Danny Flatt
P
Tampa Tarpons
Age 22
RHP
6'4" / 190 lbs
A
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION38 act + 20 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126117vR 107
ERA4.72
FIP4.72
K%21.2%
BB%10.6%
K-BB%10.5%
ROS IP20
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 10 | 46 | 219 | 46 | 28 | 7 | 71% | 3.3 | 14.5% | 15.7% | -1.2% | 4.0% | 4.47 | 6.05 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 10 | 46 | 219 | 46 | 28 | 7 | 71% | 3.3 | 21.0% | 12.8% | 8.2% | 3.2% | 4.47 | 4.89 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Tampa Tarpons | 7 | 7 | 27 | 129 | 21 | 17 | 2 | 100% | 3.9 | 12.0% | 15.6% | -3.5% | 3.0% | 4.33 | 5.67 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Tampa Tarpons | 7 | 7 | 27 | 129 | 21 | 17 | 2 | 100% | 3.9 | 16.3% | 13.2% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 4.33 | 4.40 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A | Tampa Tarpons | 12 | 8 | 38 | 170 | 31 | 17 | 4 | 67% | 3.2 | 12.9% | 12.3% | 0.6% | 3.2% | 4.93 | 5.31 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | NYY | 4 | 4 | 20 | 84 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 100% | 5.0 | 21.2% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 3.1% | 4.72 | 4.72 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.2% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 3.1% | 4.72 | 4.72 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 58 | 254 | 49 | 26 | 7 | — | — | 19.2% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 2.6% | 4.86 | 5.11 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | NYY | 4 | 4 | 21 | 87 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 100% | 5.2 | 22.1% | 9.8% | 12.3% | 3.0% | 4.58 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | NYY | 2 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 5.0 | 22.1% | 9.8% | 12.3% | 3.0% | 4.58 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 10 | 43 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 5.1 | 22.1% | 9.8% | 12.3% | 3.0% | 4.58 | 4.13 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 37 | 200 | 844 | 178 | 79 | 20 | 100% | 5.3 | 22.1% | 9.8% | 12.3% | 3.0% | 4.58 | 4.13 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 33 | 25 | 112 | 518 | 69 | 75 | 18 | 76% | 3.4 | 13.4% | 14.5% | -1.2% | 3.5% | 4.59 | 5.71 | -0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 59 | 45 | 200 | 928 | 124 | 135 | 32 | 76% | 3.4 | 13.4% | 14.5% | -1.2% | 3.5% | 4.59 | 5.71 | -0.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Danny Flatt (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.72 | 21.2% | 10.6% | 3.1% | — | 4.51 | 22.1% | 12.3% | 21 | -0.21 | — | — | — |
| Chad Donato R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.91 | 439 | 88 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2027 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.53 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.05 | 4.07 | 338 | 88 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2028 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.78 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.43 | 4.25 | 412 | 85 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2027 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .275 | 4.09 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.36 | 3.05 | 181 | 84 |
| Tanner Hall R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.56 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 3.0% | .295 | 5.39 | 10.1% | -4.6% | 72 | +0.83 | 4.56 | 137 | 83 |
| Michael Knorr R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .312 | 5.16 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +1.13 | 4.03 | 152 | 83 |
| Ray Gaither R 2028 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 82 |
| Hunter Gregory R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.98 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .374 | 4.64 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.66 | 3.18 | 234 | 82 |
| Grant Judkins R 2027 · 5.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.40 | 21.0% | 11.2% | 4.8% | .346 | 5.85 | 16.4% | 5.4% | 150 | +0.45 | 5.40 | 322 | 81 |
| Jimmy Kingsbury R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.00 | 21.9% | 9.8% | 2.7% | .175 | 4.15 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 168 | +0.15 | 3.59 | 307 | 81 |
| Jared Karros R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.72 | 19.0% | 8.9% | 3.8% | .290 | 5.32 | 17.8% | 8.3% | 120 | +0.60 | 3.31 | 191 | 80 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2027 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | .306 | 4.68 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 316 | +0.34 | 3.90 | 371 | 80 |
| Mac Sceroler R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.46 | 17.6% | 11.8% | 2.5% | .318 | 4.22 | 18.4% | 10.3% | 200 | -0.24 | 3.81 | 275 | 79 |
| Ricky Castro R 2028 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.93 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .287 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 140 | +0.65 | 3.90 | 202 | 79 |
| Christian Roa R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.02 | 19.6% | 12.4% | 3.6% | .321 | 4.92 | 22.7% | 6.2% | 260 | -0.10 | 4.38 | 406 | 79 |
| Nick Fraze R 2027 · 4.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.68 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 4.1% | .271 | 4.64 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 162 | -0.04 | 3.81 | 278 | 79 |
| Blair Henley R 2028 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 20.8% | 12.2% | 3.5% | .450 | 4.58 | 17.9% | 4.8% | 170 | -0.22 | 3.80 | 187 | 78 |
| Casey Legumina R 2028 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 78 |
| Bryce Cunningham R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.06 | 19.3% | 9.9% | 2.4% | .268 | 5.93 | 17.4% | 2.1% | 47 | +1.87 | 4.06 | 101 | 77 |
| TJ Nichols R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.96 | 17.0% | 9.0% | 2.1% | .310 | 5.17 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 174 | +1.21 | 3.96 | 245 | 77 |