Danny Flatt

P Tampa Tarpons

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 190 lbs A peak 0.2 · 2029

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	MIX2 levels	14	10	46	4.47	4.89	21.0%	12.8%	—	K 14.5% · BB 15.7% · FIP 6.12
2025	21	ANYY	7	7	27	4.33	4.40	16.3%	13.2%	—	K 12.0% · BB 15.6% · FIP 5.37
2026	22	MIX3 levels	19	11	54	6.33	4.77	18.8%	12.4%	—	K 13.5% · BB 14.5% · FIP 6.06
2027PROJ	23	MLBNYY	—	—	0	5.62	5.62	16.2%	14.1%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBNYY	3	3	16	5.33	5.22	18.2%	12.5%	0.0
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBNYY	4	4	24	5.09	4.97	19.4%	11.4%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsZach Linginfelter (age 24) · Ryan Atkinson (age 23) · Noah Skirrow (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140132vR 124

ERA5.62

FIP5.62

K%16.2%

BB%14.1%

K-BB%2.1%

Proj IP25

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	10	46	219	46	28	7	71%	3.3	14.5%	15.7%	-1.2%	4.1%	4.47	6.12	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	10	46	219	46	28	7	71%	3.3	14.5%	15.7%	-1.2%	4.1%	4.47	6.12	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	10	46	219	46	28	7	71%	3.3	21.0%	12.8%	8.2%	3.2%	4.47	4.89	—
2025	21	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	7	7	27	129	21	17	2	100%	3.9	12.0%	15.6%	-3.5%	2.4%	4.33	5.37	—
2025	21	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	7	7	27	129	21	17	2	100%	3.9	12.0%	15.6%	-3.5%	2.4%	4.33	5.37	—
2025	21	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	7	7	27	129	21	17	2	100%	3.9	16.3%	13.2%	3.1%	1.6%	4.33	4.40	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	11	54	250	47	31	7	58%	2.8	13.5%	14.5%	-1.0%	4.1%	6.33	6.06	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	11	54	250	47	31	7	58%	2.8	13.5%	14.5%	-1.0%	4.1%	6.33	6.06	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	11	54	250	47	31	7	58%	2.8	18.8%	12.4%	6.4%	2.8%	6.33	4.77	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	NYY	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.2%	14.1%	2.1%	3.1%	5.62	5.62	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	NYY	7	7	38	163	30	20	5	100%	5.5	18.2%	12.5%	5.7%	3.1%	5.33	5.22	+0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	NYY	6	6	36	153	30	18	5	100%	6.0	19.4%	11.4%	8.0%	3.1%	5.09	4.97	+0.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	NYY	6	6	36	152	31	17	5	100%	6.0	20.1%	11.3%	8.8%	3.1%	4.96	4.90	+0.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	NYY	6	6	35	148	30	17	5	100%	5.8	20.1%	11.3%	8.8%	3.1%	4.93	4.92	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	NYY	3	3	16	68	12	8	2	100%	5.3	18.2%	12.5%	5.7%	3.1%	5.33	5.22	+0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	NYY	4	4	24	101	20	12	3	100%	6.0	19.4%	11.4%	8.0%	3.1%	5.09	4.97	+0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	NYY	5	5	29	122	25	14	4	100%	5.8	20.1%	11.3%	8.8%	3.1%	4.96	4.90	+0.2
2031	27	MLB CTX	NYY	5	5	30	127	25	14	4	100%	6.0	20.1%	11.3%	8.8%	3.1%	4.93	4.92	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	17	99	418	82	48	13	100%	5.8	19.6%	11.5%	8.1%	3.1%	5.04	4.60	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	166	97	26	100%	5.9	19.6%	11.5%	8.1%	3.1%	5.04	4.60	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		40	28	127	598	81	91	22	70%	3.2	13.6%	15.2%	-1.6%	3.7%	5.23	5.93	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	44	200	939	127	143	35	70%	3.2	13.6%	15.2%	-1.6%	3.7%	5.23	5.93	+0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ATampa Tarpons · 30 IPFIP 5.23 → 6.47 (+1.24)K% 16.3% → 12.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.28%	—	×0.740	12.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.85%	—	×1.180	12.81%
HR / BF /BF	3.88%	÷1.000	×1.300	5.04%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.23 → 6.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKFCL Yankees · 19 IPFIP 4.01 → 5.50 (+1.49)K% 22.7% → 15.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.68%	—	×0.680	15.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.40%	—	×1.250	16.75%
HR / BF /BF	2.06%	÷1.000	×1.400	2.89%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.01 → 5.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 5 IPFIP 3.80 → 4.44 (+0.64)K% 16.7% → 12.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.67%	—	×0.770	12.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.67%	—	×1.150	19.17%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.80 → 4.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ATampa Tarpons · 27 IPFIP 4.25 → 5.37 (+1.12)K% 16.3% → 12.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.28%	—	×0.740	12.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.18%	—	×1.180	15.55%
HR / BF /BF	1.55%	÷0.842	×1.300	2.39%

Result: FIP 4.25 → 5.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Yankees · 37 IPFIP 3.76 → 5.00 (+1.25)K% 23.0% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.98%	—	×0.680	15.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.42%	—	×1.250	15.53%
HR / BF /BF	1.86%	÷1.142	×1.400	2.29%

Result: FIP 3.76 → 5.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ATampa Tarpons · 10 IPFIP 7.32 → 9.22 (+1.90)K% 15.5% → 11.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.52%	—	×0.740	11.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.79%	—	×1.180	16.28%
HR / BF /BF	6.90%	÷0.979	×1.300	9.16%

Result: FIP 7.32 → 9.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Danny Flatt (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.62	16.2%	14.1%	3.1%	—	5.03	19.2%	7.4%	111	-0.59	—	—	—
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	83
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	83
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	82
Rubén Menes R 2024 · 5.62 FIP	22	SP-	5.62	15.8%	15.2%	3.5%	.235	4.77	15.6%	2.4%	81	-0.85	3.39	112	81
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	80
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	80
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	80
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	80
Seth McClung R 2003 · 5.63 FIP	22	SW	5.63	15.0%	14.4%	3.6%	.241	5.29	15.3%	2.8%	212	-0.34	2.52	430	80
Luis Martinez-Gomez R 2024 · 5.22 FIP	21	SP-	5.22	13.9%	15.4%	2.5%	.237	4.69	20.8%	6.1%	105	-0.53	3.76	133	79
Fernando Baez R 2015 · 6.56 FIP	23	SP-	6.56	18.6%	18.8%	4.8%	.322	4.51	26.9%	7.8%	94	-2.05	3.45	129	79
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	79
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	79
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	78
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	78
Ryan Jensen R 2001 · 5.03 FIP	25	SP-	5.03	13.5%	13.0%	2.6%	.285	4.82	13.4%	5.2%	185	-0.21	4.35	253	78
David Rodriguez R 2024 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP-	4.50	13.5%	11.7%	1.9%	.316	3.85	16.9%	9.9%	125	-0.65	3.80	184	78
Luis Ojeda R 2019 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP-	4.94	14.6%	13.4%	2.5%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	131	78
Eriq Swan R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	22	SP-	4.85	19.7%	17.3%	2.2%	.371	5.28	19.7%	0.9%	109	+0.43	4.85	132	77
John Maine R 2005 · 6.04 FIP	24	SP-	6.04	13.0%	13.0%	4.3%	.242	4.20	20.9%	11.4%	421	-1.84	3.91	582	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	34	19.0%	12.0%	1.20	5.16
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26