Kevin Gowdy
P
Binghamton Rumble Ponies
Age 28
RHP
6'4" / 205 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION9 act + 24 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128119vR 110
ERA4.82
FIP4.82
K%19.6%
BB%10.7%
K-BB%8.9%
ROS IP24
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 33 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | GCL Phillies | 4 | 4 | 9 | 42 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 2.2 | 21.4% | 4.8% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 4.00 | 1.89 | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | GCL Phillies | 4 | 4 | 9 | 42 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 2.2 | 21.4% | 4.8% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 4.00 | 1.77 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A | Lakewood BlueClaws | 24 | 16 | 77 | 354 | 53 | 51 | 4 | 67% | 3.2 | 11.1% | 17.0% | -5.9% | 2.4% | 4.68 | 5.62 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A | Lakewood BlueClaws | 24 | 16 | 77 | 354 | 53 | 51 | 4 | 67% | 3.2 | 15.0% | 14.4% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 4.68 | 4.39 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | 20 | 16 | 90 | 387 | 89 | 25 | 9 | 80% | 4.5 | 17.7% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 3.8% | 4.20 | 4.64 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | 20 | 16 | 90 | 387 | 89 | 25 | 9 | 80% | 4.5 | 23.0% | 6.5% | 16.5% | 2.3% | 4.20 | 3.26 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 32 | 3 | 40 | 201 | 33 | 31 | 11 | 9% | 1.2 | 13.3% | 17.0% | -3.7% | 7.9% | 9.90 | 8.47 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 32 | 3 | 40 | 201 | 33 | 31 | 11 | 9% | 1.2 | 16.4% | 15.4% | 1.0% | 5.5% | 9.90 | 7.35 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 31 | 0 | 38 | 168 | 41 | 20 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.8% | 13.1% | 6.7% | 2.5% | 4.93 | 4.44 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 31 | 0 | 38 | 168 | 41 | 20 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.4% | 11.9% | 12.5% | 2.4% | 4.93 | 3.88 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Oklahoma City Baseball Club | 42 | 1 | 51 | 231 | 45 | 23 | 1 | 2% | 1.2 | 17.1% | 10.5% | 6.7% | 0.6% | 4.38 | 3.31 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Oklahoma City Baseball Club | 42 | 1 | 51 | 231 | 45 | 23 | 1 | 2% | 1.2 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 0.4% | 4.38 | 2.94 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 33 | 0 | 36 | 172 | 32 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.4% | 12.2% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.25 | 5.80 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 33 | 0 | 36 | 172 | 32 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.6% | 11.6% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 5.25 | 4.79 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | 10 | 0 | 9 | 49 | 12 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | — | — | — | — | 10.61 | — | — |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | NYM | 23 | 0 | 24 | 102 | 20 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.6% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 4.82 | 4.82 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 19.6% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 4.82 | 4.82 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 33 | 151 | 32 | 20 | 5 | — | — | 21.2% | 13.2% | 8.0% | 3.3% | 6.44 | 3.47 | +0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 19.6% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 4.82 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 22 | 0 | 23 | 97 | 19 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.7% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 4.85 | 4.90 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.7% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 4.85 | 4.90 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 7 | 0 | 8 | 32 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.7% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 4.85 | 4.51 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 156 | 78 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.7% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 4.85 | 4.51 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 196 | 40 | 351 | 1604 | 256 | 201 | 55 | 20% | 1.8 | 16.0% | 12.5% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 5.33 | 5.20 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 112 | 23 | 200 | 914 | 146 | 115 | 31 | 20% | 1.8 | 16.0% | 12.5% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 5.33 | 5.20 | +0.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kevin Gowdy (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.82 | 19.6% | 10.7% | 3.0% | — | 4.90 | 19.7% | 9.0% | 23 | +0.08 | — | — | — |
| Luis Mateo R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.33 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .309 | 5.34 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +1.01 | 3.43 | 160 | 83 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 82 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2028 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 82 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.69 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .297 | 4.04 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.65 | 4.04 | 102 | 81 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.96 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .275 | 7.33 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +2.37 | 3.78 | 180 | 81 |
| Rob Scahill R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.83 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 2.1% | .288 | 3.34 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 171 | -0.49 | 2.93 | 201 | 80 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.39 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.65 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.26 | 4.39 | 101 | 79 |
| Mike Adams R 2025 · 5.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.26 | 17.1% | 11.2% | 4.0% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 109 | 79 |
| Joe Colón J R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 79 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.99 | 17.2% | 8.8% | 2.2% | .309 | 4.16 | 21.2% | 13.3% | 48 | +0.17 | 3.23 | 253 | 78 |
| Josh Zeid R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.21 | 16.6% | 12.5% | 1.7% | .302 | 5.16 | 16.9% | 5.7% | 194 | +0.95 | 4.21 | 265 | 78 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2027 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 78 |
| Ronald Peña R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.51 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .355 | 4.54 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | +0.03 | 3.57 | 187 | 78 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.44 | 17.9% | 12.5% | 2.3% | .450 | 3.38 | 18.0% | 9.1% | 85 | -1.06 | 3.03 | 115 | 78 |
| Javy Guerra R 2028 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 77 |
| Francisco Mendoza R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.11 | 17.9% | 7.7% | 2.8% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 120 | 77 |
| Matt Carasiti R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.96 | 18.6% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .276 | 4.91 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 22 | +0.95 | 2.88 | 312 | 77 |
| Beck Wheeler R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.09 | 15.3% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 173 | 77 |
| Nick Merkel R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.85 | 17.9% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 201 | 77 |
| Guido Knudson R 2024 · 4.83 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.83 | 17.5% | 10.8% | 3.4% | .235 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 106 | 76 |