Kevin Gowdy — OGILVIE

Kevin Gowdy P Binghamton Rumble Ponies

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 205 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 24 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 109

ERA4.87

FIP4.87

K%16.8%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%6.7%

ROS IP24

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 24 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	18	ROK MLE	GCL Phillies	4	4	9	42	9	2	0	100%	2.2	21.4%	4.8%	16.7%	0.0%	4.00	1.89	—
2016	18	ROK RAW	GCL Phillies	4	4	9	42	9	2	0	100%	2.2	21.4%	4.8%	16.7%	0.0%	4.00	1.77	—
2019	21	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	24	16	77	354	53	51	4	67%	3.2	11.1%	17.0%	-5.9%	1.8%	4.68	5.31	—
2019	21	A RAW	Lakewood BlueClaws	24	16	77	354	53	51	4	67%	3.2	15.0%	14.4%	0.6%	1.1%	4.68	4.39	—
2021	23	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	20	16	90	387	89	25	9	80%	4.5	17.7%	7.4%	10.3%	3.3%	4.20	4.36	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	Hickory Crawdads	20	16	90	387	89	25	9	80%	4.5	23.0%	6.5%	16.5%	2.3%	4.20	3.26	—
2022	24	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	32	3	40	201	33	31	11	9%	1.2	13.3%	17.0%	-3.7%	7.2%	9.90	8.07	—
2022	24	AA RAW	Frisco RoughRiders	32	3	40	201	33	31	11	9%	1.2	16.4%	15.4%	1.0%	5.5%	9.90	7.35	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	31	0	38	168	41	20	4	0%	1.2	19.8%	13.1%	6.7%	2.6%	4.93	4.54	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	31	0	38	168	41	20	4	0%	1.2	19.8%	13.1%	6.7%	2.6%	4.93	4.54	—
2023	25	AA RAW	Tulsa Drillers	31	0	38	168	41	20	4	0%	1.2	24.4%	11.9%	12.5%	2.4%	4.93	3.88	—
2024	26	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Baseball Club	42	1	51	231	45	23	1	2%	1.2	16.2%	9.0%	7.2%	0.5%	4.38	3.16	—
2024	26	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Baseball Club	42	1	51	231	45	23	1	2%	1.2	16.2%	9.0%	7.2%	0.5%	4.38	3.16	—
2024	26	AAA RAW	Oklahoma City Baseball Club	42	1	51	231	45	23	1	2%	1.2	19.5%	10.0%	9.5%	0.4%	4.38	2.94	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	33	0	36	172	32	20	5	0%	1.1	15.4%	10.5%	5.0%	3.8%	5.25	5.19	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	33	0	36	172	32	20	5	0%	1.1	15.4%	10.5%	5.0%	3.8%	5.25	5.19	—
2025	27	AAA RAW	Buffalo Bisons	33	0	36	172	32	20	5	0%	1.1	18.6%	11.6%	7.0%	2.9%	5.25	4.79	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	10	0	9	49	12	9	2	0%	0.9	—	—	—	—	10.61	—	—
YTD	28	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	10	0	9	49	12	9	2	0%	0.9	—	—	—	—	10.61	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AA RAW	NYM	10	0	9	49	12	9	2	0%	0.9	24.5%	18.4%	6.1%	4.1%	10.61	5.60	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	NYM	22	0	23	97	17	10	3	0%	1.0	17.2%	10.2%	7.0%	3.0%	4.90	4.95	-0.1
2027	29	MLB CTX	NYM	7	0	7	30	5	3	1	0%	1.0	17.2%	10.2%	7.0%	3.0%	4.90	4.95	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	30	5	3	1	0%	1.0	17.2%	10.2%	7.0%	3.0%	4.90	4.57	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	139	83	28	0%	1.1	17.2%	10.2%	7.0%	3.0%	4.90	4.57	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		196	40	351	1604	253	195	48	20%	1.8	15.7%	12.1%	3.6%	3.0%	5.33	4.94	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		112	23	200	914	144	111	27	20%	1.8	15.7%	12.1%	3.6%	3.0%	5.33	4.94	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kevin Gowdy (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.87	16.8%	10.0%	2.8%	—	4.95	17.2%	7.0%	23	+0.08	—	—	—
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	85
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	83
Rob Scahill R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	28	SU	3.91	16.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.288	3.34	17.9%	10.1%	171	-0.57	3.06	201	83
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	81
Drew Hayes R 2016 · 3.99 FIP	28	SU	3.99	13.8%	10.1%	1.4%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	117	81
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	80
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	80
Josh Zeid R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	28	SU	4.12	16.6%	12.5%	1.6%	.302	5.19	16.9%	5.7%	194	+1.07	4.12	265	80
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	79
Jose Casilla R 2016 · 4.65 FIP	27	SU	4.65	13.0%	8.0%	3.0%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.06	104	79
Ryan Doolittle R 2016 · 4.38 FIP	28	SU	4.38	13.9%	7.1%	2.8%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	101	79
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	79
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	79
Jhan Mariñez R 2017 · 3.97 FIP	28	SU	3.97	17.2%	8.8%	2.2%	.309	4.09	21.2%	13.3%	48	+0.12	3.16	253	79
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	78
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	78
David Goforth R 2017 · 5.09 FIP	28	SU	5.09	13.6%	10.2%	3.4%	.282	4.07	14.1%	5.5%	68	-1.02	3.98	256	78
Eder Llamas R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	29	SU	4.84	12.3%	8.8%	3.0%	.261	3.64	11.3%	4.6%	120	-1.20	3.23	171	77
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	77
Edwin Jackson R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	31	SU	3.77	17.5%	8.8%	1.9%	.244	4.71	17.6%	7.8%	377	+0.94	3.77	521	77