Jackson Fristoe

P Hudson Valley Renegades

Age 26 RHP 6'4" / 210 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	24	ANYY	32	0	59	4.30	5.16	18.3%	12.7%	—	K 13.6% · BB 15.0% · FIP 6.90
2026	25	A+NYY	16	0	15	9.60	5.83	17.3%	24.0%	—	K 13.3% · BB 27.6% · FIP 6.38
2027PROJ	26	MLBNYY	—	—	0	6.59	6.59	13.0%	20.0%	—
2028PROJ37% MLB	27	MLBNYY	14	0	15	6.39	6.40	14.0%	19.0%	-0.3
2029PROJ59% MLB	28	MLBNYY	20	0	21	6.29	6.33	14.6%	18.4%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control30Command25

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsMike Hepple (age 26) · Blake Hickman (age 24) · Jesús Reyes (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 158150vR 142

ERA6.59

FIP6.59

K%13.0%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%-7.0%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL3030

CMD2525

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	11	37	161	45	28	3	85%	2.8	17.0%	24.2%	-7.2%	2.4%	4.91	6.07	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	11	37	161	45	28	3	85%	2.8	28.0%	17.4%	10.6%	1.9%	4.91	4.00	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	12	12	38	164	40	28	2	100%	3.2	18.8%	19.6%	-0.9%	1.5%	3.79	4.81	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	12	12	38	164	40	28	2	100%	3.2	18.8%	19.6%	-0.9%	1.5%	3.79	4.81	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Hudson Valley Renegades	12	12	38	164	40	28	2	100%	3.2	24.4%	17.1%	7.3%	1.2%	3.79	3.89	—
2025	24	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	32	0	59	251	46	32	9	0%	1.8	13.6%	15.0%	-1.5%	5.5%	4.30	6.90	—
2025	24	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	32	0	59	251	46	32	9	0%	1.8	13.6%	15.0%	-1.5%	5.5%	4.30	6.90	—
2025	24	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	32	0	59	251	46	32	9	0%	1.8	18.3%	12.7%	5.6%	3.6%	4.30	5.16	—
2026	25	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	16	0	15	75	13	18	1	0%	0.9	13.3%	27.6%	-14.3%	1.7%	9.60	6.38	—
2026	25	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	16	0	15	75	13	18	1	0%	0.9	13.3%	27.6%	-14.3%	1.7%	9.60	6.38	—
2026	25	A+ RAW	Hudson Valley Renegades	16	0	15	75	13	18	1	0%	0.9	17.3%	24.0%	-6.7%	1.3%	9.60	5.83	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	NYY	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	13.0%	20.0%	-7.0%	3.1%	6.59	6.59	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	NYY	40	0	42	177	25	34	5	0%	1.1	14.0%	19.0%	-5.0%	3.1%	6.39	6.40	-0.8
2029	28	MLB MLE	NYY	33	0	35	148	22	27	5	0%	1.1	14.6%	18.4%	-3.8%	3.2%	6.29	6.33	-0.6
2028	27	MLB CTX	NYY	14	0	15	63	9	12	2	0%	1.1	14.0%	19.0%	-5.0%	3.1%	6.39	6.40	-0.3
2029	28	MLB CTX	NYY	20	0	21	89	13	16	3	0%	1.1	14.6%	18.4%	-3.8%	3.2%	6.29	6.33	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		34	0	36	152	22	28	5	0%	1.1	14.4%	18.7%	-4.3%	3.2%	6.33	5.98	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	122	155	28	0%	1.1	14.4%	18.7%	-4.3%	3.2%	6.33	5.98	-3.3
Career	—	MLE		73	23	148	651	102	130	22	32%	2.0	15.7%	19.9%	-4.2%	3.3%	4.85	6.11	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		98	31	200	878	138	175	29	32%	2.0	15.7%	19.9%	-4.2%	3.3%	4.85	6.11	-4.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 15 IPFIP 5.41 → 6.38 (+0.98)K% 17.3% → 13.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.33%	—	×0.770	13.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	24.00%	—	×1.150	27.60%
HR / BF /BF	1.33%	÷1.000	×1.250	1.67%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.41 → 6.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ATampa Tarpons · 59 IPFIP 5.14 → 6.90 (+1.77)K% 18.3% → 13.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.33%	—	×0.740	13.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.75%	—	×1.180	15.04%
HR / BF /BF	3.59%	÷0.842	×1.300	5.54%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 68).

