Aaron Hernandez
P
Rocket City Trash Pandas
+0.1
WAR
Age 29
RHP
6'1" / 170 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.45
FIP4.45
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.1%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%13.1%
IP9
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Inland Empire 66ers | 20 | 15 | 73 | 336 | 81 | 46 | 6 | 18.6% | 15.7% | 2.4% | 4.46 | 4.82 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | 16 | 15 | 63 | 299 | 78 | 44 | 7 | 20.9% | 16.4% | 2.2% | 5.57 | 4.61 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | 35 | 3 | 48 | 211 | 50 | 20 | 8 | 19.2% | 10.4% | 4.0% | 5.48 | 4.97 | -0.0 |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | 11 | 0 | 11 | 56 | 11 | 15 | 2 | 17.3% | 28.1% | 3.9% | 7.36 | 7.35 | -0.3 |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | 10 | 0 | 12 | 48 | 7 | 6 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.86 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | LAA | 9 | — | 9 | 39 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 23.1% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.45 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | LAA | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 23.0% | 10.1% | 3.1% | 4.48 | 4.50 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 92 | 33 | 206 | 950 | 182 | 146 | 26 | 19.2% | 15.3% | 2.7% | 5.16 | 4.93 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 89 | 32 | 200 | 922 | 177 | 142 | 25 | 19.2% | 15.3% | 2.7% | 5.16 | 4.93 | +0.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Aaron Hernandez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.45 | 23.1% | 10.0% | 3.0% | — | 4.50 | 23.0% | 12.9% | 20 | +0.05 | — | — | — |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | .241 | 3.99 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.34 | 3.47 | 149 | 84 |
| Cody Hall R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.95 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 3.4% | .299 | 3.92 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 19 | -0.03 | 3.51 | 134 | 83 |
| David Hernandez R 2027 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 82 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.47 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.57 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.10 | 2.59 | 137 | 82 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.75 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 3.12 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.63 | 2.31 | 187 | 81 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2027 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 80 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.52 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .283 | 3.61 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | +0.09 | 3.17 | 272 | 79 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 160 | 79 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.10 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 253 | 78 |
| Michael Dimock R 2025 · 3.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.39 | 23.5% | 10.7% | 1.7% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 166 | 78 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.03 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 2.9% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.65 | 2.38 | 160 | 77 |
| Joe Colón J R 2024 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 77 |
| Marc Magliaro R 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.01 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 125 | 76 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 76 |
| Grant Sides R 2027 · 3.31 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.31 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 1.5% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.31 | 159 | 76 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.72 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.6% | .287 | 3.88 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 129 | 76 |
| J.J. Hoover R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.26 | 27.4% | 12.7% | 3.4% | .360 | 6.40 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 96 | +2.14 | 4.26 | 258 | 76 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2027 · 5.16 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.16 | 18.6% | 7.6% | 4.9% | .373 | 3.54 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 93 | -1.62 | 3.45 | 170 | 76 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 75 |
| Alex Powers R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.22 | 25.0% | 10.3% | 3.5% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 264 | 75 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.