Danny Flatt
P
Tampa Tarpons
+0.1
WAR
Age 22
RHP
6'4" / 190 lbs
A
peak 0.2 · 2027
ERA4.70
FIP4.70
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.2%
BB%10.6%
K-BB%10.5%
IP28
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2027
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | A | Tampa Tarpons | 14 | 10 | 46 | 219 | 46 | 28 | 7 | 14.5% | 15.7% | 4.0% | 4.47 | 6.04 | -0.6 |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Tampa Tarpons | 7 | 7 | 27 | 129 | 21 | 17 | 2 | 12.0% | 15.6% | 2.3% | 4.33 | 5.31 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A | Tampa Tarpons | 2 | 2 | 11 | 40 | 8 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | 4.22 | — | — |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | NYY | 28 | — | 28 | 120 | 25 | 13 | 4 | 21.2% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 4.70 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 22 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 39 | 160 | 33 | 14 | 5 | 20.9% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 4.57 | 3.42 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | NYY | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 28 | 12 | 4 | 22.1% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 4.56 | 4.49 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 23 | 19 | 84 | 388 | 55 | 56 | 13 | 14.3% | 14.3% | 3.3% | 4.39 | 5.49 | -0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 55 | 45 | 200 | 924 | 131 | 133 | 31 | 14.3% | 14.3% | 3.3% | 4.39 | 5.49 | -0.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Danny Flatt (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.70 | 21.2% | 10.6% | 3.0% | — | 4.49 | 22.1% | 12.3% | 30 | -0.21 | — | — | — |
| Heath Holder R 2027 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.30 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -0.86 | 2.92 | 367 | 94 |
| Kyle Zurak R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.96 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.42 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 121 | -0.54 | 3.19 | 181 | 94 |
| Cody Palmquist R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.20 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.3% | .278 | 5.95 | 14.7% | 7.1% | 62 | +1.75 | 4.20 | 104 | 91 |
| Peyton Williams R 2027 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.66 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.87 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 100 | +1.21 | 3.66 | 123 | 91 |
| Owen Holt R 2027 · 3.81 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.81 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 2.1% | .258 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 107 | +0.72 | 3.81 | 145 | 90 |
| Chad Donato R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.89 | 439 | 90 |
| Jordan Mikel R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.49 | 20.5% | 12.5% | 2.8% | .330 | 4.17 | 19.2% | 9.0% | 109 | -0.32 | 3.05 | 195 | 90 |
| Chad Patrick R 2027 · 3.82 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.82 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.1% | .315 | 4.23 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.41 | 3.72 | 483 | 90 |
| Austin Smith R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.85 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.19 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.34 | 3.85 | 100 | 90 |
| Corey Copping R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.13 | 21.4% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .265 | 4.57 | 19.6% | 6.7% | 179 | +0.44 | 3.39 | 214 | 90 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2027 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.48 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.10 | 4.15 | 338 | 89 |
| Scott Williams R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.66 | 20.2% | 10.6% | 3.5% | .256 | 2.89 | 18.5% | 11.2% | 42 | -1.77 | 2.89 | 119 | 89 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2028 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.43 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.3% | .261 | 3.88 | 20.1% | 9.3% | 114 | -0.55 | 3.82 | 142 | 89 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.95 | 22.7% | 10.8% | 2.5% | .236 | 3.95 | 18.2% | 9.1% | 96 | -0.00 | 3.37 | 134 | 89 |
| Ismael Cabrera R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.79 | 19.5% | 12.4% | 3.2% | .276 | 5.22 | 16.9% | 6.5% | 95 | +0.43 | 3.56 | 133 | 88 |
| Chris Gau R 2025 · 4.76 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.76 | 20.0% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .290 | 3.18 | 29.5% | 23.5% | 37 | -1.58 | 2.98 | 211 | 88 |
| Gus Varland R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.26 | 19.6% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .294 | 5.73 | 18.1% | 5.7% | 105 | +1.47 | 2.40 | 272 | 88 |
| Kyle Marman R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.97 | 22.2% | 12.8% | 2.0% | .270 | 5.16 | 22.5% | 8.4% | 71 | +1.19 | 3.97 | 117 | 88 |
| Mike Morrison R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.86 | 17.3% | 10.7% | 3.4% | .280 | 4.00 | 19.0% | 7.1% | 128 | -0.86 | 3.32 | 145 | 88 |
| Zac Ryan R 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.86 | 20.5% | 10.9% | 2.0% | .233 | 3.93 | 21.6% | 6.9% | 124 | +0.07 | 3.84 | 184 | 88 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.