Result: FIP 5.14 → 6.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 38 IPFIP 3.87 → 4.81 (+0.94)K% 24.4% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.39%	—	×0.770	18.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.07%	—	×1.150	19.63%
HR / BF /BF	1.22%	÷1.032	×1.250	1.48%

Result: FIP 3.87 → 4.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Yankees · 27 IPFIP 4.77 → 6.07 (+1.31)K% 25.0% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.680	17.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.35%	—	×1.250	24.19%
HR / BF /BF	2.42%	÷1.383	×1.400	2.45%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 177).

Result: FIP 4.77 → 6.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ATampa Tarpons · 9 IPFIP 1.27 → 2.35 (+1.08)K% 37.8% → 28.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.84%	—	×0.740	28.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.81%	—	×1.180	12.76%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.086	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.27 → 2.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jackson Fristoe (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.59	13.0%	20.0%	3.1%	—	6.37	14.3%	-4.4%	77	-0.22	—	—	—
Mike Hepple R 2016 · 5.75 FIP	26	SU	5.75	11.1%	18.5%	2.3%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	116	78
Blake Hickman R 2018 · 6.57 FIP	24	SW	6.57	12.9%	17.8%	4.2%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	4.19	156	77
Jesús Reyes R 2019 · 5.71 FIP	26	SU	5.71	15.9%	15.7%	3.6%	.283	5.11	17.5%	5.6%	118	-0.60	3.85	554	77
Vanny Valenzuela R 2015 · 6.82 FIP	27	SW	6.82	12.4%	14.8%	5.3%	.314	4.29	15.8%	4.6%	70	-2.53	3.26	118	76
Alex Caldera R 2015 · 5.57 FIP	29	SW	5.57	10.4%	13.1%	3.1%	.333	4.54	11.9%	0.8%	84	-1.03	4.54	120	76
Clate Schmidt R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	25	SU	5.66	13.5%	13.9%	3.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	160	76
Hunter Dollander R 2023 · 6.77 FIP	26	SU	6.77	17.6%	18.3%	5.2%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	106	75
Jeff Soptic R 2016 · 5.52 FIP	25	SU	5.52	13.6%	15.3%	3.0%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	5.30	124	75
Ricky Salinas R 2022 · 5.79 FIP	26	SU	5.79	14.3%	15.1%	3.6%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	274	73
Jake Haberer R 2021 · 6.54 FIP	26	SU	6.54	13.4%	17.5%	4.3%	.287	5.15	19.6%	4.0%	106	-1.39	3.46	183	73
Cre Finfrock R 2022 · 6.31 FIP	26	SU	6.31	16.7%	25.2%	2.6%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	103	72
Wandi Montout R 2022 · 5.59 FIP	25	SU	5.59	13.4%	18.7%	2.3%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	103	72
Tommy DeJuneas R 2021 · 5.65 FIP	25	SU	5.65	13.7%	17.6%	2.7%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	178	72
Brad Case R 2023 · 5.46 FIP	26	SW	5.46	15.4%	17.4%	2.6%	.341	3.96	10.6%	4.5%	37	-1.50	3.78	393	71
Ryan Olson R 2022 · 6.71 FIP	27	SU	6.71	9.0%	26.2%	1.9%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	102	71
Leandro Linares R 2018 · 5.49 FIP	24	SU	5.49	16.2%	22.0%	1.8%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	1.93	134	71
Ted Stuka R 2023 · 7.45 FIP	26	SU	7.45	15.2%	36.8%	1.8%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	5.36	105	70
Michael Kelly R 2018 · 6.36 FIP	25	SW	6.36	14.6%	24.2%	2.6%	.299	3.51	24.8%	15.9%	45	-2.85	2.70	666	70
Brady Schanuel R 2022 · 5.51 FIP	25	SW	5.51	17.9%	23.5%	1.7%	.200	—	—	—	—	—	3.91	132	70
Cooper Adams R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SW	5.42	13.0%	12.2%	3.4%	.275	4.32	21.7%	10.4%	141	-1.10	3.05	221	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	46	13.7%	19.3%	1.20	6.45
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Lloyd Allen ('69-'75, -5 WAR*)	1.5	59	19.8%*	13.9%*	0.79*	5.99*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*