Danny Flatt — OGILVIE

Danny Flatt P Tampa Tarpons

Age 22 RHP 6'4" / 190 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.5 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 19 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139131vR 123

ERA5.57

FIP5.57

K%16.8%

BB%14.6%

K-BB%2.3%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.6M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	10	46	219	46	28	7	71%	3.3	14.5%	15.7%	-1.2%	4.1%	4.47	6.12	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	10	46	219	46	28	7	71%	3.3	14.5%	15.7%	-1.2%	4.1%	4.47	6.12	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	10	46	219	46	28	7	71%	3.3	21.0%	12.8%	8.2%	3.2%	4.47	4.89	—
2025	21	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	7	7	27	129	21	17	2	100%	3.9	12.0%	15.6%	-3.5%	2.4%	4.33	5.37	—
2025	21	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	7	7	27	129	21	17	2	100%	3.9	12.0%	15.6%	-3.5%	2.4%	4.33	5.37	—
2025	21	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	7	7	27	129	21	17	2	100%	3.9	16.3%	13.2%	3.1%	1.6%	4.33	4.40	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	19	11	54	250	47	31	7	58%	2.8	13.5%	14.5%	-1.0%	4.1%	6.33	6.06	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	19	11	54	250	47	31	7	58%	2.8	13.5%	14.5%	-1.0%	4.1%	6.33	6.06	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	ROK RAW	NYY	9	5	19	97	22	13	2	56%	2.1	22.7%	13.4%	9.3%	2.1%	6.52	4.01	—
2026	22	A RAW	NYY	8	4	30	129	21	14	5	50%	3.7	16.3%	10.9%	5.4%	3.9%	6.07	5.23	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	NYY	2	2	5	24	4	4	0	100%	2.5	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	0.0%	7.20	3.80	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	NYY	10	10	55	232	44	29	7	100%	5.5	18.8%	12.7%	6.1%	3.0%	5.26	5.14	-0.1
2028	24	MLB MLE	NYY	10	10	56	238	48	27	7	100%	5.6	20.1%	11.5%	8.5%	3.0%	5.00	4.87	+0.0
2029	25	MLB MLE	NYY	10	10	57	241	50	26	7	100%	5.7	20.7%	10.8%	10.0%	2.9%	4.81	4.71	+0.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	NYY	10	10	57	241	51	26	7	100%	5.7	21.0%	10.7%	10.4%	2.9%	4.72	4.67	+0.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	NYY	9	9	56	237	50	25	7	100%	6.2	21.0%	10.8%	10.3%	3.0%	4.71	4.71	+0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	NYY	5	5	27	114	21	15	4	100%	5.4	18.8%	12.7%	6.1%	3.2%	5.37	5.25	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	NYY	7	7	39	165	33	19	5	100%	5.6	20.1%	11.5%	8.5%	3.2%	5.11	4.98	+0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	NYY	8	8	46	194	40	21	6	100%	5.8	20.7%	10.8%	10.0%	3.1%	4.92	4.82	+0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	NYY	8	8	50	211	44	23	7	100%	6.2	21.0%	10.7%	10.4%	3.1%	4.83	4.78	+0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	NYY	8	8	51	215	45	23	7	100%	6.4	21.0%	10.8%	10.3%	3.2%	4.82	4.82	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		37	37	213	899	184	100	28	100%	5.8	20.5%	11.1%	9.4%	3.2%	4.97	4.51	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	173	94	26	100%	5.8	20.5%	11.1%	9.4%	3.2%	4.97	4.51	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		40	28	127	598	81	91	22	70%	3.2	13.6%	15.2%	-1.6%	3.7%	5.23	5.93	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	44	200	939	127	143	35	70%	3.2	13.6%	15.2%	-1.6%	3.7%	5.23	5.93	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Danny Flatt (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.57	16.8%	14.6%	3.0%	—	4.90	19.9%	8.2%	168	-0.67	—	—	—
Luis Mora R 2016 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	16.3%	15.4%	3.8%	.303	5.27	23.9%	1.2%	43	-0.51	3.95	119	84
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.16	23.1%	9.1%	200	-1.68	3.51	223	82
Trent Fennell R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	14.5%	12.5%	1.9%	.317	4.46	20.9%	7.5%	89	-0.02	4.08	163	82
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	82
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	81
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	81
Marco Jimenez R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	22	SP-	5.27	19.6%	17.7%	2.9%	.372	3.89	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.38	3.36	183	81
Alex Vallecillo R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	18.6%	16.3%	2.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	152	81
Luis Ojeda R 2019 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP-	4.94	14.6%	13.4%	2.5%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	131	80
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	80
Mac Sceroler R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	17.6%	11.8%	2.5%	.318	4.34	18.4%	10.3%	200	-0.12	3.95	275	80
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	80
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	80
Alain Pena R 2023 · 5.48 FIP	20	SP-	5.48	14.2%	13.9%	3.3%	.222	5.68	15.6%	3.5%	191	+0.20	3.66	266	79
Gage Stanifer R 2023 · 4.78 FIP	19	SP-	4.78	16.6%	14.9%	2.2%	.342	4.35	24.2%	7.9%	259	-0.43	2.85	301	79
Fernando Baez R 2015 · 6.56 FIP	23	SP-	6.56	18.6%	18.8%	4.8%	.322	4.51	26.9%	7.8%	94	-2.05	3.45	129	79
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	79
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	79
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	79
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	50	20.1%	11.5%	1.15	4.94
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04