.39 | 17.6% | 10.6% | 13 | +2.43 | 2.85 | 299 | 72 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.91 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .348 | 3.55 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.36 | 2.38 | 160 | 71 |
| Jeanmar Gómez R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.72 | 15.8% | 6.7% | 2.0% | .321 | 3.95 | 19.8% | 12.5% | 117 | +0.23 | 2.92 | 260 | 70 |
| Ramon Delgado R 2027 · 4.66 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.66 | 13.8% | 5.9% | 3.6% | .332 | 4.35 | 11.2% | 7.2% | 74 | -0.31 | 4.35 | 135 | 70 |
| Andrew Triggs R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.11 | 17.7% | 6.7% | 3.0% | .288 | 4.76 | 23.6% | 13.7% | 41 | +0.65 | 1.66 | 242 | 70 |
| Christian Bergman R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.86 | 15.3% | 5.6% | 4.3% | .309 | 4.58 | 15.0% | 9.1% | 322 | -0.28 | 4.13 | 467 | 69 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.78 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .297 | 3.85 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.85 | 102 | 69 |
| Chris Leroux R 2029 · 4.22 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.22 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.4% | .279 | 4.06 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.16 | 4.06 | 219 | 69 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.72 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .333 | 4.05 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.33 | 3.70 | 147 | 68 |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2026 · 5.29 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.29 | 15.9% | 7.4% | 4.7% | .244 | 5.54 | 11.2% | 2.3% | 115 | +0.25 | 4.51 | 224 | 68 |
| John Church R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.85 | 13.2% | 5.7% | 2.1% | .278 | 2.78 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 30 | -1.07 | 2.78 | 101 | 68 |
| Casey Sadler R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.96 | 16.0% | 7.8% | 2.2% | .298 | 3.32 | 23.2% | 16.5% | 145 | -0.64 | 2.21 | 385 | 68 |
| Francisco Mendoza R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.83 | 17.9% | 7.7% | 2.3% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 120 | 68 |
| J.J. Hoover R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.61 | 22.6% | 8.6% | 4.2% | .350 | 5.75 | 20.3% | 10.0% | 137 | +1.14 | 4.26 | 258 | 68 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2029 · 5.21 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.21 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .253 | 3.95 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.26 | 3.80 | 132 | 68 |
| Vinny Nittoli R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.20 | 19.0% | 6.9% | 3.3% | .302 | 3.84 | 26.9% | 20.4% | 93 | -0.36 | 3.68 | 331 | 67 |
| Collin Balester R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.23 | 14.2% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .240 | 3.20 | 21.2% | 15.4% | 43 | -1.03 | 3.20 | 116 | 67 |
| Drew Storen R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.77 | 21.1% | 5.3% | 3.2% | .304 | 3.89 | 19.5% | 11.6% | 65 | +0.12 | 2.26 | 172 | 67 |
| Steve Geltz R 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.30 | 22.0% | 10.2% | 5.1% | .248 | 3.57 | 22.6% | 12.4% | 27 | -1.73 | 3.57 | 157 | 67 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.