Aaron Hernandez
P
Rocket City Trash Pandas
Age 29
RHP
6'1" / 170 lbs
AA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 6 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 102
ERA4.45
FIP4.45
K%23.1%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%13.1%
ROS IP6
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Inland Empire 66ers | 20 | 15 | 73 | 336 | 81 | 46 | 6 | 75% | 3.6 | 18.6% | 15.7% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 4.46 | 4.92 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Inland Empire 66ers | 20 | 15 | 73 | 336 | 81 | 46 | 6 | 75% | 3.6 | 24.1% | 13.7% | 10.4% | 1.8% | 4.46 | 3.84 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 15 | 63 | 299 | 78 | 44 | 7 | 94% | 3.9 | 20.9% | 16.4% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 5.57 | 4.45 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 15 | 63 | 299 | 78 | 44 | 7 | 94% | 3.9 | 26.1% | 14.7% | 11.4% | 2.3% | 5.57 | 4.16 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | 35 | 3 | 48 | 211 | 50 | 20 | 8 | 9% | 1.4 | 19.2% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 3.6% | 5.48 | 4.78 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | 35 | 3 | 48 | 211 | 50 | 20 | 8 | 9% | 1.4 | 23.7% | 9.5% | 14.2% | 3.8% | 5.48 | 4.44 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | 11 | 0 | 11 | 56 | 11 | 15 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.3% | 28.1% | -10.8% | 3.9% | 7.36 | 7.35 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | 11 | 0 | 11 | 56 | 11 | 15 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.6% | 26.8% | -7.1% | 3.6% | 7.36 | 7.55 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 10 | 0 | 12 | 48 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 14.6% | 12.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.86 | 4.60 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 10 | 0 | 12 | 48 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 14.6% | 12.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.86 | 4.56 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | LAA | 6 | 0 | 6 | 27 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 10.0% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.45 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | LAA | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 10.3% | 12.6% | 3.2% | 4.55 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | LAA | 6 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.8% | 10.3% | 12.6% | 3.2% | 4.55 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 6 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.8% | 10.3% | 12.6% | 3.2% | 4.55 | 4.24 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 192 | 96 | 32 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 10.3% | 12.6% | 3.2% | 4.55 | 4.24 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 92 | 33 | 206 | 950 | 182 | 146 | 25 | 36% | 2.2 | 19.2% | 15.3% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 5.16 | 4.87 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 89 | 32 | 200 | 922 | 177 | 141 | 24 | 36% | 2.2 | 19.2% | 15.3% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 5.16 | 4.87 | +1.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Aaron Hernandez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.45 | 23.1% | 10.0% | 3.0% | — | 4.62 | 22.8% | 12.6% | 20 | +0.17 | — | — | — |
| Esmil Rogers R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 72 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.76 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 2.99 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.77 | 2.22 | 187 | 71 |
| Tim Dillard R 2029 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 69 |
| Bud Norris R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 69 |
| Mayckol Guaipe R 2025 · 3.74 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.74 | 26.0% | 7.6% | 3.4% | .432 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.88 | 136 | 68 |
| Steve Johnson R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.30 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 3.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 152 | 68 |
| Carlos Frías R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.59 | 16.9% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .369 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 204 | 68 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.42 | 21.8% | 7.5% | 4.0% | .328 | 4.58 | 17.7% | 9.5% | 136 | +0.16 | 2.32 | 676 | 67 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2028 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 67 |
| Alex Powers R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.01 | 25.0% | 10.3% | 3.1% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.80 | 264 | 66 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 66 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.19 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 3.2% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.81 | 2.38 | 160 | 66 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 65 |
| Ramon Delgado R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.73 | 13.8% | 5.9% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.45 | 11.2% | 7.2% | 74 | -0.28 | 4.45 | 135 | 65 |
| Dinelson Lamet R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.82 | 27.3% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .339 | 4.62 | 20.9% | 7.7% | 176 | +0.80 | 2.21 | 778 | 65 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.28 | 18.7% | 5.5% | 3.8% | .333 | 3.66 | 27.2% | 18.8% | 45 | -0.62 | 3.66 | 348 | 64 |
| André Rienzo R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.33 | 18.9% | 15.6% | 1.5% | .301 | 5.30 | 17.9% | 6.1% | 29 | +0.97 | 3.58 | 200 | 64 |
| Mike Wright Jr. R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.76 | 19.9% | 7.2% | 2.6% | .347 | 3.99 | 17.6% | 7.3% | 169 | +0.23 | 3.73 | 725 | 64 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2027 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 63 |
| Cody Hall R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.45 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 4.3% | .299 | 3.95 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 19 | -0.50 | 3.53 | 134 | 63 |